CURRENT MAPS

24 JAN 1030  EST     STARDATE    201201.24

There  is a famous scene and photograph from world war two where field Marshal Walter Model is talking to Hitler about the options left in the  Battle of the  Bulge   (a.k.a.   The Ardennes Offensive).  And in that conference   Model says to   Hitler…

” We must  face  the   facts   squarely  mein Furhrer …we   cannot force our way to the  Muese River. It is over”

That’s where  we  are right now.  Like the Ardennes Winter offensive of December 1944 …the cold weather or winter counteroffensive of 2012  is in serious trouble and is likely headed for total collapse and failure .    With the  Battle of the Bulge there are several important reasons for this–  the initial reaction of the American troops   along the   Our  River   and Elsenborn Ridge…  the inability to take   the key  town/ road junctions of  St Vith  until DEC 21  and  Bastogne which was  never  taken…  Just to name a few  reasons.

With regard to this particular winter   –or non winter depending on your point of view  –    the problems remain immense and the model depiction of how the pattern is going to evolve over the next 10 days has been really bad.    The   various    weather models  keep forecasting these sorts of significant developments of what the pattern is going to look several days down the road .   Yet  when that time  arrives and we compare the actual atmosphere to the forecast from six or eight days ago we see huge discrepancies .

Therefore if you are hoping  for…or anticipating a significant change in the overall pattern across North America and/ or the northern hemisphere which will bring about a stormy  and or colder  pattern for the eastern  CONUS…  well   you are in trouble.  It’s not going to happen . 

There  still remain  a decent possibility of a significant winter storm at some point in February or March for the eastern U.S. and especially the East Coast.  But in terms of a prolonged pattern    flip  or change?   NO. 

In the last discussion I wrote   (  BIG BERTHA   and the BUTT   SISTERS)     I tried to walk a fine line between optimism and reality.  There have been several false signals  given off by both the European and the GFS models during the past several weeks which seem to be indicating the pattern was about the  switch.  But I   also emphasized that despite repeated attempts by various models to accurately forecast  the AO and the NAO   to go negative….  In every case the models have turn out to be disastrously wrong.  Only twice since the beginning of autumn has  the AO and the  NAO  dropped into negative territory but that is not what we seen from the various weather models time after time after time over the past several weeks.

There is simply no other  way to say this.    The GFS  European and Canadian models…  Both with respect to the operational and  the ensemble  — have been  wrong.  As an extremely wrong.     As in  ” without a clue”.

Invariably   when  the models begin to see that things are not turning out as earlier forecasted they come up with a new solution after adjusting the pattern and delaying the cold.

For example  this image compares  the  European   Model / ensemble  from JAN 18  valid day 6…   to  TODAY  Jan 24.   

A quick glance would show that the day 6 European model has verified pretty well when compared to what the atmosphere actual looks like over the northern hemisphere today January 24.  But there is an important difference and that has to do with the key feature I talked about on January 18… which was the development of   New   Vortex over the Sea of Japan.  It was this feature on the  JAN18   European model at day6  that  was  suppose  to start  the entire pattern change.  However if we look at the current image  we see this   Vortex  is  NOT anywhere near the Sea of Japan…  It over the north side of Siberia almost in the arctic regions.

This has huge implications for the entire pattern.

Indeed  if we look at the   European model  ensemble   from JAN18   valid  at day 10…  And compare it to the    JAN  24   0z  European model for   JAN 28-29 … The differences are quite significant.

The   European  ensemble   at day  10  from  Jan 18… valid for the 28th …  Showed a very large powerful new vortex  centered  over the Sea of Japan.  The updated version of the European  model    valid for the 29th of January does NOT  show that  this feature at all!  There is   NO  deep close 500 low anywhere near the Sea of Japan ….so the entire pattern is fundamentally changed and the development of  the colder wintry pattern for North America does not exist.   Instead we have of new deep vortex over the north side of Alaska which is where is been for most of the winter and is the proverbial kiss of death for getting any sort of sustained cold winter patterns in the eastern half of the U.S.

Its Over.

Looking at day 10… valid FEB 3  …  We see more the same sort of thing.  The   PV  is centered over the western side of the arctic region barely reaching into the western hemisphere.  All the truly cold air is located on the Pacific side of the arctic circle not on the Canadian side.  This is simply the wrong location   for the PV  to be located IF you are trying to get the pattern to change over the eastern half of North America.

What a god awful nightmare…  If you like a winter weather in the eastern U.S.

Even if we try and project or hold for something to change down the road we  run into problems.  The general trend of the Arctic Oscillation   ( the  AO)  is moving back towards a neutral and is no longer dropping into the negative territory.   WHY?   Because the PV that was in the gulf Alaska and heelped  bring about the Seattle and Pacific Northwest snow and ice storm did  NOT move   east into western or Central Canada  ( like the Models    forecasted).     Instead it has reformed on the north side of Alaska where it  has  been for most of this winter…  which really is  + AO position.

Even the    negative trend in the NAO has halted and  the GFS  ensemble    show the NAO   levelling off at Neutral.     Again go back and reread what the model data and the trends are showing on January 18.     This was not   the way things supposed to be evolving .

And if you are a professional meteorologist and you cannot see this   then   you are  trying   to sell somebody something  or  you are  delusional.

And really  the pattern does not change much  no matter  what we look at with respect to any particular model.  For example here is the day 10 GFS  — the 0z run–   ensmeble mean.  We have a moderate sized trough in the east a little bit of a ridge  on the West Coast…  which  by the way  the European model does not have…  The dark purple areas clearly show  2  PVs  located on the Pacific side of the arctic circle .  Another words although really serious cold air is located on the long side of the world to get a sustained cold pattern to develop in North America

  *****     It is hard to understate how   damaging it is with respect to the pattern the evolving into  a  cold one over the eastern half of North America and the U.S.  with a huge vortex of centered over Alaska or snow on the western side of the arctic circle.  ****

If we look at say the  8-14 day   reforecast model from  ESRL …  The pink areas clearly show some sort of  -NAO   but the pronounced and very noticeable dark Blue  areas over Northern Alaska is  STILL   there and shows no signs of moving.  What this feature does is essentially cause the Pacific jet to become very strong…  And therefore  there   can be no  sort  of  pattern a amplification over the  eastern pacific / west coast of North America   ( NO +PNA  and distinct tendency to get a – PNA).

One last  note: if we do  in fact keep  and  hold   the -NAO   into   a good portion of   FEB … then  it still  might  be possible to  get  a surprise a snowstorm for the  northeast US  of the some magnitude.  By surprise I am talking about relative terms — inother words it might be something that 10 days out looks like nothing and then in the last 72 hours things change into a moderate or significant snowstorm for the northeast U.S.    In order get something like this to happen there would have to be some sort of pattern amplification occurring on the West Coast   – a ridge over    western US / Canada–   that would cause a  short wave to  dig much further to the south resulting in some sort a cyclogenesis over the southeast U.S.

2330  EST  18 JAN   …. STARDATE   201201.18

I love forecasting snowstorms  in the Pacific Northwest.    It doesn’t happen very often  but   when it does  happen… is really quite interesting and very different from what we get in the northeast US.  Back in the winter of 2006-7  or  2007-8    a really great pattern set up for the Pacific Northwest around Christmas time and that  region  got   hammered with significant snow and ice storms –even  Christmas Day in Seattle and Portland and much of the northwest.  My experience over the past few decades has been that if you are not getting the Pacific Northwest right   –the West Coast and general but especially the Pacific Northwest– than the rest   of your  forecast is going to suck Moose  balls.

I am not going to spend a lot of time talking about the moderate snow event which is likely to move through portions of the upper Midwest the Great Lakes and the interior of the Northeast US  on JAN  20-21.  In fact if this was a regular winter this should be a pretty ordinary event and not get any intention are all.  Essentially what happens is that a wave of   Low pressure develops on the front as the large cold high over the north these slides off  the Maine  coast.  The Low tracks   into  WVA  then    through PA.  It’s a pretty weak system and a dozen have a lot of moisture with it and it’s moving pretty fast.  Still for the snow lovers  in the NE…  some snow for folks in the Northeast is better  than NO snow.
Now I know many of you in the eastern U.S. and especially in the northeast are probably shrieking or thinking    “Hey   DT  you  ignorant geek … who  Gives  a rat ass  about  the  the   Pacific Northwest?…”     If you are asking that question or thinking those thoughts…  then you’ve got a problem because you  are missing something really important about this particular snowstorm.    Not so much  about   the Pacific NW   snowstorm  per se… but  what is causing it …the implications for the entire pattern as  we  move into  February.  So pay attention there   sparky and let me tell you how Big Bertha  and her huge Butt plays into this whole thing .
By now I am sure  some of you have heard or read about the potential for significantly different pattern setting up  over  the next two weeks so that February and perhaps March 2012  end up being colder than normal or… at least  the threat or the possibility of it being colder  than normal over the eastern CONUS .    There are strong indications are  this MIGHT     happen but we have to be careful here.  We  have been  down this road a couple times before…  and every time we have gotten close or looks like the pattern is starting to change… it  turns to     Moose  Crap.    So if you have your snow boggles on and you all excited because somebody in Pennsylvania or in New England is telling you that this time it’s really really really gonna happen…  be careful.

A word to the wise.  Saying the same thing over and over and over again… or in this case forecasting the pattern change the pattern change the pattern change…  only to see the pattern finally change…  is not REALLY  forecasting weather.   What you are doing is saying the same bullshit  over and over  and over.   In other words if your  forecasting skills in the extended and long range   have been really good  in the last two winters…  But now you seem to have trouble figure out was going to happen and when / IF the pattern change is going to occur…    that  is  probably a clue  you are  doing something wrong.
This first image shows us the long  terms trends  of the NAO and the AO since September. 

 As you can see from the image it is readily apparent  that the NAO and AO have only drop into the negative territory twice since the up SEPT 15 !!!    But more importantly since December there had been a several tries or surges where both the  NAO and the AO have reached the Neutral Line  — which I have  Number as  you can see.   And every case the model data showing the AO or the NAO   would  drop to  negative territory but in every instance  -  EVERY    INSTANCE–      both the  AO and the NAO bounced back up strongly into positive territory and all of the model data turned out to be disastrously wrong.      So again if you’re absolutely certain that the pattern to  turn around  and that it is  going to  turn out  to be a great February and March 2012… BE  CAREFUL.  The trend here is not your friend.  Of course that’s not to say the trend can not be broken but it does need to be respected .

BIG  BERTHA…
This next image shows the overall pattern back on January 15.   As you can see from the image itself I’ve highlighted the massive explosion in the WPO  as a turn negative and built a huge rage into the Bering sea….  and Alaska…  that expanded all the way into the western and Asian  side of the Arctic circle.   This  explosiove   Ridge developemnt  was caused primarily by the stratospheric warming event.  Also keep in mind that when the models of first detected this development   –  back in late DEC and  early JAN– most of them showed this would lead to a much colder middle and the latter January…  Which as we  all now know…  did NOT  happen.    Instead… the huge Ridge in the Bering sea and the western side of the Arctic circle moved into eastern Siberia.    This in turn allow the polar vortex to move into western Canada and eventually into the Gulf Alaska were it is currently  situated.  It was this very movement of the  PV which is  WHY the arctic air came pouring over the Rockies in the continental divide into the Pacific Northwest and the Seattle Portland metro areas!!!   

But more importantly is how the pattern slowly evolves.  This next image shows the  72  hr — 12z  JAN 18  run-   valid  JAN 21.  I  have highlighted the individual disturbances or impulses and Pacific jet stream and you can clearly see the amazingly cold bitter arctic air mass over Northern Canada  that is associated with this  super   positive  AO.    This is one of the reasons why having such a strongly positive arctic oscillation is so bad for those wanting winter storms over the central or eastern CONUS.  As you look at this image    you can  clearly see   that  in this sort of  flow there  is very little way to get that cold air to come southward .

96 HRS ECMWF…  We can see a new development which is a  core  or center of the  PV reemerging or developing over anchorage or in the Gulf of Alaska.  Meanwhile more strong impulse is a batter the West Coast move across the Rockies into the planes bringing in much milder air

120 HR  ECMWF   VALID   JAN 23…  In this image I have highlighted the upper air map at 500 MB  and the  SURFACE map.  The piece of energy in the central Plains   develops into a significant winter storm for the Great Lakes which pulls up a lot of warm air into the northeast U.S.  Chicago   COULD have another  significant snowstorm however.   More importantly however it is this buildup of warm air along the East Coast which is driven northward into the high latitudes and forces the Heights to rapidly warm or increase over Eastern Canada.  Sometimes is buildup of warm air and increasing Heights can cause the NAO   to flip especially when it’s followed by several surges of warm air from the eastern U.S. into  eastern and southeastern Canada.

That is exactly what happens over the JAN  24-25-26   time frame.

This  image is a hemispheric shot of the European model at   DAY 6 .. JAN 24 .  I  have highlighted some important features which are occurring at this time over the hemisphere.  The most important  is  feature  #1 which shows a another Ridge exploding northward into the arctic regions from the northern Pacific however this is significantly different than what we saw back on January 14-15.  That ridge   exploded northward over the Bering sea and we did not have a PV  (Polar Vortex)   in the gulf Alaska  which will  likely have   JAN 24-25.     This  Ridge develops over eastern Siberia…  because of the new vortex which forms over the Sea of Japan.  The development of a deep vortex / 500 Low  in the Sea of Japan is  text book teleconnection for a much colder pattern over the eastern U.S.    

   ASSUMING   this is correct   the Ridge in Eastern   Siberia will begin to drive the  PV in the gulf Alaska…  to the   east into Western Canada which begins to alter the entire pattern.

At Day 7  JAN 25…  The Great Lakes Low is now over southeastern Canada but it’s still feeding up warm air into southeastern Canada.  However right behind that we see a major trough amplification over the entire Plains  and the Midwest   ( see  THICK  BLACK Line).  This forces another surge of very warm air into the East Coast.    Meanwhile over the West Coast and the eastern  north Pacific   the  Gulf of Alaska  PV is being driven east   while a  ridge is beginning to form off the California Coast.

DAY 8 …    Again I have  matched up  the upper air map at 500 Mb with the surface  map   so YOU  can follow how things develop.  The new  trough over the Mississippi Valley has caused   a surface Low to form over Alabama…  while warm air surges from the Deep south all the way into the Northeast U.S.     Again I cannot stress how important this warm areas with respect to feeding the developing  or  Building   500 Mb heights over  eastern  Canada …  Which in turn brings about the face change in the   NAO.  So even though I know winter weather lovers in the eastern U.S.  will hate these warm temperatures the two serve a purpose! 

In this next image DAY 9 …  We can compare the European vs. the GFS from a hemispheric perspective.  Both models or a remarkably good agreement as  they  BOTH  show the PV in the gulf Alaska…  They both show some sort of Ridge trying to form off the Southern California Coast in the eastern Pacific…  And they both show some sort of building or increasing Heights over Eastern Canada.

By DAY 10   –lets  use the   EURO ENSEMBLE 500 mb maps – the changes are underway big time.  Big Bertha has now left the gulf Alaska…  or rather is leaving the gulf Alaska and sliding into Canada.  It’s doing so because of the developing ridge  over the Bering sea and eastern Siberia.  In addition the Heights are rising rapidly over Eastern Canada and southern Greenland which indicates the possible development of a -NAO.

The 12z GFS  ensemble – JAN 18 run — strongly agrees with this overall development of the pattern.  In this image we can see the 6-10 day    500 MB  height  CHANGES.  This is useful in showing us where things are trending..  We can see a very strong negative anomaly over the gulf Alaska  which is the strong Polar Vortex.         But we can also see the Heights beginning to increase over Eastern Canada.

Looking at the same product but now for the 11 to 15 day…  We see major changes.  The GFS  ensemble shows the vortex that was in the gulf Alaska  has now shifted east into western or  Central Canada.  The Heights are rapidly building in the Gulf of Alaska and we see increasing Heights over Greenland as part of a  -NAO.

 
If we look at the  12z GFS  ensemble itself   — the 500 mb  mean –  at   DAY10…  We can see a very close match to what the European ensemble model is showing.  Note the strong vortex over the Sea of Japan!     Note the    ridge over   far eastern  Siberia and the Aleutian islands…  And notice the  dark purple the long date and shading extending from North Central Canada down  to NW Ontario Canada.  This tells me that the model is showing the  PV is splitting apart or redeveloping.

312  HR  the 12z   GFS  Ensemble has evolve into a completely different and full blown winter pattern over the north American continent.  As I have highlighted here…  There is a new deep  PV  over the Sea of Japan…  A very strong Ridge e over the Bering sea and  new PV   with 2 centers: one over  far N  central  Canada  and the  otther over  James bay .  If we accept this model as verbatim or being fairly close to the truth…  We now have a raging +PNA  pattern  a   – AO   a  – NAO and the eastern U.S. is now in business for February winter storms.

WHAT CAN GO WRONG? 

This is probably the most important part of the whole discussion given what’s happened this winter.  There are so many things that could go wrong with this sequence of events as shown by the weather models.  But it’s important to do this because you don’t want  get caught up in the mental loop  or  trap of believing that the pattern change HAS  to occur because the weather models say it has to occur.

1) the development of the deep   500 Low that becomes a new polar vortex feature in the Sea of Japan.  If this feature does not develop   THEN the entire pattern change will fall into a pile of  Moose    crap.      It is this feature which causes the Ridge to develop over eastern Siberia and the Bering sea.  If there is no big  500  mb Low  in the sea Japan in the last few days of January then   the ridge  will act  TOTALLY different…  And it will not cause the changes to occur across North America.

2)  this is related to  #1  above.   Suppose the   PV in the Gulf of Alaska it does not move.  Say goodbye to the pattern change.

3)  THE  WARMTH  over the   eastern  US does NOT   reach into   eastern  Canada …  Which in turn would mean a much weaker  -NAO.  Or it might only force the NAO   to go to briefly neutral…  which as I stated at the beginning of this essay  has been the trend all winter long.

1500  EST  JAN 21   JAN 2010….   STARDATE  201201.12

There is really no other way to say this other then coming out and saying it.    My forecast– my scenario about how the second half the winter was going to evolve –is probably not going to be correct.    I am not going to come out here and tell you that I am going to get the overall 500 MB pattern correct like  whats his name does over at wxbutt .  Wrong is wrong.  I am very likely going to end up being quite wrong with regard to the second half of the winter and how things are going to develop.    There is no point in trying to a blow smoke in your face then tell you the air is clear.  One of the things I have learned from dealing with energy and grain traders over the years is that most of them can handle the idea that your seasonal or monthly forecast is going to turn out to be significantly different or the pattern change you have been forecasting is not going to work out sometimes.    What they don’t like is when someone tries to tell them that Up is Down or that Mild is Cold.   My experience has been that when you do that you will end up losing clients faster than Newt Gingrich’s popularity at a club for growth meeting.

What IS important when something like this happens is to figure out what you did wrong and lessons that that can be learned and absorbed for another day and another time.    Over the next 10 days the actual forecast looks pretty easy. First the strong arctic cold front comes through tomorrow…. There may be a clipper low which brings WVA VA NC MD some snow showers on the 15th…. A brief warm up the headm ahead of the next cold front on the 16th and 17th … Followed by another strong arctic front on thr 18th to the 20th.

What I am talking about here is how I anticipated the next 45 to 60 days to develop.    Now some are you are probably already saying    ”hey DT you crazy ignorant bastard… Maybe you are jumping the gun to early and giving up hope. Maybe the pattern will evolve as you thought earlier into it more bullish colder wintry pattern for the central and eastern Conus…”

Maybe. But that is not the way things works with me.

Look… If the pattern ends up turning colder and February and March but in a manner that differs significantly from what I have been talking about over the past 10 days…. It is unethical of me too suddenly assert Hey look at me I got it right after all”.       I dont   DO bullshit.

I don’t mind talking about my successes and I don’t mind talking about my failures.    One of the things that you will find here at WXRISK.COM is that I do both with equal intensity and focus. No matter how good you are … no matter how much on a roll you may be… You will eventually end up being wrong an disastrously wrong.    If you are afraid of being wrong stop forecasting weather and go sell shoes.

When I use to post over at easternus wx then over at American wx one of the issues I’d try to stress is that not all SSW  ( sudden stratospheric warming events)    are the same and they don’t always mean that the pattern is suddenly going to turn significantly colder and or snowier for the central and eastern CONUS.      Sure there is a tendency is that the happened but the correlation is not that strong.   A few years ago there was a pretty strong SSW event– I think it was in winter of 2005-6 — and there was a lot of gleeful anticipation that the SSW event would lead to a turn to a much colder and wintry pattern for the central and eastern CONUS. It did not.     To be sure the pattern DID change but NOT in a way that made a difference for actual weather conditions east of the Mississippi River.   I could make the argument here that the pattern is changing if one looks at the overall large scale features over the northern hemisphere.

But that’s just a disingenuous bull shit argument… and like I said I dont DO bullshit.

When I made the last post back on Jan 9….    I presented this map showing how the SSW –sudden stratospheric warming– was going to cause the jet stream to develop  a  massive Ridge over the northern Pacific that would expand through the Bering sea into eastern Siberia and Western Alaska… and reaching into the Arctic regions.

But at the time I also stated quite clearly that this sort   of  pattern development  is not a great pattern for the Midwest and East coast:    the development of the 500 MB ridge ( aka the -WPO)    that pushes into the arctic region often causes a equally strong negative 500 mb anomaly   (  A TROUGH!!)   — to form over western or southwestern Canada and Pacific Northwest  …. which is    really  a -PNA  .    My entire argument or forecast for the second half of the winter was premised on the idea that the RIDGE over the Bering sea would continue to drive into the arctic circle ( where it would becomne a Block) moving over or close to the north pole regions and expanding into northern Greenland. This in turn would force the NAO to move from very positive to Neutral to Negative and the combination of both of these features — the Block over the arctic regions and the developing positive 500 mb heights over Greenland– would force the entire Polar Vortex out of the arctic regions ( +AO) south into central Canada (-AO). Well that’s what I was thinking anyway.

However in the last update I also listed  under     the   “WHAT COULD WRONG”   department … that the developing Ridge over the Bering sea   might retrograde
( move west)    back into eastern Siberia…. and that such a  development    would of course destroyed my entire scenario.

BINGO.

It’s pretty clear from the last several model runs that yes the Bering Sea Ridge   IS  going  separate itself from the main flow   and will  become a block over the western arctic regions. But it  is also quite clear that this  Block  IS  going to move WEST  – not   east  or  Northeast —  west and that this retrogression is going to allow for deep trough / closed 500 mb Low to form in the gulf Alaska in the mean pattern.

Oddly enough the development of deep closed 500 mb Low in the gulf Alaska is identical to what we have been experiencing since the last week of November NOV.    So yes we probably will end up back were  started by the time we reach the last week of January.     Indeed the last few runs of the CF2v2.0 in week 3 and 4 … which had been showing a fairly cold pattern developing now shows a very mild and to January east the Mississippi River.

What  is really interesting is that when the pattern turn into CRAP back  in  mid and late  November it did so because of the development of a large 500 mb Low over eastern Siberia.    This feature was very prominent all maps and I talked about it    often   during NOV 10-DEC 15 period.   Having   big a deep closed 500 MB Low over Siberia is not in itself     the kiss of death per se.    BUT… there was also a large positive 500 MB height anomaly– a FLAT ridge– over the central portions of the North Pacific   and that   made things much worse.

The proximity of these two features fairly close to each other ensure that the Pacific jet velocities at 200 mb and 300 mb would be extremely strong    (at times reaching 200 knots)    and therefore would not be allowed to buckle or amplify.   Very strong jet streams like this are impossible to get to “buckle” or amplify and without that you can’t get a ridge on the West coast of North America.    This time around the stratospheric warming event caused a major amplification of the pattern… over Bering Sea and eastern Siberia!!!    In other words the EXACT same location on the globe. T   he fact that these two events 60 days apart developed in almost exact same location on the globe can not be a coincidence.

Some have speculated that the development of excessively deep heavy snow cover over eastern Siberia in combination with the Asian mountain Torque is the driving force here behind the repeating pattern. But that is a discussion for another day.  Besides if I get into that is gonna end of sound like a bunch of BS…

And like I said… I dont DO bullshit. Wrong is wrong…I am going to be wrong.

The only give saving grace here is that in this new pattern the temperature contrast between say Minneapolis and St. Louis…. between Boston and Richmond Virginia… could at times the quite extreme. I am not yet prepared to completely kill off the entire winter but I would not surprise me at all if this winter ends up being very close to 2001-02 or 1972-73.

0800  EST   9 JAN  2011… STARDATE   201201.9

The 6z the operational GFS this morning is developing some sort of coastal storm just after  day 10  for the Northeast US.  The model does not show a huge event but it definitely shows a secondary Low  developing in the arctic air and bringing a moderate to significant snowfall for the northeast U.S.  Mostly to the north a Washington, DC Baltimore area.

I do  NOT   like that solution for number   of  reasons and those reasons actually end up supporting the solution I talked about  over at   HARDCORE–JAN 7post.   To begin with the 6z GFS  ensemble  does NOT   support  the  6z operational GFS .  But more importantly with the GFS to showing is the development of a deep trough over the eastern U.S   day 9-10  as opposed to a broad U shaped trough  from the  European  AND  GFS  ensembles.

In addition  the GFS  develops this  deep  eastern  US trough  by forcing the NAO  to shift for more rapidly into a negative phase .  And that solution if you look at the overall pattern makes no sense.  Eventually I do believe the  NAO  is going to go negative   BUT   as long as the huge  Polar  Vortex  / +AO is still up across northern hudson’s bay and Baffin island …  That was features a large circulation will still keep Heights way below normal over Greenland …  Which of course precludes  a -NAO   development by day 9/ 10 .

Indeed if we take a look at the European model  and european Ensemble…  we see a much more reasonable solution especially given the persistent strength of the Pacific jet stream which has been a major aspect of this winter since the middle of November so far.      The operational European shows the huge block which is developing from the Bering  Sea  into the western half of the arctic region  ( called a  -WPO   by meteorologists and  Climatologists) .  That in turn is forcing  the PV / +AO  slowly southward  and   THAT movement of the  +AO  in turn is forcing the arctic air south in all directions… SOUTHWEST  …  DUE SOUTH  and  SOUTHEAST.    And THAT in turnn is forcing the   STJ  to the south as well.

This movement an overall solution to the pattern is strongly supported by  the  European ensemble

AND   GFS ensembles…  which all show the  same  sort of thing     day 8-9-10.