CURRENT MAPS

 
NORTH AMERICA WEATHER -      European  Model  turns  HOT   for 6-10  day and 11-15  as the Heat dome over the  Lower  Plains  EXPANDS  North and   east  into   central Plains and   Midwest by Day 10…  mean Trough  position  over  Western  US  to  hold…   keep in mind  3 times already this  Summer   Models have shown   “HEAT DOME”    to move into  heart of the  Midwest  and all  3 times   the dome has stayed  SOUTH….   .   

1000 EDT    14  JULY

The Wednesday 0z operational European model is showing a significantly different pattern than the 0z GFS and the 0z CMC. These models continue to develop a pretty powerful dome over the Plains and the Midwest in the 6-10 day. To the European begins to form a dome during this time frame.

The Canadian however develops a pretty serious trough over the northeast which keeps the dome centered over the Mississippi Valley of the plains states. That trough appears to be…according to the 0z Wed Canadian …. strong enough to keep most of the East coast (including Virginia) in a much cooler weather pattern and this would also affect the Ohio Valley as well.

The GFS shoves the dome in the Midwest SOUTH as the Model develops a weak cold front over the Great Lakes and Northern New England. The front presses south JULY 24-25-26 and brings about some showers and thunderstorms to the great lakes and the northeast. At this point it is impossible to say if the storms will reach Virginia. The Models keep the Dome over the Deep South … whiich again IF correct would bring in several days of U 90s and L 100s degree temperature readings.

The 0z Wednesday Europran continues to show the dome further south and any of the models. And because of the model has the dome so far to the south a pretty significant cold front moves into the upper plains and a good portion of the Midwest July 24-25 and into the Northeast July 26-27. The 0z Euro ensembles are not nearly as far south as the operational run.

No matter which of these possible solutions is correct the all show that the dome is either going to come due east from the Midwest region into the Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic states… or the dome gets shoved south … then comes east. There are of these possible so areas looks like a very hot last 10 days of July for the commonwealth…. a 3rd round of temps near or above 100 degrees seems a good bet.

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1100   EDT JULY  12

As I am sure most of you know it’s been a very hot summer throughout the commonwealth as well as the Middle Atlantic states and  in  fact the entire eastern third of the Conus.    June 2010 was the hottest or one of the hottest June months on record .    Minor drought conditions had begun to develop across the commonwealth and if the current hot and fairly dry pattern continues then it looks like the drought conditions will probably worsen as we go through the second half for July and into August .

　The weather models over the weekend and early this month morning continue to show the developing potential of a major heat dome for the Midwest and the Plains states developing in the 6 to 10 day period.    All the models are showing this dome and given that we are now in any rapidly developing an increasing LA NINA pattern this sort of pattern development is a supported by the overall seasonal trend .

But beyond that this new pattern has significant implications for Virginia and the the entire Middle Atlantic region.

JULY 16-17-18.

 This looks like a warm weekend pretty typical for what will see in mid July with temperatures likely range in the low to mid 90s across the entire commonwealth. A cold front attached to a fairly strong area of Low-pressure and Eastern Canada will move through the big cities of the East coast Saturday night or Sunday.  This front should be strong enough to provide significant showers and thunderstorms to much of the commonwealth as well as the big cities of I -95.

This cold front will be followed by another fairly vigorous cold front moving through the NE Conus JULY 20-21. It is during this period that the heat dome over the southwest states will begin to slide east expanding into the Central and Lower Plains and into the Midwest BY DAY 9-10…. JULY 21-22.

JULY 23-24-25

The entire forecast for this weekend for Virginia… as well as MD DE WVA and NC…. depends on the development and the position of this massive Dome in the Jet stream that all of the weather models are currently developing over the Plains and the Midwest after July 20.  The day 10  ECMWF   0z  run….  has this Dome centered over the Midwest and the Delta. There is a weak trough off the New England Coast and the model makes it clear that the dome is rapidly building into Western Virginia western NC and into the Lower Ohio valley.

If this sceanrio is right VA could see its 3rd round of 100+ degree temps starting in this weekend . The heat may Not make it past DCA or BWI as the models all keep a weak trough over New England.

This would bring back eight another significant interval of 100° plus temperatures

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7   JULY 1100  EDT

I am not going to comment about the heat this week anymore since story out there since it is out there anybody is now talking about the extreme heat over the Middle Atlantic region . However here at WXRISDK.COM… Where the focus is day 3 to day 30 this heat wave is essentially over.

The models this morning are not any clearer with regard to this weekend forecast    JULY 9-10-11

The Issue is whether or not the cold front which arrives on July 9 is going to clear the East coast in time to save most or a part of the weekend OR whether the front will get hung up along the East coast for most of the week end.

JULY   16-17-18

Weather models continue to show a message a system developing over southwest Canada next week which will track due east a cross or just to the north of the USA Canada border. This major Low will track through Quebec and drags its cold fromnt through the Midwest and into the East Coast late on July 15 or the 16th.

If the current weather models are to be believed… this front will drive steadily off the East coast in the first half of the weekend. This would allow for a cooler air mass to come in and fairly dry conditions for the second half the weekend.

When you get into July and early August… One has to be skeptical of weather models developing ery strong and deep troughs which moves these cold fronts rapidly across the Midwest and the East coast.

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5 JULY   1000 EDT

These first couple of days of July had been spectacular over the eastern Conus with this large surface High dropping southeast from the  Great Lakes towards the Middle Atlantic Coast. The lower temperatures and humidity even reach down as far as northern and cerntral FL.

But as I mentioned last week that  is now changing.    Sunday’s max temps surged  into the M and U 90s from Boston to Southern Virginia…. as the dome is beginning to develop.  The heat will reach maximum intensity tomorrow July 6 and Wednesday July 7.   The hottest temperature ever recorded in Central Virginia/ Richmond was 107 setback in the summer of 1918 and the hottest temperature ever recorded in July was 105° also set back in the summer of 1977.     I think we have a chance to tie one of those records this week. As I said last week …the intense heat will not just affect VA but extend into NC and into all the big cities of the I-95 corridor.

JULY 9-10-11
The MAIN issue for this coming weekend for VA and all of the Middle Atlantic region will be the approaching cold front.    The European model delays the cold front until JULY 10 whereas the GFS and CMC (Canadian) Models move the front into the northeast by July 9.    There is some question as to how much shower and thunderstorm activity this cold front will have as it moves into the East Coast…. but it will end the heat.

If the cold front drives steadily off the coast Saturday and Sunday should be pretty decent days.    Much cooler…. and fairly but not Totally dry.    The closer you to the Chesapeake Bay … the northern outer banks of NC as well as the delamrva region… the more likely that the cloud cover will stay pretty heavy and the shower and thunderstorm threat will be a bit stronger.

JULY 16-17-18

The weather models are continuing to show a very active pattern over the Pacific Northwest Western Canada and South Central Canada. Those areas are in trouble with regard to getting their crops planted as it’s been so wet and Sunday that farmers in that portion of North America are running way behind normal with respect to typical planting conditions/ progress.

The models are showing another major system moving across South Central Canada JULY 14-15-16.   This strong Low will probably have a fairly strong cold front associate with it which will move into the northeast at some some portion of the weekend.    Right now the odds are pretty good that this weekend is gonna be a fairly wet one across a good portion of the commonwealth.

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1100 EDT    JUNE  28  

This updated Forecast discussion is now being placed in the GENERAL weather section in addition to the Virginia weather section because the threat for MAJOR …possibly even a historic Heat Wave for the Middle Atlantic region is increasing. It also appears to be spreading into the lower portions of the Ohio Valley— aka the southern ECB – the Tennessee Valley and the Deep South.

Surprisingly the THREAT or the potential for seeing this sort of serious heat for several days in these areas is getting very little attention. I am afraid that is because there seems to be an over emphasis on the GFS and the GFS ensemble. This makes it less sense when one considers the unbelievabley BAD models performance by the operational GFS and the GFS ensemble with regard to hurricane Alex.

As we can see from this particular Image of the 6/30 run of 0z GFS for JULY 6-7-8 … The model that keeps the trough over the plains states moving straight through the Midwest. This ensures that there is no significant ridge in or dome that forms over the eastern Conus in any way shape or form.    Really this is a CHICKEN vs EGG question. If we had a strong ridge over the eastern Conus the trough to slow down.. and temps would soar.

Here is the 0z  6/30   run of   the  operational European model from early this morning .    At 500 MB we can clearly see the model continuing to form a very strong dome over the Middle Atlantic states and the Dark red shading shows 850 temperatures of +24c to +27c… which translates at the surface to temperatures well above 100°. Keep in Mind that here in Central Virginia we have already several days with temperatures above 100°.

These maps in ages shows the forecasted Max temperatures for our day afternoon of July 5 July 6 July 7 July 8 and July 9. The band of 100 plus degree temperatures is quite impressive and as you can see that there are two large areas of 105-110° over a portion of the commonwealth on July 6 and over VA into North central NC and over western TN and southeast MO on July 7.

Just in case you were wondering the record high temperature for the month of July in the city of Richmond is 105° which was set back on July 6, 1977.

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1100   EDT   JUNE  28

Now that I taken a week off because of my summer vacation … it is now s time to go back to work and figure out the weekend SUMMER forecasts for the commonwealth. Today will probably be the third day in the last five or temperatures reached over 100°here in Central Virginia. The cold front which is going to ride on the 30th will certainly be a welcome relief and it will ensure that the upcoming July 4 weekend will be spectacular. Friday, July 2 and Saturday, July 3 will feature and seasonal temperatures with low humidities an absolutely no friend of any sort of rain whatsoever.

Temperatures will begin to warm up of course by July 4 but this will be a great weekend so you should get out and enjoy it if you can.

However, that a weekend where facing a very interesting meteorological dilemma because the European and the gfs weather models are forecasting very different scenario as for the entire eastern Conus …. In the Middle Atlantic region …. For the period from July 5 to July 9.

Both weather models move the deep trough over the east coast out into the western Atlantic by July 4. This forces the large cool area of high pressure over the eastern Conus to move off the coast as well. In response for the trough moving off the east coast the strong ridge over the Rockies and the Plains rapidly expands the east.

The European models developing a heat dome over the eastern third of the Conus. The GFS does not.

Both models agree that another major trough will come out of Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest during the July 4 weekend which will track through the northern Rockies and into the Upper Plains by July 4. This front will undoubtedly bring widespread significant rain to the the Plains and the Upper Mississippi valley and some of the ramains /moisture of Alex will undoubtedly get pulled into the cold front so the rainfall amounts over the central Plains & the Mississippi Valley could be impressive.

The 0z Monday 6/28 run of the GFS moving right through the Midwest because the the model has no ridging or dome forming over the east coast . The Euro shows and a massive heat wave developing with temperatures rising above 100°over much of the Middle Atlantic states including the big cities of the northeast with the heat expanding into the Ohio Valley the Tennessee Valley into the Carolinas and the Deep South .

They will be interesting to follow this and see which of these very different solutions will be correct.