1105 APRIL 28
Back in early April the Middle Atlantic states experienced and three days of pretty warm temperatures… Upper 80s to L 90s. However South Central Virginia including Richmond and historic did see temperatures into the middle 90S on April 6 and 7.
APRIL 30- MAY 1- MAY 2
It looks like we are going to see that sort of Heat again come this weekend as the models are stronger and higher with the impressive ridge in the Jet stream that develops over the eastern third of the nation. The Wednesday run of the 0z European model shows that the temperatures could reach 95° on Sunday and Monday– MAY 2-3. Not surprisingly the 0z GFS does not have that much heat because of its natural cold bias and also because it is a lot faster with the cold front on May 2 moving through the Midwest into the East Coast. Since the models faster with the front it has a lot more clouds which of course this time a year old is going to greatly restrict temperatures.
And given the overall pattern and that most of the GFS and Euro ensemble data is depicting it is pretty clear to me that the cold front is not gonna reach the east coast until Monday MAY 3rd at the earliest… And may not reach eastern VA eastern MD eastern NC until late Monday night.
Of course if temperatures to reach the middle 90s it is possible that when the cold font does arrives some of the thunderstorms accompanying the frontal passage could be strong a severe. However right now this does not look like a classic Spring season severe weather event .
MAY 7 – 8 – 9
For the second forecast weekend of MAY 7-8-9 the data shows a fairly dry and warm weekend. However there is significant uncertainty or a variable that we have to deal with first. 13 figure this out will have a very good idea of what the weekend of May 7-9-9… will be like.
The pattern repeats itself because a another strong trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and the Central California Coast MAY 4-5. This trough moves into the plains and rides a surface cold front into the central plains and the Midwest MAY 6-7. Again because the overall pattern we are going to be facing a fairly strong ridge over the southeastern states which means that this cold front is also likely to slow down or stall over the Lower Plains- TN Valley — and into the Middle Atlantic region.
As a result the second weekend –MAY 7-8-9 is looking fairly wet across a large portion of the Midwest and the Middle Atlantic states. Based upon the data it looks like that of the three days May 9 would be the driest.
1110 EDT APRIL 26
All last week I suggested that most of this just past weekend -APRIL 23-24-25 would be rain free for central and Southern Virginia and that the warm front would only bring significant rains Friday night and Saturday over northern into the DC area and over the northern neck.
As we now know that is exactly what happened. Except for few early morning sprinkles Saturday AM the warm front pass through most of the commonwealth without any significant rain. The warm front stalled across NW … northern and northeast VA. To be sure there were lots of clouds around the for the most part the rains did not affect most of the commonwealth.
I was concerned that there could be significant showers and thunderstorms across most of a state Saturday night into Sunday morning… but theses storm did not develop. The large low pressure area over the Midwest was stronger and deeper than forecasted which affected the overall pattern across the Middle Atlantic region. Most of this past Sunday was generally cloudy and warm except for the Piedmont with the sun not breaking out until the afternoon hours. By then of course it was too late for any sort of significant shower and thunderstorm activity to develop.
That big low over the Ohio Valley will be moving into Pennsylvania by this evening. It’s associated cold front will drive into the Middle Atlantic states and will probably will see some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across the commonwealth . Not a huge outbreak butter will be dry either .
APRIL 30-MAY 1-MAY 2.
The pattern for this coming weekend along the east coast and especially the Middle Atlantic states will be strongly determined by the developing powerful large scale trough in the jet stream that forms this week over the West coast and the northern & central Rockies.
In response to this massive trough the atmosphere will develop a very strong ridge over the Deep South which will build only into New England by this weekend. As a result the deep trough over the western Conus will only be able to push into the Plains and the Midwest. The surface cold front will stall while strong southerly winds feed moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the stalled Midwest front.
However for the Middle Atlantic region and especially for the commonwealth the strong ridge over the East coast will ensure that this is going to be a VERY WARM and dry weekend. Friday temperatures will reach into the Low 80s over the southern half of the commonwealth. Saturday and Sunday will see readings in at least the M 80s across the southern half of the state and 78-83 over the northern half of the commonwealth. And it looks like most of the region will be dry all three days .
Eventually of course the cold front from the Midwest will reach the Middle Atlantic states but that probably won’t be until May 4 or May 5.
1) shut off the parade of storms coming in from the Pacific. Thus the central portions of the nation would turn drier .
2) The eastern US would turn much colder in this weekend of MAY 7-8-9 .
As you can see these two models are diametrically opposed to each other. Given the overall pattern I am inclined to go there with the European especially given that the Canadian model looks very much like the European model.