Posted by wxrisk | Uncategorized | Wednesday 14 July 2010 10:55 am

1000 EDT    14  JULY

The Wednesday 0z operational European model is showing a significantly different pattern than the 0z GFS and the 0z CMC. These models continue to develop a pretty powerful dome over the Plains and the Midwest in the 6-10 day. To the European begins to form a dome during this time frame.

The Canadian however develops a pretty serious trough over the northeast which keeps the dome centered over the Mississippi Valley of the plains states. That trough appears to be…according to the 0z Wed Canadian …. strong enough to keep most of the East coast (including Virginia) in a much cooler weather pattern and this would also affect the Ohio Valley as well.

The GFS shoves the dome in the Midwest SOUTH as the Model develops a weak cold front over the Great Lakes and Northern New England. The front presses south JULY 24-25-26 and brings about some showers and thunderstorms to the great lakes and the northeast. At this point it is impossible to say if the storms will reach Virginia. The Models keep the Dome over the Deep South … whiich again IF correct would bring in several days of U 90s and L 100s degree temperature readings.

The 0z Wednesday Europran continues to show the dome further south and any of the models. And because of the model has the dome so far to the south a pretty significant cold front moves into the upper plains and a good portion of the Midwest July 24-25 and into the Northeast July 26-27. The 0z Euro ensembles are not nearly as far south as the operational run.

No matter which of these possible solutions is correct the all show that the dome is either going to come due east from the Midwest region into the Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic states… or the dome gets shoved south … then comes east. There are of these possible so areas looks like a very hot last 10 days of July for the commonwealth…. a 3rd round of temps near or above 100 degrees seems a good bet.


1100   EDT JULY  12

As I am sure most of you know it’s been a very hot summer throughout the commonwealth as well as the Middle Atlantic states and  in  fact the entire eastern third of the Conus.    June 2010 was the hottest or one of the hottest June months on record .    Minor drought conditions had begun to develop across the commonwealth and if the current hot and fairly dry pattern continues then it looks like the drought conditions will probably worsen as we go through the second half for July and into August .

 The weather models over the weekend and early this month morning continue to show the developing potential of a major heat dome for the Midwest and the Plains states developing in the 6 to 10 day period.    All the models are showing this dome and given that we are now in any rapidly developing an increasing LA NINA pattern this sort of pattern development is a supported by the overall seasonal trend .

But beyond that this new pattern has significant implications for Virginia and the the entire Middle Atlantic region.

JULY 16-17-18.

 This looks like a warm weekend pretty typical for what will see in mid July with temperatures likely range in the low to mid 90s across the entire commonwealth. A cold front attached to a fairly strong area of Low-pressure and Eastern Canada will move through the big cities of the East coast Saturday night or Sunday.  This front should be strong enough to provide significant showers and thunderstorms to much of the commonwealth as well as the big cities of I -95.

This cold front will be followed by another fairly vigorous cold front moving through the NE Conus JULY 20-21. It is during this period that the heat dome over the southwest states will begin to slide east expanding into the Central and Lower Plains and into the Midwest BY DAY 9-10…. JULY 21-22.

JULY 23-24-25

The entire forecast for this weekend for Virginia… as well as MD DE WVA and NC…. depends on the development and the position of this massive Dome in the Jet stream that all of the weather models are currently developing over the Plains and the Midwest after July 20.  The day 10  ECMWF   0z  run….  has this Dome centered over the Midwest and the Delta. There is a weak trough off the New England Coast and the model makes it clear that the dome is rapidly building into Western Virginia western NC and into the Lower Ohio valley.

If this sceanrio is right VA could see its 3rd round of 100+ degree temps starting in this weekend . The heat may Not make it past DCA or BWI as the models all keep a weak trough over New England.

This would bring back eight another significant interval of 100° plus temperatures


VA WEEKEND WEATHER JULY 9-10-11 and JULY 16-17-18

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL | Wednesday 7 July 2010 10:00 am

7   JULY 1100  EDT

I am not going to comment about the heat this week anymore since story out there since it is out there anybody is now talking about the extreme heat over the Middle Atlantic region . However here at WXRISDK.COM… Where the focus is day 3 to day 30 this heat wave is essentially over.

The models this morning are not any clearer with regard to this weekend forecast    JULY 9-10-11

The Issue is whether or not the cold front which arrives on July 9 is going to clear the East coast in time to save most or a part of the weekend OR whether the front will get hung up along the East coast for most of the week end.

JULY   16-17-18

Weather models continue to show a message a system developing over southwest Canada next week which will track due east a cross or just to the north of the USA Canada border. This major Low will track through Quebec and drags its cold fromnt through the Midwest and into the East Coast late on July 15 or the 16th.

If the current weather models are to be believed… this front will drive steadily off the East coast in the first half of the weekend. This would allow for a cooler air mass to come in and fairly dry conditions for the second half the weekend.

When you get into July and early August… One has to be skeptical of weather models developing ery strong and deep troughs which moves these cold fronts rapidly across the Midwest and the East coast.


5 JULY   1000 EDT

These first couple of days of July had been spectacular over the eastern Conus with this large surface High dropping southeast from the  Great Lakes towards the Middle Atlantic Coast. The lower temperatures and humidity even reach down as far as northern and cerntral FL.

But as I mentioned last week that  is now changing.    Sunday’s max temps surged  into the M and U 90s from Boston to Southern Virginia…. as the dome is beginning to develop.  The heat will reach maximum intensity tomorrow July 6 and Wednesday July 7.   The hottest temperature ever recorded in Central Virginia/ Richmond was 107 setback in the summer of 1918 and the hottest temperature ever recorded in July was 105° also set back in the summer of 1977.     I think we have a chance to tie one of those records this week. As I said last week …the intense heat will not just affect VA but extend into NC and into all the big cities of the I-95 corridor.

JULY 9-10-11
The MAIN issue for this coming weekend for VA and all of the Middle Atlantic region will be the approaching cold front.    The European model delays the cold front until JULY 10 whereas the GFS and CMC (Canadian) Models move the front into the northeast by July 9.    There is some question as to how much shower and thunderstorm activity this cold front will have as it moves into the East Coast…. but it will end the heat.

If the cold front drives steadily off the coast Saturday and Sunday should be pretty decent days.    Much cooler…. and fairly but not Totally dry.    The closer you to the Chesapeake Bay … the northern outer banks of NC as well as the delamrva region… the more likely that the cloud cover will stay pretty heavy and the shower and thunderstorm threat will be a bit stronger.

JULY 16-17-18

The weather models are continuing to show a very active pattern over the Pacific Northwest Western Canada and South Central Canada. Those areas are in trouble with regard to getting their crops planted as it’s been so wet and Sunday that farmers in that portion of North America are running way behind normal with respect to typical planting conditions/ progress.

The models are showing another major system moving across South Central Canada JULY 14-15-16.   This strong Low will probably have a fairly strong cold front associate with it which will move into the northeast at some some portion of the weekend.    Right now the odds are pretty good that this weekend is gonna be a fairly wet one across a good portion of the commonwealth.