7 JULY 1100 EDT
I am not going to comment about the heat this week anymore since story out there since it is out there anybody is now talking about the extreme heat over the Middle Atlantic region . However here at WXRISDK.COM… Where the focus is day 3 to day 30 this heat wave is essentially over.
The models this morning are not any clearer with regard to this weekend forecast JULY 9-10-11
The Issue is whether or not the cold front which arrives on July 9 is going to clear the East coast in time to save most or a part of the weekend OR whether the front will get hung up along the East coast for most of the week end.
Weather models continue to show a message a system developing over southwest Canada next week which will track due east a cross or just to the north of the USA Canada border. This major Low will track through Quebec and drags its cold fromnt through the Midwest and into the East Coast late on July 15 or the 16th.
If the current weather models are to be believed… this front will drive steadily off the East coast in the first half of the weekend. This would allow for a cooler air mass to come in and fairly dry conditions for the second half the weekend.
When you get into July and early August… One has to be skeptical of weather models developing ery strong and deep troughs which moves these cold fronts rapidly across the Midwest and the East coast.
5 JULY 1000 EDT
These first couple of days of July had been spectacular over the eastern Conus with this large surface High dropping southeast from the Great Lakes towards the Middle Atlantic Coast. The lower temperatures and humidity even reach down as far as northern and cerntral FL.
But as I mentioned last week that is now changing. Sunday’s max temps surged into the M and U 90s from Boston to Southern Virginia…. as the dome is beginning to develop. The heat will reach maximum intensity tomorrow July 6 and Wednesday July 7. The hottest temperature ever recorded in Central Virginia/ Richmond was 107 setback in the summer of 1918 and the hottest temperature ever recorded in July was 105° also set back in the summer of 1977. I think we have a chance to tie one of those records this week. As I said last week …the intense heat will not just affect VA but extend into NC and into all the big cities of the I-95 corridor.
The MAIN issue for this coming weekend for VA and all of the Middle Atlantic region will be the approaching cold front. The European model delays the cold front until JULY 10 whereas the GFS and CMC (Canadian) Models move the front into the northeast by July 9. There is some question as to how much shower and thunderstorm activity this cold front will have as it moves into the East Coast…. but it will end the heat.
If the cold front drives steadily off the coast Saturday and Sunday should be pretty decent days. Much cooler…. and fairly but not Totally dry. The closer you to the Chesapeake Bay … the northern outer banks of NC as well as the delamrva region… the more likely that the cloud cover will stay pretty heavy and the shower and thunderstorm threat will be a bit stronger.
The weather models are continuing to show a very active pattern over the Pacific Northwest Western Canada and South Central Canada. Those areas are in trouble with regard to getting their crops planted as it’s been so wet and Sunday that farmers in that portion of North America are running way behind normal with respect to typical planting conditions/ progress.
The models are showing another major system moving across South Central Canada JULY 14-15-16. This strong Low will probably have a fairly strong cold front associate with it which will move into the northeast at some some portion of the weekend. Right now the odds are pretty good that this weekend is gonna be a fairly wet one across a good portion of the commonwealth.