1100 EDT — 20 SEPT 2010
Over the past several days several of the weather models have been showing the potential of a significant hurricane forming in the Northwest Caribbean around SEPT 22-23 in and moving over the Northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan channel into the Gulf of Mexico around SEPT 26-27 . Specifically the Operational GFS (Op-GFS) has been focusing on this feature for several days and some but not all of the GFS ensembles have been focusing on this potential development as well.
Unfortunately the insistent repetition of the Op-GFS in showing this feature since 9/14 has been causing a lot of speculation in various weather communities … weather Forums… and within the natural Gas Energy market by private forecasters. This is unfortunate because this feature is not likely to develop and make landfall in the U.S. or threaten the natural gas markets.
It is still of course quite possible that the operational GFS will turn out to be correct in that a Tropical Cyclone is going to form in the Northwest Caribbean. But as things stand right now the overall large scale or SYNOPTIC pattern is NOT favorable at all for the US Gulf of Mexico land falling hurricane.
Why am I very skeptical about this sort of hurricane scenario developing? There are several reasons for this and by focusing these reasons one can cut through the crappy models and show weather hobbyists and private energy meteorologists how NOT to over react to this sort of Model silliness.
DT’s DELAY RULE: this rule in medium range and extended range forecasting is probably the most overlooked rule of ALL the different guidelines and rules that I use.
Let’s at some point in 8 9 or 10 days out a weather model is showing a particular weather event . Lets call that event XYZ. Ideally if a weather model shows XYZ occurring at
say Day 9 or Day 10 … then as we get closer to the event XYZ …. if the event is “REAL” we SHOULD see more and greater detail within the weather model and more overall consistency. And more importantly the other weather models should begin to detect the possible event as well.
In other words if you have ONE model which is showing event XYZ 9 days from now and all the other weather models and ensembles showing NO such event… then over the course of the next few model runs one of two things will occur:
Either that ONE model that show possible Event XYZ will turn out to be Bogus and that one Model will drop event XYS…. OR
the other weather models will move towards it as we get closer to Day 9 .
In the DT DELAY RULE: sometimes however that one model which continues to show event XYZ run after Model run will refuse to change. When this happens it cause a lot of people to worry that this one particular model — in this case the GFS — will end up being correct even though it has no weather models support.
Very often you will get forecasters and Meteorologists who don’t know what they are doing in the medium range and extended range forecasting. Invariably you tell when this is the case when these folks say something like “well it’s possible that the GFS might be correct after all.”
No not really.
Which is what is happening with GFS. Each new model of the GFS is postponing the hurricane development in the Gulf of Mexico. Last Monday & Tuesday – September 13-14– the potential Gulf of Mexico hurricane was supposed to be making landfall sometime around September 27 or 28 ( according to the GFS) . In other words Day 12-13.
However with each new run of the OP- GFS the potential Gulf of Mexico hurricane has been delayed. By last Friday… SEPT 17…. the 12z GFS model run had the Hurricane moving into the the Yucatan channel in the southern Gulf but not until the 27th or the 28th…. and not being near the US coast until October 1.
Thus the DT DELAY RULE would apply this way to this situation:
when potential events… in the above example about the Gulf of Mexico Hurricane…. keeps getting delayed by the new model run… then delayed again… then delayed again…. this should be a warning sign that the potential Big event is NOT going to happen.
SECOND REASON: RULE OF MODEL AGREEMENT:
There had been several cases over the past two or three hurricane seasons where of many of the the global range weather models such as the GFS the Ecmwf the Canadian have correctly forecasted major tropical development such as a hurricane many days in advance. In the 2010 Hurricane season we saw this with DANIELLE…. EARL….. JULIA….. and IGOR.
But in these cases as we got closer and closer to these potential events developing the models came in stronger and stronger agreement. All the models clearly showed the systems developing by the time we reach Day 7 8 and 9. We did not see the weather models in disagreement and we did not see these potential hurricanes development delayed day after day after day .
0730 HOURS 3 SEPT
Lets hear it for the Hurricane Models…. they handle EARL very well. Just about as perfect as you can have with any hurricane Model of a CAT 3-4 cane coming up the east Coast. He turned N early and then NE last night. As I said on WRVA and in the Richmond Times Dispatch back on WED and Thursday morning … the far western edge of the rains MIGHT just reach I-95.
I am outa of here… Time to get ready for Autumn. FABULOUS LABOR DAY WEEKEND coming for all… and here in the Middle Atlantic we really deserve it after this Summer’ s heat.
1930 Hours EDT SEPT 1
There has been a major development with hurricane EARL. The actually two of them to be the precise. The first surprise was that EARL intensified during this afternoon back into it category 4 status once more. That was not really expected although it was quite possible given how warm the southwest portions of the North Atlantic Ocean waters are.
As of 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM this evening the the satellite data clearly shows that hurricane EARL has turned due North. This is much sooner than midday forecasted models and track has been calling for.
With regard to the benchmark which I have talked about several times at 30n and 75 West… a turn to the north mens EARL was going to pass much further to east of that benchmark than forecasted. As a result the odds are significantly increased that EARL will pass EAST of Cape Hatteras and not even have a significant impact over southeastern Virginia/ Hampton roads.
Of course we do not know that for certain yet but this turn to the north is a major development and cannot be overlooked. Remember we are dealing with parabolic curving track which will only continue to turn more to the north northeast over the next 24 hours.
Keeping in mind that Cape Hatteras is 75° latitude so if EARL is ALREADY moving due N at 73 or 74 degrees west Longitude… it is obvious to all that Earl is now going to pass EAST of Cape Hatteras. In fact by Thursday early morning EARL could be heading NNE or NE.
All this being said there is a new development with this cold front coming in from the Midwest. This is the same strong cold front that is going to help ” KICK” Earl off the NC coast. But the cold front is developing a significant area of Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and this Low pressure area is going to begin to emerge with Earl as he nears the southeast New England coast.
This sort of margins between a tropical feature and regular Non tropical Low pressure area is not unheard of in September. And it has happened with the hurricanes along the East Coast such as Hazel in OCT 1954 and the September 1938 great Long island / eastern New England hurricane.
The model data shows that this merging of the eastern Great Lakes Low and EARL will pull EARL back towards the Southeast New England Coast….. towards Boston and Cape Cod. And this mean that there could be a large of HIGH WINDS –40 to 80 MPH over southeastern Massachusetts as well as much as Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. An area of HIGH winds over 80 mphh are possible over some portions of Cape Cod. So this who scenario for southeastern England is going to require a lot of closer scrutiny the over the next 24 hours
FIONA is still hanging on but is NO threat and a FISH storm.
GASTON has potential to become a serious hurricane as it reaches the Eastern Caribbean Sea early next week. The 12z GFS has Gaston turning northwest across Puerto Rico and moving east of the Bahamas day 7-8-9… while at the same time a Huge HIGH over NC and SC moves off the coast into the southwest portion of the North Atlantic Ocean. This huge High pressure area should be enough to block Gaston from turning to the northwest and a north.
1050 am EST SEPT 1….
The morning satellite picture shows that hurricane EARL is holding together quite nicely and if anything may have strengthened a little bit. On the other hand tropical storm Fiona which looked a very good during the overnight hours ….has completely collapsed here in the midmorning hours because of the influence or outflow from hurricane Earl.
The 6z and 12z hurricane Models continue to show that EARL is going to make this sharp turn over the next 24 hours to a NNW direction then N then shortly after words NNE then NE. This curve… a parabolic curve …is fairly common or typical east coast hurricanes. The models have been showing this sort of curve now for the past several runs / Days and the data is really quite impressive. There is no reason to go against the models especially given the overall actual weather pattern.
The cold front which you can see very clearly on the morning surface radar maps out of the Midwest …HERE – looks pretty strong. And the Big HIGH out in the Western Atlantic Ocean can also be easily discernible on the morning weather maps and satellite pictures. So we know those two features are there.
That leads forecasters to believe this turn IS going to happen. The issue remains however how fast doex the turn occur because a difference of 12 hours will have a huge impact on weather conditions Friday over Eastern NC and possibly Southeast Virginia.
The 11:00 AM position has Earl at 25° N latitude and 72° W longitude. All of the hurricane models show a shift over the next 24 HRS so that EARL will pass very close to 30N and 75W. This is the BENCHAMRK position I talked about in the discussion last night. At that point according to all the hurricane models Earl should be heading almost due North traveling up the 75° west Longitude line and passing just east of Cape Hatteras and about a 100 or 125 miles east of Va Beach.
That is a pretty sharp turn from its current position of 25n and 72 west. Of course it is easily possible for EARL to make that sort of sharp turn BUT there is also some room for error here and that is why I am a little concerned about this turn.
Right now it seems that there are going to be tropical storm force conditions in Hampton roads / SE VA especially along the coastal areas… winds 39 to 72 mph. But the it remains very much a matter of uncertainty as to whether not Hurricane conditions make it into the northern outer banks or portions of VA beach.
FIONA… Which looking really good during the overnight hours looks like cap this Morning. This message that because of the strengthening of earl has increased the outflow from the top of the hurricane which is disrupting a tropical storm Fiona. If this process continues today tonight and Thursday Fiona could die off.
TD #9 will be declared in the far eastern Atlantic at 11:00 AM. This feature does not have any other tropical storms or hurricanes anywhere in Europe and in fact it is located in near ideal conditions. It is also pretty far to the south and 12° N latitude…. And there is nothing over the eastern or Central Atlantic Ocean which is going to turn TD#9 ( Gaston) out to sea. IF TD 9/ GASTON passes south the Puerto Rico it has a very good chance of becoming a Caribbean and and Gulf of Mexico storm attached well down the road and it is not at all certain that TD9/Gaston is going to Pass south of PR. But if it does the Gulf needs to watch out.
I will be on WRVA 1140 with JIMMY BARRETT 705 am WED SEPT 1
The first Point I want to make is that earlier this morning when it was obvious that hurricane EARL had leveled off in its intensity ACCU weather had come out and said there was a darn good chance that EARL would reach category 5 status. I suppose discretion is the better part of valor but I have never been very discreet.
The problem with that sort of declaration or forecast is that there is very little chance of EARL making category 5 status . Even this morning line when EARL was looking better and was not seeing so much SW sheer day ….the overall atmospheric conditions were not supportive of EARL becoming a category 5 hurricane.
Sure it can be said that Accuweather it did not technically forecast EARL to become a category 5 hurricane but that’ is a pretty weak defens … especially given how much crap Accu weather gives TPC. Saying that there is a chance EARL could become a category 5 hurricane today was not in the technical sense “wrong”. But it was darn unlikely and the WRONG thing to emphasis . Words have meaning and implications. Earlier this morning I received two phone calls and three emails from various sources— some of then NEWS sources wondering about Category 5 forecast status. It took me a while to figure out where this perception was coming from. In addition the process of why some hurricanes become category 5 e while others stay a cat3 or 4 in seemingly ideal conditions is not really well understood.
Late Monday afternoon the 18z HWRF… Which is one of the new and supposedly improve hurricane weather models… came out ( around 8pm) and a shifted the track of EARL dramatically to the left… towards Cape Hatteras. This was important because at the time the HWRF Model qwas one of models showing the Most east track with Earl. This image shows what the 18z HWRF looked liked. As you can see this is a pretty big Hit for Cape Hatteras .
However the 0z HWRF which comes out around 2am shifted EARL to the EAST of Hatteras again. HERE.
This shift was also shown by the 0z GFS which took EARL to the east of Hatteras by 75-100 miles. However the 12z GFS reversed course and took EARL right over Hatteras. This was the first model of any kind over the last three days which showed earl actually tracking over Cape Hatteras. I have taken the the surface Map of the AUG 31 0z GFS and the AUG 31 12z GFS and placed at next to each other so you can clearly see the this shift to the West.
The 12z run of the AUG 31 HWRF continued to shift or slide EARL to the east keeping him to the East of Cape Hatteras on Friday morning . see image
This image shows the official track of EARL — and his past track as well. At 4pm this afternoon the NEW 18Z Hurricane Model came out. … SEEN HERE. Unfortunately they actually added to the confusion the because the 18z Hurricane Model shifted EAST when compared to the 12z Hurricane Models.
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN ???
To many it will probably seem to be mass model confusion and uncertainty. But I wanted to post this data to show you the type of tricky situation that we are forced to deal with over the next two days… and meteorologists have to deal with many many times a year.
But in addition there actually IS a method that experience forecasters can use to cut through all this Model “clutter” and not be overloaded by all this conflicting data.
We have to see the what the models are trying to tell us as opposed to trying to figure out the exact track of EARL is going to be. I dont wnat to get all “tao” on you but right now the MEANING of the Models are more important than what any one of them are showing.
The important point is that once EARL nears Cape Hatteras all the data is showing a SHARP turn to the NE. Not a slight to the city NNE then NE….but a SHARP tuen to the NE. WHY? All this model data is telling us is that SOMETHING is coming through the atmosphere which is going to slam into EARL and bend himjust as he nears the NC coast / Cape Hatteras latitude of 35° N. That is because the Midwest cold front is actually looking stronger on the models to day than it did yesterday.
At this point nobody should be forecasting EARL to keep Due N course and ride up the East Coast . Not only does the model data tha not support that …. and models can be wrong — BUT that idea does not make sense given the strength and the power of the cold front coming in from the Midwest.
So we know a sharp turn is going to occur at some point. The best way to figure out when EARL is actually turning it is to set up a “BENCHAMRK” . By that I mean we set up a point that we can use track of EARL as he approaches the SE Coast. In this manner we can Judge the forecast and se if and when and how EARL is turning. In this case the benchmark is going to be the intersection of 30° N latitude and 75° W longitude. That intersection is about 200 miles east of Jacksonville Florida.
The closer EARL passes on Wednesday to the BENCHMARK of 30N and 75 W… The more likely he is to make a WIDER turn which strongly implies Earl would hit Hatteras or Eastern North Carolina. On the other hand if EARL is well to the north of that benchmark … then the odds strongly faor EARL beding NE sooner and faster and probably the passing east of Cape Hatteras altogether .
This benchmark system was taught to me by old hurricane forecaster over 25 years ago and I have used it many times. It really does not fail provided that the hurricane does not stall along the coast somewhere .
Behind EARL all of VA will see FABULOUS weather for Saturday Sunday and Monday….. temps in the 70s and L 80s Low Humidity and brillant sunshine.
That does not mean the hurricane models had been perfect with EARL. This IMAGE from some are a unknown site from EMC / NWS / NOAA…. is very useful in showing the overall model bias with EARL. In each one of these lines represents various are runs of the gfs… out to 8 days in 12 hours increments . As you can see the from the very beginning the GFS has consistently turned EARL waaaaaay too soon to the WNW then NW. The bias are showing up even 12 HRS after the new run of the GFS model initializes EARL .
Now don’t forget that late last week the GFS was showing earl passing very close to Bermuda. But those meterologist that can see that the problem of EARL’s forward speed new that a track close to Bermuda was not going to happen. This is why I started to show my first statements here and on the FACEBOOK page last THURSDAY & FRIDAY. …… The Fast forward speed of EARL over the past several days has made the system resistant to turning to the NW as soon or as sharp as the GFS and other hurricane models had been depicting.
This is a very critical point because it has to do directly with WHY and how fast EARL will turn as it approaches the Bahamas.
A sharper turn to the NW then NNW then N then NNE…. means that EARL is far more likely to pass east of Hatteras ….and the further east of Hatteras the LESS impact over Eastern NC and Southeast VA. On the other hand the slower the turn though Weiner of the turn then the MORE likely EARL is to hit Cape Hatteras or even pass west of Cape Hatteras — over the Pamlico and Albermarke sounds.
There are of course other complicating factors. There is the actual forward speed of Hurricane EARL . A FASTER Earl mean a wider turn for two reasons. First we have the super tanker effect. A large supertanker which is traveling at 20 or 25 knots it is going to do the a lot harder to turn then the same supertanker doing 5 knots. The reason is obvious and self evident. The same thing applies with a faster moving EARL that is approaching the southeast US coast . A faster moving massive category 4 hurricane is going to take a lot longer to make the turn to the NW… NNW … N NNE. The second reason is that a faster moving hurricane EARL means that he is going to get up to North Carolina before the cold front has a chance to kick him out to sea.
Now I am not forecasting EARL to retain the same speed the has it has been over the past three days. In fact the latest data is showing that he is slowing down some. But that’s because he is making the turn . It is possible that EARL may resume forward speed later.
The other complicating factor has to do with the actual cold front that moves into the Midwest the middle of the week. If I was explaining this on TV or to a group of people I would tell you that the cold front is what is going to Kick EARL off the coast. But that’s actually a gross simplification of the process. The cold front is actually reflective of a strong trough which is moving into the upper plains and the Midwest. The trough is what develops the cold front at the surface —not the other way around.
As the trough moves east the cold front moves East and the idea is that it will arrive in time time to knock EARL off the coast and prevented from reaching Hatteras. And the odds of very good at of hurricane EARL bypasses Cape Hatteras to the east… he will likely by pass Cape Cod to the east.
The problem is that all Summer these cold fronts had been forecast to move much faster than they actually have. That is one reasons why the summer has been so amazingly hot across Virginia North Carolina Maryland and the Deep South.
In addition consider what is driving the pattern — the La Nina and the cold water in the eastern Pacific– negative PDO. The two features have persistently kept trough in the jet stream over the West coast and Rockies all Summer. if you know anybody on the West Coast they will tell you how delightful and cool their summer has been. Because of the trough over the western third of the west we have had to deal with this ridge over the eastern US all summer and thus the extreme heat.
But that is the problem with the scenarios that this cold front coming through Midwest is going to move fast enough to kick EARL off the coast. There is a case to the made that because of the overall pattern and a seasonal trend that the cold front is not going to move as fast as currently forecasted …. Which would allow EARL to come very close to Cape Hatteras and maybe even pass to the WEST of Hatteras.
When will we know? WED September 1 will be THE critical day. By that we will be able to see with good accuracy how fast this cold front will be moving in from the Midwest and what the turn is looking like as EARL by passes the Bahamas.
Clearly the Fiona… Is a very interesting situation because it is obviously being influenced by the strong outflow from the rapidly intensifying hurricane EARL . And of course she also has to deal with SSTS which have been stired up by EARL…. so are therefore slightly cooler.
The European model this morning which on Sunday had been the most bullish and aggressive of all the models with Fiona shifted the the forecast track from Florida then into the Gulf as a category 4 or 5 hurricane … to one where FIONA comes up the East coast…. in a manner similar to EARL’s track.
The 12z ECMWF does the same sort of track and scenario with Fiona BUT the cold front and Upper trough in the Jet stream that Kicks EARL east… is now leaving. The 12z Monday Aug 30 euro shows that Fiona gets pulled North off the NC coast but then gets left behind. A new ridge builds and across the northeast which blocks FIONA from heading up the coast or head out to sea which is forces FIONA into the Eastern NC …. then drifts SW into SC and GA dropping huge amounts of rain and causing widespread and possibly a massive flooding in those areas.
I think this is the moslty track. I think the 12z and 18z GFS which have NO FIONA and 12z and 18z Hurricane Models that Take FIONA to Bermuda are absurd.
EARL IS A NEAR MISS….FIONA COULD BE VERY BAD HURRICANE FOR SE US / FLORIDA
One of the things you will notice on this website is the lack of information regarding hurricanes earlier in the 2010 season. There are two reasons for this. First those events are not really major events and were not worthy of the time and effort it takes to update the hurricane page in addition to all the other clients and forecast which I have to issue on a daily basis.
Second …Hurricanes DANIELLE and EARL and probably FIONA are Atlantic Coast hurricanes as opposed to Gulf of Mexico storms. This means I have a bit more freedom and leeway to talk about Atlantic Coast hurricanes because these TC do not threaten the Gulf of Mexico’s natural gas and Oil areas directly.
Let’s get right to it.
Hurricanes are not people. They do not have brains . They do not have personalities and they are not independent forces that do whatever they want to. Hurricanes that make landfall on the East coast do so ONLY when there are certain specific synoptic patterns over the western Atlantic and the eastern half of the Conus.
There are distinct difference in synoptic patterns between East coast hurricanes which have come made landfall & come inland vs. those which are just a brushed the East coast and/ or or only glance southeastern New England.
In the first group we have storms such as ISABEL DONNA HAZEL FLOYD DORIA HUGO FRAN CONNIE and DIANE.
In the second group we have numerous storms which have stayed Offshore. Sometimes by as little as 100 Miles. Some of these hurricanes have hit southeast New England.. EDNA BELLE GLORIA the Great Hurricane of 1938 and the Atkantic Hurricane of 1944. But for the most part these TC — tropical cyclones –did not hit the southeast Conus or the Middle Atlantic Coasts.
On the Facebook page you may have noticed that back on Thursday asserted / forecasted that the TD– tropical depression — that was to become EARL… had a pretty good shot of passing between the East coast and Bermuda. At that time almost all the data was showing a significantly further east track. A hurricane that passes between Bermuda and the East coast has a specific term which has been used by old timers … its called a “SLOT HURRICANE” . This term refers to the typical East coast the re-curvature hurricane track where the tropical storm or hurricane passes fairly close to the coast but does not actually make landfall.
That is what EARL is… a SLOT HURRICANE. EARL is going miss the East coast. Perhaps passing 100 or 200 miles east of hatteras or 200 miles east of Va Beach… but a miss nonetheless.
The is monster dome of at 500 MB over the Middle Atlantic states will ensure that Earl will not reach the coast. This is not an ordinary High pressure area but actually a DOME in the jet stream over 594 dm.
The Dome on the East coast not only protects the East coast from EARL… but this massive Dome means there HAS to be a equally strong/ deep trough off shore in the western Atlantic ocean. WHY? For every ridge there is trough for every trough there is a ridge… for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction…
Thus one Must face Facts squarely…. There are NO Models… NONE.. zero…. zilch …nada… that show EARL making landfall along the southeast US coast …the Middle Atlantic US coast …or southeast and New England. Of course that does not mean it cannot happen but right now the odds still STRONGLY favor NO eastern US landfall.
Think about it. Over the last 4 days… we have had 16 runs of the GFS…. 8 runs of the ECMWF 8 runs of the CMC… PLUS 29 various Hurricane Models in each cycle and the Hurricane Models come out 4 times a day. Thus the fact that none of this data .. not 1 time … has shown EARL making landfall on the East coast is a HIGHLY significant.
The pattern remains unfavorable for Earl to make a landfall on the East coast and these Models clearly see this. To be sure it is going to be close to be sure especially over Eastern North Carolina and southeastern Massachusetts. These areas could see tropical storm force winds quite easily.
On the other hand 97L which is clearly a tropical depression right now will likely become a tropical cyclone Fiona. But the hurricane center with its hands full of Danielle and Earl has some leeway here and can wait a day or two before Upgrading.
But 97L is clearly a TD. This one has me worried… Actually more like terrified. Those are you that know me and a followed might postings here and over at SV know that I have reputation of being somewhat skeptical — but Not cycnical — and to NOT hype events. On the other hand if I see something serious coming I have no problems talking about it and if I needed to forecasted it.
The last six runs of the European model and the Canadian model– 3 days days twice a day — have developed FIONA into a Monster hurricane. Huge is size and in intensity…. to category 4 or 5 status. the 0z Sunday AUG 29 run of the euro takes Fiona into central FL …near Daytona while the 0z CMC takes her into CHS.
The GFS has No storm whatsoever. Not the early Morning GFS or any of the 4 Saturday runs or Friday’s run. Nothing.
Of course there are still several aspects to 07L / FIONA. We still don’t know exactly where the center is going to form even though it is obvious that the system is actyally currently a tropical depression.
This is important because the entire forecast rack begins at a certain point and that point is of course where the low level center circulation –LLCC -actually develops.
The problem has that the Gap or distance between EARL and the system that is going to become FIONA is increasing because EARL is moving much faster then FIONA. Once EARL makes the turn and parallels the East coast EARL’s forward speed will pickup be the even more.
This means the Trough over the West Atlantic “FILLS” or disappears. The BERMUDA HIGH– actual name is the W.A.R. Western Atlantic ridge in the weather Biz — builds into the East coast and as far west as the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by SEPT 6.
Because of this movement FIONA will not be able to turn to recurve. In fact there may be NO NW movement at all. The 12z sunday Euro has FIONA passing thru the FL straits then into the eastern and N central Gulf as a strong Cat 4. This is CLEARLY a shift south from the 0z run.
To be sure possible to given that this is 8-9-10 days out it is almost impossible to tell exactly where FIONA will be or how strong. However the overall synoptic pattern is quite favorable for the impact in se states or into FL and perhaps into the Gulf.
The Implications of this sort of storm are hard to overstate. An event like this has far long lasting economic…. social…. ….political and individual consequences. When you or you and your family or friends are in a cat 3-4-5 Hurricane nothing is ever the same. NOTHING. Its like being in a war or a disaster end of the Earth type of Movie,
You end up with a new life in every sense of the word. For folks in Andrew Hugo Katrina…. their reality becomes ” Before the event” and life “Since that event. “
I hope the Euro and CMC models are wrong. But I dont think they are. FIONA will be retired for the record books.