Posted by wxrisk | HURRICANE SEASON 2012 | Sunday 31 October 2010 12:08 pm




31  OCT   2010  1155 EDT/ 1555  Z

Just like the overall pattern across the northeast US  has become rather stormy with intervals of rather tranquil weather in between  during  OCT   2010…  we  are seeing a similar  sort of pattern over western and central Europe.

We actually end up seeing this sort of thing fairly often.    Just like on  the West coast where the weather is often the exact opposite is on the east coast…  we see the same sort of thing between the East coast of the  CONUS  and Western / central  Europe.  There is a specific reason for that  – it is  not just weather coincidence.

 The West coast  is  3000- 3300 miles away and that  just happens  to be  most  common  distance between  the wavelenghts   of   Ridges and  troughs at that latitude in  the   world.   This is also  the case   betwen the East coast and   western  half of Europe.

Over the past few weeks   there  have been a  number of significant troughs ….some of them quite deep in terms of amplitude over Western Europe  which has provided for significant rains.    But these   longwave   troughs have been so deep that the southern end or southern base of the trough have separated from the main flow. This results in   a closed   500 MB  Low  that is   ” cutoff”    from  the main flow.    Over the past few  weeks this  has been happening  alot   Spain  & western   Mediterranean.   This  500 MB low then  meanders across western and central Mediterranean into the southern Balkans  and Turkey.

This means  that the Ukraine  and    southwest Russia  which is still trying to recover from a deadly heat and drought of the past summer   has not   been seeing   good  rains. Indeed  that IS  the case  with this current system.    The Sunday   weather maps  hvae a  deep 500   short  wave trough  with a fairly strong area of low pressure southwest of Cornwall   England that is approaching the Bay of Biscay inland  at 981  MB.     This system over the next two or three days ….will drop through France and and into the central Mediterranean while the northern end  the jet stream is carrying in the next strong system well north of Scotland  and  headed towards  Norway.

The Low that moves into the Mediterranean Monday & Tuesday  is much weaker than the Low  coming into Norway so has a result   the  Northern Jet stream   leaves the southern Low behind .  If the Southern System were to continue to move east it could provide some rain into the southern portions of the Ukraine and into  sw  Russia but the model data clearly shows that does not happen.  The weak   Mediterranean low meanders over the eastern Mediterranean and then finally falls apart.

  Far more important however it is the the depiction of a monster storm for inland and Western  Europe   NOV  7-8.  The 0z  Euro has this Low at  953 mb over far southwest England on the evening of the  11/8. 

Why does the European model developed  this system into a  monster  North  Atlantic    storm  that  reaches   category 3 hurricane intensity ?

The KEY  appears to be a the development of the    coastal storm over the East coast  of the   CONUS   and the monster trough  in the   Jet stream  NOV  5-6-7  and hurricane Tomas.   The deep East coast trough causes a strong ridge to form in the western and Central Atlantic Ocean but that ridge is fed  or  enhanced  by the heat  from  hurricane Tomas as it moves into the western portions of the north Atlantic after day 6-7.      This  Super powerful ridge in the north Atlantic builds towards the southern tip of  Greenland which forces the next piece of energy in the polar jet to drop rapidly the southeast towards Ireland and England as it undergoes rapid intensification.  

  This results in the     European   model   developing   this      super  Bomb    Low for western European  UK Low.


Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,SEASONAL FORECASTS | Saturday 2 October 2010 8:11 pm

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