1705   JAN 3    2011  …..  CLICK  ON IMAGES    FOR    FULL SIZE

 The winter   of 2009-10 which was supposed to be a fairly mild and easy going winter especially after the holidays… is turning out to be a real pain in the   ass.  There are an awful lot of energy forecasters  out there whose JAN 2011 forecasts are already in the crapper.  Moreover if you look at the La Nina  Winters that featured colder than normal Januarys over the central and eastern U.S.  almost all of them featured cold and stormy Februarys as well.

There are   two major  things  I want to   discuss.  The first event  is the potential for significant winter storm over Eastern New England January 7-8.

As I stated in the  last update this is not really a CLIPPER  LOW per se.     This Low  develops on the arctic front which is why it really should be called  an   “Arctic Low”.    The 0z   MONDAY  JAN 3 run of the  ECMWF was very bullish with the system by developing the Low way to the  south and west… off the NJ coast. 

This sort of   explosive development of the arctic Low near the New Jersey Coast would not only bring New England a major snowstorm but you also hammered NYC with over a foot of snow easily— as well as New Jersey and Philadelphia.   And as a system pulls away from the coast    the 0z   Jan 3 European model   “bombs   the Low out”   and develops strong N winds over 30 or 35 mph.     While 0z  European model solution is  possible strongly unlikely to verify the cause in order to get the Low to develop  that close to the   NJ coast   there has to be a  southern Low  coming uo from  VA.  The problem is… that is not  going to  be a southern Low.

The 6z GFS has a much more realistic solution by developing a powerful low pressure area off the southeast coast of New England.  We can see this solution here.

This  solution  is  supported   in some ways  by the 12z  Jan 3 run of the GFS.     However the 12z    run  shows an exceptionally strong and  intensifying Low pressure area that would be easily bring blizzard conditions to much of Eastern New England including Cape Code and Boston.   The  Model  bombs it out to  966 mb off the southeast coast of Massachusetts … then if that was  not extreme  enough…. the  GFS stalls  the Low    east of  Boston  for 24 hrs.

Not surprisingly the model produces a huge area of precipitation– all of it  snow  with  over  36 inches of  an all of Cape Code  and  12-24″  over   eastern  Mass  far eastern   CT  and  eastern Long  Island.  And as a result of   the 12z  GFS   has  NO significant  snow  in western CT or  NYC.

The 12z   Jan 3 European model has finally come to its senses and develops a   strong   surface Low  over    eastern  OH/ western  PA   the morning of JAN 8.   This Low  will bring moderate snow  to   Northern  WVA western MD PA   NJ NYC   NY.   The  the Low will     ” bomb out”   well off the SE Massachusetts and coastline at  974  mb on JAN 9.     Not surprisingly  the    12z   JAN 3  European model does not bring  2″+ of  liquid  to far eastern Massachusetts .
 

THE  FIRST ARCTIC   BLAST.

Of course as I have been saying for last couple of days  this is NOT and    ordinary  “CLIPPER LOW” .   This system is actually associated with the  PV — polar vortex– that is being forced out of Central Canada into the Great Lakes and New England.  Once the storm begins to bomb out    east of the  New England  coast the arctic air mass associated with the polar vortex will come pouring southward on strong north winds.  Many places in  VA MD   DE  will not see max temps   past 30 degrees on the  JAN  8  or 9   with n or NW winds of   20+ MPH.       This by the way is the weather channel’s    ten Day forecast issued   January 2 for  Richmond   VA.   This is just embarrassing.

  JAN    12-13  MAJOR EAST COAST  SNOWSTORM THREAT.

This next event for start appearing on many of the ensemble data around December 28 – 29 and the cause of the overall pattern I  have   been somewhat optimistic or  excited about the potential for this event.   I have always held true to rule that the big  East coast  snowstorm events   you can see  coming   days and days out.  Of this was certainly the case with the January 1996 blizzard as well as the president’s day II snowstorm in 2003 and    the   Major   northeast US   snowstorms  in 2005 and 2006 as well as the major snowstoms  over the northeast which were so common last winter .

The key to this storm  THREAT  is going to be three particular features.    First    we are going  to have to get the large polar vortex over southeastern Canada to move out.    If   it  does NOT  then  this  system is not going to bring any    snow north of Philadelphia.    The other features has to do with two piece of energy in the jet stream which  on JAN 8-9  will be located over   eastern   TX and the Other over  ID and  southwest MT.   Some of the weather models are crushing work showing off the lead piece of energy over Eastern Texas but some of the models and  ensembles  are   merging  –or “phasing”  the  2  over  the Lower Plains and   Delta.

Here is the  0z   JAN 3 European model from last night and as you can see it as a major winter storm over the entire mid Atlantic states up into Southern New England.  The map bears striking similarities to January 1996 and the model produces over 1.25   to 1.75″  liquid  to   much of   NC except for far western portions … VA  and  MD again except for the far western portions …     the eastern  25% of PA…  all of NJ   NYC Long island  and much of Southern Eastern New England.

Here is the   12z JAN 3 GFS…  And it shows the two pieces of energy quite nicely in the jet stream which we  are going to have to watch and see how they interact and develop .   By day 7.5   the GFS has a major pieces energy moving into the Mississippi Valley and developing a significant coastal storm shortly afterwards.

 This Link  shows  the  12z  GFS   precipitation forecast  for the period of JAN 11-12.   The  dark  Blue  band   is 0.50 to 0.75″ which given the high  snows   ratios would be significant snowfall .

 BY  Day 9  the Model  has a decent Low– not nearly as strong as the European models but impressive nonetheless– and it shows a massive arctic High over  northwestern Canada Poised to come plunging southward.

  The 12z JAN 3 European models out and it is pretty close to what the earlier model was showing but the  Model develops the coastal Low a little further to the north and a little later.  As a result of this run of the European model does not have nearly as much heavy precipitation over Maryland North Carolina and Virginia although it still has significant about.  However it this point in time we’re just quibbling says it still nine days out and the important thing is that the model still has the system as does the Canadian and the   GFS.

 SEVERE  COLD  BLAST

 these maps  are  stunningly  and  severely cold.  This Map  shows the  JET stream map…    please note the  BLUE  Lines  coming   from the   top of the map– the  ARCTIC  circle.   These  Lines  actually reach from  SIBERIA  …  then  move across the  North Pole and plunge   south    bringing severe  cold   into  Northern TX   by JAN 12-13  and  as far eastern   eastern TN    WVA  and PA.

 Mid  40s  huh?  Great call  Weather  Channel…..

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1130  AM   JAN 1