1855  EST   7JAN

 

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1830    EST  JAN 5  

There is a free the newsletter which you can get from  me…   To see a sample   of the  newsletter     CLICK    HERE.   The newsletter covers the next two weeks in Virginia and the neighboring regions and is issued twice a week…  Usually the Sunday afternoon or evenings and again on Thursday morning.  After the winter season of course the  VIRGINA   2 WEEK  FORECAST  Newsletter  continues so you complain your warm weather activity 2 and 3  weeks ahead.  If you wanna get on the mailing list…  Just drop me a line
 at     [email protected]   and   say     ”HEY   DT   put me on the mailing list.” 

I am running way behind schedule to date because of  2 hour orthodontist  appointment for my son.  Normallly  this  UPDATE  would be online by 430   OR  5:00 PM 

Later on this evening I will be issuing some snow maps for the arctic Low which is going to develop off the New England Coast  JAN 7-8.  The model data is pretty clear that there is going to be a  NORULND  trough which is a special  and somewhat rare weather feature.   The  Norlund trough  will   extend over Eastern NY  State  into  western  CT  and portions of Long Island  into the Low itself.   This   1st GUESS  snow map it is going to be a high risk forecast since getting these sorts of features    right  can be very difficult.  I would not at all be surprised if over the high terrain of southeastern New York Hudson Valley into southwest Connecticut  12″   or more of snow  fell… yet  50 miles  away   Nothing  falls.   

OK and lets move on to the bigger event for January 11.  I have been talking about this event since December 28 – 29 and yesterday when all the model data was showing the inland track of the Low…  and possibly going up the spine of the Appalachians  with a late  redevelopment   of the Low to the coast…   I tried to argue that the solution was not viable given the overall pattern.   Instead I took a lot of nasty comments  from the ignorant weenies  in  the gallery. 

Today I looked a helluva lot smarter to them that I did yesterday.    This really is NOT  rocket science but if you are so desperate and hung up about getting a snow storm in your backyard that you simply ignore the actual weather pattern and latch onto what ever model is giving you a big snow…  then you always going to be wrong and always going to be behind the eight ball. 

It’s meteorology  NOT Modelology…  And  yesterday far too many    people  who knew  better were practicing that. 

Remember   weather  patterns of drive weather features and the weather models  tried to simulate  actual weather patterns.   Sometimes   weather models…  either one or all of them ….can miss features which cause  Models  to   behave erratically   and we  see model flip flops and reversals. 

That being said the important lesson that we have learned from the DEC   26th big East coast storm  is that when ALL of the weather models at the same time / Model  cycle  change  course    and they ALL show the   same  thing…  it usually means something significant.   If you recall    on DEC 24  the weather models which had showed the big East coast storm for several days due the reversal and showed no storm at all.  However on Friday afternoon the weather models southerly change course and showed a significant snow up and down the East coast with a very strong area of Low pressure . 

No one was sure what to make of this dramatic turn of events   but when ALL  of the 18z  DEC  24   Models  and ALL   of the  0z DEC 25   weather Model came out and showed the trend continuing…  That dramatic shift should have been interpreted as a major change.  Instead what we saw was incremental changes on most of the TV stations and NWS  forecast  over  eastern  VA and the Lower  MD  eastern  shore. 

 

We can see how the Canadian model does this over these next two images.  At 120 and 132 hours  the Model  shows feature #1 holding together quite nicely and allowing the phasing to take place. 

At the surface this is what the early WED morning Canadian model looked like.  As you can see   the Model   has a major Low over the Gulf coast states which moves into the Carolinas and Virginia and  brings a  glancing blow to central and Eastern MD VA and Southern NJ. 

The 0z European model whch we can see here at  96  and  120 hrs  also has a very strong feature over Texas. ( LEFT  side  maps Jet stream  RIGHT  side  maps  surface) .       But at 120 HRS     feature   #1 is getting washed out or crushed as it moves into AL and GA.  Because the European model  is killing the first feature ….when the second piece of energy catches up to it   it becomes much harder  to develop a significant coastal storm.  

See?       The 0z  WED   GFS had a very suppressed system as it almost always does when you dealing with very cold arctic air over the eastern Conus so my opinion it’s not even worth talking about. 

The  6z   WED GFS was a little better and had the system stronger that was   closer to the coast and at significant snow over much of NC and   MD. 

 The WED 12z GFS was pretty close to the same as the  6Z GFS  with moderate snow over portions of NC into  central and Eastern VA   but very little  snow  North of Fredericksburg and Charlottesville. 

The important run was the Canadian model from this afternoon because there was widespread belief that is as impressive as the Canadian model was early Wednesday morning… the 12z  Canadian model would probably not show that sort of impressive set up.  However the Canadian model DID hold the stormy snowy pattern  and if anything increased it .    

 Here is the jet stream map from the  12z  WED   Canadian valid for Monday night January 9.    Then  model has   feature  #1  looking   very strong …quite vigorous over  ARK northern MS  and Western TN and because the model has    this  feature   so strong the second feature coming out of the central Rockies   can merge or PHASE.      This results in the  12z  wed afternoon Canadian model showing a major winter storm with a large area of heavy snow covering all VA   MD   into  WVA nd  eastern  KY    and  by   day 7… JAN 12 then heavy snow spreads into  NJ  PHL  NYC  Long Island and  CT. 

As promising as all this may be the we still have to be concerned that two things could go wrong with this major winter storm threat. 

 FIRST   the lead  Piece  of  energy   (short wave)   coming at a Texas has got to survive.  If it does not survue and it gets  SQUASHED     there will be no big snow  for   anyone! 

Second one has to be concerned that the system does not slide out to the south and east.  We can get a very nice Low but its not at all certain that   the Low  is  going  to make it   as far N as the Canadian model is  now showing.  

And we also have to be concerned that the   12z  European model continues to show system  #1 — the  lead piece of energy over  TX– getting squashed as it comes east into  GA. 

However if you look closely you will see that with each model cycle  of  the European model..  system #1  is still  be squashed .  BUT…. the model  is doing  this  later and later.  

The delay in crushing the the first system means  that    there is More energy   so that a Phase  CAN  take place.      Over the last few runs the European model has developed heavy widespread rains across all of the gulf coast states and significant snow in portions of Northern Arkansas Tennessee Northern Mississippi Northern Alabama and Georgia.  

We can see this slow a subtle shift in the European by taking a look at this image.  The top maps deferred to the early morning Wednesday European model run…  And the bottom maps   are the  Wednesday  afternoon European model run.     These map s may look the same but there are subtle differences and the precipitation shield is much stronger on the bottom maps….  the  12z  WED      European Model. 

EURO  ENSEMBLE   0Z   vs   12z 

 The 0z  European  model run had No snow over Raliegh or Richmond and only a little snow over  Norfolk.   But the   12z  Wed European…   has  a LOT more precip  over  central and  eastern  NC   and   eastern  half of  VA.   (about  3″  at  Richmond   and 6″  at   Raliegh into  Noroflk) .  While this is NOT  as much as  the Canadian it is a increase from the  0z   European Model run.