1855 EST 7JAN
1830 EST JAN 5
There is a free the newsletter which you can get from me… To see a sample of the newsletter CLICK HERE. The newsletter covers the next two weeks in Virginia and the neighboring regions and is issued twice a week… Usually the Sunday afternoon or evenings and again on Thursday morning. After the winter season of course the VIRGINA 2 WEEK FORECAST Newsletter continues so you complain your warm weather activity 2 and 3 weeks ahead. If you wanna get on the mailing list… Just drop me a line
at [email protected] and say ”HEY DT put me on the mailing list.”
I am running way behind schedule to date because of 2 hour orthodontist appointment for my son. Normallly this UPDATE would be online by 430 OR 5:00 PM
Later on this evening I will be issuing some snow maps for the arctic Low which is going to develop off the New England Coast JAN 7-8. The model data is pretty clear that there is going to be a NORULND trough which is a special and somewhat rare weather feature. The Norlund trough will extend over Eastern NY State into western CT and portions of Long Island into the Low itself. This 1st GUESS snow map it is going to be a high risk forecast since getting these sorts of features right can be very difficult. I would not at all be surprised if over the high terrain of southeastern New York Hudson Valley into southwest Connecticut 12″ or more of snow fell… yet 50 miles away Nothing falls.
OK and lets move on to the bigger event for January 11. I have been talking about this event since December 28 – 29 and yesterday when all the model data was showing the inland track of the Low… and possibly going up the spine of the Appalachians with a late redevelopment of the Low to the coast… I tried to argue that the solution was not viable given the overall pattern. Instead I took a lot of nasty comments from the ignorant weenies in the gallery.
Today I looked a helluva lot smarter to them that I did yesterday. This really is NOT rocket science but if you are so desperate and hung up about getting a snow storm in your backyard that you simply ignore the actual weather pattern and latch onto what ever model is giving you a big snow… then you always going to be wrong and always going to be behind the eight ball.
It’s meteorology NOT Modelology… And yesterday far too many people who knew better were practicing that.
Remember weather patterns of drive weather features and the weather models tried to simulate actual weather patterns. Sometimes weather models… either one or all of them ….can miss features which cause Models to behave erratically and we see model flip flops and reversals.
That being said the important lesson that we have learned from the DEC 26th big East coast storm is that when ALL of the weather models at the same time / Model cycle change course and they ALL show the same thing… it usually means something significant. If you recall on DEC 24 the weather models which had showed the big East coast storm for several days due the reversal and showed no storm at all. However on Friday afternoon the weather models southerly change course and showed a significant snow up and down the East coast with a very strong area of Low pressure .
No one was sure what to make of this dramatic turn of events but when ALL of the 18z DEC 24 Models and ALL of the 0z DEC 25 weather Model came out and showed the trend continuing… That dramatic shift should have been interpreted as a major change. Instead what we saw was incremental changes on most of the TV stations and NWS forecast over eastern VA and the Lower MD eastern shore.
We can see how the Canadian model does this over these next two images. At 120 and 132 hours the Model shows feature #1 holding together quite nicely and allowing the phasing to take place.
At the surface this is what the early WED morning Canadian model looked like. As you can see the Model has a major Low over the Gulf coast states which moves into the Carolinas and Virginia and brings a glancing blow to central and Eastern MD VA and Southern NJ.
The 0z European model whch we can see here at 96 and 120 hrs also has a very strong feature over Texas. ( LEFT side maps Jet stream RIGHT side maps surface) . But at 120 HRS feature #1 is getting washed out or crushed as it moves into AL and GA. Because the European model is killing the first feature ….when the second piece of energy catches up to it it becomes much harder to develop a significant coastal storm.
See? The 0z WED GFS had a very suppressed system as it almost always does when you dealing with very cold arctic air over the eastern Conus so my opinion it’s not even worth talking about.
The 6z WED GFS was a little better and had the system stronger that was closer to the coast and at significant snow over much of NC and MD.
The WED 12z GFS was pretty close to the same as the 6Z GFS with moderate snow over portions of NC into central and Eastern VA but very little snow North of Fredericksburg and Charlottesville.
The important run was the Canadian model from this afternoon because there was widespread belief that is as impressive as the Canadian model was early Wednesday morning… the 12z Canadian model would probably not show that sort of impressive set up. However the Canadian model DID hold the stormy snowy pattern and if anything increased it .
Here is the jet stream map from the 12z WED Canadian valid for Monday night January 9. Then model has feature #1 looking very strong …quite vigorous over ARK northern MS and Western TN and because the model has this feature so strong the second feature coming out of the central Rockies can merge or PHASE. This results in the 12z wed afternoon Canadian model showing a major winter storm with a large area of heavy snow covering all VA MD into WVA nd eastern KY and by day 7… JAN 12 then heavy snow spreads into NJ PHL NYC Long Island and CT.
As promising as all this may be the we still have to be concerned that two things could go wrong with this major winter storm threat.
FIRST the lead Piece of energy (short wave) coming at a Texas has got to survive. If it does not survue and it gets SQUASHED there will be no big snow for anyone!
Second one has to be concerned that the system does not slide out to the south and east. We can get a very nice Low but its not at all certain that the Low is going to make it as far N as the Canadian model is now showing.
And we also have to be concerned that the 12z European model continues to show system #1 — the lead piece of energy over TX– getting squashed as it comes east into GA.
However if you look closely you will see that with each model cycle of the European model.. system #1 is still be squashed . BUT…. the model is doing this later and later.
The delay in crushing the the first system means that there is More energy so that a Phase CAN take place. Over the last few runs the European model has developed heavy widespread rains across all of the gulf coast states and significant snow in portions of Northern Arkansas Tennessee Northern Mississippi Northern Alabama and Georgia.
We can see this slow a subtle shift in the European by taking a look at this image. The top maps deferred to the early morning Wednesday European model run… And the bottom maps are the Wednesday afternoon European model run. These map s may look the same but there are subtle differences and the precipitation shield is much stronger on the bottom maps…. the 12z WED European Model.
EURO ENSEMBLE 0Z vs 12z
The 0z European model run had No snow over Raliegh or Richmond and only a little snow over Norfolk. But the 12z Wed European… has a LOT more precip over central and eastern NC and eastern half of VA. (about 3″ at Richmond and 6″ at Raliegh into Noroflk) . While this is NOT as much as the Canadian it is a increase from the 0z European Model run.