2300 EDT   AUG 23Earlier on Tuesday afternoon I issued this detailed statement over at the facebook/ wxrisk  page— which you can find on the   Discussion Tab   or  you can read   by licking on this LINK.  The  Discussion  was  my   views as of  Tuesday Morning   on how  I see the hurricane IRENE threat for Virginia North Carolina and Maryland based upon the Tuesday morning and midday weather models.    https://www.facebook.com/#!/topic.php?uid=129478830432717&topic=233

Also in case you missed it hears the link to the radio interview I did this morning on WRVA 1140 AM with  Jimmy Barrett.
http://www.1140wrva.com/cc-common/podcast/single

This first image represents the early Tuesday morning European model and as you can see the European model was showing a historic hurricane hitting eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.  The European model showed a strong category 4  –almost a category  5 — hurricane making landfall between Morehead city  and in Wilmington NC   then tracking north very close to a I-95 through eastern North Carolina.     Once Irene reached   the  VA  NC state line  the  Model   showed IRENE  bending slightly to the NNE  and tracking very close to Williamsburg Virginia and then up into the northern portions of the Chesapeake Bay and near  Philadelphia.  This sort track of for a major East coast hurricane would be very unusual given what we typically see with an East coast hurricane track but it it would not be unprecedented.

The    early  Tuesday Morning   European  model  sceanrio  would  however bring  major damage to many areas and  would bring hurricane conditions across all of eastern Virginia as well as eastern North Carolina and much of eastern Maryland into southern New Jersey.  The KEY point here is that the European model developed IRENE to such intensity that even as IRENE weekend ….as all  eastern NC  hurircanes so  when  the  cross North Carolina    Irene  would still be a major event as it moved up into eastern Virginia and Maryland.   And that   is an important point because if hurricane Irene does NOT reach category 4 status but still takes this same sort track ….then conditions will not be nearly as severe as what the European model is showing.

I   tried to make that point clear in the radio broadcast —that as a ominous  ansd  extreme  as European model solution with hurricane Irene   was showing…  three important things MUST happen for that solution to work out.  FIRST  hurricane IRENE  reach category 4 status .   SECOND  Irene  has to make landfall between Morehead city and Wilmington  NC  .  THIRD   Irene has to track over eastern North Carolina and passed west of Norfolk VA .

The early morning GFS model did not agree and continues to show the hurricane IRENE  bending to the right.  This model continues to  show this trend because of the strong cold front the model is showing moving through the Midwest this weekend.   I am not a fan of the GFS model and I  have made that clear for number different reasons.  However that does not mean the GFS   could  NOT  be correct.    here have been  times  where the European model has gotten something wrong and the GFS model has been  correct.

But what the GFS model appears to be phasing the cold front and the upper air feature   (known as the trough )  with the IRENE into one big feature …..almost as if the model does not see  IRENE  as a hurricane but as some sort of coastal storm in the winter months.  If the GFS model did not have this bias  over doing this sort of phasing ….I would not be nearly as reluctant to accept the GFS solution in bending IRENE  to the coast.

On the midday Tuesday afternoon runs… again the GFS    has IRENE over to the right …taking here  across the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds of eastern North Carolina and coming out over the northern Outer Banks (Corolla)  and passing east of  Norfold by  50 miles and then heading up towards eastern New England.  If anything the 12z  GFS run was further to the east then the early morning   or 0z GFS  run.  Indeed many of the 12z hurricane models reflected that shift.

The afternoon European model was a little further to the east but not nearly to the same degree and continue to show an inland track with the European model taking it over eastern North Carolina then riding up  over  Norfolk   then just off  to the east of  Salisbury / Ocean City Maryland and then  over  or just offshore of cape May  New Jersey.  This is a track very similar to the historic hurricane of 1821 which bought hurricane conditions to Norfolk Virginia Salisbury Maryland and NYC .  In fact  that was the ONLY  hurricane in history to ever strike NYC directly.  Again the European model this afternoon was an extreme solution but it’s not one  that can be rueld  out.

Interestingly  the 18z  hurricane models actually came back to the west a little bit.     Later on Wednesday afternoon I probably will be issuing some forecast maps for the various areas over North Carolina Virginia Maryland and Delaware with respect to possible scenarios and the best and worst case conditions.

    

Throughout all this  keep in mind ….  the further east you are  then the worst the conditions will be.   In North Carolina if you’ are west of I95 conditions   then   things should not be that bad on Saturday   — some rain and some wind but it will not be a major event.  In Central Virginia  as one  moves  WEST  of I95 into the Piedmont conditions will rapidly and improve and not be nearly as severe as what you are going to see over eastern Virginia.  And close   the  closer you are  towards  Hampton roads and the lower Chesapeake Bay the worst conditions will be there as well.

In my  opinion …. I think the critical time in the forecast models will be Thursday.  By that time the various weather models should have a very good idea of what the cold front is actually going to look like.  Right now all these weather models are guessing that this cold front and trough in the jet stream that moves into the Midwest is going be a strong enough to bend hurricane Irene to the right.  In particular the GFS model and the hurricane models which are run off the GFS are showing that.  It’s possible that the cold front and the trough will not be that strong so that could be a shift back to the west and the hurricane models on Thursday.

Lastly if on Thursday we are not seeing a shift back to the west and the hurricane models continue to show Irene tracking to the east then I will make significant changes in the forecast.

 

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2200  EDT  AUG 22

There have been some major developments with the global or large scale weather models regarding the development of hurricane Irene and they are important of elements for  ALL of   North Carolina and much of central and Eastern Virginia as  central Mayland   Delaware  as well l as the lower Maryland Eastern shore.

Irene is now   moving at  285   or  290  degrees … WNW .  This means that she is going to be pulling away from the north coast of the Dominican Republic on the big island of Hispaniola.   At Midday  he proximity of that large island   was   disrupting  the circulation around the system which is why  Irene  was not rapidly intensify.  Now this evening…     of coiurse she has  pulled away   from the  North coast of    Hispanola   and  she   has  reached   Category 2  status.
All the weather models at midday  and   this afternoon continue to show hurricane Irene becoming a major  ( CAT 3)   if not severe ( CAT 4) hurricane.  The   0Z  AUG 22    run of the European model for example strengthened  IRENE to a strong category 4   hurricane (929mb)    when she  makes  landfall late on August 27 near the Wilmington North Carolina coast.
           

The 0z  CANADIAN finally  got a   clue….

 

But NOT  the 0z  AUG 22   run of the GFS …   The  0z  GFS   Model   from early Monday Morning   showed  IRENE   hitting  Jacksonville  FL/ Savannah  GA area .. something  that has happened  1 time in 140 years.!!  Then   the GFS   has Irene  STALLING   over   GS  SC   for 48 hrs !!

Now   if this   solution wasn’t   goofy enough for ya…  12 hours later    the  12z  Monday  GFS  run      now had  a TOTALLY  different solution!  Instead of showing IRENE  stalled over   GA   and SC  on a  almost Imposisble   track….   the   12Z  GFS   now took  Irene  NE along the coast ONLY   hitting  Cape Hattera and   cape Cod mass!!        One  run  well  inland   next run almost out to sea!!    Like I  have said folks  many   many times…..   when it comes to Hurricane forecasting  past  72   or 84  hours    it is a piece of crap.   Its   sucks….BAD.

 Even worse   is  that  all of the  Hurricane  Models    are  run off the    Crappy   GFS   grid   which makes   them   even  worse.    Does anyone recall the last time the GFDL had  a    damn clue?   or the HWRF  did   not have a run  that  made you bust  out laughing ??
 After seeing the  12z  operational G FS and the  18z  hurricane models weather weenie after weather weenie as well as inept TV forecaster after inept TV forecast  preceded to declare that Irene was  likely to bend to the right and skim the coast and  it  may not be a significant threat after all.    While    this sort of thing  should be  expected  with  weather weenies…   with TV meteorologists should at least be able to do some basic synoptic meteorology which clearly many them  did not. .  The reason why the 12z   GFS has   a more pronounced bend to the northeast track with Irene ….is because the model is doing something which it should not be doing.

At day five or 120 hours there is another cold front and upper trough moving through the jet stream across the Great Lakes and Eastern Canada.  The 12z GFS model is over developing the trough.  This is a characteristic bias or flaw in the model  as it  loves to do this sort of thing in the medium range.  Because the trough is deeper and stronger ….  it  acts as a Bending force to push Irene to the northeast and out to sea.

The problem is that  NO  other model solution supports the trough that  deep moving  thru the Great Lakes with the same intensity  and  size that the G FS does.  If there was some other model support than I would accept the possible turn to the northeast as Irene approach to North Carolina coast  ….but since there is no other support for the GFS solution I simply disregard it.

Then we had the 12 Z European model come out which shows a frighteningly powerful scenario.  The European model keeps Irene as a category 4 hurricane making landfall at Wilmington  (938mb) .  This is the third run in a row  that this   model has Irene making landfall at Wilmington   — as oppsoed to the GFS   swinging  widely from one solution to another.

   

anyway… from Wilmington the European model takes Irene due north and then begins to bend it as a reaches Richmond Virginia slightly to the northeast taking it over Baltimore and up to Philadelphia by August 29.  This sort of inland track is a little unusual but the European model with its superior model resolution and physics is clearly seeing the western side of the Bermuda High much better than the GFS model.

Interesting  the Canadian model now looks very much like the European which is another sign that the European solution is probably going to be correct.
In addition  the 18z GFS   showed a trend back to the west and now takes Irene over Eastern North Carolina and right through southeastern Virginia and Hampton roads — which is  a  track  very similar to what the European model showing.  One of the rules that medium range weather forecasters use is that when the GFS and the European model do  NOT agre … and the very next run of the GFS  comes out and it looks like the European ….that isa  sign that the European model is usually going to be correct.

The new 0z suite of hurricane models has just come out and it is showing a band back to the west a little bit when you compare them to the 18 Z hurricane models

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1800  EDT   21 AUG
During the day on Sunday all of the major global models except for the pathetically wretched the British or   UKMET model  showed a significant shift to the east both at the  0z  and 12z   model cycle  runs.  We knew this is going to occur when late last night the hurricane center readjusted the LLC  – low level center of circulation underneath a massive thunderstorms.  Often times when we see the tropical depression shift into tropical storm status  there is is jump in the low level center…  Usually to the north but not always.

However  this little shift to the north  of the LLC   may not appear to be very significant   to you   but it   does have   major implications for the overall storm track of tropical storm IRENE .  It now appears likely that IRENE  is going to pass very close to were exactly on top of the island of Puerto Rico.  But the North  shift in the  center increases the probability that IRENE will stay JUST north of the island of Hispaniola  and probably stay north of Eastern Cuba.

             

This increases the chances of the system staying out over water and becoming stronger  a  but it also  DECREASES  the chances of southern FL being hit.   As I stated yesterday the further north  IRENE  is  as  she  reaches   75   west Longitude  the   SOONER  she will turn  NW   then NNW  then N.

BRITISH MODEL  … note how it is again   by itself…

 All of the 12z  Sunday  Global Models –   except for the useless British model  — shifted further east AGAIN!  The Canadian model which early Saturday morning was showing a hit for New Orleans has shifted and 36 hours and now takes a system over Eastern North Carolina and Cape Hatteras.   As I discussed on Saturday this was likely to happen because  IRENE was that the far edge of the model grid.  The  GFS  and   European Model also shift east and now show a landfall AUG 27   close to Charleston SC  and then a track up through Central North Carolina passing over Charlotte and then into central  VA ….  over  Richmond  –  then over  DCA  BWI and PHL  on the 28th.

          
Rainfall amounts will be impressive and in many ways is quite possible that we may see rainfall amounts close to what we saw in  FLOYD in 1999.   The 0Z  and  12z GFS   show  huge area of rainfall amounts up to 6 inches and that  is based upon a minimal type of hurricane;  IF  IRENE  were to reach category   3   status the rainfall amounts could be even higher.

6z   GFS   sunday  aug 21   run  RAINFALL FORECAST              12z   AUG 21   RAINBFALL FORECAST 
                                       
 Ok  DT… cut to the   Chase…  what do    YOU think is  going to happen?
First ….let me make a   KEY point. One of the reasons I  fo  out of my  way to do this Model  analysis   with these various  weather models in this extended range  is  becuase I  think I have a  unusual   perspective  about  weather  Models  which most weather hobbyists and meteorologist don’t have  and I believe this difference in philosophy is what gives me the edge.
 Weather models are suppose to reflect the actual atmosphere– they do not drive weather systems.  The atmosphere drives the weather systems and the hurricane models or regular weather models are suppose to reflect the atmosphere.

This  point may not seem like a really big philosophical or significant deal to uou …. but it actually is.  This image represents the jet stream at  500 mb and it is from the  12z  Sunday, August 21 run of the GFS  I have highlighted the features so   that you can understand what  is  going to happen

Because I see the upper air features first I  have a differnt  grasp   understanding what  hurricane  or “regular”   global models are going to  show   with a  particular scenario.  As a result when I see a weather model show a goofy scenario   — for example the 0z Canadian model  on Saturday morning   that showed  IRENE   moving into New Orleans… I can reject it out of hand.

IRENE is going to turn to the NW…then NNW… then N  into a   “GAP”    which will exists  over the  Southeast  US.   This gap will occur   becuase of the  huge ridge and heat dome over the Rockies and  southwest only externds  to the   eastern  Plains…. and  the and the Bermuda High in the Western Atlantic Ocean.  This gap is a weakness in the atmosphere which will allow IRENE to  make that turn  and   make landfall  in the Carolinas probably in SC.

      
This sort of track is very typical of what we see with   Classic East coast hurricanes.  In  2003  we had a unusual storm by the name of hurricane Isabel and that this storm in the middle of September  but  Isabel  did NOT come up the coast.    Instead  Isabel came in from the western Atlantic Ocean in a SE  to NW trajectory slamming into eastern North Carolina and driving up towards  Richmond.    That was a very unusual track  and the last time we saw that was with the 1933 Chesapeake Bay hurricane .  Most East coast hurricanes do NOT  take that track.  Instead    they usually  have a track something like what we saw with hurricane Gloria in 1985    Bob in 1991 or FLOYD  1999.  In fact the Floyd analogy is a pretty good one  with Irene and the excess of rainfall amounts that the models are already producing only supports the Floyd 1999   East coast hurricane as a analog to what might happen with IRENE. 

The rainfal  over    SC    NC     all of  VA  and MD  and DE  as  well as   eastern  PA  and NJ  will be  heavy… and  in  many places   excessive. Amounts  of  6-10″ are likely  and Philly has  already  set their  record for their  wettest   AUG ever.

For folks in central and Eastern Virginia as long as IRENE does not build to category 3  or 4 status then does does not look like   this will be a major wind event so it is  SEEMS  that  Irene will be very different from what we saw with Isabel in 2003.    Again keep in mind that this is assuming …  and this is a big assumption… that IRENE does not reach category  3  or 4 status.