OUT TO SEA ?? more like out of their Minds !!! IRENE THREAT INCREASING FOR VA NC e. MD

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,HURRICANE SEASON 2012 | Wednesday 24 August 2011 11:01 pm

2330    EDT  AUG 24

Over the past two days I have tried to maintain a fair sense of balance in figuring out what is going to happen to hurricane Irene and the computer models. Over on the Facebook page and on this web site I have tried to emphasize that there is more to forecasting meteorology — whether it’s hurricanes are snowstorms –than simply reading what ever these stupid models happened to tell you.

I have tried to show you that there was a level of uncertainty here and that many of these TV forecasters and the weather channel folks who kept insisting that IRENE was not going to be a significant hurricane threat for the East coast …are now in a whole lot of trouble.     Really folks forecasting in the day 3 to day 7 time frame is NOT guessing.    There IS a rational way to do it.     The model data has begun to shift back to the WEST as I thought it might on this Wednesday afternoon and evening.    However these facts really haven’t changed anybody’s forecast yet.

For example the meteorologist on NBC affiliate in Richmond Virginia suggested that Saturday there might not be any rain at all in Richmond and that it might just be a little wet and rainy in Southeast Virginia.     And over at WAVY TV 10 the local TV   weather Parrot there kept saying Not much was going to happen for se  VA.

I suppose looking strictly at the models from early Wednesday morning one could make that argument. But that is the problem. Your job as a meteorologist is more –or should be more –than simply regurgitating what ever piece of idiocy the model is showing. You are supposed to be able to see a little information past the computer model. I certainly can and I am a lot busier than they are.

It certainly is still possible that hurricane Irene may shift back to the east again and reduce the threat the Eastern North Carolina and Eastern Virginia as well as the lower Maryland Eastern shore. But the concern here is that this event is on Saturday and the forecast that this TV meteorologists was making was on Wednesday. Given the fact we have a category 4 hurricane approaching the east coast I just can not for the life of me figure out why anybody would say that it might not even rain in Richmond.

Later on Thursday I will make some detailed regional forecasts but many you have already seen some of these ideas /forecast r on the Face ook page.

This first image shows you the early WED morning or 0z GFS and as you can see the model continue to take hurricane Irene south and east of Cape Hatteras and out to sea.

     

However the vastly superior European model was not showing that . The Euero showed Irene tracking over very close to Cape Hatteras then paralleling the lower Virginia eastern shore coast and tracking much closer to Ocean city Maryland and Caoe May New Jersey. This would of course present much more serious threat to all southeastern Virginia the northern outer banks the lower Virginia and Maryland Eastern shores and came a New Jersey with potentially a historic hurricane.

Naturally even though the European model is vastly superior practically every single meteorologist up and down theREast coast that was on TV …  pretty much  ignored it.

At midday however the 12z GFS began to shift a little bit to the west

And the midday European continue to show a extremely ominous scenario with a track again one over Hatteras and pounding the hell out of Southeastern Virginia especially the lower Chesapeake Bay …the Virginia and Maryland Eastern shore.. is the coastal areas of Southern Delaware and the Delaware Bay and Southern New Jersey.



What the European model was showing was that Irene was slowing down and the cold front over the Midwest was coming in weaker. As a result the hurricane was bending to the north but NOT NNE along the coast. The threat continued up into NYC long island and much of Eastern New England.

The major change however began with the 18 Z GFS which followed the European model in showing of significantly closer to the coast track –which quite frankly surprised anybody. As you can see from the 18 Z run the eye wall tracks over Hatteras and fairly close to the Virginia Maryland Eastern shore. This can only be viewed as being supportive of the 12 Z European model. This is why the hurricane center at 11:00 PM discussion mentioned that the models are about 30 to 50 miles closer to the coast with hurricane Irene.

        

Even the dimwit in Central Virginia which was forecasting no rain for Richmond have decided to bring back the rain in the forecast but again said it might only been 1-2″ and the might be a few gusty winds but that was about it.

I have   seen the new 0z GFS and it is even more threatening as it continues to take Irene even closer and closer to the coast . It now shows the western eye wall actually making landfall against Morehead city. Keep in mind that this model only 24 HRS ago had Irene 100 miles southeast of Morehead city!!!!! However the GFS continued and now showed the IRENE passing west or just over Hatteras and that out across Nags head North Carolina tracking very close to Sandbridge Virginia and then paralleling the lower Virginia and Maryland Eastern shore’s perhaps fully obliterating Ocean city Maryland with a tremendous wind and storm five.





There is no doubt that up and down the East coast and especially in the mid Atlantic areas some of the incompetent TV mets and southeastern Virginia will have to make MAJOR changes. Mind you these are some of the same TV weather forecasters who forecasted no snow last xmas day and ended up with 12 to 18 inches.

9 Comments »

  1. Comment by Pam — August 25, 2011 @ 1:01 pm

    Dave,
    Have been keeping a close eye on your forcast and have been since I discovered you last year. I keep telling my co-workers that the TV guys are, in your words, “full of crap.” Thanks for keeping us posted and I fully intend to BE PREPARED. We live 1 mile from 95, mile post 41, and with Isabelle kicked our butt! We were hit very hard and I’m not taking any chances with Irene. Keep up the good work!!!!!

  2. Comment by Lorin — August 25, 2011 @ 1:21 pm

    Thanks for pointing out the ridiculous forecast that Tim Duncan made on NBC12. I couldn’t believe it when I heard him say it! Thanks for your excellent work!

  3. Comment by Paul Sullivan — August 25, 2011 @ 1:43 pm

    Dave, spot on and very well written. I understand the idea that the local METS do not want to start a panic and possibly lose their credibility if they are wrong. BUT, they at the very least have the obligation to inform the public of the what is on the other side of the coin regarding the worst case scenario and not to just “sugar coat” the forecast as no big deal. You have a faithful follower here and I only wish I had heard of you in ’03. I “WILL NOT” be caught with my pants down with these goof ball local METS ever again. Thanks for all you do

  4. Comment by April — August 25, 2011 @ 2:49 pm

    Dave,

    Thank you for keeping us informed – you are my only East Coast Weather guy. I know what you say is as close to accurate as t can be, no guessing. Thanks to WRVA for brining you to my attention. Just at the Pam commented we are preparing – just in case. No last minute runs for TP or H20 – we are ready thanks to our ‘accurate’ weather man.

  5. Comment by Hurricane Irene — August 25, 2011 @ 5:37 pm

    I’m coming to a neighborhood near your to drop trees on your houses and cars! You think you won’t see any rain in Richmond? I’ll show you buncha girly men!

    Love,

    Hurricane Irene

  6. Comment by Philip — August 26, 2011 @ 6:49 am

    Looks like at 2am Friday that Irene is turning east. The angle now would miss Hatteras even, and if it continues well..take a look at the latest position compared to this morning.
    This looks more in line with the HWRF path. Intuitively .. Ha ha guys, I’m in jersey so have an ax, it looks like it may move more east than most are predicting. that’s my call out to sea.also I hear 100% hysteria on the weather stations. In fact it seems the European models are all these weather jockies relating to, hoping for a storm that rakes the entire east coast and pounds lower manhattan! Ain’t going to happen.

  7. Comment by Philip — August 26, 2011 @ 12:02 pm

    I didn’t say it had turned east .. Turning! Turning is not turned! Look at the longitudinal points, the eye is- was moving directly north, now slightly more east as of the last update. That is a turn from it’s constant westerly course.
    That trajectory is expected.

    NOT

  8. Comment by Sandra — August 26, 2011 @ 9:54 pm

    Only time will tell. They want to run to the I told you so, I was prepared when the previous agenda mouth breathers left every one to flap in the breeze. If the “Watermen” bring their Jon-boats to the house I might hunker down. They are saying it might be a cat 1. Panic in 5-4-3, never mind!

  9. Comment by wxrisk — August 27, 2011 @ 7:48 pm

    DUDE you are Moron… really

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