1615 29 AUGUST 2011…
Look I do not have power back either and judging by how many major trees are in top of and twisted in Power lines around this part of chesterfield county… well it going to be a WHILE. So I dont know how to say what I have to say. Already I have been accused of engaging in hype. But those of you who think I am either are new to this site and dont know me and are missing some key points.
Look I was NOT guy saying ” it might even rain on Saturday aug 27 in central VA”. I am not the guy saying to folks in Hampton Roads on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning (AUG 24-25) that ”Irene was not going to be a big deal in hampton Roads. And I am sure as hell NOT the guy (guys) who issued Hurricane Warning for friggin Philadelphia and NYC for god’s sale. All I am…. is the guy who got it right days out and didnt forecast a landfall in Savannah GA either. So please get a clue and dont talk to ME about HYPE!
THE GOOD NEWS the long LABOR day weekend looks not just great but firggin great… wow… sunny skies warm– but NOT hot— temps low humidity. There will be a cold front coming into the all of the Northeast –from NC to Maine which will bring some showers and storms…. as we move into the AUTUMN 2011.
TD 12 SOON TO BE KATIA.
Yeah this one has potential. Its BIG and its way south at 9 degrees North Latitude and it IS going to develop into major cape Verde Hurricane. It is going to be the main focus of east coast weather for some time .
The 12z AUG 28 run of the Euro developed TD into a cat 4/5 cane near the SE Bahamas SEPT7 as a trough and cold front comes into the Great Lakes and Northeast. The 0z EURO AUG 29 run this morning showed a MASSIVE trough moving into the eastern US… real Autumn weather which IF correct Knock KATIA waaaaay out to sea.
so far so good. Now here comes the 12z AUG MODELS…
The 12z GFS re-curves the cane EARLY so that it turns N near Bermuda races north and merges into a big Ocean Low off of southeast Canada. This seems to support the OTS out to sea solution.
But keep in mind that the GFS– good for shit– model suffers from Model resolution problem after 180 hours so…. this track is without any value or merit whatsoever.
The 12z GFS ensembles are VASTLY DIFFERENT and speaks for themselves …. and do NOT show a clear case for OTS or a HIT or something CLOSE to the coast that might impact say cape Hatteras and / or cape Cod.
The 12z tuesday AUG 29 run of the Euro is well SCARY. It has KATIA tracking Just NE then N of Puerto Rico BUT also close enough to slide Under the East coast cold front/ trough in the Jet stream. This Places KATIA
as monsterous category 5 hurricane near the southeast Bahamas .
So if the cold front/ trough in the Jet stream misses KATIA SEPT 5 she keeps heaing into to the se US.
If one wishes to use the ANALOG method for KATIA …if one looks at TC in he 1st week of SEPT and where they have gone/ tracked one can use this image.
In looking at the top 10 analogs to TD 12/ Katia position only 3 of the 10 were Total US Misses.
Now folks this is TIMING problem. Just because the euro show KATIA being EXACTLY at the right position so the cold front/ trough misses her does not mean she will be missed . There are ton of variables to keep in mind but the issue is NOT decided.