TD #12 — SOON TO BE KATIA… UM.. HOW DO I SAY THIS?

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,HURRICANE SEASON 2012 | Monday 29 August 2011 9:00 pm

1615  29  AUGUST   2011…

Look  I  do not have power back either  and  judging  by   how many major trees  are  in top of  and twisted   in Power lines around   this part of   chesterfield county… well it going to be a   WHILE.   So I  dont know  how to say  what I have to say.   Already I    have been accused  of   engaging in  hype.  But those of you  who think I am   either are new to this  site  and dont know  me and   are   missing  some key points.

Look I was   NOT guy saying  ” it might  even rain on Saturday aug 27 in central VA”.   I am not the guy saying to  folks in Hampton Roads on Wednesday night  and  early  Thursday morning   (AUG 24-25)  that ”Irene   was   not going to be a big deal in  hampton Roads.   And I am sure as hell NOT  the guy (guys)    who issued  Hurricane Warning  for   friggin Philadelphia and  NYC for   god’s sale.   All I am…. is the guy    who  got it right   days out  and didnt forecast  a landfall in Savannah   GA either.  So please    get a  clue  and dont talk  to ME    about  HYPE!

   THE  GOOD NEWS     the  long LABOR  day weekend   looks  not  just    great but firggin  great… wow… sunny  skies warm– but NOT hot— temps   low humidity.   There will be a cold front  coming into the    all of the   Northeast –from NC  to Maine   which will  bring some showers and storms….  as  we  move into the  AUTUMN 2011.

TD  12      SOON  TO BE    KATIA.
 Yeah  this one   has potential. Its BIG  and its  way south  at   9  degrees North Latitude   and it IS  going  to  develop  into  major cape  Verde   Hurricane.   It is going  to be the main focus of  east coast weather  for some time . 

The  12z AUG 28  run of the  Euro  developed  TD   into a   cat  4/5  cane  near the  SE  Bahamas   SEPT7  as a   trough and cold front   comes into the  Great Lakes  and Northeast.  The   0z  EURO   AUG 29 run this  morning  showed a MASSIVE  trough    moving into the   eastern  US… real  Autumn weather  which   IF correct   Knock  KATIA   waaaaay out to sea.

 so far  so  good.  Now here  comes  the 12z    AUG  MODELS…

 The  12z  GFS    re-curves the   cane   EARLY    so that it  turns  N near Bermuda    races north and merges into a  big  Ocean Low off  of southeast    Canada.    This seems to support  the  OTS   out  to sea solution.

 But  keep in mind  that the GFS– good for shit– model  suffers  from Model  resolution  problem after 180   hours so….   this  track   is without  any value or merit whatsoever. 

 The 12z   GFS  ensembles are VASTLY   DIFFERENT and speaks  for themselves   …. and do  NOT show a clear case  for   OTS  or a HIT or something   CLOSE  to the coast   that   might    impact  say cape Hatteras  and / or cape Cod.

The   12z   tuesday AUG 29  run of the   Euro is well SCARY.  It has KATIA   tracking    Just  NE then N of  Puerto Rico BUT also close enough to    slide Under the  East coast cold front/ trough in the Jet stream.  This  Places KATIA 
as monsterous   category 5  hurricane  near the southeast Bahamas .

 

So if the cold front/   trough  in the Jet stream misses    KATIA  SEPT  5  she keeps    heaing  into    to the  se  US.

If one  wishes to use the  ANALOG method   for  KATIA …if one looks at TC in  he  1st week of   SEPT  and where they have gone/ tracked   one can use this  image.
    In looking at the  top 10  analogs   to  TD 12/ Katia  position   only  3 of the 10  were  Total  US Misses. 

Now folks this is TIMING  problem.  Just because the euro  show KATIA   being  EXACTLY  at the  right  position  so the cold front/ trough misses  her does not mean she  will be missed .  There are  ton of  variables   to keep  in mind   but the issue  is NOT  decided.

8 Comments »

  1. Comment by ClayinBonAir — August 30, 2011 @ 2:59 am

    Hi DT:

    As always, I appreciate your detailed analysis of what’s in the pipeline, and your timely posts keeping us up to date as the models change.

    ClayinBonAir

  2. Comment by B Rippe — August 30, 2011 @ 10:22 am

    Dave,
    1) Right there with you here in Chester. I am GUESSING Saturday before we get power, Just off Happy Hill here. Shhh I am using the internet at work!
    2) Never a need to defend yourself. You rock. Keep up the great work.
    3) If forecasting were an exact science, everyone would do it. That’s why we appreciate your expertise, candor & explainations. My wife & I enjoy your FB posts as well.
    B

  3. Comment by EasyNow — August 30, 2011 @ 11:48 am

    Hey man, you are a good forecaster or whatever you want to call yourself but you got to relax a little. You quickly gloat when you are right and others aren’t and easily offended by negative comments. If you are going to do this great, thanks for the service. However you got to expect the nay-sayers and rise above it. You also need to stop beating your chest when you are right over the media forecasters. I don’t know why you have such a disdain for these guys and I don’t care. Doesn’t have anything to do with good reporting, so leave that out. Keep up the good work, but keep the personal junk out of it.

  4. Comment by Pam — August 30, 2011 @ 1:09 pm

    Thanks Dave and keep up the good work. Keep us posted on Katia.
    K9Momof9 in PG

  5. Comment by Wes — August 30, 2011 @ 2:29 pm

    I was just told about your web sight 8/24/11 and read all of the posts since. you obviously have done your homework on these subjects. They are really full of information I like that i cant get anywhere else.

  6. Comment by RandyinSouthHill — August 30, 2011 @ 2:46 pm

    Dave, good work. I think the national media hyped the effects of Irene for the Northeast especially after the downgrade was observed before and after landfall was made. However, forecast for outer banks, central and se virginia, maryland shore were not overblown due to the lateness of the downgrade in strength. Weather is not an exact science I know but you are the best. You are my go to guy for forecasts. Keep up the good work.

  7. Comment by Steve in N. Chesterfield — August 30, 2011 @ 3:36 pm

    Dave: I love your FCST’s, and personally I hate the local regurgitators as well. Blunt and to the point works, screw people who have thin skin.

    As a novice WX guy (A few classes when sitting for my Master’s License) in my young days, even I had about the same inclinations of Irene you had.

    One of my personal predictions came true with the damage and intensity between Richmond and Roanoke Rapids.

    Katia will be a monster, and we can all hope it slides a bit North and gets caught up in the trough coming south. We shall see.

    Keep up the great work!

  8. Comment by Brian Robi NH — August 30, 2011 @ 3:49 pm

    DT – you nailed Irene pretty darn well. Katia is a serious threat. Hope she’s a miss for all; although some analog years would argue she’s got a better chance to mess with the East Coast, than not.

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