2145 edt SEPT 1 2011
Hello from WINTERGREEN RESORT in the Shenandoah mountains. Need to get sway from the lies and crap spewing from Dominion Power about how all these work crews are headed for Chester VA. Day after day … the lying gets to be a bit much. OK lets get to it.
The early morning THURSDAY Models all clearly showed KATIA turning out to sea and tracking fair close to Bermuda and NOT being a threat to anyone. The early morning models did so BECAUSE they have Katia too far to the N so the cold front and trough in Je stream have to grab Katia and take her east. And the developing system in the Gulf that will beome Lee was shown to be moving into western and southern TX and NOT bringing heavy / torrential rains to the interior SE CONUS and into EWVA and VA.
Much has changed – EXACTLY as I said they would in Yesterdays –AUG 31 update. ALL the models on this Thursday afternoon has KATIA tracking due West and NOT getting picked up by the SEPT 5 East coast trough that moves out into the western Atlantic ocean. KATIA is STILL a threat and still has to be watched .
This is important because this allows Katia to turn WEST. In fact KATIA all day has moved due West and NOT WNW ….and is still moving WEST right now. In addition the weakening today also favors Katia staying West for a PROLONGED period of time. ( reasoning– weaker Tropical depreessions or Storms do not build or extend higher into the atmosphere so they follow the Low levels winds where was Hurricanes Follow Upper Levels much more so).
12z THURSDAY SEPT 1 GFS RUN… again has KATIA much further North than ANY other model… which is a strong sign the Model’s cold or poleward Bias with Tropical cyclones is working. The GFS has Katia so far North that the SEPT 9-10 cold front HAS to kick her east.
The 12z THURSDAY SEPT 1 EURO has KATIA hundreds of miles to the SW and she turns due west and comes close — within 200 miles of southeast FL. These maps show WHY… essentially IF Katia is that far south at SEPT 4 the East coast trough of SEPT 5 will by pass her and Katia turns WEST. This increases the threat of KATIA making a close pass to the se or middle Atlantic coast.
BUT….odds still favor OTS– Out to sea track. But It could be close.
The 18z GFS has seen reality and has Katia still missing the East coast but passing within 150 miles of Cape Hatteras.
The 12z SEPT 1 day 7.5 Canadian also shows Katia coming due west THEN getting picked up by a MASSIVE east coast trough SEPT 8.
The 12z NOGAPS with its vastly improved 4DVAR package shows this WEST track and also has Katia getting close to FL and the south east US coast. BUT again it also has the massive East coast trough and cold front SEPT 9 kicking her N then NE…
1800 EDT AUG 31 2011
God I am tired. and NOT happy at all and very stressed. Let get right to it.
The 12z GFS Model AUG 31 screws up the development of LIKELY TC– tropical Cyclone – in the Gulf of Mexico over the long holiday weekend. The Model develops this system — LIKELY to be called “LEE“ by foming it over the central Gulf then moving it into the LA/ DELTA region by SEPT 4. NO other model does this– as you will see. BUT this has MAJOR complications for the Forecast for the ENTIRE EAST COAST.
The GFS Model still brings in pretty good early Autumn Trough in the jet stream / cold front at the surface into the Midwest the East coast BY SEPT 4-5 . That is Unchanged . However because the wretched GFS has LEE or LEE’s remains over the Delta ….the Model pulls LEE and his rains Northeast UP the front and into SC NC VA MD DE PA NJ NY and eastern New England MONDAY SEPT 5.
Since so many TV weather folks and TWC kiss the GFS ass every day… their forecasts are LIKELY to be quite wet for Labor day along the East coast. My forecast is NOT nearly as wet. To be sure there may be SOME showers SEPT 5th with the cold front passage BUT nothing like the heavy rains the 12z AUG 31 GFS is showing.
But beyond that the 12z GFS Model STALLS the SEPT 5 cold front over the Appalachian Mountains from NE GA to western NC western VA WVA western MD western and central PA…. and this right is deluge by the Model in the 6-10 day.
My view ? Bullshit…
The EUROPEAN Model as well as the Canadian and British model– the Ukmet —ALL have LEE over far western Gulf through n SEPT 6. These models either develop LEE into a Hurricane near the TX coast OR move him inland BUT the key point here is that they do NOT bring LEE North into the LA Delta . Since Lee on these models is NJOT there… these Models have NO heavy rains on the East coast SEPT 5.
KATIA.. she is cranking along Nicely as you can see here.
A quick Glance at all the data seems to show a recurve out to sea track. But I am NOT yet confident about that … Yet. The Key point remains WHERE will KATIA be SEPTM 4-5 as she moves NJE then N of Puerto Rico.
The 12z european Model and the new 18z Hurricane Models shows KATIA turning back West SEPT 5 -6-7 as the 1st cold front misses here and she neats the central Bahams. The Euro show the 2nd cold front.. a major trough sweeping through the Midwest and East coast SEPT 9-10 will kick her east.
18z HURRICANE MODELS
So far so good. BUT there is a risk that the 2nd cold front COULD be weaker or delayed. IF that happens as Katia is heading West NW she could come very close to the NC eastern coast. I am NOT forecasting that right now But I am NOT ruling it out right now. Sometimes in science we just dont things. Rather than BS you I tell you wnat I know what I dont know and when I will know some more.