16 NOVEMBER 1000 HRS EST
From what I can see there is absolutely no reason at all to chaage to current attern or even begin to speculate WHEN things might change. I know for the ENERGY markets and especially Nat gas … those who were counting on a cold DEC and a cold DJF are already crying in their beer ( for some reason) and some of energy vendors are not looking very good right now…
The first vort max and short wave dropping southeast down the Br Columbia coast will develop into the 2nd BIG event of the COLD season OCT 1 – MARCH 30 for the nation. The rains over the Pacific NW over the next 7 days will be impressive and the mtn snwos evemn more so.
The 2nd short wave coming into southern CALIF is going to being BEST rains in the last 6 months to the DROUGHT ridden areas of TX and OK NOV 22-23 .
If we start out by taking a look at the day 9 European and GFS hemispheric maps we can see that the intense large PV (polar vortex) that is situated over the Yukon and Alaska is not being forecasted to move in any way …shape …or form from when compared to the model data showed a few days ago. Not only does this feature dominate the entire hemisphere a pattern but also the moderate negative anomaly over the day the straits approaching the Greenland ensures that the NAO stays strongly positive for the next seven days at least.
The one thing that all the data does agree on is that the EPO stays strongly positive and given the humongous PV in the Alaska - Yukon region that obviously makes sense and should not be in any dispute.
The 0z and 6z GFS operational and the ensemble are trying to bring the NAO and the AO down to near neutral levels by 11-15 day… But for the life of me I cannot figure out why or how this actually occurs given the fact that the enormous and intense PV apparently is not moving from the gulf Alaska anytime soon.
Indeed if we take a look at the 0z GFS ensemble and the GFS ensemble mean at 240 hrs we see the humongous PV sitting their dominating the entire pattern over Alaska and the Yukon.
For those of you that have the European ensembles that Model’s ensembles shows nothing that is substantially different from what the 0z CMC ensemble… the 0z GFS ensemble or 0z NOGAPS ensembles are all showing at day 10 and at day 15.
The 0z CMC ensemble is VERY warm over all of the eastern half of the CONUS in the 6-10 day and the 11-15 day… at both the the mean and each individual member
as is the 0Z GFS ensemble..
All this being said I remain unconvinced that this massive PV is going to stay in its current position through say DEC 15 or the rest of this winter. It would NOT take a major displacement of the PV in the Yukon/Alaska to cause a significant impact on the pattern. For example IF the PV were to say slide west towards the Aleutiains Island …. then the entire pattern over western N America would change and cold air would move into the eastern Conus. OR… if for example the the PV were to slide a few hundred miles to the east into central Canada … that too would have a profound impact on the current mild/ super mild pattern.