16  NOVEMBER   1000  HRS  EST

From what I can see there is absolutely no reason at all to chaage to   current  attern  or even begin to speculate    WHEN things might   change. I know for the   ENERGY  markets and especially Nat gas  … those   who were  counting on a  cold  DEC  and a cold  DJF  are  already crying in their  beer ( for some reason)  and  some of  energy vendors  are   not looking very good right now…
 The first  vort max and   short wave  dropping southeast down the Br  Columbia coast  will develop into   the 2nd  BIG event of the   COLD  season OCT 1 – MARCH 30   for the nation.   The rains  over the Pacific NW over the next 7 days will be  impressive   and the  mtn snwos  evemn more so.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20111116/00/gfs_namer_168_precip_ptot.gif

 The  2nd short  wave coming into southern CALIF is  going to being BEST  rains   in the last 6 months   to the   DROUGHT   ridden areas of  TX and OK NOV 22-23 .
Longer term…  

 If we start out by taking a look at the day 9  European and GFS hemispheric maps we can see that the intense large PV  (polar vortex) that is situated over the Yukon and Alaska is not  being forecasted to move in any way …shape …or form from when   compared to the  model data showed   a few days ago.  Not only does this feature dominate the entire hemisphere a pattern but also the moderate negative anomaly over the day the straits approaching the Greenland ensures that the NAO  stays strongly positive for the next seven days at least.

The one thing that all the data does agree on is that the  EPO  stays  strongly positive  and given the humongous  PV in the Alaska -  Yukon region that obviously makes sense and should not be in any dispute.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/compare.we.png

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/compare.pn.png
The  0z and 6z GFS  operational and the  ensemble are trying to bring the NAO and the AO  down to   near neutral levels by  11-15  day…  But for the life of me I cannot figure out why or how this actually occurs given the fact that the enormous and intense  PV    apparently is not moving from the gulf Alaska anytime soon.

 
Indeed if we take a look at the  0z  GFS   ensemble  and the  GFS  ensemble mean  at  240   hrs  we see the humongous   PV  sitting their dominating the entire pattern over Alaska and the Yukon.  

For those of you that have the European  ensembles   that Model’s ensembles  shows nothing that is substantially   different from what the   0z CMC  ensemble… the 0z GFS  ensemble or 0z  NOGAPS   ensembles  are all showing at  day 10  and at day 15.

The 0z  CMC    ensemble is  VERY  warm   over  all of the eastern half of the  CONUS    in the 6-10 day and the 11-15  day… at both the the  mean and each  individual   member

 as is the 0Z  GFS  ensemble.. 

All this being said I remain   unconvinced  that this  massive PV  is going to  stay  in its current position through say   DEC 15  or the rest of this winter.   It would NOT   take  a major  displacement   of the  PV   in  the  Yukon/Alaska to cause  a  significant impact on the pattern.    For example IF  the  PV were to say  slide  west   towards the  Aleutiains Island ….  then the  entire   pattern over   western N America would  change  and cold air would move into the  eastern Conus.   OR… if  for  example the   the PV were to slide  a few hundred miles to the east   into   central Canada  … that too  would have a profound impact on the current mild/ super mild pattern.