SPRING 2012 FORECAST

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,SEASONAL FORECASTS | Saturday 17 March 2012 11:27 am

If  I had   my    wishes I would of  released  it  in late  FEB   or MARCH 1  … but that is Just not possible.

 some of you may to  have to  COPY  and patse this link 

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/SPRING2012/SPRING2012public.htm

SPRING TIME 2012

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL | Thursday 15 March 2012 2:08 pm

1400 EST  15 MARCH  2012….   STARDATE  201203.15

 

Well my post winter break is over so   it is  time to start posting  and  doing weather analysis again.  For those of you that are new to the website as a general rule after the Winter ….I usually take a week or two off just to recharge my batteries.  In addition I  have   to switch   my  focus  on  to the  SPRING forecast for my grain clients.  The SPRING 2012  forecast has already been available for  my   grain and agricultural clients for few weeks …  But there are some contractual obligations about releasing the SPRING  forecast on the web site for the general public  too  early.  However I can announce that the spring forecast will be on the website Friday morning MARCH 16.

This remarkable stretch of exceptional warmth which I predicted  on the  FACEBOOK Page  back on March  1 st  2nd and 3rd…  shows no signs of letting up and  it is quite remarkable.  Of course  the immediate concern  seems to be  that since  SPRING 2012   has jumped off to an early age    WARM   start     (which could be argued that these temperatures relative to normal are downright  “HOT”) …  that   it somehow implies   or increases the chances   that the SUMMER 2012  is going to be a hot and dry   for much of the central and eastern CONUS       ( CONUS  =  contiguous 48 lower   states).   While that concern is only natural the fact is that  IF…  we are going to move into   EL NINO    by MAY 2012  …  rhen the odds would clearly not favor a hot and dry summer over most of the central and eastern  CONUS.

If we take a look at why the pattern has turned  so very warm…  the actual  causes  become  well   kind of obvious.  Once again we have a large deep vortex    (feature  #1 ) centered as it has been all winter long over Alaska and the Bering sea!  That feature still has not yet moved.!!  The persistence of this thing is really remarkable and continues to dominate the entire pattern over the western hemisphere the planet.
And because we have that deep   500 Low or   vortex  over the Bering sea and western Alaska…  this forces the jet stream coming across the northern Pacific south of the vortex to get compacted … SQUASHED!!!   ( feature #2) .  Because of these   enhanced  velocties   in the Pacific jet …. it continues to  crash  these major   weather systems  and    short waves   (upepr air energy)  into Western North America  and carving out deep troughs into British Columbia the Pacific Northwest and the California Coast .    In order to counter this influence of the deep trough on the West Coast the atmosphere responds by developing a  RIDGE   in the Jet stream downstream  . FEATURE  #3.
In addition we still have a very east positive NAO …  Along with a very strong    RIDGE   over the  Azores in the northeast North Atlantic Ocean.  This Ridge  extends into the United Kingdom and all of western   Europe.
Over the next several days a major surge in the Pacific jet is going to carve out a huge trough over the west coast of North America.  And of course the atmosphere has to counter that somehow which in this case means the Ridge  over the  central and   eastern US  is going to get amplified driving north into the great lakes and even into Southern Quebec Canada    starting this weekend and continuing through all of next week.

 


Now if you are located  underneath this RiDGE or  to the east…  It means more amazingly nice weather with lots of sunshine very little rain and warm temperatures.  It  is quite possible this warm dry pattern will last over all of the central and eastern half of the country until the end of the month!  On the other hand  the   deep  trough over the   West coast  and the  Great Basin means more much below normal temperatures times of heavy rain and really miserable conditions for these areas.
Eventually as the deep trough pushes east across   the Rockies and into the Plains significant showers and thunderstorms will develop along the surface cold front.  The Gulf of Mexico will be open for business.   Yesterday — MARCH   14…. the European model was developing a closed   cutoff    DEEP   500 Low  over  the Lower  and  central  Plains    in the   8 to 10 day time frame.  Initially I viewed this development with some skepticism

but after seeing the Thursday morning in midday data it’s pretty obvious that the models are really going gangbusters with this idea of a   closed cutoff    deep 500 Low getting trapped over the eastern portions of the lower Plains …the Delta and the Tennessee Valley.

The development of this system is important because  WHERE   the closed cut off  500 Low   forms will determine what happens to the jet stream over Eastern Canada and the Northeast US.    Yesterday the Wednesday afternoon European model was developing  new   closed  500 Low over  New foundland Canada.  The model  was showing   that the interaction  of this  Low  over Southeast Canada and the    Upper Low  stalled  over the  central Mississippi Valley  would cause   a large cool  HIGH to form over southeastern Canada  — Quebec and eastern Ontario.   This in turn were dry the    BACK DOOR  cold front into all the Northeast us…  as far south as Virginia North Carolina and as far west as Michigan and Ohio.  Keep in mind that the ocean water  temperatures are still frightfully cold so  the any time in the northeast  US    you get an NE   or  EAST  wind   in March and  April…   temperatures will   tumble very quickly especially  along coastal areas.
That being said it is not at all certain that  there will  be  a backdoor cold front.  It’s possible that the models may be over developing this system over southeastern Canada…  so  if that feature turned out to be a lot weaker…  then we end up getting no large cold HIGH forming over Eastern Canada and hence no back were cold front.

As we look towards the end of the month– say the last week of  MARCH  2012  and possibly into early April  2012…  the model data continues to show very strong Pacific jet sending in more energy down from the gulf Alaska into the west coast of Canada and  the US.  Clearly if this happens again that we will  see another strong large   Ridge over the  Midwest and Northeast   happening again..  Indeed the GFS     CMC  and the  ECMWF   11-15  day  all show this happening during the last week of March and  the 1st week of  APRIL.