2230  EDT  31  MAY

Yes  Virginia  we  ARE  going to see  what could be   SIGNIFICANT    and widepsread   severe weather outbreak affecting most of North Carolina …Virginia …West Virginia …Maryland …central and eastern Pennsylvania …and Delaware on Friday June 1.  There are several reasons why this  particular severe weather threat  COULD  be more a significant  severe  weather.

The Thursday  evening  weather map shows a area of LOW pressure developing over  KENTUCKY..   There are numerous Moderate to heavy storms over IND   OH  KY  with Moderate   rain over southern MI.  The  LOW pressure area  will  track NE  from  KY to  Cleveland   then into the  eastern Great Lakes.   The upper level support or the Jet stream that is supporting this Low  …is going to  develop a certain angle   as it  reaches the East Coast.   In the weather  business this is called a NEGATIVE   TILT ;   that is to say the trough alignment  be running northwest to southeast   ( from Michigan to  Virginia).  This alignment in the upper level trough  will enable thunderstorms to develop more rapidly than  they might typically do  with a Ordinary cold front .  In addition this system will  be  pulling up a lot of warm humid air from the Deep south and from the Gulf stream     off the Southeast coast.   Initially skies should be clear    to   Partly cloudy for most of Friday and that could allow temperatures to get close to 90° or 92  especially over central and eastern  Virginia …Maryland and North Carolina.

With each passing model run the data becomes stronger with  regard to the  severity of the thunderstorms as a cold front moves into  far western North  Carolina …West Virginia …and far western portions of Virginia  on Friday morning.

The  KEY  aspect to this  POSSIBLE  widespread  sever  threat  will be the developement of  2nd   LOW  on the  Cold    where the WARM front  Intersect  or  met.  This feature is a  called   a  TRIPLE POINT   Iin the weather  Busioness  and  the 0z  NAM  1JUNE   model  has the   TRIPLE point showing up nicely.    If  the   TRIPLE POINT    develops as the NAM/ WRF  is  showing and  tracks    WEST of Richmond area  thid would palce the worst  storms over the Piedmont into the    DCA Metro area and  northwest VA.

In addition one of the aspects of severe weather here on the East Coast which often gets overlooked is the timing.  In the Midwest and   Plains  the timing issue is   often not that big of a deal…   but on the East coast it is    In this particular case the approach or timing of the cold front will be ideally situated to get maximum amount of heating as the thunderstorms  approach and the cold front crosses these states.  Most of the thunderstorm  should be at or just west of I–95 in North Carolina ..Virginia ..and Maryland   by 7:00 or 8:00 PM Friday.

SPC -  storm prediction center—has been  talking about this threat for 24 hours already.  In the Thursday morning  discussion they mentioned that they might raise the threat  to    MODERATE   RISK for severe /  torandic  storms   for most of North Carolina
…Virginia …and Maryland and this upgrade may occur this evening  or Friday morning before the event actually begins.

Based upon the data I am  looking  late   Thursday …it looks like the biggest threat areas will be from Charlottesville up towards Washington, DC including locations such as Strasburg   Harrisonburg   front Royal   Warrenton     Culpeper   Leesburg  and then into western and Central Maryland including all of  Northern VA/
Washington, DC /Baltimore  metro areas.  A second area may develop from Richmond east into the Northern neck and Middle peninsula areas and perhaps into Hampton roads.

I suspect a large portion of Virginia and Maryland will be placed under a TORNADO  Watch during the day tomorrow.  The potential for   rains up to 2 inches is pretty high especially over central and eastern portions of North Carolina …Virginia … and Maryland and the HAIL  potential also quite high.

This whole system should be off the coast and done with  during the predawn hours on Saturday  AND   this coming  weekend looks   spectacular… but the rains and storms  will  continue   over  NJ NYC  CT  and Much of New England  through Saturday.
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For next week JUNE  3-9….  temperatures will run below normal over the entire eastern half of  the CONUS.  This Low  which is going to hit us tomorrow   will  continue to travel up the New England  then stall off the southeast coast of  Canada.  It will be blocked from moving any further to the east the cause of a blocking feature in the Jet stream over northern and northeastern Canada.

This will force the jet stream to plunge from Minnesota down to Kentucky into  North Carolina  all next week.  A boundary or front  will set up next week from Georgia to Louisiana to Kansas and there will be numerous showers and  thunderstorms over the Deep South and the Delta because of this front.   But for Virginia …North Carolina …West Virginia Maryland … and Delaware …conditions will be pretty good  with  generally  fair skies and normal or  below normal temperatures for the entire week.

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Beyond  JUNE  2-9  the pattern and data clearly indicates that  Mid  and late JUNE   is going to turn hotter.  Once the blocking feature over  northern  Canada leaves ….  the   cooler air mass over the eastern U.S. will also leave.   Heat building in   over  the SW  conus and the Lower / central Plains will spread into the Midwest by  JUNE 10 and into  the  Middle Atlantic  by JUNE   12-13  and this   hot   pattern  could last to JUNE 25-30.   Rainfall  may also become quite as scarce as well .