99L and Round 2 of the 2012 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,HURRICANE SEASON 2012 | Tuesday 31 July 2012 4:11 am

30  JULY  2200 EDT

 

It has taken a while but we are now seeing strong signs of life developing in the MDR — MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION– all of the Atlantic tropical basin. Over the years there has been significant research that shows important connections between tropical activity and the MJO. (Madden Julian Oscillation) .     For those who do NOT know what the MJO is here is a GREAT video that briefly explains the MJO featuring Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzwfoZF3hlc…  you  may  need to copy and paste this link

The MJO has 8 specific phases and each phase has a corresponding connection to the overall weather patterns over Australia South American and North America and each of the 8 phases favors or suppresses different types of tropical activity in the MDR of the Atlantic Basin.

This first image represents the current MJO path/ status as of JULY 29.   Notice that we can see the track of this feature from back in the middle of JUNE when the MJO was in Phase 8. The circle in the middle of the diagram represents the “circle of death” or Neutral zone.    Thus when the MJO is in the ” circle of death ” the MJO has no particular impact on weather patterns because it is too weak.     As you can to see the MJO is it currently coming out of the circle of death or neutral zone and is now very weak just inside phase 6.

This table shows the significance of hurricane activity and the connection between the MJO . This table comes from some Colorado State university and Dr. Phil Klotzbach / Dr William Grey. As you can see there is a significant increase in activity in the MDR when the MJO is in Phase 1 and phase 2….   with  significant decreases or below normal activity when the MJO is in Phase 6 and 7.

But wait… didnt I just say that the current MJO is in Phase 6… which corresponds to below normal activity in the tropics? Yes I did. Because the key is the MJO forecast track and position as remove into August and September.

This image shows the forecast from several different models.. the GFS ensemble… the European and the British MJO models.  As you can see the vast majority of data shows that by Mid AUGUST the MJO will be in Phase 1 ….. which corresponds to above normal activity in the Atlantic Basin.

But besides the MJO phase… the 200 MB Vertical Velocities Plots also show a significant change coming. Remembering your basic physics strong vertical loss of these mean rising motion the atmosphere which supports thunderstorm and tropical development where as sinking air suppresses it.      In this image… as I clearly state the areas of  BROWN represent sinking air or negative vertical velocity which restricts or suppresses all thunderstorm development.        The more of the brown areas or squiggly lines that we see through more suppressive or hostile the pattern is for any sort of storm development.      Likewise the  GREEN  areas represent rising ocean which enhances thunderstorm development and Low pressure area in general.

 


As you can see from the image over the Atlantic Basin on July 21 not only was there an excessive amount of Sahara dust across the central and eastern Atlantic tropical regions.    But there was also a huge area of sinking air across the entire Atlantic Basin… stretching from the West Coast all the way to Spain and Africa with a concentration of fixing air over the Atlantic tropical basin itself. However by July 29 we see that the Brown areas have moved east into Africa and a large an increasingly strong area of rising motion — the GREEN squigglly lines – is moving towards Central America from the eastern Pacific.    Clearly over the next weaker so this much more favorable setup will move into the Gulf of Mexico the Caribbean and eventually the tropical Atlantic.

Thus by using these two unknown in overlooked aspects of hurricane forecasting we can see that as we move into AUGUST the MDR is clearly becoming much more favorable for tropical development .    Now if we only had some tropical waves ( TW) there were coming off southwest Africa far not to the south so that the severe dust off of Northwest Africa out was not interfering with the TWs.

Well low and behold we have exactly that.. 99L and another feature over the northeast portion of the Caribbean basin.     These   satellite picture    from   earlier today –July 30 –shows the features quite nicely.    If we take a look at the current areas of wind shear over the MDR… we can see a fairly strong wind shear over the tropical wave that is located over the Northeast Caribbean…. but over the southern portions of the tropical Atlantic the areas around 99L features remarkably low wind shear.

   

Taking a look at the trends in the Low level wind shear… We see that it’s increasing just to the north of Puerto Rico and the northeast portions the Caribbean but the low level wind shear appears to be neutral in and around the area of 99L.

If we look of the steering flow to figure out where these two systems might go over the next few days… The winds again at the lower level since we are dealing with weaker systems…. is essentially east to west with the 99L system which strongly implies that both the systems will continue to the west.   However the other tropical wave over the Northeast Caribbean is seeing ESE – WNW winds which may take the system into the Bahamas over the next few days.    

Lets take a look at some of the hurricane model guidance and see where this feature might be heading.    Typically when you have a system of this latitude the hurricane model guidance is usually very good because is mostly based off the GFS and when you are at the low latitudes like this the problems and cold bias that the GFS has does a really come into play.   However once you move north of 25° latitude the GFS cold bias and persistent over development of troughs on the East Coast usually plays havoc with th front again accurate forecast.   Which is why one should use the European model since its vasa superior with regard to the depiction of trough amplitudes .

Here are the 12z hurricane model plots for 99L.      As you can see most of the modesl seem to take it into the Northeast Caribbean and south of Puerto Rico at Day 6. The 0z JULY 31 hurricane models showed more of a band in some of the models… at day 5…. with one cluster or tracks passing north to Puerto Rico and another cluster of tracks over the Central Caribbean well to the south of Puerto Rico…..

In addition we also have the GFS ensemble spread…. from 18z and what is obvious to note is that most of the models take this system south the Puerto Rico or very close across the Hispano Island clipping Cuba and into the Bahamas by DAY 10 .

Again however I urge a lot of caution in using hurricane models past five days.  It becomes much more important to be able to read the atmospheric overall pattern as tropical systems approach across 60° W   longitude

The Canadian model for early this morning has been showing 99L developing into the fifth name tropical cyclone of the season by day 6 and a passing north of Puerto Rico and approaching the Bahamas by AUG 8-9.      However as you can clearly see the Canadian model shows a fairly strong short wave trough tracking through the Great Lakes AUG 5-8 .     This would imply that this system approaching the Bahamas would be forced to turn to the north then NNE. However this is somewhat speculative at this time since we did not know where this feature may be located next week with respect to the Bahamas nor do we know how deep for certain the trough is going to be cross into the Great Lakes and New England..

The European model at day 5 however also seized some sort of tropical feature in the North East Caribbean…which undoubtedly would be the TW that has been designated “99L.” Both the European model and the European ensemble show a gap in the central north Atlantic between the AZORES ridge and the western Atlantic or ” Bermuda High” ridge just off the East Coast. This gap if is big enough could force or turn 99L to the NW early…. IF 99L passes northeast the Puerto Rico.       However if the European models correct this feature will be moving into the Caribbean which will slide under the Gap.

At day 8…. the 12z operational European and the European Ensemble again clearly show some sort of significant tropical feature to the northeast and Puerto Rico. Both models do show a weakness in the rage over the Central Atlantic Ocean. It’s possible that this weakness may turn 99L… by that time likely be a tropical storm or hurricane… out to sea. But again since we don’t know what the position of this features going to be ith relationship to the Caribbean islands .. this is just one possibility.

By day 10 the European model ensemble shows a distinct trough over the northeast U.S. and a break in the pattern . Note the western Atlantic Rudge / Bermuda High over the southwest Atlantic Ocean.. and the heat dome that has been oveer the Plains. This allows for a weakness was gap to appear on the East Coast so any tropical systems coming in from the Northwest Caribbean or the southwest Atlantic would be pulled towards the Southeast U.S. Coast. That being said indeed event that there is no break in the Track over the southeast then the pattern were clearly favor Central and western Caribbean track.

 

 

SOMETHING STIRRING IN THE CAPE VERDE AREA

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,HURRICANE SEASON 2012 | Wednesday 25 July 2012 11:11 pm

1150pm  25  JULY    2012

 

On Tuesday evening a fairly strong tropical wave moved off the southwest coast of Africa and so far it  appears to be holding its own as crosses the far eastern portions of the tropical Atlantic.  This image shows you what the T.W.   looks like on Thursday evening and we can clearly see a pronounce cyclonic  curvature with this tropical wave and what appears to be a cluster of storms centered pretty close to the center of the system. 


Here we can see a more enlarged  high resolution visible image from the ECMWF  folks.

 

 

 

 

If we take a look at the SSTA we see a lot of really cold water still in place across the far eastern portions of the tropical Atlantic off the southwest coast of Africa.  These  cold waters  temperatures are going to have to warm up as   we move into the heart of the hurricane season or  the  cape verde     pipeline of tropical systems are not going to be very productive this year.

    the   HUGE  Saharan Dust     clouds  that have  been   dominating the  eastern and central Tropical Atlantic    is still there  BIT  t appears to  have shifted  more to the north  which COULD… COULD  give this    Tropical Wave  some breathing room

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg

 

 

 

DERECHO #2 ? LOOKS THAT WAY

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL | Monday 23 July 2012 1:04 pm

1130  AM  EDT  23  JULY …   CLICK  ON ON ALL IMAGES TO SEE FULL SIZE  !!***

 

Increasingly over the past several days I hae become worried that there is going to be another  DERECHO   event similar to what we experienced on June 29 across Ohio West Virginia Virginia and Maryland.  That being said there are some reasons to think that this particular event will not be as catastrophic lee severe as the one we saw on June 29.  But in order to discuss this with any sort of  reasonable   scientific insight  we have to go over the events of June 29 and the sequence that led up to that particular event.   Then we can compare to the current upper air pattern to see how things are similar in how they are different from June 29.

First if you wish to understand exactly what a DERECHO  is…  And why they are rare but  very different types of thunderstorm complexes  this is an excellent primer for the average person to grasp and understand.   The LINk is from the  SPC  NOWS  NOAA  site.  Contrary to some of the other bizarre idiotic blathering switch dominate the Internet these days DERECHO events are  NOT caused   by secret government interference with the weather the cause of  HARP.  ( yes I have seen numerous references to such mental  diarrhea on several web sites).

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm

As you can see DERECHO events have been around for a while.  They  are not common events but they are not something brand new which  has never existed before.  As you scroll down this event you’ll notice there  is a  section about DERECHOS  and  HEAT WAVES.: There is a pretty profound connection between prolonged he wave patterns and PREOGRESSIVE DERECHO  ( the one on JUNE 29  was   a PROGRESSIVE  TYPE  of Derecho)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/images/2012jun29/12jun29_composite_labeled.gif

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/images/2012jun29/12jun29_loop_rflecbase_pingpong.gif

 

THE UPPER  AIR PATTERN  JUNE 29  2012…

I have presented a series of maps here to show you the   Lower  jet stream    ( 500 MB)  PATTERN in the days leading up to the historic June 29 DERECHO.  Naturally I have highlighted some key an important features in order to aid   in the comprehension of this discussion…

This first image shows the overall pattern as of June 25.  We can see a huge dome  centered over the plains the Rockies and the western portions of the upper Midwest. The  DOME  extends up into South Central Canada.  Meanwhile there is a monster trough over the West Coast… which  matches or  TELECONENCTS    to the    huge  DOME  over the Plains / Rockies.  Over southeastern Canada a large trough is also developing which is forcing the Jetstream south into the great lakes and the Northeast.

On June 27 we can see that the huge trough on the West Coast is ejecting a strong piece of energy  ENE   into  southwest Canada. This feature in the weather  biz is called  SHORT WAVE  andf it  can be clearly  see on this map over  southearn Saskatchewan.  The movement of this feature is critically  important  is  seeing HOW the pattern set up to allow that  monster DERECHO to occur.  The movement of this feature is essentially flattening the heat dome as it rips the top of the Dome  away….  and  begisn to force the eat dome to expand  EAST  into the  Midwest and towards the  OHIO and TENN valleys.

By the evening of June 28 we can see the heat dome has now completely shifted its entire alignment.  It is been pushed to the south and we now see it in a large oval shape extending from New Mexico to Tennessee.  The forcing of the dome southward in turn allows the Jetstream to come southward across   ND    MN WO   MI  into New England.  At the same time the large upper low over se Caanda  is being forced  to the east.  This movement also allows the heat dome to expand rapidly eastward.  That strong shortwave moving through Central Canada  ejects a small piece of energy  over  ND  and   southern MN   called a “vort max “.

By the morning of June 29  the Heat dome   is Now over the TN valley  and the   confluence  zone in the jet stream is now over the  ND SD   MN   the southern Great Lakes into the northeast.   The Vort max begind to trrack NOT  due  east  but  ESE  ….  and initiates thunderstorm development on the morning of the 29th over northwest  ILL.   Typically a strong thunderstorm cluster like this will track due east but again because of the overall pattern  -  the  DOME  now over  TN and  GA  and thne   strong  Jet    over  the  Great Lakes and the Northeast — this growing thunderstorm cluster begins to race are rapidly    EAST then  ESE  then  SE over the next 12 hours.

This next image is the jet stream at 200 mb  and  again we can clearly see  strong   Jet  max  of  70-90 knots   running   across the Great Lakes and into the northeast.  The strong winds enabled    the  thunderstorms  over  northern ILL and cdentral IND to undergo rapid intensification and expansion  and  to begin to  turn  ESE.


SUMMARY 
the JUNE 29 DERECHO occurred in the mist of a historic heat  wave. The Heat dome was  pushed  or suppressed to the south  wall a strong piece of energy coming out of southwest Canada set up a very strong jet streak over the  Great Lakes and the northeast.  This    strong jet streak enable thunderstorms to become violent and severe when a piece of energy  — the Vort max –  that came out of  SD a and IA early on the morning of June 29

WHAT ABOUT  JULY 24-25?

In the current situation again we have the historic heat  wave underway across most of  the Plains  and    western   portions of the   Midwest.  Many  locations in these areas have seen temperatures at or above 100°for the past few days  and this heat  will expand into the Ohio Valley over the next two days.  This is somewhat similar to what we saw on  JUNE 28-29.

This next image shows the European model from 0z  Monday 7/23 run.  As you can clearly see once again we have a strong heat dome which is been suppressed on pushed to the south over the Tennessee Valley.  This time however we have a stronger  or LARGER   Trough in the Jet streakm over  eastern Canada which is forcing the Jetstream further to the south.  As a result any sort of thunderstorm clusters that develop over the Midwest will be forced to take a ESE or SE  track… again similar to what we saw JUNE 29.

here is the 6z   500 MB  Map from the GFS  JULY 23  run.  Again notice the dome centered over Arkansas….  which is well this place to the south and similar in some ways to what we saw on JUNE 29.

This next link is the 6Z  NAM  from the  PSU ewall  site  valid  at  48 hours and we can see the strong thunderstorm cluster racing out of Ohio through West Virginia and into central and Northern Virginia.  However I am not a really big fan of the  6Z  and 18z   Models.

This next image represents the closeup view of the 12z JULY  23  NAM/ WRF  Model again from the   PSU EWALL site.  We can see for maps …  Starting  at 27 hours…  And each map is the next 3 hours in time.  Thus we start at 11:00 AM Tuesday…  2:00 PM Tuesday….  5:00 PM Tuesday and finally 8:00 PM Tuesday.    The 12z NAM  JULY 23  run  is clearly detecting a rapidly developing and fast moving cluster of heavy thunderstorms over Ohio which race ESE     across   West Virginia and through central and Eastern Virginia in this pace of 9 hours.  The storms move from essentially Columbus Ohio…  to  Cape Hatteras and about 9   or  10 hours.

This is a  DERECHO event  folks. 

Now that being said it is extremely unlikely that this DERECHO event is going to be a strong or as massive as the one we saw on June 29.  That DERECHO  really was an exceptional   and  historic  event.  But that doesn’t mean the system can be ignored altogether.

Indeed   looking at some of the severe weather parameters  from the 12z NAM   we  see  SURFACE CAPE  of  3500+ over   eastern and se  va Tuesday afternoon and evening which is pretty impressive.

In addition we see the  LI   ( lifited index)   -8 to -10 over central and Eastern Virginia as well.   In the derecho of JUNE 29  the LI  was -13  over  OH   and  WVA.  So again the data showing that this coming up event will not be as severe as the incredible event of June 29 but it IS  going to have some KICK to it.

And lastly here is the   12z NAM   showing   vertical Velocities at   33 hrs…  Or Tuesday afternoon.  If you look over eastern and southeastern Virginia   you will  a bright red and purple area which represents very strong upper motion the atmosphere which feeds enhances thunderstorm development.

 

That is pretty much all I have with this update.  The next updates will probably be on the faithful page so I advise you to FOLLOW    wxrisk.com over at the FACEBOOK  page.  Questions and comments can be posted on the feedback section below or over on the faithful page

 

OLYMPICS WEATHER IN THE UK…

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL | Monday 23 July 2012 9:29 am

0744 AM edt   23  JULY  2012

As hot and dry  and  generally  awful as the summer has been for much of the  CONUS…  It has been extremely nasty wet and cool for much of Western Europe and specifically for the United Kingdom.  If you go back and take a look of the weather maps since MAY 2012…   it is been nothing but nonstop  rain and below normal temperatures as there has   been a series of major systems which  have been dropping  down from Iceland into Ireland and the UK every few days.    It has been …well bloody awful  and so far this Summer of 2012 is on pace to set a record for the top 10 coolest and what a summer’s ever   in the UK.
Ironically as we ove into the beginning of the Olympics  the weather pattern is changing and for the next several days it appears that the UK is going to see its warmest and driest interval of the Summer.  Last week I was thinking and forecasting that this would be an extremely fortuitous break  the UK  and the Olympics   in general because it appeared that the interval of really nice warm weather would last for several days.
OPPS.

**   CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO  SEE FULL SIZE **

The 0z   JULY 23  run of the European model  is showing a very ominous development  for the  UK and the  Olympics.   As you can see from the image here below I presented several map panels from the European model….  and I  have highlighted some of the important features.

At day 4 / 96 hrs we can see the next   s developing trough in the jet stream coming into the United Kingdom from Iceland.  There is a developing and  amplifying  RIDGE  over the North Atlantic   AND   increasing Ridge over  central Europe.     These   2 Ridges  are going to stall this trough over the United Kingdom and allow it to deepen  and    ” CLOSE  OFF “   so that    a large  ULL  (Upper Level Low)  forms in the trough  over the UK at  day  6/ 144 hrs.

By  192 hrs / DAY 8     the large deep UK  trough has   expanded into a massive size  covering all of Germany Austria  the Benelux countries   …  Bringing a lot a rain much below normal temperatures and probably some strong gusty winds as well.  On the other hand it appears as if the system is finally leaving   the UK  as  the massive trough moves into Germany and Central Europe.  However   by  DAY 10  the 0z  European model shows  the system retro grading  or rotating back upon itself  which results from the upper Low moving back into southeastern England.  If this were to happen and it is not all certain that  this  retrograde  movement will …but if it does…  This would result in a new round of pretty poor  Summer weather conditions for the United Kingdom

 

 

 

YES VIRGINIA … and Midwest & Deep South & Middle Atlantic… EXTREME HEAT IS COMING TO END then for some a LOT of rain

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL | Thursday 5 July 2012 9:36 pm

2000 EDT   5  JULY   STARDATE  201207.05

 

Back at the end of JUNE I made a post about the potential for the severe drought   in  the Midwest  and Deep South …which has  now spread to much of the country… coming to an end  sometime after the July 4 holiday.  Or at  least being significantly diminished.  The bases of that forecast was to a  large degree made on the  projected movement  of the current MJO.  On  JUNE 23  the MJO was on Phase 1 …  moving through Phase 2.  In   late JUNE and  early JULY ….Phase 2 favors a hot and dry pattern for the Midwest.   But  I  thought the MJO  would reach  Phase 3  after JULY 5  — in  the  month of JULY  Phase 3  favors above normal rainfall across most of the Midwest and the Northeast.
That weekend  of JUNE 22-23-24   with the MJO in phase 1   there were some areas of moderate rain in the Midwest .   However the  MJO  in Phase   2  stalled  at the end of the month and  into  early July which meant a prolonged interval of more hot and dry conditions over the Pains …the Midwest …and the East Coast.  As all of us have seen over the last several days that is indeed exactly what the weather pattern has reflected– worsening drought and more extreme heat with many many locations seeing day after day of 95-105°  max temperatures.  This image shows the current MJO phase  over the last 40 days out we can clearly see it move through Phase 1   and  2 .   Notice that all around JUNE 23  the  MJO    did a  ” stall”    or  little  loop which slow down its progression through phase 2 and into phase 3.   Thus my forecast for a wetter  and somewhat cooler  pattern    was going to be delayed.

However  the  new MJO forecast  Models do show that the current  MJO   is  going to make it into phase 3 pretty shortly…. and as I have stated that is significant  because    Phase  3  in the month of July  strongly correlates to a  wet pattern over the Midwest and the East Coast.    Here we have the  MJO   forecasts  from the   ECWMF    the Ukmet  and the   euro ensembles.    That being said many of these models then  EITHER        A)  weaken the MJO impulse and drop it into the “circle of death”      ( which represents the weakening of  the MJO impulse to the point where it no longer impacts the weather patters)      or    B)  RETOGRADE  the MJO  back into   Phase 2.

 

However  the MJO doesn’t seem to want to cooperate   with the forecast models.  Over the past several days the various models used to forecast the MJO  have been consistently showing  this  retrogression   yet the MJO  keeps moving forward and closer and closer to phase 3.
But decides  the MJO …there  is more and more evidence showing that the delayed El Nino event is finally beginning to Kick in.  This image shows the    current SOI values   (SOI   is a index  used   to  assess atmospheric  and ocean water  temperatures that bring about either a   El Nino  La Nina  or  Neutral conditions).  Whenever the 30 day average  of the SOI  drops below the value of  -8.0  El Nino conditions always develop.  The current  value is   -12.9 so as you can see we are past the threshold by a significant amount.

Interestingly .. if you look at the SOI  chart  you will see that during March and April  it  seemed  that  the SOI   was dropping steadily and that by the time we reached the early Summer  the   El Nino would be under way.  Indeed many seasonal forecast were premised on that idea.    However in  MAY 2012  the SOI  had a “spike”   which drove the  SPI  values  briefly back into positive territory.  This delay the onset of El Nino conditions and allow the  current pattern from the Winter and Spring to continue into the early Summer….  which aggravated the developing drought conditions  and that in turn enhance the   very warm pattern   of the  Winter  and  Spring into an   very hot one for the  first half of the summer of 2012.
In addition    ocean where temperatures  in the ENSO  regions  are rapidly warming  which is another strong sign that the  El Nino is beginning to  kick in.


If we focus a little closer to home…  We can see the current atmosphere a pattern over North America.  This image represents the European model from Thursday afternoon and we can clearly see the enormous heat dome covering the Plains  and the Midwest.

However important changes are going to take place starting this weekend which will drive the heat dome back to the West coast.  If you have any friends  or relatives   on  the West Coast they have had a pretty cool Spring and early Summer but that is  about to change.  The development of a large upper low over Eastern Canada will begin to cause the pattern to change this weekend.  This Upper Low will establish   a deep trough in the jet stream over the Great Lakes/ Midwest and  the  Northeast   which will force the   Heat Dome   back into the West coast and the Rockies .   This development of a major trough to form in the jet stream over the Great Lakes  and    eastern Canada  will drive  a pretty strong  surface  cold front   from North to South JULY  7-8-9   reaching into the Gulf coast states and the southeast by JULY  9.


As the cold front drive south it piles up the hot temperatures so that the day before the cold front arrives …many areas  over the  the lower Middle Atlantic states could be the hottest  temps we seen in many years.  It is possible that the all time high does temperature on record in Richmond could fall !  The NAM  Model on Thursday afternoon   is forecasting a Max temperature on Saturday of 107°temperatures and as you can see many areas   see temps of 105+ over  VA   and NC.


By July 9 the cold  front is going to stall along the Gulf coast and over the Southeast states and it will become a focusing mechanism for developing a lot of rain …   NEXT WEEK   July  8-15 …  for areas that really need it –   MS  AL  TN   GA  SC  NC  southern VA  and far southern WVA.  Some of the rain will probably get into northern  VA    as well as    central and eastern    MD  DE and southern NJ at times.. but  the vast majority of the widespread significant or heavy rains will fall over the  Deep south …into southern Virginia .

This first image shows the  12z GFS   from JULY 5…   in the 6-10 day with a map on the LEFT  being the operational Run — note the  6.46″  bulls eye over  northwest   SC and  southwest  NC in the    high terrain.   The map on the right   is the GFS ensemble mean  rainfall forecast.


This next image shows the rainfall forecast  from the 12z GFS Thursday afternoon run  for the 11-15 day   time frame . Once more the map on the left side is the operational GFS run and the map on the right side is the GFS  ensemble run.   As you can see both models/ map show additional significant rain over the Tennessee Valley and the Middle Atlantic states but also we see good rains getting into portions of the drought areas in the Midwest.


Finally here is the 18Z  GFS   ENSEMBLE model  runs… for the  6-10 day on the left and the 11-15 day on the  right.  The 18z GFS is even wetter across the deep south into North Carolina central and Eastern Virginia Eastern Maryland into Southern New Jersey with a large area of 2-4″  rains.    Again in the 11-15  day the front is still  bringing  good rains to the  Middle Atlan tic and the   Midwest areas.

  SUMMARY  even though the next two days  are going   to be very tough for everybody and the Midwest …the Deep South and the East Coast  …the  Heat Wave  IS going to come to an end.  The pattern shift starts this weekend.  Next week  over all of the Middle Atlantic — but a specially over the lower Middle Atlantic  ( VA MD DE)   and all Southeast  states  (NC    SC  GA) and Gulf coast  states ( LA  MS  AL    southern TN)   will feature  above normal rainfall and cooler temperatures because of the overcast skies and the numerous large areas of showers and thunderstorms .  Many areas will see as much as 5 inches a rain over a five day but some of the locations over higher terrain— such as    Northern GA   far eastern TN  western  NC    southwest  VA   could see  up to 8 inches.  The Midwest will see temps   in the 80s  as will the Northern Middle Atlantic and New England states.