STOP !!!! SANDY TIME.. WED 10/24 UPDATE

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,HURRICANE SEASON 2012 | Thursday 25 October 2012 2:43 am

2200  EDT  OCT   24 ,2012…  STRADATE    201210.24

The latest recon as of 10:00 PM this evening showed that hurricanes sandy was becoming a category 3  hurricane with the Los pressure now reaching 955MB.  From the satellite pictures you can see that she is bombing out very nicely and continuing to intensify into a massive hurricane as the European and other models have been depicting for the past several model runs.  This is an impressive looking hurricane for late October and it’s very large.

 
The announcement that NWS offices up and down the East Coast will launch additional weather sounding balloons to obtain more information about the atmosphere in the hope that the weather models can use this new information to get a better handle on what is happening with the atmosphere is an indication of how important in serious the potential is with this hurricane/ monster coastal storm.
Most of the time when something like this is done it  is usually because there is a lot of model uncertainty.  And that is usually  caused by the GFS model  screwing up again.  Over the years I seen this many times where the GFS model has a solution which no other model seems to be showing so in order to get a better handle on the situation  they launched these intermediate weather balloons for additional atmospheric soundings and this information gets put into the  the various  weather computer models.

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The idea here is to hope that the crappie GFS model  finally gets a clue about the basic laws of the universe and physics with all this new additional information in the model.  The problem is that you can only shine up   a pile of SHIT  so much.   So all the high expectations were hope that this new data is somehow going to affect the GFS model over the next few runs usually ends up being a total bust and let down.

Let us take a look about why the GFS model is screwing this up so badly.  And this is really important because so many TV meteorologists both within the weather channel and on your local media and even on many private web pages rely extremely heavily on the GFS weather model.

And because the GFS model even this afternoon continues to show a hurricane staying well off the coast until it gets up into southeastern New England…  Many of the TV & Media outlets up and down the East Coast are downplaying the threat or talking about the very complicated situation or expressing some other boilerplate expression of uncertainty.

For those  that are not weather geeks    and  don’t know…   it has been documented many times that the  GFS model has a cold bias.  What that means is that if the temperature is going to reach 80° for example…  The GFS model will show the temperature reaching 75.   But in the atmosphere at the high levels it has other more serious implications.  The cold bias of the GFS in the jet stream levels means that it Mishandles things like  TROUGHS   and   RIDGES very badly.  In other words if the numerical value of a particular weather feature the jet stream is to say   100…  The GFS will show this feature to be   90.  And by weakening the feature and underplaying it it ends up distorting the entire pattern as you go further out in time .
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Let’s take a look.
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This next image shows you the European model from this afternoon valid for 96 hours or October 28.  We can see a mighty hurricane SANDY  just  off SC   GA   coast moving  due North.  But we can also see a massive system sitting out there in the Central North Atlantic Ocean.

It is a basic law of physics and weather that you CANNOT  have two large enormous  Low pressure areas located in close proximity to each other.  For some reason that we cannot quite figure out the GFS seems to have problems understanding that basic laws of the weather physics.
This next image is the 72 hr Wednesday afternoon European model and it so shows the Jetstream pattern.  I have highlighted the key features but what is important   to  understand is that there  is a bulge or mountain of the air which exists between the huge ocean Low and the central north Atlantic and SANDY off the Georgia Coast.


This  feature…called a  RIDGE …has a certain intensity or to value which we can measure…  That number IS  576DM.
However when we compare this to the upper air map from the GFS model we see something different.
In this next image I present the GFS jet stream map valid for the exact same time — 72 hours some now or October 27.  I again I have  highlighted the key features on we can clearly see that same  RIDGE   existing between sandy and the huge ocean low in the North Central Atlantic Ocean.  But the numerical value of this feature is significantly lower or weaker on the GFS model  ( that cold bias I referred to above)… 570DM.

And because  this   RIDGE  is  weaker the GFS model … the  GFS Model allows SANDY to move further out into the Atlantic Ocean and closer to the ocean Low in the north central Atlantic.  This is a meteorological impossibility and it is why the model needs to be rejected as a viable solution with this particular situation.

 

By 120 hours or five days some now (October 29) the European model has captured hurricane SANDY  which is now a super large and very powerful coastal storm and pulled it towards the Virginia Maryland New Jersey Coast.


The GFS model is sitting there without a clue has SANDY  hundreds of miles offshore not affecting anybody except for some fish.  Its solution is absurd and ludicrous and should be totally disregarded.

Even the   NOGAPS  sees the pattern correctly

That being said we can point out that the GFS  Hurricane ensembles appear to be getting a clue  as they finally show a more dramatic shift to the west with each new passing model run.
This image shows the GFS hurricane  ensembles  plots or tracks  from early Wednesday morning.  Notice how all of them or turning sandy towards the coast with a sharp turn to the northwest.  Of course the problem here is that the GFS   Hurricane ensemble  STILL   swing  SANDY way too far to the   out to the east before the hurricane / huge coastal storm begins to get captured.

However 12 hours later  we see that the GFS hurricane  ensemble shows a much closer track to the coast and in much sharper turn  to the WEST with numerous LANDFALLS between New York City and wallops island Virginia …  Including the lower Maryland Eastern shore and New Jersey .
Note that these tracks are significantly further south or down the coast then what the previous image showed .   This is more proof that the European and navy or Nogaps model will likely be correct.

Finally one of the key points in figuring out where sandy is going to turn to the west and strike the coast …  Will be her position relative to Florida and the Bahamas on Friday .  The closer to Florida that  SANDY is located then be close issue will be to the coast and the more likely we are to see a turn into  North Carolina Virginia or Maryland .

On the other hand the further off the Florida  coast  SANDY is…  The more likely she used to swing    “WIDE”  are out into the Atlantic off the southeast coast then turn north     THEN  nw    back  into  the East Coast probably making landfall somewhere up by New Jersey New York City Long Island were Connecticut.

 

3 Comments »

  1. Comment by Dave Mohr — October 26, 2012 @ 1:11 am

    Impressive, thank you for explaining things. I look foward to your comments.

  2. Comment by spike — October 29, 2012 @ 10:02 am

    nothing to add since THURSDAY?????????

  3. Comment by ClayinBonAir — October 30, 2012 @ 12:56 pm

    DT…….

    You and the mighty ECMWF FOOKIN nailed this one!

    And I noticed thousands of new fans on your FB Site…. jumped from 20,000 to 28,000+ in the last 7 days……

    Your street cred in the Weather Biz continues to explode…….

    ClayinBonAir….

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