Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL | Thursday 4 October 2012 7:07 pm

 1500 EDT    4 OCTOBER    2012

  Before you read the  forecast   BELOW  Please    click on     THIS   LINK .   There are some  points  I need to make   before you read the forecast below   


   If   you are running a  weather   sensitive Business…   such as a   Propane or Energy…  Mountains resorts… Marinas …. landscaping….  or  construction  and    you need    DETAILED    two and three   week forecasts  you  really should   try  VA   BUSINESS  Weather  Newsletter    ( The   VA Business  Weather Newsletter   is a paid  subscription    service.   If you are interested    send me an   Email at  [email protected]  or   at   facebook.com/ wxrisk  )




In case  you  did not know there   has been a significant snowstorm over the far northeast portions of North Dakota ….Northwest Minnesota into southern Manitoba Canada over the  last 18 hours.  Having snow this early in that part of the country in early October is not unheard of but it’s not   common  either.  It is indicative of the cold air coming in behind this front which will finally  end the heat   that has been common   up and down the East Coast.     Friday and Saturday morning many locations in the Dakotas Nebraska Minnesota and Northwest Iowa will drop down between 19 and 25°!

That being said the warm air really does  not  wanto to give up the ghost.  Friday  is not  going  be a problem for anybody  over the lower Middle Atlantic states.  It  WILL  be warm   over most locations and the humidity will make a comeback as winds term or out of the South once again.  Many locations in central and Eastern Virginia and Maryland will reach the middle  80s  which is pretty darn warm for early October.
On Saturday the first surge in the cold front will approach the Appalachian Mts.   There will  be SOME  decent rains / showers over West Virginia into Western Maryland and Western Pennsylvania   Saturday morning through midday.  But  the cold front is going to stall as it crosses the Appalachians and tries to move into the heat and against the  RIdge in the jet stream over the southeastern U.S.  This means that the showers …once they cross the Appalachian Mts Saturday afternoon… will  weaken    as they move into southwestern and Central Virginia and Maryland will fall apart.  These areas may see a few scattered showers on Saturday afternoon for the most part  but it should not be a big deal and some areas may see no rain at all.  And to the south all of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia should stay generally sunny and quite warm.

Sunday is when the cold front comes in as a strong wave of low pressure develops on the front over the western Carolinas.  The Low will track northeast over Western Virginia   imnto central   Maryland  then into eastern or southeastern Pennsylvania.  This track will provide for significant showers or steady rain and possibly even some thunder over much of eastern WVA…  all of Virginia except for the southwest portions…  and much of central and Eastern Maryland and   all of DE.   That being said   Sunday does not look like an all day rain event.:
Sunday morning will see the rains over southeastern Ohio …western West Virginia and Eastern Kentucky  END by midday.   The rains  will spread  eastward into   EASTERN   WVA the western half of VA into Central Maryland…  ending by  sunset.    And over southeastern and East Central Virginia  — including the Hampton roads and Richmond metro areas as well as over DC Baltimore and Eastern Maryland and all of Delaware…  Sunday morning looks pretty dry with the showers and thunderstorms coming in during the afternoon and early evening hours.



Behind the front temperatures will turn dramatically cooler.  OCT 8-12  will feature several mornings with temperatures in the  Upper 30s and Low 40s over  the   mountains of West Virginia and Western Maryland… and 40s over most of Northern North Carolina all of Virginia except for the coastal and a areas and Maryland.  Max temperatures   will be mostly in the  60s . SPRET
WEEKEND  #2     OCT   12-13-14 

For next weekend the pattern repeats itself.  There will be a another fairly strong cold front that moves through the East Coast Friday October 12…  which will be followed  by another strong early season COLD  High pressure area comes in across the Midwest into the heart of the middle Atlantic  states.   The morning of October 13 across WVA      VA  MD  DE   and PA will easily be the coldest air of the season and some frost as possible in these areas a specially over Maryland and Pennsylvania but perhaps even over the Shenandoah Valley.



  1. Comment by Dawn — January 4, 2011 @ 1:06 pm

    I appreciate the table format. It’s easy to read and easy to quickly check for updates. Thanks for always continuing to improve upon your services. Not many businesses do.

  2. Comment by Gretel — January 4, 2011 @ 1:48 pm

    this is very easy to read….thanks a million

  3. Comment by John from Charlottesville — January 4, 2011 @ 4:34 pm

    Dave, I like the new product. Its informative, easy to read and to the point.


  4. Comment by Debbie — January 4, 2011 @ 6:52 pm

    Dave, I love the maps but not being a weather person they confuse me. I love the new format, very easy to understand. Thank you for all you do!

  5. Comment by Pam — January 4, 2011 @ 9:39 pm

    You are the only meteorologist my husband and I pay any attention to. I have told all my snow-loving friends, as well as, all my other friends about your website. Keep up the good work! Pam in Central VA

  6. Comment by Duane — January 4, 2011 @ 11:30 pm

    I like the new format. It is very easy to understand.

  7. Comment by Bonnie — January 5, 2011 @ 1:45 am

    Dave, Thanks for your information! We’re hoping that your COULD BE is correct, because we love snow. I’m learning new weather terms!

  8. Comment by Karen — January 5, 2011 @ 1:33 pm

    In my 54 years of life I have never been as fascinated by weather forecasting as I have been since hearing you on WRVA 1140 am speaking with Jimmy Barrett. I check your website daily not only for local Richmond forecasts but love to read how the models are “playing out” and what others can expect in the way of weather. I love the new dialogue and maps. Keep up the good work!

  9. Comment by Kathleen — January 5, 2011 @ 3:45 pm

    This is a great format. Not so overwhelming! Thanks for all you do and thanks for remembering that the Northern Neck gets weather! Sometimes, it is very hard to find a forecast that applies to the area. It isn’t really Richmond, and it isn’t DC…

  10. Comment by JD — January 5, 2011 @ 4:28 pm

    Please post again about the Jan 11-12 threat for Richmond-the local guys and others are taking it up I 81 and it doesn’t seem like it will amount to much for us…what are your thoughts?

  11. Comment by HH — January 7, 2011 @ 1:52 am

    #9 comment- you are right. I live in Tappahannock and often it is not in news cast or weather reports. We are ob-so-lete.

  12. Comment by Chip Peterson — January 7, 2011 @ 1:38 pm

    Your forecast for the Eastern Shore concerning the Dec. 26 snowfall was right on line. I will be checking with you whenever the threat of inclement weather may occur on the “part of Virginia which everyone forgets”.

  13. Comment by Tripp — January 8, 2011 @ 2:45 am

    Hey DT,
    You made me a believer last year when you called “the big snow” ten days before the local stations. I like the table format, but am missing the maps with the projected snowfall areas outlined and your notes. Will you still be creating those?
    Thanks for all you do to educate the weather fans out here;I recommend your site to all my friends here on the Middle Peninsula!

  14. Comment by Cindy — January 8, 2011 @ 2:38 pm

    Thank you for this easy to read/understand information, it is helpful for general information and planning.

  15. Comment by Jabet — January 15, 2011 @ 7:25 pm

    This is much easier to read, love this new format.

  16. Comment by ClayinBonAir — January 15, 2011 @ 8:55 pm

    Just when you thought you were out……
    They brought you back in

    I like the new regional two week forcasts…..But I really like the “Map Blitz” and the in depth discussions in da fookin chat room…..

    See you there,


  17. Comment by Mary — January 15, 2011 @ 9:00 pm

    Thank you for this table format…. easy for my sleep deprived parent brain to comprehend and scan quickly….

  18. Comment by Karen B. — January 15, 2011 @ 9:12 pm

    This is easier to read. Thank you. I live in Powhatan and noticed on the map that it is considered South Central. However, according to the key on the map, South Central is listed in both “Eastern VA” & “Central VA”. So which one should I follow when looking at the forecast? Thanks.

  19. Comment by sandy=mineral — January 15, 2011 @ 11:34 pm

    DT- I love this new format, it is so easy to follow. Thank you for all your continued efforts to keep us up to date.

  20. Comment by Jackie Howell — January 16, 2011 @ 1:18 am

    I am a beliver after Dec. 26 th and had just started following you. On the money you were!!! I love the easy read information and graphs and how you will come back and hone whats going on.

  21. Comment by Toni -- Southern Piedmont — January 16, 2011 @ 9:40 am

    Your new, simpler format is a great addition to your site. I like being able to get the two-week forecast in simple terms, then have the choice to explore in more detail through your site. Thank you!

  22. Comment by Pat Hughes — January 16, 2011 @ 9:40 pm

    Dave… Love the new format for those of us who dont understand the complexities and nuances of meteorology. Thank you for putting yourself out there, and keeping us in the know, you have a rare talent; thanks again!

  23. Comment by Lexie-Midlothian — January 18, 2011 @ 5:08 am

    I love the new format. Thanks for all that you do to keep us informed. Keep up the good work…don’t listen to the nay sayers! You provide a great service to all that follow you.

  24. Comment by Ed — January 18, 2011 @ 5:31 am

    I like the new table format Dave! Very easy to read and understand.

  25. Comment by R.C. McClellan — January 18, 2011 @ 10:11 am

    Love the info you provide, it’s a bit technical and almost over my head, but I seem to understand it contextually. Just make the weather not screw up my flight to Miami 28 Jan–can’t miss the cruise and that weather call will be Thursday morning if I have to drive down :)

  26. Comment by Dana — January 18, 2011 @ 12:55 pm

    Love it thanks! The Facebook site has been overrun by “jerks’” constantly telliing people “I can’t believe you people ask these questions” etc. that we can’t even find what’s important and that’s your info! Other guys trying to be you and take over YOUR site has gotten rediculous.

  27. Comment by Kathy — January 18, 2011 @ 12:58 pm

    Thanks for the watered-down version for those of use who just aren’t educated in the technical aspects of weather forecasting! I love that this is easy to read, quick, and to the point. Thanks, Dave!

  28. Comment by Jeff — January 19, 2011 @ 6:33 pm

    Dave, liek the new format, easy to digest and navigate but please don’t exit too far out of the commentary as that what makes this really enjoyable and educational for me.

  29. Comment by Paula — January 21, 2011 @ 9:25 pm

    Love the new format. I look forward to seeing more about the storm for Jan. 26-28. NWS is already talking significant accumulation and extending period of snow.

  30. Comment by Angela Treglown — January 29, 2011 @ 3:42 am

    Thanks DT. Love your format. Informative. Going to need it for the up coming garden, harvest, canning/freezing season.

  31. Comment by Peggy Bouchard — January 29, 2011 @ 12:53 pm

    Thanks DT – you are very generous in sharing what you know with us – much appreciated!

  32. Comment by Kevin Cummings — February 2, 2011 @ 4:07 pm


    I like your new concise format, however I am a fan of your detailed analysis and charts, as this allows me to learn to understand how you were making the predictions. I also enjoy your commentaries. I hope that you might be able to provide a link to the detailed analysis, for those like me that want to view/understand the techniques that you use that underly the forecasts.

    Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us!

  33. Comment by Peggy Bouchard — February 5, 2011 @ 2:42 am

    Thank you again for posting – I love the chart and the detailed forecasts – you are my weather hero!

  34. Comment by Beth Hopkins — February 5, 2011 @ 2:51 pm

    I have been a follower of you for many years. The new format is user friendly, but I enjoy your analysis and insight of the models. You are a very gifted scientist who calls it as they see it. Keep up the great work!

  35. Comment by David B. — February 5, 2011 @ 4:25 pm

    Dave, thank you for this, I’m finding that I don’t even visit the other weather sites any more.

  36. Comment by Pat Harvey — February 16, 2011 @ 1:52 am

    Sounds like we may have another drought year heading our way. Any sense how that may be shaping up? I find I trust your weather analysis and that of midatlanticweather.com to be the most insightful and correct meteorlogical reports out there. Thanks much!!!!!

  37. Comment by Heidi Bennett — November 16, 2011 @ 1:18 am

    Love the new layout it is super easy to read. Keep up the good work.

  38. Comment by Peggy Bouchard — November 16, 2011 @ 1:35 am

    Hey DT – Thx – this is a great format!

  39. Comment by Jo Ann Gideons — November 30, 2011 @ 11:50 am

    The new format is great! I have an Inn in Clifton Forge where I spend 80% of my time but I have a home and family in Powhatan. So, I spend a couple of days each month traveling back and forth and your forecast have really helped me to know when weather might change my driving plans. Thanks and keep up the good work!

  40. Comment by Don Cable — January 30, 2012 @ 4:16 am

    Where are these “tables” others are finding so easy to read? I must be missing something.

  41. Comment by Pem Hutchinson — January 30, 2012 @ 1:37 pm

    am I nuts or in looking at the 384 hr hemi loop does the polar vortex basically disappear by the end of the period? That would mean the entire northern hemisphere would have almost no cold. I know the models suck afer h180 or so (GFS especially), but perhaps this is proof that some sort of change may be in the offing…nutty winter COUNTRY WIDE!

  42. Comment by Jason Mackanick — April 26, 2012 @ 6:20 pm

    Any chance on including PA on the forecast? I like what you have for VA.

  43. Comment by Cornelia Miller Rutherford — May 4, 2012 @ 11:32 am

    One of my cast members posted this site and it’s wonderful. Our event (The Virginia Renaissance Faire) is a rain or shine event but we REALLY do prefer ‘shine’. I appreciate the explanatory nature that lets us make an educated guess rather than just taking a number off the screen and adding prayer.

  44. Comment by Snowfighter13 — August 29, 2012 @ 12:13 pm

    Great text. We use it regularly to ramp up crews. Keep up the good work!!

  45. Comment by Chris Harden — August 30, 2012 @ 5:48 pm


    I’ve been following you for years. Thank you for your dedication, hard work and humor. Real quick, on your maps of VA, you show Roanoke, but the dot location is actually Wytheville.


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