1500 EDT 4 OCTOBER 2012
Before you read the forecast BELOW Please click on THIS LINK . There are some points I need to make before you read the forecast below
If you are running a weather sensitive Business… such as a Propane or Energy… Mountains resorts… Marinas …. landscaping…. or construction and you need DETAILED two and three week forecasts you really should try VA BUSINESS Weather Newsletter ( The VA Business Weather Newsletter is a paid subscription service. If you are interested send me an Email at [email protected] or at facebook.com/ wxrisk )
CLICK ON THE MAPS FOR FULL SIZE
THIS LONG WEEKEND OCTOBER 5-6-7
In case you did not know there has been a significant snowstorm over the far northeast portions of North Dakota ….Northwest Minnesota into southern Manitoba Canada over the last 18 hours. Having snow this early in that part of the country in early October is not unheard of but it’s not common either. It is indicative of the cold air coming in behind this front which will finally end the heat that has been common up and down the East Coast. Friday and Saturday morning many locations in the Dakotas Nebraska Minnesota and Northwest Iowa will drop down between 19 and 25°!
That being said the warm air really does not wanto to give up the ghost. Friday is not going be a problem for anybody over the lower Middle Atlantic states. It WILL be warm over most locations and the humidity will make a comeback as winds term or out of the South once again. Many locations in central and Eastern Virginia and Maryland will reach the middle 80s which is pretty darn warm for early October.
On Saturday the first surge in the cold front will approach the Appalachian Mts. There will be SOME decent rains / showers over West Virginia into Western Maryland and Western Pennsylvania Saturday morning through midday. But the cold front is going to stall as it crosses the Appalachians and tries to move into the heat and against the RIdge in the jet stream over the southeastern U.S. This means that the showers …once they cross the Appalachian Mts Saturday afternoon… will weaken as they move into southwestern and Central Virginia and Maryland will fall apart. These areas may see a few scattered showers on Saturday afternoon for the most part but it should not be a big deal and some areas may see no rain at all. And to the south all of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia should stay generally sunny and quite warm.
Sunday is when the cold front comes in as a strong wave of low pressure develops on the front over the western Carolinas. The Low will track northeast over Western Virginia imnto central Maryland then into eastern or southeastern Pennsylvania. This track will provide for significant showers or steady rain and possibly even some thunder over much of eastern WVA… all of Virginia except for the southwest portions… and much of central and Eastern Maryland and all of DE. That being said Sunday does not look like an all day rain event.:
Sunday morning will see the rains over southeastern Ohio …western West Virginia and Eastern Kentucky END by midday. The rains will spread eastward into EASTERN WVA the western half of VA into Central Maryland… ending by sunset. And over southeastern and East Central Virginia — including the Hampton roads and Richmond metro areas as well as over DC Baltimore and Eastern Maryland and all of Delaware… Sunday morning looks pretty dry with the showers and thunderstorms coming in during the afternoon and early evening hours.
For next weekend the pattern repeats itself. There will be a another fairly strong cold front that moves through the East Coast Friday October 12… which will be followed by another strong early season COLD High pressure area comes in across the Midwest into the heart of the middle Atlantic states. The morning of October 13 across WVA VA MD DE and PA will easily be the coldest air of the season and some frost as possible in these areas a specially over Maryland and Pennsylvania but perhaps even over the Shenandoah Valley.