MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR PLAINS/ UPPER MISS VALLEY DEC 9-10– AND THE PATTERN CHANGE?

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,WINTER 2012 -13 | Monday 3 December 2012 3:59 pm

1815  EST   3 DEC 2012… STARDATE   201212.03

One other problems in the PRIVATE weather business s that causes me another private sector meteorologists a great deal of concern is that even though I can reach a decent number of people with my forecasts… there are others who have a much larger and bigger reach. And as a result when they go off on a tangent or all off the deep end and start forecasting extreme weather events and patterns … day after day week after week tie me after time … In ends up causing a lot of problems for those of us who are striving to get the forecast write as opposed to engaging in Bullshit.
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I am not sure exactly why this is the case. If you are watching Jim Kramer on CNBC and then you listen to some other Wall Street analysis or stock guy you don’t go around accusing every stock or bond trader of either being Jim Kramer or just like Jim Kramer or having the same analysis is Jim Kramer. This also holds true for say car mechanics or accountants or doctors.
But for reasons that I have yet to be able to figure out that doesn’t seem to be the case for meteorologists.    It’s really quite a puzzle.    And the problem is further compound in that if you point out or try and criticize some really bad forecasting out there …. SOME will end up thinking … that you are envious .
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In fact the opposite is the case.    The perpetual harping about massive severe arctic outbreaks coming up any day or next week or two weeks and now… Actually ends of doing the far harm to the science of meteorology and weather forecasting that it does good.   So it is not about ENVY at all.. it is about protecting the science.
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A case in point has to do with some information I was sent over from one the private  weather companies in the Northeast.  Yeah they have some really good weather graphics and I have used them but some of the analysis that I am reading is just… well not only bizarre it is goofy. One of these forecasters made a comment on their midday discussion that …“the same MJO warm pattern in the spring/ summer  over North America produces a cold pattern during the winter months” . Not only is that 100% crap but it is almost irrational .  And what is what this stupid phrase the     ” winter will remember what happens in December ?”
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Are their actual meteorologists out there that think the phrase “old man winter” ACTUALLY refers to a human being who lives in the north pole and controls winter patterns? Lets give the meteorologist who made that idiotic comment the benefit of the doubt. But there is absolutely no evidence of any kind the atmosphere     “remembers December weather pattern for the entire winter”.    It’s gobbledygook / BULLSHIT of the highest order .

It is no wonder that the comments from folks in the feedback is featuring more increasingly disgruntled winter weather lovers wondering where all the cold IS and WHY it keeps getting pushed back. It is NOT getting “pushed back”… it is that this same forecaster has IGNORED the near record warmth.
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And even more telling is that even though the weather models are showing a lot of warm conditions now thru DEC 12 over the Ohio valley …Deep Soouth.. and East Coast… the warmth is getting almost no coverage at all from this particular meteorologist.
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UPDATE ON THE THE MIDDAY MODELS… 12/3

Let me emphasize again that I don’t see any changes in the midday models which alter my forecast in any substantial way how I see the pattern evolving over the next two weeks. I have consistently maintained that any significant winter weather pattern that might develop is not going to happen on the East Coast until the middle the month… at the earliest. And I have NOT at any point over the last seven days forecasted anything like the     “MOTHERLODE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS”.   Not one time.
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I have said many times and I said it again last night in the video..  that the key to getting serious cold air into the northeast/ East Coast is going to be the development of a poll vortex in North America AND …. AND the PV has to move down to Hudson’s bay Canada . This movement will finally smacked down or crushed the southeast Ridge. Until that happens the most we are looking at after the DEC 12 over the East Coast will be seasonal cold.
The heart of this first shot of cold air next week will be over the Rockies and the central and upper plains and the western Great Lakes. I said that back over the weekend and I am saying it again now — nothing has changed.  The midday models have not change the development of a significant LOW pressure forming on the arctic cold front DEC 9-10 … while the first true large arctic high in the season drops south towards the U.S. Canada border.     This first image is the European ENSEMBLE map for DEC 9... And we can see the cold air pouring southward over the Upper Plains and western Great Lakes and the LOW forming on the front.


This next image shows the DEC 10 map.... The map on the left hand side is the 12z European ensemble mean for DEC 10 … The map on the right hand side is the regular or operational European. As you can see these models are in very close agreement that this LOW pressure area will intensify as the tracks through the central Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes.   This map shows blizzard conditions may be POSSIBLE over MN WI western IA the eastern Dakotas and Eastern Nebraska. Ahead of the front very warm air surges into the Ohio Valley and the entire East Coast from Georgia to Maine.

 


As the strong cold front rives towards East Coast DEC 11-12.. Severe weather is possible up and down the East Coast.

With regard to whether not the pattern is action going to change or not… The answer is obvious and quite certain.   Of course if you are going to be a weenie then the only definition of change is whether not it affects your house or your back porch where your underwear   (by definition a weather weenie is only concerned about weather around his or her location).

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This image is a comparison between the hemispheric shot of the European model from right now — LEFT SIDE — and the Day 10 240 European model ensemble. If you don’t think that the significant change over the next 10 days in the overall pattern… Maybe should find another hobby


Here we have the 12z GFS   Ensemble mean pattern at day 10 / 240 hours   and we can see some changes developing in the model. For one thing the GFS ensemble does NOT have a-NAO at all. Instead we see a ridge over Great Britain and Scandinavia which supports a ridge over the southeastern U.S. (SEE RED CIRCLE ). Second the model has a stronger ridge over the southeastern U.S. to reflect this change with the NAO NOT developing as fast as the GFS was showing a few days ago.


Here we can look at this in a little closer view — a North America projection 240  hr 12z  EURO ENSEMBLE.     And again we see that there’ is NOT a true +PNA pattern… But instead we see a developing eastern Pacific ridge over 140-150 west longitude. This means or teleconnects that the mean trough position is going to be centered over the Rockies and the Plains states for MID DECEMBER and not over the East Coast. So if we combine that with the LACK of a clear -NAO … there is no mechanism or reason for the PV over North Central Canada to come southward. As a result the PV stays to the north and we only see a slow pattern change over the East Coast with temperatures moving back to seasonal levels.

Finally by December 16 the GFS ensemble ... Along with the European ensemble which I’ve seen but I cannot post… A pretty strong looking -NAO … And a slow southward expansion of the PV. The main push of cold air drops into the Rockies and the plain states but it is sufficient to knock were flattened the southeast ridge allowing for more cold air to slowly move into the East Coast in the 11 to 15 day.

 

Assuming that the European and the GFS esembles are reasonably close in their depiction of the overall pattern in the 11-16 day ( DEC 14-19) it is possible that there may be a system developing over the southwestern states that it could move through the Deep south and pose a threat to portions of the Midwest and the Middle Atlantic states at some point.

 

2 Comments »

  1. Comment by Brandon — December 4, 2012 @ 1:38 am

    So the main point I get is that it will probably get better for the East around or after the 15th but not to jump the gun and that, initially, the cold in the East will be seasonal, not extreme. Is that correct?

    I personally live in Northeast Ohio. Do you think I should be in at least an average pattern for cold by the mid-point of the month, i.e. the 11 to 16 day timeframe?

    Thanks.

  2. Comment by cs1992 — December 4, 2012 @ 6:37 pm

    Great question by Brandon. I was going to say that unfortunately the 8-10 day forecasts have often looked good for cold weather only to change in successive runs. However, The 8-10 500mb map for this week certainly verified from 10 days ago. So hopefully you are on to something.

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