MORNING ENERGY 6-10 and 11-15 DAY CONUS
ISSUED 11/4/09 730AM EDT
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11-15 DAY CONUS
The morning models are showing very important feature which is going to dominate the weather maps here for the next 10 days or so and probably even beyond. This first image shows you the European model and what I want to take a look at it is the powerful system which moves into the Gulf of Alaska on Friday. The European model has a system at 951mb which is actually as strong as a borderline category 3/4 hurricane!
This feature is very important because of what it MEANS. Keep in mind that the typical way we get cold air into the central and eastern US for sustained period of time is when there is a BIG ridge over Western US and western Canada and a trough over the eastern US. This pattern is referred to in the weather business as a +PNA. However with this huge storm moving into Alaska and northwestern Canada the chance of ANY sort of +PNA becomes a remote. This huge system from the northern Pacific is also symbolic of the much bigger problem.
The only reason you get a huge storm like this in the northern Pacific in November is when you happen to have a very strong Pacific jet stream and a very strong Pacific jet stream is not favorable for the development of the aforementioned +PNA pattern. When the jet stream is going very strong like it is in the North Pacific— up to 200 knots– it becomes much harder for it to begin to bend and shift position and without that bending or shifting you can’t get any sort rage on the West Coast of North America and therefore you have no cold pattern for the central and eastern US.
We can also see this problem continuing at Day 10 . This image give us a nice good atmospheric view of the weather patterns. Note this images show a lot
of black lines which are running west east or zonal across the US and Canada. That’s not what you want to see if you’re looking for a cold weather pattern.
More importantly take a look at that big BLUE and RED shaded area in the northern Pacific. Notice how all the black lines all squished together. What is happening is that the blue area which is Low pressure in the jet stream and the red area which is High pressure the jet stream are acting as a funnel and squeezing the jet stream in between these two areas which forces the jet stream to enhance its power or speed.
Eventually this super strong Pacific jet will reach the West Coast of North America and when it does it will ensure a lot of storminess for portions of the West Coast but more importantly this enhanced Pacific jet stream will NOT allow for a +PNA pattern to develop and thus little chance of seeing any sort of sustained cold temperature patterns for the middle and end of November
|0Z GFS ( AMERICAN)||0Z EUROPEAN ( ECMWF)|