RATING WINTER STORMS

Posted by admin | | Wednesday 4 November 2009 9:14 am

 MORNING   ENERGY  6-10   and  11-15  DAY   CONUS

ISSUED  11/4/09   730AM   EDT

Click Here  to  see  CPC ’s  6-10 DAY   TEMPS
Click Here to see   CPC”s  8-14    DAY  TEMPS

Click  Here to see  CONUS  Temp Anomalies last 2 days
Click  here to see   CONUS  Temp Anomalies  Last 30 days

 

 6-10  DAY

 11-15  DAY CONUS

 610Tt  1115Tt

 

DISCUSSION

 

 As you can see from the EL NINO data  (see Below)    which actually came out yesterday…  the Australians are in a strong agreement with the folks at CPC that feel El Nino l continues to blow through the roof and warm very rapidly. It is now pretty clear that this El Niño is at the least a high-end moderate event and it is possible that the El Nino could become a strong event within the next few weeks. This of course is very bad news for those of you who got involved with the fantasy that this is going to be a severely cold winter for the Northeast US. I have tried to tell you and warn energy buyers and traders  against this idea for several weeks and with the rapid rise of the El Niño we can pretty much put a fork in THAT idea… at least for the first half of the winter.

 

 The morning models are showing very important feature which is going to dominate the weather maps here for the next 10 days or so and probably even beyond. This first image shows you the European model and what I want to take a look at it is the powerful system which moves into the Gulf of Alaska on Friday. The European model has a system at 951mb which is actually as strong as a borderline category 3/4 hurricane!

 

 

 

This feature is very important because of what it MEANS.    Keep in mind that the typical way we get cold air into the central and eastern US for sustained period of time is when there is a BIG ridge over Western US and western Canada and a trough over the eastern US. This pattern is referred to in the weather business as a +PNA. However with this huge storm moving into Alaska and northwestern Canada the chance of ANY sort of +PNA becomes a remote. This huge system from the northern Pacific is also symbolic of the much bigger problem.

The only reason you get a huge storm like this in the northern Pacific in November is when you happen to have a very strong Pacific jet stream and a very strong Pacific jet stream is not favorable for the development of the aforementioned +PNA pattern. When the jet stream is going very strong like it is in the North Pacific— up to 200 knots– it becomes much harder for it to begin to bend and shift position and without that bending or shifting you can’t get any sort rage on the West Coast of North America and therefore you have no cold pattern for the central and eastern US.

We can also see this problem continuing at Day 10 . This  image give us a nice good atmospheric  view  of the weather patterns. Note this images show a lot
of black lines which are running west east or zonal across the US and Canada. That’s not what you want to see if you’re looking for a cold weather pattern.

 

 

More importantly take a look at that big BLUE and RED shaded area in the northern Pacific. Notice how all the black lines all squished together. What is happening is that the blue area which is Low pressure in the jet stream and the red area which is High pressure the jet stream are acting as a funnel and squeezing the jet stream in between these two areas which forces the jet stream to enhance its power or speed.

Eventually this super strong Pacific jet will reach the West Coast of North America and when it does it will ensure a lot of storminess for portions of the West Coast but more importantly this enhanced Pacific jet stream will NOT allow for a +PNA pattern to develop and thus little chance of seeing any sort of sustained cold temperature patterns for the middle and end of November

 

These maps are from the European and GFS weather models and show you the temperature forecasts from these models for the 6 to 10 day and from the 11 to 15 day. As a general rule the European model and the European ensembles are often significantly better than the GFS weather models but unfortunately the GFS weather models often get a lot more recognition and have more of an impact in the energy markets.

 

 

 
0Z  GFS   ( AMERICAN) 0Z   EUROPEAN ( ECMWF)
. OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE
6-10
Day
11-15
Day

 

4 Comments »

  1. Comment by ken — August 16, 2009 @ 6:10 pm

    Nothing to worry about in the tropics for the U.S. Ana is almost a wave now, and Bill is likely to remain a fish and turn North, remaining off the East coast as a deep trough enters the picture in about 6 days. No big deal from Claudette either – should be inland shortly.

  2. Comment by Kerry Dean — December 15, 2010 @ 9:32 pm

    There is entirely to much faith put in the South Pacific water temperature. There are 100s of other factors! And models pretty much suck, all of them, and will for another 10-20 years. Forecast guys. Dont be model readers. Look out the window once in a while. God!

  3. Comment by Free Article Submission — December 30, 2010 @ 9:06 pm

    I enjoyed this! Well done!

  4. Comment by HYIP — January 6, 2011 @ 12:12 pm

    Would a fly without wings be called a walk?

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