The EARLY Spring pattern has not really moved much from the Winter pattern over Europe.    The dominating feature remains a powerful Ridge centered over the UK and Western Europe. Some interpret this feature to be an east based -NAO and having a block in the jet stream over the UK does technically count as a -NAO but synoptically speaking having a Block over the UK really is not a -NAO.     However the impact for Europe remains the same as if there was a classic -NAO (a block over Ireland and Iceland).     The powerful Ridge over the UK is producing a correspondingly deep and persistent trough over the Central and Eastern Europe into western Russia.     Temperatures are running well below normal and we are seeing significant Low pressure areas tracked through the Mediterranean providing much of central and southern Europe with above normal precipitation.

This morning a satellite image shows that the first system has only moved through the Ukraine and the Black Sea and is now moving into Central Asia and the northern portions of the Middle East.    We can see a second system now moving through the central Mediterranean.

This image shows the morning surface map and we can see the powerful system located over central Italy and the massive sprawling High pressure area centered over Scotland dominating all of Western Europe and especially to Central and Eastern Europe.    The interaction between these two systems is producing a strong southeast wind which is the moisture into central and southern Europe which is only serving to enhance the snow and rain.

This image shows the current 850 Mb temps over Europe and these low readings are quite impressive for early March.    Naturally with this sort of impressive cold air any precipitation which falls over central eastern Europe including the Balkans is going to fall mainly as snow.

By the week and we can see the massive trough moving through Eastern Europe and into the Baltics and Belarus and the western Ukraine.    Temperatures are very cold for this time of year.

BY day 9 the 12z 3/9 run of the European model is developing a Low both at the surface and in the jet stream which moves towards the UK… temporarily breaking down the strong ridge.     And when the Ridge breaks down so doesa the trough which allows for significant warming to occur over central Europe and the cold weekends over Ukraine and Belarus and western Russia.

However this does not last as the models we show the Ridge rebuilding over Western Europe which reestablishes a new trough and a new system diving out of Scandinavia into the Baltics and headed for Belarus and western Russia.

We can see this on the European ensemble which continues to show a strong ridge over the UK and Western Europe and a pretty deep trough over western Russia.

　

These large-scale hemispheric maps show the persistent pattern we’ve seen over the last several days across the north central Atlantic. We can see that the Iceland will has been exceptionally intense over the past week… which in part manifestation of the positive phase of the NAO.(11/11/09).

As you can see in this current large-scale hemispheric shot another strong impulse was moved out of the Iceland low position and underwent explosive intensification over the last 24 hours as the Vort max embedded in the intense 500 Low developed a negative tilt.

The 12z Sunday GFS shows another massive system passing to the North West of Scotland on Tuesday at 960 mb… which dawdles or lingers across the North Sea on Wednesday 11/25…

The system for Wednesday is somewhat supported by the 12z Sunday European model But the Euro has the massive Low significantly further to the north. The third system for this weekend is actually being handled rather consistently between the European and the GFS model as a both show a Low some are around 975 MB over Northern Ireland/ Scotland.

This event should be followed rather closely and local forecasts and media coverage as these systems could do a lot of damage to the southeast coast of Norway as well as the western coast of Scotland Ireland and the Highlands were heavy snow could fall.

And just as the incredibly wet September October has played havoc with the harvest in the US the same sort of things going on in Eastern Europe and Russia with the much below normal temperatures and the excessively wet conditions. Not surprisingly western Europe has had a pretty tranquil October. We can see at this morning on the weather maps which showed a huge trough with eight in that it closed at low over St. Petersburg and a massive trough which extends from the 500 low into the Balkans covering all of the Ukraine Western Russia Belarus and the Baltic states. And in case you haven’t noticed 850 temperatures have been darn cold over this portion of Europe as well with -10c extending from the Karelian Peninsula into St. Petersburg.

Well looks like that’s about to change because a new surge of energy coming in from Iceland over the next several days will carve out a new trough but this will be over Western Europe which will expand in the Central Europe by the end of next week. The first surge of energy will drop all way into France and Italy which will develop a moderate area of low pressure over the central Mediterranean by 11/2… but this feature will quickly be absorbed by the larger trough that crashes into all of Western Europe by 11/6. In doing so the shift in long wave pattern means that the persistent deep trough over Eastern Europe/ the Ukraine / and Western Russia will finally be gone so temperatures will begin to warm significantly by the end next week.