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0730 HOURS   3  SEPT

  Lets  hear  it for the  Hurricane Models….  they handle EARL    very well.   Just about as  perfect as   you can   have  with any hurricane Model of a   CAT 3-4   cane coming up the east Coast.  He turned N  early   and  then NE last night.   As I said on  WRVA  and in the Richmond Times   Dispatch  back on WED  and  Thursday  morning …   the     far   western edge  of the rains  MIGHT   just reach  I-95.

I am outa   of  here… Time to get  ready for  Autumn.     FABULOUS   LABOR DAY    WEEKEND   coming for all…  and  here in the Middle  Atlantic   we   really  deserve it  after this Summer’ s  heat. 

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1930 Hours   EDT SEPT  1

There  has been a major  development with hurricane EARL.  The actually two of them to be the precise.  The first  surprise was that EARL  intensified during this afternoon  back  into it category 4   status once more.  That was not really expected although it was quite possible given how warm the southwest  portions of the North  Atlantic Ocean waters are.

As of   6:00 PM and 7:00 PM this evening the the satellite data clearly shows that hurricane EARL has turned  due North.  This is much  sooner  than midday forecasted  models and    track  has  been calling for.

With regard to the benchmark which I have talked about several times  at  30n and 75 West…   a turn to the north mens EARL  was going to pass much further to east of that benchmark than  forecasted.  As a result the odds are  significantly  increased  that EARL will pass  EAST  of  Cape Hatteras and not even have  a significant impact over southeastern Virginia/ Hampton roads.

Of course we do not   know that for certain yet but this turn to the north is a major development and cannot be overlooked.  Remember we are dealing with  parabolic  curving track  which will only continue to turn more to the north northeast over the next 24 hours.

Keeping in mind   that  Cape Hatteras  is   75° latitude so  if   EARL is ALREADY  moving  due N at  73 or 74  degrees   west Longitude… it is obvious to all that Earl is now going to pass EAST of Cape Hatteras.  In fact   by   Thursday early  morning  EARL  could be   heading   NNE or NE.

All this being said there is a new development  with this cold  front  coming in from the Midwest.   This is the same  strong cold front that is going to help  ” KICK”    Earl off the  NC coast.  But the cold front is developing a significant area of Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and  this Low pressure area is going to begin to emerge with  Earl as he  nears   the southeast  New England  coast.

This sort of margins between a tropical feature and  regular  Non tropical  Low pressure area is not unheard of in September.  And  it  has happened with the hurricanes along the East Coast such as  Hazel in OCT 1954   and  the  September 1938    great Long island / eastern New England hurricane.

The model data shows that this merging  of the   eastern  Great Lakes  Low and EARL   will  pull  EARL back towards the Southeast New England Coast…..  towards Boston   and Cape Cod.  And this mean   that there  could be a large  of     HIGH WINDS –40  to 80  MPH  over   southeastern Massachusetts as well as much as Martha’s Vineyard  and Nantucket.  An area of HIGH winds over  80 mphh are possible over some portions of Cape Cod.  So this who scenario for southeastern England   is going to require a lot of closer scrutiny the over the next 24 hours

FIONA    is still hanging on  but  is NO threat and a    FISH  storm.

 GASTON   has potential to become a serious hurricane as it reaches the Eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.  The  12z  GFS  has   Gaston turning  northwest across Puerto Rico and moving  east of  the  Bahamas  day  7-8-9… while at the same time  a Huge   HIGH  over  NC  and SC  moves off the coast  into the southwest portion of the North Atlantic Ocean.  This huge High pressure area should be enough to block Gaston from turning to the northwest and a north.

1050 am EST  SEPT 1….

The morning satellite picture shows that hurricane EARL is holding together quite nicely and if anything may have strengthened a little bit. On the other hand tropical storm Fiona which looked a very good during the overnight hours ….has completely collapsed here in the midmorning hours because of the influence or outflow from hurricane Earl.

　The 6z and 12z hurricane Models continue to show that EARL is going to make this sharp turn over the next 24 hours to a NNW direction then N then shortly after words NNE then NE. This curve… a parabolic curve …is fairly common or typical east coast hurricanes.  The models have been showing this sort of curve now for the past several runs / Days and the data is really quite impressive. There is no reason to go against the models especially given the overall actual weather pattern.

The cold front which you can see very clearly on the morning surface radar maps out of the Midwest …HERE  – looks pretty strong.   And the Big HIGH out in the Western Atlantic Ocean can also be easily discernible on the morning weather maps and satellite pictures. So we know those two features are there.

That leads forecasters to believe this turn IS going to happen. The issue remains however how fast doex the turn  occur because a difference of 12 hours will have a huge impact on weather conditions Friday over Eastern NC and possibly Southeast Virginia.

The 11:00 AM position has Earl at 25° N latitude and 72° W longitude.  All of the hurricane models show a shift over the next 24 HRS so that EARL will pass very close to 30N and 75W. This is the BENCHAMRK position I talked about in the discussion last night. At that point according to all the hurricane models Earl should be heading almost due North traveling up the 75° west Longitude line and passing just east of Cape Hatteras and about a 100 or 125 miles east of Va Beach.

That is a pretty sharp turn from its current position of 25n and 72 west. Of course it is easily possible for EARL to make that sort of sharp turn BUT there is also some room for error here and that is why I am a little concerned about this turn.

Right now it seems that there are going to be tropical storm force conditions in Hampton roads / SE VA especially along the coastal areas… winds 39 to 72 mph. But the it remains very much a matter of uncertainty as to whether not Hurricane conditions make it into the northern outer banks or portions of VA beach.

FIONA… Which looking really good during the overnight hours looks like cap this Morning. This message that because of the strengthening of earl has increased the outflow from the top of the hurricane which is disrupting a tropical storm Fiona. If this process continues today tonight and Thursday Fiona could die off.

TD #9 will be declared in the far eastern Atlantic at 11:00 AM. This feature does not have any other tropical storms or hurricanes anywhere in Europe and in fact it is located in near ideal conditions. It is also pretty far to the south and 12° N latitude…. And there is nothing over the eastern or Central Atlantic Ocean which is going to turn TD#9 ( Gaston) out to sea. IF TD 9/ GASTON passes south the Puerto Rico it has a very good chance of becoming a Caribbean and and Gulf of Mexico storm attached well down the road and it is not at all certain that TD9/Gaston is going to Pass south of PR. But if it does the Gulf needs to watch out.

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I will be on WRVA 1140 with JIMMY BARRETT 705 am WED SEPT 1

The first Point I want to make is that earlier this morning when it was obvious that hurricane  EARL had leveled off in its intensity    ACCU weather  had come out  and said there  was a  darn good chance that EARL would reach category 5 status.   I suppose discretion is the better part of valor but I  have  never been  very discreet. 

 The problem with that sort of declaration or forecast is that there is very little chance of EARL making category 5  status .  Even this morning line  when EARL  was looking better and was  not seeing  so much SW  sheer day ….the overall atmospheric  conditions  were  not supportive of  EARL becoming a category 5  hurricane. 

Sure it can be said that  Accuweather it did not technically      forecast EARL  to become a category 5  hurricane but that’ is a pretty weak defens …  especially given how much   crap     Accu weather  gives  TPC.    Saying that there  is a chance EARL could become a category 5 hurricane today  was not in the technical sense  “wrong”.    But it was  darn unlikely and the  WRONG  thing to  emphasis .  Words have meaning and implications.  Earlier this morning I received two phone calls and three emails from various sources— some of then NEWS sources  wondering about   Category 5 forecast status.  It took me a while to figure out where this perception was coming from.       In addition the process of why some hurricanes become  category 5 e while others stay a  cat3  or 4 in seemingly ideal conditions is not really well understood.

Late Monday  afternoon the 18z  HWRF…  Which is one of the new and supposedly improve hurricane weather models… came out   ( around 8pm)  and a shifted the track of EARL  dramatically to the left…  towards  Cape Hatteras.  This was important because at the time the HWRF  Model  qwas  one of  models   showing  the Most  east track with  Earl.   This image shows   what the 18z  HWRF  looked liked.  As you can see  this is a pretty big Hit  for Cape Hatteras .

However the  0z  HWRF  which comes out around   2am   shifted EARL to the EAST of  Hatteras again.    HERE.

This shift was also shown by  the 0z  GFS  which took EARL  to the east of Hatteras  by 75-100 miles.  However   the 12z  GFS  reversed  course  and  took EARL right over  Hatteras.  This was the first model of any kind over the last three days which showed earl actually tracking over Cape Hatteras.   I have taken the the surface Map of the AUG 31  0z GFS    and the  AUG  31  12z     GFS and placed at next to each other so you can clearly see the this shift  to the  West.

 The  12z    run of the   AUG 31   HWRF   continued to shift or slide   EARL to the east keeping him to the East of Cape Hatteras on Friday morning .   see image

This image  shows the official track of  EARL — and his  past track as well.    At 4pm this afternoon the   NEW 18Z  Hurricane  Model came out. … SEEN HERE.   Unfortunately they  actually added to the confusion the because  the  18z  Hurricane   Model shifted   EAST  when compared to the 12z  Hurricane  Models.    

 WHAT DOES   ALL THIS MEAN ???

 To many   it will probably seem to be mass   model confusion and uncertainty.  But I wanted  to post this data to show you the type of tricky situation that we are forced to deal with over the next two days… and  meteorologists  have to deal with many many times  a year.

But in addition there actually  IS a method that experience forecasters can use to cut  through  all this Model   “clutter”   and  not be overloaded  by all this  conflicting data. 

We have to see the what the models are trying to tell us as opposed to trying to figure out the exact track of EARL is going to be.   I  dont  wnat to get all  “tao” on you but  right now the   MEANING   of the Models are   more important  than what any one of them are showing.   

The  important point is that once EARL  nears  Cape Hatteras all the data is showing  a  SHARP   turn  to the   NE.  Not a  slight   to   the city  NNE   then  NE….but a   SHARP   tuen to the  NE.     WHY?   All this model data is telling us is that    SOMETHING is coming through the atmosphere which is going to  slam into EARL and  bend himjust as  he nears  the    NC coast /  Cape Hatteras latitude  of  35°  N.   That  is   because   the Midwest cold front  is actually looking stronger on the models to day  than it did   yesterday.
At this point nobody should be forecasting EARL to  keep   Due N  course and  ride  up the   East Coast .  Not only does the model data  tha  not  support that …. and models can  be wrong   — BUT  that idea  does not  make sense given the strength and the power of the cold front coming in from the Midwest.  

So we know a sharp turn is going to occur at some point.  The best way to figure out when  EARL is actually turning it is to set up  a  “BENCHAMRK” .   By that I mean  we   set up a point  that we  can use   track of  EARL  as he  approaches the  SE Coast.   In this manner we can Judge the  forecast  and    se if  and when and how  EARL is turning.    In this case the benchmark is going to be    the   intersection of  30° N latitude and  75° W longitude.  That intersection is about 200 miles east of Jacksonville Florida.

The closer EARL passes   on Wednesday  to  the   BENCHMARK   of  30N  and 75 W…  The more likely he is to make a WIDER   turn  which  strongly implies  Earl would  hit  Hatteras  or   Eastern North Carolina.    On the other hand if  EARL is well to the north of that benchmark …  then  the odds strongly faor EARL   beding NE  sooner and faster and probably the passing east of Cape Hatteras altogether .

This benchmark system was taught to  me  by old hurricane forecaster over 25 years ago and  I have used it many times. It really  does not fail  provided that the hurricane does not stall along  the coast  somewhere .

 Behind  EARL   all of  VA   will see   FABULOUS   weather  for  Saturday Sunday and Monday…..    temps in the   70s and L 80s   Low Humidity   and brillant sunshine.

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That does not mean the hurricane models had been perfect with EARL.     This IMAGE from some are a unknown site from EMC / NWS / NOAA…. is very useful in showing the overall model bias with EARL. In each one of these lines represents various are runs of the gfs… out to 8 days in 12 hours increments .   As you can see the from the very beginning the GFS has consistently turned EARL waaaaaay too soon to the WNW then NW.    The bias are showing up even 12 HRS after the new run of the GFS model initializes EARL . 

Now don’t forget that late last week the GFS was showing earl passing very close to Bermuda. But those meterologist that can see that the problem of EARL’s forward speed new that a track close to Bermuda was not going to happen. This is why I started to show my first statements here and on the FACEBOOK page last THURSDAY & FRIDAY. …… The Fast forward speed of EARL over the past several days has made the system resistant to turning to the NW as soon or as sharp as the GFS and other hurricane models had been depicting. 

This is a very critical point because it has to do directly with WHY and how fast EARL will turn as it approaches the Bahamas.   

A sharper turn to the NW then NNW then N then NNE…. means that EARL is far more likely to pass east of Hatteras ….and the further east of Hatteras the LESS impact over Eastern NC and Southeast VA. On the other hand the slower the turn though Weiner of the turn then the MORE likely EARL is to hit Cape Hatteras or even pass west of Cape Hatteras — over the Pamlico and Albermarke sounds.   

There are of course other complicating factors.      There is the actual forward speed of Hurricane EARL .      A FASTER Earl mean a wider turn for two reasons. First we have the super tanker effect. A large supertanker which is traveling at 20 or 25 knots it is going to do the a lot harder to turn then the same supertanker doing 5 knots. The reason is obvious and self evident. The same thing applies with a faster moving EARL that is approaching the southeast US coast . A faster moving massive category 4 hurricane is going to take a lot longer to make the turn to the NW… NNW … N NNE. The second reason is that a faster moving hurricane EARL means that he is going to get up to North Carolina before the cold front has a chance to kick him out to sea.   

Now I am not forecasting EARL to retain the same speed the has it has been over the past three days.   In fact the latest data is showing that he is slowing down some. But that’s because he is making the turn . It is possible that EARL may resume forward speed later.   

The other complicating factor has to do with the actual cold front that moves into the Midwest the middle of the week.    If I was explaining this on TV or to a group of people I would tell you that the cold front is what is going to Kick EARL off the coast. But that’s actually a gross simplification of the process. The cold front is actually reflective of a strong trough which is moving into the upper plains and the Midwest. The trough is what develops the cold front at the surface —not the other way around.   

As the trough moves east the cold front moves East and the idea is that it will arrive in time time to knock EARL off the coast and prevented from reaching Hatteras. And the odds of very good at of hurricane EARL bypasses Cape Hatteras to the east… he will likely by pass Cape Cod to the east.   

The problem is that all Summer these cold fronts had been forecast to move much faster than they actually have. That is one reasons why the summer has been so amazingly hot across Virginia North Carolina Maryland and the Deep South.   

In addition consider what is driving the pattern — the La Nina and the cold water in the eastern Pacific– negative PDO. The two features have persistently kept trough in the jet stream over the West coast and Rockies all Summer. if you know anybody on the West Coast they will tell you how delightful and cool their summer has been. Because of the trough over the western third of the west we have had to deal with this ridge over the eastern US all summer and thus the extreme heat.   

But that is the problem with the scenarios that this cold front coming through Midwest is going to move fast enough to kick EARL off the coast. There is a case to the made that because of the overall pattern and a seasonal trend that the cold front is not going to move as fast as currently forecasted …. Which would allow EARL to come very close to Cape Hatteras and maybe even pass to the WEST of Hatteras.   

When will we know? WED September 1 will be THE critical day. By that we will be able to see with good accuracy how fast this cold front will be moving in from the Midwest and what the turn is looking like as EARL by passes the Bahamas.   

FIONA.   

Clearly the Fiona… Is a very interesting situation because it is obviously being influenced by the strong outflow from the rapidly intensifying hurricane EARL . And of course she also has to deal with SSTS which have been stired up by EARL…. so are therefore slightly cooler.   

　   
The European model this morning which on Sunday had been the most bullish and aggressive of all the models with Fiona shifted the the forecast track from Florida then into the Gulf as a category 4 or 5 hurricane … to one where FIONA comes up the East coast…. in a manner similar to EARL’s track.   

The 12z ECMWF does the same sort of track and scenario with Fiona BUT the cold front and Upper trough in the Jet stream that Kicks EARL east… is now leaving. The 12z Monday Aug 30 euro shows that Fiona gets pulled North off the NC coast but then gets left behind. A new ridge builds and across the northeast which blocks FIONA from heading up the coast or head out to sea which is forces FIONA into the Eastern NC …. then drifts SW into SC and GA dropping huge amounts of rain and causing widespread and possibly a massive flooding in those areas.   

I think this is the moslty track. I think the 12z and 18z GFS which have NO FIONA and 12z and 18z Hurricane Models that Take FIONA to Bermuda are absurd.   

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EARL    IS  A  NEAR MISS….FIONA   COULD BE VERY BAD    HURRICANE FOR SE  US / FLORIDA

One of the things you will notice on this website is the lack of information regarding hurricanes earlier in the 2010 season. There are two reasons for this. First those events are not really major events and were not worthy of the time and effort it takes to update the hurricane page in addition to all the other clients and forecast which I have to issue on a daily basis.  

Second …Hurricanes DANIELLE and EARL and probably FIONA are Atlantic Coast hurricanes as opposed to Gulf of Mexico storms. This means I have a bit more freedom and leeway to talk about Atlantic Coast hurricanes because these TC do not threaten the Gulf of Mexico’s natural gas and Oil areas directly.  

Let’s get right to it.   

Hurricanes are not people. They do not have brains . They do not have personalities and they are not independent forces that do whatever they want to.    Hurricanes that make landfall on the East coast do so ONLY when there are certain specific synoptic patterns over the western Atlantic and the eastern half of the Conus.   

There are distinct difference in synoptic patterns between East coast hurricanes which have come made landfall & come inland vs. those which are just a brushed the East coast and/ or or only glance southeastern New England.   

In the first group we have storms such as ISABEL   DONNA    HAZEL FLOYD     DORIA    HUGO    FRAN     CONNIE   and DIANE.   

In the second group we have numerous storms which have stayed Offshore. Sometimes by as little as 100 Miles. Some of these hurricanes have hit southeast New England.. EDNA   BELLE   GLORIA    the    Great  Hurricane   of 1938   and    the   Atkantic  Hurricane  of  1944.    But for the most part these TC — tropical cyclones –did not hit the southeast Conus or the Middle Atlantic Coasts.   

On the Facebook page you may have noticed that back on Thursday  asserted / forecasted that the TD– tropical depression — that was to become EARL… had a pretty good shot of passing between the East coast and Bermuda. At that time almost all the data was showing a significantly further east track. A hurricane that passes between Bermuda and the East coast has a specific term which has been used by old timers … its called a “SLOT HURRICANE” . This term refers to the typical East coast the re-curvature hurricane track where the tropical storm or hurricane passes fairly close to the coast but does not actually make landfall.   

That is what EARL is… a SLOT HURRICANE. EARL is going miss the East coast. Perhaps passing 100 or 200 miles east of hatteras or 200 miles east of Va Beach… but a miss nonetheless.     

The is monster dome of at 500 MB over the Middle Atlantic states will ensure that Earl will not reach the coast. This is not an ordinary High pressure area but actually a DOME in the jet stream over 594 dm.     

The Dome on the East coast not only protects the East coast from EARL… but this massive Dome means there HAS to be a equally strong/ deep trough off shore in the western Atlantic ocean. WHY? For every ridge there is trough for every trough   there is a ridge… for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction…　     

Thus one Must face Facts squarely…. There are NO Models…  NONE..  zero….  zilch …nada… that show EARL making landfall along the southeast US coast …the Middle Atlantic US coast …or southeast and New England.     Of course that does not mean it cannot happen but right now the odds still STRONGLY favor NO eastern US landfall.     

Think about it.  Over the last 4 days… we have had 16 runs of the GFS…. 8 runs of the ECMWF 8 runs of the CMC… PLUS 29 various Hurricane Models in each cycle and the Hurricane Models come out 4 times a day. Thus the fact that none of this data .. not 1 time … has shown EARL making landfall on the East coast is a HIGHLY significant.     

The pattern remains unfavorable for Earl to make a landfall on the East coast and these Models clearly see this.     To be sure it is going to be close to be sure especially over Eastern North Carolina and southeastern Massachusetts. These areas could see tropical storm force winds quite easily.     

FIONA     

On the other hand 97L which is clearly a tropical depression right now will likely become a tropical cyclone Fiona. But the hurricane center with its hands full of Danielle and Earl has some leeway here and can wait a day or two before Upgrading.     

But 97L is clearly a TD. This one has me worried… Actually more like terrified. Those are you that know me and a followed might postings here and over at SV know that I have reputation of being somewhat skeptical — but Not cycnical — and to NOT hype events. On the other hand if I see something serious coming I have no problems talking about it and if I needed to forecasted it.     

The last six runs of the European model and the Canadian model– 3 days days twice a day — have developed FIONA into a Monster hurricane. Huge is size and in intensity…. to category 4 or 5 status. the 0z Sunday AUG 29 run of the euro takes Fiona into central FL …near Daytona while the 0z CMC takes her into CHS.     

The GFS has No storm whatsoever.  Not the    early Morning  GFS  or    any of the  4  Saturday runs  or  Friday’s run.  Nothing.    

Of course there are still several aspects to 07L / FIONA. We still don’t know exactly where the center is going to form even though it is obvious that the system is actyally currently a tropical depression.     

This is important because the entire forecast rack begins at a certain point and that point is of course where the low level center circulation –LLCC -actually develops.     

The problem has that the Gap or distance between EARL and the system that is going to become FIONA is increasing because EARL is moving much faster then FIONA. Once EARL makes the turn and parallels the East coast EARL’s forward speed will pickup be the even more.     

This means the Trough over the West Atlantic “FILLS” or disappears. The BERMUDA HIGH– actual name is the W.A.R. Western Atlantic ridge in the weather Biz — builds into the East coast and as far west as the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by SEPT 6.     

Because of this movement FIONA will not be able to turn to recurve.  In fact there may be NO NW movement at all.    The 12z sunday Euro has FIONA passing thru the FL straits then into the eastern and N central Gulf   as a strong Cat 4. This is CLEARLY a shift south from the 0z run.     

To be sure possible to given that this is 8-9-10 days out it is almost impossible to tell exactly where FIONA will be or how strong. However the overall synoptic pattern is quite favorable for the impact in se states or into FL and perhaps into the Gulf.     

The Implications of this sort of storm are hard to overstate. An event like this has far long lasting economic…. social…. ….political and individual consequences. When you or you and your family or friends are in a cat 3-4-5 Hurricane nothing is ever the same. NOTHING. Its like being in a war or a disaster end of the Earth type of Movie,     

You end up with a new life in every sense of the word. For folks in Andrew Hugo Katrina…. their reality becomes ” Before the event” and life “Since that event. “     

I hope the Euro and CMC models are wrong. But I dont think they are. FIONA will be retired for the record books.