730pm    FEB  25

SUMMARY      —————   MARCH 2-3  LIKELY   LATE SEASON WINTER   SNOWSTORM

Please  take a Look  this   table http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/SPF.htm

All of the weather models today except for one – dramatically increased the threat for seeing a significant or major snow over central and eastern Virginia and possibly into northern North Carolina March 2-3.    The one model which did not remains as it has over the past several days the GFS.

The GFS Weather model continues to to perform extremely badly in this upcoming event .    It continues to show wild swings and impossible solutions. The Midday Canadian as well as the midday European bring the Low coming out of the Delta region along the northern Gulf Coast… along the GA -SC- NC    coast and over Cape Hatteras late on March 2 into the 3rd. This track is a classic heavy snow storm track for central and eastern Virginia.    These models continue to show abundant cold air at the surface and aloft.    The European and Canadian models today for the first time showed significant precip in central Virginia and heavy precipitation over southeast of Virginia and much of central and eastern North Carolina.

The European ensemble… which consists of 51 versions of the European model… show over an inch of liquid in the Richmond Metro area and up to 1.5″ of liquid over eastern and southeastern Virginia and northeast North Carolina.     Again the  Euro   ensembel  model shows that all levels of cold enough to support snow.    This is now the 11th straight run of the vastly superior European ensemble which has shown this sort of significant precipitation over central and eastern Virginia.

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/ecmwfensm-mslp-qpf-thk_150.png

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/ecmwfensm-accum-qpf_162.png

Since it is March and our normal daytime max temperature is already have 50 or 52° in central Virginia… it is natural to wonder about temperatures during the event on March 2 — 3. It’s a perfectly legit question. Keep in mind that in the March 1 2009 snowstorm in central Virginia on February 27 was in the 60s then the cold front came through on the 28th and the snow fell on the first of March 2009. In this case however the cold air is going to be set up by the current system which will still be lingering over the Northeast US and in the Gulf of Maine early next week.

As I stated yesterday it is THAT system which will prevent this southern Low from tracking north of Virginia.

All the next few days you are going to see a lot of hemming and hawing from NWS and the TV mets. This is going to occur because of several reasons one of which has to do with the Busted forecasts from this morning from all the weather sources.

DISCUSSION

Now that the Northeast storm is finally beginning to crank up is not whole lot left to forecast for that event so I can spend my entire time focusing on this potential event coming up for March 2-3. Well more than the potential event is now a likely that.

Before we get to that I want to comment about the latest forecast a fiasco from the various TV stations and NWS regarding the ridiculous snow forecast they had for central and eastern Virginia early this Thursday morning.      I was pretty clear all day on Wednesday– and Tuesday for that matter– that there would be no  snow   accumulation  whatsoever for any portion of central eastern or even at Northeast Virginia in the precipitation early Thursday morning.

As I stated in a previous blog entry I was stunned   -and in some ways delighted –   that NWS had issued such a over-the-top and outrageously bad forecast.   There were so many things wrong with the forecast for 1-3 and 2-4 inches of snow that it’s hard to list them all. Perhaps the worst forecast of all was the idea that over far eastern Virginia and the day as well as lower Maryland Eastern shore they would be heavy snow this morning and near blizzard like conditions… which is what the special statement from the NWS offices were calling for.

I’m delighted because in arguing strongly against such a ridiculous forecast it has made me look VERY good Once again . That being said there is a level of frustration here which I need to tell you about.

When you go to the doctor or car mechanic and you have several different opinions about what might be wrong… and it turns out that one of them is correct and the other ones are wrong ….most people do not end up saying that all doctors or all car mechanics are inept or don’t know what their doing.    However that is not true with weather forecasters & meteorologists.    Even though I was pretty vocal and pretty clear about why and what I fault them happen this morning… I am sure over the next few days I will be getting numerous e-mails and comments from people in Virginia claiming that all of us weather guys couldn’t get a 12 hour forecast right… so happily get a five day or six-day forecast correct..

That is   an interesting  dilemma .     I did get the 12 hour forecast correct.    No let me clarify that …I got a perfectly correct.    But somehow another I get lumped with the TV mets and NWS    badly busted forecasts.

When it comes to making medium-range forecasts… bad meteorologists and forecasters are like big generals… they are always fighting the wrong war at the last time.    Already in one of the TV chat rooms in the Richmond    metro-area one of the   TV  forecasters who busted so badly early this morning    is now citing the fact that he busted as proof that   — get this   now –   it’s not possible to make a forecast about the event for March 2 -3.    This sort of reasoning is absurd and really shows a pretty poor grasp of how one makes a forecast in a medium-range. And it’s one of the reasons why I run this website.     That  sort of ignorant reasoning really needs to be challenged.

　The Thursday Morning forecasts busted in Richmond Hampton Roads Washington and Baltimore and lower Maryland Eastern shore because of the failure of the short range model which is known as the NAM . This model specializes in forecasting that for the time frame from 6 to 72 hrs. event for March 2 — 3 is five or six days away. You can see the problem– the NAM which performed so badly has nothing to do with a medium-range forecasts.

But more importantly… if you bust the forecast you can’t just worry or think about it so that the next time that you have to make a decision… you become gun shy.   Each weather event is different and you have to make your decisions based upon the weather events at the time and not on your previous last experience.

 The real problem with the TV Mets is twofold and this problem also exists in National Weather Service. Most meteorologists when it comes to figuring out the extended forecast will look at two and only two weather models  . First they look at the GFS and then the look of the European. These two models can often be significantly different as we see today. In this current situation for next week The GFS says out to sea while the midday ( 12z run)       of the European model shows a significant if not major snowfall  for   VA.

As a result the NWS forecaster or the TV met will say   ”I don’t know what to do…. should I pick  the  GFS  or the   European ?”

As soon as the TV met or NWS ask that question they are already losing the game.     When you have the GFS Wednesday noon run show the Low over Fort Myers FL… then at 6pm had huge Low close to Wilmington NC … then took the Low back to Havana at 12am… you are dealing with a model which is simply dysfunctional and has no clue. By asking the question …. is the GFS correct or the European you are assuming that both models are of equal value. That is false.     In this case the GFS model      is    cluless  and without   any  value.

It’s like trying to choose between a .100 batting average hitter in baseball and Ted Williams led a lifetime career of .411

The very act of asking    “is the GFS correct or is the European correct ?”      assumes that the two models are equal. They aren’t.    Moreover the model trends are clearly favoring the European and the Canadian scenario.   This is why when you’re looking at the data 5 7 and 9 days    out it’s very important in following and establishing model trends. Most TV and NWS meteorologist don’t do this.

As an energy and agricultural meteorologist I do.    The reason why this is important is that if you have not following the trends then you are not seeing that the GFS is flip flopping all over the place even more than usually does.

If you’re not following the trends from late last week – 7 days ago 4 days ago… then you did not realize that the NAM model Monday night and Tuesday were essentially model glitches or hic cups. You thought that the NAM was a viable solution and that’s why you were forecasting snow for eastern Virginia and into the DC Baltimore area as well as a lower Maryland Eastern shore.  

This is exactly why all of the forecast from the TV stations and NWS were so terribly wrong overnight and early this morning. These forecasts are based upon a model which was an outlier ….a glitch …a mistake which appeared on Tuesday night cycle and thru early Wednesday morning– the NAM weather model.

If you WERE   following the trends from last week with the system you knew that the NAM was a glitch in the mistake.    But  MOST   mets   do  not pay attention to the weather models from  6  days ago  or   8  days   ago…..     because ….”it’s too far out …   who cares ….it is too far out   …..and its all going to change…”

In other words the reason why I got this one right last night and had been able to call most of the storms earlier than the TV and in the NWS have been is because I have been following model trends from several days out. Most of these guys do not. As a result you have TV meteorologists and NWS folks who are constantly picking between the GFS and the European as if the two models in equal… as if the trends don’t mean anything.

Trends mean everything!.

 

—————————————————————–

LAST  CALL    FORECAST …   for  Northeast   Historic  East Coast  snowstorm FEB  25-27 

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/lastC.jpg

————————

930pm   24  FEB

One of my hobbies … besides  Basbeball …is military history and wargaming.    Most of the old board wargames from the 1960s 70s and 80s are now on computer but then again so is everything these days.   One of the things I have learned from military history is that bad generals always fight the last war at the wrong time. That also happens to bad forecasters.

Three timess now we have seen significant systems explode over the big cities the Northeast and backlash or wraparound snow has moved into central and eastern Virginia with significant accumulations. Some of these events were well forecasted and some were not.     The point is that being burned a couple times is probably the driving force behind the over forecast by NWS this evening regarding the snow for central and eastern Virginia overnight and early on Thursday.   I just don’t see   “IT”    happening    with the   IT  referring to  1-3″ or 2-4″ of snow  that is going to came accumulate!

Sure for the Northern neck and lower Maryland Eastern shore the NWS forecast sounds great and strongly agree with it.     The radar looks awfully weak tonight in the areas that are going to be cold enough to support snow and the precipitation shield is sliding east and north as the cold air comes in.   There is a reason why I have not Playing this event up either on this website or in my chat room war on WRVA or in the Richmond Times dispatch.

Let’s move on to the next event for our beloved Virginia   . There is little doubt now in my mind that the system coming from March 2 -3 is going to bring in significant if not major snowstorm for central and southern Virginia. Yes I saw the pitifully wretched 12z Wed GFS which has the low moving through Southwest Florida than across the Bahamas next week! Its solution is laughable.

That being said let’s go over a few points. First there is little chance of the system coming inland.    The key to this whole event happening is based upon two critical points. It is important for you to understand these two concepts.

The system over New England and the Northeast.    This    is the current system developing over the Northeast this evening and tomorrow.   As   this Low   “bombs out”   over the Northeast   it’s   strong winds and large circulation will pull down a boatload of cold air into Virginia and NC.   By late the weekend this huge system will weaken   at the surface   BUT still remain rather strong in the upper levels of the atmosphere — were the jet stream is.    This system will move slowly away from the Maine coast next week.

For Virginia to get a major snowstorm will we need is this system to move away slowly and keep the cold air in place…   BUT   we needed the New England system to be far enough away so that the Low can come far enough to the north with the significant precipitation.

If the New England system moves away to rapidly the southern ….. IF ….    THE Low COULD come further up the coast taking a heavy snow into Northern Virginia and DC/ BWI. This scenario however is   UNLIKELY   y to happen because none of the model data right now is moving the New England system rapidly out into the Atlantic Ocean. As long as the blocking remains very strong over Greenland the New England system will not be able to move away quickly.

The second critical point is   WHERE WILL   THE SOUTHERN   LOW  FORM    on FEB 28 -March 1st???     If the low forms out in the central Gulf of Mexico this will increase the chance of the system staying too far to our south to give Central or Southwest Virginia significant snow.    This kind of track would mean that Raleigh and Greensboro might see significant / heavy snow.

If on the other hand the surface Low forms over the Gulf coast and tracks through the Florida Panhandle and then through war just north of Jacksonville that sort of development would significantly increase the chances of central ….southwest and eastern VA seeing heavy snow.

You should be aware that it  is likely that in the pitiful    wretched and loathsome GFS weather Model is going to go back and forth and screw this up several more times.    Any model which goes from having the Low track south of the Bahamas like the 12z GFS did    …to the very next run showing a 987 low just south of Wilmington North Carolina is a useless piece of crap.

Unfortunately several of the TV meteorologists are unable to do basic synoptic analysis and forecasting and gave the 12z GFS some consideration. Let me explain to you why the 12z GFS is not viable.

As you can see from this image… at DAY 6 the upper level piece of energy in the Jet stream at 500MB is located over Alabama and Mississippi. Without getting too technical let me just state that basically there is a relationship between the upper-level energy and where the surface Low forms. In addition to the upper air Energy Low-pressure often forms along the coast where there is a significant temperature contrast between the warm ocean and the cold land.

Thus the 12z wed GFS at day 6 that had the surface Low over Key West …that make NO sense at all with regard to the Upper Level energy being over Mississippi not over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near Cuba!!! LOL!!!!

There are several reasons why the GFS does this sort of crap. Suffice to say that it’s one reasons why anybody who is trying to get an accurate medium-range forecast should NEVER refer to the GFS for any sort of East coast possible event passed 84 hours. It is a pitiful wretched useless model when it comes to East Coast storms. One day soon I make a post about why the GFS is so bad.

The 12z CMC – Canadian has the exact same feature as a GFS at DAY 6. But notice for the surface low is!!! It’ i over the far western Florida Panhandle. This is critically important because a track from the western Florida Panhandle takes is low very close to the Cape Hatteras NC area which is an ideal track for major snowfall over Central Virginia.

Here is the 12z European model. Again as you can see the Uper level energy is over Mississippi/Alabama and the surface low is very close to the Florida Panhandle NOT over friggin Key west or Ft Myers FL! Not surprisingly the European takes a system very close to the North Carolina coast and does have some snow getting into the Richmond area.

Even more impressive is that the European ensemble’s over the past 5 cycles… at 0z and 12z each day… has been hitting central and southern Virginia with large amounts of precipitation. Generally the amounts have been in the 1.0 to 1.5″ range and it has been all snow according to the European ensemble. I showed some of these runs of the European ensemble’s yesterday.

Here is the total precipitation for this event from the 12z wed 2/24 run of European ensemble. As you can see Richmond is in the 1.0 to 1.25″ band . Areas to the N and W are in the 0.75 to 100″ band and areas to the S and E are in the 1.25 to 1.50″ band.

Finally the proof that the MY analysis of the situation is correct is the dramatic and violent shift to the north by the 18z GFS… which now in fact has a massive storm… with heavy precipitation — either rain or snow over much of southeastern Virginia and far northeastern North Carolina.

 

 

 

——————————————–

930pm  23  FEB

Let me briefly talk about the March 2-3 coastal storm which appears to be setting up for a free serious snowstorm  for northern and western NC and southern VA and possibly central VA.    The 0z Tuesday morning Canadian showed a historic blizzard as I discussed earlier which you can see here.  http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/ahdk_50.gif

The 12z GFS and 12z euro do  not show a huge snow hit for Central and Southern Virginia at this time    but interestingly enough the 12x Tuesday GFS ensemble IS  further to the north and west –that is to say closer towards the SC/ NC coast than the operational GFS.  

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/gfsensm-mslp-qpf_198.png

 That is also is the case with the    12z  European ensemble which does show a significant no make that heavy snow for Central Virginia with Richmond getting over 1.5″ liquid equivalent during the event.

These images show the 12Z European ensemble….
http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/12zecen174.jpg

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/12zecen180.jpg

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/12zecen198.jpg

Again the key here is going to be the interaction between the remains of the New England big storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere.    Even after the surface  Low l begins to weaken fall apart this weekend over New York State and New England the Upper levels (500 mb) portion of the humongous doing a storm will still be affecting the pattern for the next several days.     The massive system will pull down a ton of cold air all the way into the Carolinas which means that the precipitation will start off as snow and mainly fall as snow for much of northern NC and central and southern VA. but that is assuming that the system tracks close enough so that we get to see heavy snow.

This is why I am certain that the system  MARCH   2-3  will either be a  1)  a major snowstorm or    2)   a MISS   for  VA   but a BIG snow   for  RDU/ GSO .  There is little chance of the system tracking in land.    From NC and VA the dilemma that we face is that we need the big system in the jet stream over New England to be far enough away from the coast of Maine so that the Southern Low can come off the coast  …… BUT    if the New England Low is too far off the coast of Maine     then the southern system   COULD  l track further to the north and the snow could change over to rain from Central VA southward… so locations such as Roanoke Lynchburg Charlottesville the Shenandoah Valley the Northern neck Northern Virginia DC and Baltimore could possibly see another massive snowstorm!!!

At this point we just don’t know for CERTAIN.     That being said none of the model data is showing the New England system leaving the coast of Maine rapidly .    The reason that the New  Engald    system can not rapidly LEAVE the coast of Maine and move out into the northern Atlantic is because the blocking feature in the jet stream over Greenland and Eastern Canada. At blocking feature has been there all winter and it’s one of the reasons why the winter is been so bad.. so cold and so smelly on the East Coast.

Since we   KNOW  the blocking feature over Greenland is   NOT    leaving anytime soon… certainly not over the next seven days!!!…    we know that the system over New England is probably going to move slowly off the doing the New England coast.    That means that we will have a very good chance for this southern system to come further north like the European ensembles are showing.

The data is clear that the European ensemble product is the best ensemble product in the world when it comes to predicting weather patterns and systems in the medium-range and it’s impressive snow numbers for Central Virginia and its track close to the coast…. is very impressive and has to be given a lot a weight.

 ———————————————————————————–
0845   23  FEB

If you are reading this you also need to take a look at the New England storm which you can find on the NE US snowstorm Tab or by clicking on this link.
http://www.wxrisk.com/?p=719

 

The Canadian European and GFS models last night continued to show a major winter storm threat of  potential   of a   HISTORIC   proportions for portions of Northern NC and Central and soouthern   VA.    Let me state quite clearly that the 0z Canadian is a historic    record-setting snowstorm for the Richmond Metro area probably down towards Raliegh and Greensboro as well.     The Low simply develops very rapidly bombing out along the Georgia coast and tracking over Cape Hatteras.   This is the exact same track we saw in the record-setting January 1940 and stored blizzard that hit central and southern Virginia. For those of you that do not know that is a storm of record which dropped 21.7 inches of snow in Richmond 30 inches in Farmville and Danville and temperatures were subzero… -6 to -12 at Richmond for several days after the storm and as low as -16 in Farmville and Fredericksburg.

Now let me be clear I am not forecasting that kind of storm. Please understand I am not. What I’m telling you is that the track of the Canadian which you can see here is the track of the January 1940 storm.

The 0z GFS and 0z European are very similar tracks to the Canadian   BUT   they are shift a little bit to the East by 100 to 150 miles which keeps the heavy snow over North Carolina and perhaps just into Hampton wrote in southeast VA  (which could be rain).    Given the fact that the storm is still  8  or  9 days away the  model variation  were are seeing  is actually not a surprise and a pretty good sign that a major winter storm is coming from NC and VA.

Do not focus on the model variation between one run and the other but instead look at the model consistency and try to figure out what these models are telling you is going to happen in the atmosphere. That is what the purpose of looking at WEATHER models that are showing a major event still 8 days out.

The key point here is I think at day 6 and day 7.    If you take a look at the European and the GFS track they both have the  LOW developing in the Gulf of Mexico — not near the LA / MS  coast but almost in the central portion of the Gulf of Mexico.    From that point below track through central L  and then south and east of Hatteras which is why the 0z European and GFS bypass Richmond with a monster snowstorm.

The Canadian model has a system developing on the coast and as result below tracks over Jacksonville and then comes up the coast in a perfect classic heavy snow track for Richmond and all of central and southern VA.

So you see that is the key!   Where does the LOW  form on March 1?        The data clearly supports the LOW forming closer to the coast which is also where the temperature contrast is… called the baroclinic zone in the weather business… and closer to the 500 mb short wave energy.

Therefore if you keep that in mind and you adjust the track of the European and the 0z / 6z GFS you end up with the track very similar to that of the 0z Canadian.

Images out shortly. The bottom line is that I increasingly confident that there will be a major winter storm for a good portion of Western and far North Carolina as well as a significant portion of southern VA. If the Canadian track is right this storm will set a record for the most snow ever the month of March in Richmond Virginia. IF… IF IF…..

 

 

——————————————————–

1830   FEB 22

SUMMARY: I have gotten some e-mail requests from several people asking me about giving a plain English summary of the main issues in each blog update. So I will be doing that from now on. In addition I am working on setting up a statewide Virginia forecast page involving various geographical regions all of the Old Dominion and providing for gas information for them at the 10 or 12 days.

 I am going to be talking about the potential for a major winter storm March 2 -4 along the East Coast which would be the fourth major event of the season. If you are located in locations such as Charlottesville Roanoke Northern Virginia DC Baltimore and maybe Philadelphia as well as Delaware in southern New Jersey and you dont like snow…. I would be darn worried.

　On the late afternoon and early evening update I am going to   talk only about the threat for the potential of a big / Major   Middle Atlantic coastal storm/nor’easter March 2 — 3. Quite frankly this is looking very January 1996.   I have to be careful about this because you get an awful lot of weather hype meisters and weather weenies out there who really LOVE to throw that term ” blizzard of January 96″    at    least two three or four times a winter.

That being said the data here is looking pretty good for this system. The 12z Monday GFS has a system once again too far off the coast when you compare it to what the upper atmosphere pattern is depicting. Still this is further to the north and west than what the 0z GFS had but it is still way too far to the south and east when you compare it to the superior weather models such as the Canadian and European as well as the GFS ensembles.

Here is the 12z GFS from today 2/22 at day9.

 As you can see the model is too far south with the coastal low even though it is stronger and a little closer that was early this morning. Unfortunately I saw comment today from one of the TV stations in Richmond where the forecasts are clearly looked at the GFS and decided that the system for March 2 — 3 might miss VA. That is one of the reasons why have this blog is so that I can show you that superficial judgments like the one made by this on air met from a Richmond Virginia TV station are not really correct and probably harmful to the public perception that weather models are unreliable as it is longer-range weather forecast.

Now you can compare that to the 12z GFS ensembles. Remember these are different versions of the GFS run from this morning at the same time that the 12z GFS was run. I have highlighted the individual members so you can see the difference. All 12 members of the GFS ensemble are substantially further north than what the operational one is depicting at day 7.5. This means that the GFS ensemble is significantly further to the north than the operational run.

 And we can see that by looking at this graphic…. notice where the coastal low is— about 200 miles closer to the North Carolina coast! The GFS ensemble is a major snowstorm for much of central western and northern Virginia as well as Western NC.

  
Here is the 12z European model. Now one of the flaws that the European model has is that it sometimes has a tendency for slowing down systems that are in the southern jetstream. By that I mean if you see Low pressure on the European model which is over Arizona and Mexico or Texas the European model has a tendency all having these systems move slower than they should. That is exactly what happens on this one of the European model.

The system lingers off the Carolina coast for 2 days while strong cold High pressure is located over Pennsylvania and the Great Lakes. The Model has the heavy snow JUST reaching north of the VA NC border perhaps as far north as Richmond.

Again want to check on the European ensemble we see that the ensemble mean ease further to the north and west and what the operational European showing and we can see that here .

All this leads me to believe that there is going to be another major winter storm before the winter is out next week along the East Coast. Interestingly this event would not occur in a weekend but in an middle of the week …which seems to break the seasonal trend AND the long-held tradition of major winter storms occurring over the Northeast US during the weekends. For example this major winter storm for New England and upstate New York IS
going to occur on the weekend as well.

 

—————————————————
0930 FEB 22

Not surprisingly the 0Z 2/22 run of the GFS again shows a blizzard for much of New England for February 25-26-27 as a model once again bombed the system out right over Cape Cod and just hammers New England for a 2 day. And once again the other models don’t show that sort of development with this system. The 0z 2/22 euro has a system bombing out just like the GFS does but it does so significantly further to the east — in the Gulf of Maine which is bad news if you don’t like snow in eastern Maine in New Brunswick but that sort of development is not a blizzard or major snowstorm for Boston and east in knowing what. SOME snow and wind yes but not a major event.

The Canadian is an interesting compromise because it does hammers SE and eastern New England late on the 25th into the 26th with heavy snow as low bombs out by the system continues to move into the Gulf of Maine before he gets captured by the large powerful 500 low coming in from NY state.

The 0z 2/22 Ukmet / british Model is very close to the European. This model has been insisting that these first LOW will move in land over Cape Cod or southeastern New England then get pulled into Vermont… on the 25th before a second low forms well off the southeast New England coast. That LOW also gets captured by the 500 MB Upper Low and is pulled northwest into the Gulf of Maine. Again not a huge hit for Boston and eastern women in terms of winter weather– but a pretty big hit for Interior New England and upstate New York.

The GFS ensemble is split with several members showing a huge hit for much of southeastern New England while 50% members have the system in the Gulf of Maine.

The 6z GFS looks like the Canadian and British models by pulling the first Low into southeastern Mass then having the system do a counterclockwise loop over eastern New England as a gets captured by the powerful 500 MB Low.

Further down the road the 0z GFS at 174 and 180 hrs appears to showing a developing snowstorm for the upper South and the middle Atlantic states. The model has a closed 500 mb Low over southern ILL and some sort of surface Low developing well off the Texas coast in the western Gulf of Mexico. However this model is already depicting the surface Low much too far to the south and west. Low pressure areas along the coast almost always form where the temperature contrast is greatest which in this case would be along the Texas Gulf Coast were just in land… the 0z GFS has the low forming 300 miles southeast of Galveston Texas for Christ sake!

Keeping in mind that the model resolution shifts dramatically after 180 hours it’s not a surprise that the 0z GFS “loses” the system as it slides off the southeast coast. This of course is nonsense.

Not only do the GFS ensembles show a track much closer to the coast but the 6z GFS 2/22 run as a major snowstorm for all of Virginia and much of western and NW NC.

The 0z 22/2 euro and 0z 2/22 CMC show a monster storm coming up the East Coast. For Central Virginia the European model strongly implies heavy snow blowing over terrain while West Virginia up in the DC and as far north as Philly would see another massive snowstorm. However the reason why the European model brings the southern BIG low inland a bit is that the model delays a system about 12-24 hrs. This delay means that the New England Low of FEB 26-28 will be further out into the Northwest Atlantic Ocean so this southern low on March 2 can come for the North.

The Canadian is very similar to the European and a very strong sign that a major winter storm is coming for the middle Atlantic Coast March 2-3.

=======================================
1900 FEB 21

I know it’s been a while since I posted here last– two days but it’s been a busy winter and everybody needs a day off… and with lots of sunshine yesterday and today here in central Virginia were temperatures reached 60°– it was a much-needed time off.

There are two distinct issues or events to talk about this afternoon and the second event is strongly dependent upon the first event.   The first event is the potential for major snowstorm possibly even a blizzard for portions of eastern New England coming this weekend… if some of the model data is to be believed.  The second event has to do with potential for significant winter storm over the Southeast states and into the Lower middle Atlantic region (NC /VA/ possibly MD) on March 2 — 3.  But this event is strongly dependent upon the New England and Gulf of Maine low and what it does this weekend and early next week.

So let’s deal with the New England storm first and see what we can figure out from the model data today.   It is important that you keep in mind the sequence of events here.

FIRST The Low coming up through the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday will bring moderate snow to the Great Lakes in northern New England and rain/ showers to the big cities of I-95.

SECOND That low will die off and a 2nd Low will form on the middle Atlantic Coast. Because low-level temperatures will be too warm as well as temperatures at 850 MB… this New Low will also bring mainly rain to the coastal areas of the Northeast but just in land over Connecticut and interior Massachusetts this will be a significant snow event.

THIRD.. at the same time all the weather models agree that a powerful trough in the northern or polar jet will move into the Great Lakes and then close off in the upper atmosphere. The term we use in the weather business is called a ULL or Upper Level Low and I have presented the 12Z 2/21 GFS 500mb map to highlight this powerful feature.   Also notice that there is a second piece of energy which is over Texas– the BLUE circle.

 

FOURTH … ALL of the Models takes this southern Low over FL or east of the GA coast and Merge the two into one massive Low either somewhere over New England or offshore in the Gulf of Maine.   The most impressive model with this storm for February 26 -28  for  the eastern New England area   is the GFS and it has been a less couple of runs.

We can see this on the 0z 2/21 run of GFS takes is a southern piece of energy swings into the Gulf Coast states and develops a new area of Low pressure east of Georgia and 96 hours– 2/25. At the same time as you can see from this image that big Upper Low Low (hereafter called ULL) which was over WI is now moving through New England.

 
The 0z CMC — Canadian model– supported the idea of a major snowstorm/blizzard for eastern New England at the 0z 21/21 run.

 But the 0z 2/21 run of the European Model is Much further to the east with the Big nor’easter — see 108 and 120 hr European model.

This is supported by the European ensemble which also shows the system setting out much further to the east. At this point there’s an awful lot of overwhelming data now showing that as impressive as the GFS runs have been most the data does not support

 The UKMET or British model is somewhat of a compromise between the GFS and the European model. The initial storm develops farther out the east than what the GFS was showing but then ends up rotating through Boston packing to New York State underneath the huge ULL at 500 mb (see the red lines).

The 2/21 run of 12z GFS takes things to the extreme. As the Low well east of the se coast comes north it gets captured by the the powerful energy in the jet stream associated with the ULL. When these two things meet …BOOM!!!!! The Sunday GFS is showing an outright blizzard for much of New England.

12z 2/21 run of GFS 120 hrs… as you can see the model has a 976mb Low located over Cape Cod in the perfect position to hammer Boston and much of New England with high winds and extremely heavy snow. This is an outright blizzard according to what the model is showing.

12z 2/21 run GFS at 132 hrs .. the Low has weakned slightly to 980 mb but it has mood is very little in the last 12 hours. Again if you are a located in eastern New England and you love snowstorms and blizzards are probably very happy you see this 12 the GFS run.

 This image shows you the 2/21 12z GFS run snow forecast amounts for this event and you can see it’s producing a large area of 12 to 24″ of snow over eastern upstate NY…. from the Poughkeepsie e to Montréal and over much of western and central Mass all of VT and much of NH.

The problem is that all of the other 12z 2/21 Model data does not support the GFS New England Blizzard solution. First let’s take a look at the 12 the GFS ensemble data. Remember that the ensemble is a conglomeration of other GFS runs made at 12z Sunday… to give us some idea of whether or not this extreme solution as shown by the 12z GFS has any sort of support. I have highlighted the various GFS ensemble members here… we have 12 maps look at and the top row way over on the left is the current or operational GFS run. As you can see most of the other ensemble data does not show the same sort of crippling blizzard for New England. Most of the ensemble members shall assist a much further to the east over the Gulf of Maine.. which would restrict the high winds and the heavy snow to Maine and perhaps the Cape Cod area (ocean effect snow squalls).

 
In addition the Canadian model which at 0z did support the GFS now does not . The 12z CMC pulls  the coastal Low back into interior New England underneath the powerful ULL at 500 MB. This sort of scenario would mean a New York State
Northern New England type of major snowstorm and not so much for Boston and southern.

 

The 12z 2/21 Br Model is still doing what it did before:    Pulling the coastal Low back into interior New England or New York State.

And the new 12z 2/21 run of European model is adamant that the huge storm is going to form but it’s going to be further to the east and affect more of Maine and at Northern New England then it will the Boston area and southeastern Massachusetts.

 

This  stalled Low  … this massive system and a huge block in the atmosphere over eastern Canada— which is the -NAO — is going to set the stage for the next major event in early March which at this time it appears to be mainly a southern system and one which could bring a major snowstorm to much of the Tennessee Valley and the lower middle Atlantic states.

All the models agree that because of this powerful system stuck in the atmosphere over eastern New England    the next system is also being forced to back up and slow down. This means that the jet stream over the West Coast is going to be forced to do something different with this trough than it normally might do. This system will dig southward into the sw states and Lower Plains 2/28 and 3/1.   Significant Low pressure will form over eastern Texas on the western Gulf while a new source of very cold air is forced southward into the Plains and Midwest and the Northeast behind the New England storm.

This is why the New England storm is so important. It’s a slow stalling position forces the cold air to come southward and in addition keep this up and system well to the south… so the cold air can get into places where it normally does not such as TN KY NC and southern VA.

We can see the setup for this whole system on the 500 MB from the 12z 2/21 GFS run. The system over the Southwest is highlighted with the blue marker and the strong Low east of knowing New England.

The 12z 2/21 GFS run as a system coming out of the Gulf but the model tracks it ENE off the NC coast which only gives southern Virginia a glancing blow but a pretty major snowstorm for too much of western and northern North Carolina.

 
The problem is that if you look at the 12z GFS at day 10 the Upepr air maps strongly imply that the system should be much closer to the coast and further to the north.

 We can see this again by taking a look at the 12z 2/21 GFS ensemble run. Again I have highlighted the map on the top row way over on the last which is the actual GFS run from this afternoon. The next 11 maps I have clearly point out which systems are a major winter storms and / or snowstorms. Four of the other 11 members are big snowstorms for Virginia and North Carolina while several other members are showing a significant winter storm in land.

 At this point I am not worried at all with regard to any land track with the system. As long as the larger storm is still on the Gulf of Maine or perhaps south of Nova Scotia Canada this system coming out of the South cannot possibly go inland.

 LAST  CALL    FORECAST

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/lastC.jpg

—————————————————————————————-

 1755   24  FEB      LAST CALL   MAP AT   11PM 　

God Almighty has been so busy today… I’m almost at the point of exhaustion because not only do I have to deal with this current Northeast storm of historic proportions but also the event for next week for the Virginia North Carolina area which is also looking like a major snowstorm for them… and probably a miss for DC and points northward northward.

The 12z and 18z NAM have both shifted significantly to the west and now have the coastal low tracking 300 miles east of Cape Hatteras on Thursday morning as it heads for Cape Cod. As the upper low moves closer to the northeast coast the surface low against the bomb out and gets pulled underneath the 500 MB Low. This process is called capturing the surface low and happenings during the times of intense cyclogenesis — when Big Lows form.

At that point the surface low will do a counterclockwise loop… something that I and many other meteorologists have mentioned many times over the last 24 hours. The issue becomes very important as to where the Low makes this Loop de Loop. Since late last week and over the weekend most of the medium-range weather models — such as the GFS past 84 hrs… the European the Canadian and British model as well as most of Canadian GFS and European ensembles have all shown this process happening. The low according to these models was supposed to turn northwest and track from Providence or Cape Cod towards Albany… stand turn Southwest and track back into either Northeastern Pennsylvania or New York City.

That sort of track would mean that the edge of the heavy snow would be very close to Philadelphia and nothing will fall south and west of Philly.

Nothing substantial   Meaning  over 4″) .

BUT … Starting with the 0z 2/23 run the Monday the NAM…    that Model  tok the coastal Low off of eastern NC tracking much closer to the coast NC VA MD and NJ . As a result the NAM has been capturing the NOT over southeastern Massachusetts or Rhode Island …but much closer to New York City.   And because this capturing took place much sooner the NAM had the Low still making that loop the loop or counterclockwise motion… but now it was dropping below back into PHILLY with several hours of heavy snow.   That is why so many of the forecast and forecasters have been talking about huge amounts of snow in PHILLY.

IN addition becuase the 2/23 0z Nam 6z Nam 12z Nam 18z Nam and the 0z 2/24 NAM all had the Low getting captured much earlier these runs of the Nam model showed “mild” air into Albany and NYC. I argued with THREE energy mets in a chat room today that NYC would see only 3″ of snow and Albany 6-10 at most.

　I have not agree with that scenario for a while and I still don’t. Of course I do have significant snow in Philly but for me on not even sure that’s going to verify. The 12z WED 2/24 NAM shifted significantly further to the east and we can see that in that the 12z NAM model drop the snow amounts in Philly by more than 50%. The 0z and 12 European … as well as the European ensemble… Are also showing a landfall coming in over Rhode Island or Eastern Connecticut and show a very sharp cut off between significant snow and no snow located right over Philly.

This is also the case with 12z RGEM and CMC. The 18z NAM is even FURTHER EAST!! This is shift to the east by the NAM means that my forecast for Albany still has a chance of verifying. I am still quite nervous about this as I am for New York City and the potential for both of these forecast to bust is significant. I simply am not confident about where the rain snow line is going to set up as it pushes in land from eastern New England towards the New York State line.

———————————————————
1045  FEB  24   1ST  CALL….   THE  BUST  POTENTIAL  IS  HIGH   FOR  NYC

 http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/1STC.jpg

——————————————————-
2015  FEB 23

The first thing that I want to do here is show you the maps from the great blizzard of March 1888. Back in 1988 as a member of the CCNY local AMS chapter myself along with meteorologists mark Kramer and weather hobbyist Gary Solomon were the driving forces behind setting up a Centennial anniversary of the great storm. Attending the conference were several notable authors including Paul Kocin along with several writers and publishers who had written historically important books about the great blizzard along with some other notable meteorologists including Nick Gregory and Glenn Schwartz.

Speaking strictly from a meteorological perspective there are not too many people on the planet to know more about the blizzard of 1888 than I do … and one of those 3 people that do know people that do know more than I … Paul Kocin I already mentioned.

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/1888.jpg

As you can see the key to the 1888 blizzard and the system humongous amount of snow was the coastal front which set up in a north to south direction splitting New England in half white over the Connecticut River. In that storm as you can see from the map Boston did in fact see a lot of rain…. while the stalled front aided in fronto genetic forcing . The strong east wanes with blood in the relatively mild temperatures also had her tremendous amount of moisture…. which hitting the ftont would then be lifted over the arctic cold air. In addition western of the front the oragraphic lifting due to the high terrain in the western Mass western CT and eastern NY was key in developing huge amounts of snow fall.

　http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/1888SNOWTOTAL.jpg

If this description all that great storm does not look strongly resemble what all of the short range models are currently depicting that I don’t know what will. Of course it’s not an exact 100% perfect match but is probably as close as thing as I’ve ever seen in my lifetime to the 1888 blizzard. In the current event it does look like there’s going to be more rain than what we saw with the 1888 storm.

In addition to what is also striking is that the 1888 storm like the February 78 blizzard engaged in a counterclockwise loop de loop . In February 78 previous slow drift and turn in a counterclockwise direction is why the storm lasted so long over eastern New England and produced such damaging winds for a long period of time and humongous snowfall totals.

In the 1888 blizzard the same sort of thing occurred.

As we can see from all the short range models… the 12z NAM    18Z NAM     12Z GF    S 18Z GFS the    0z ans 12z RGEM      the 0z and 12z CMC the 0z and 12z European as well as the British model…  ALL      show this same sort of slow counterclockwise    “loop de loop”    turn in the track of a system. The difference is that with THIS  storm on Friday the Low rotates back into eastern New York and then  drifts   southward back across NYC and into CT.      By Friday morning the system is totally vertically stacked from the surface all the way through 850 mb 700 mb 500 mb and it is stalled and centered in either right over New York City or just to the west in northern New Jersey.

==========================================

 1200    feb 23   http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/1STg.jpg

The 12z  Nam has started correcting itself  and moves  strongly   towards the    GFS    solutions and to a lessor degree towards the Ukmet and   CMC. The Model  still has  6-8″ of snow in PHILLY which is     absurd … the Low    ANOTHER   Manitoba Mauler !!  -on the  sw  side  is NOT  going to  produce    that much  snow THAT  far away from the Low.  Huge Hit   for    NYC    northern NJ      eastern NY  from  HPN  to ALB

————————————–
1000   23 FEB     forecast MAP   
http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/1STg.jpg

  Yesterday  on the  NE  US  snowstorm page of this web  site I  made  the case that   this  event   bears   striking  remsemblance   to  1888  blizzard and the feb 1978  new  england Blizzard  ….but  becuase this  event is going to bring  rain to  much of   central and eastern New  England   the  1888   event   is closer analog.   I see this morning  My    friend in     PA is saying the  same sort of thing. 

One of the unfortunate things about the NAM/ WRF … among many problems the model has… is that it comes out before the 11 pm news and sometimes a lot of TV meteorologists and forecasters will look at the NAM before going on the air. Moreover the dad is pretty strong that the NA is a very bad model past 60 Hours. When you combine these two facts you end up with some pretty bad weather forecasting which apparently was going on and has been going on in the photo of the metro area for the last 24 hours or so… with the exception of of course Glenn Schwartz over at the TV 10. The other faulty meteorologists there have been bearing for healthy with snow because of this absolutely ludicrous solution posed by the 0z and 6z NAM as 72 to 84 HRS.

It is even more ironic that often times when the    0z Nam has a really stupid solution past 60 hours you’ll get numerous neurologists and weather weenies who pontificate about how the model is unreliable past 60 hours… but now that the NAM is suddenly showing a humongous snowstorm for PHL because of its ridiculous solution ….suddenly the Nam is really quite good after 60 hours. Its laughable!!!!

　It is not that the NAM solution is wrong or that it cannot possibly be correct .    The issue is that if you compare the NAM solution to the vast majority of all the model data over the past five days regarding this impressive event coming up for the Northeast US this weekend… you will see that it has a solution which is diametrically opposed to what any of the model has been showing or any other model in ensemble runs.

It’s just a basic rule of meteorology… that when you have a ton of data / weather Models showing XYZ and one model showing ABC… usually that one model is wrong.

　The last 10 runs of the European model has shown the coastal low developing much further to the east which then bombs out as it moves into southeastern or eastern Massachusetts then tracks the Low as far west as Albany. I have posted the maps many times over the past few days. This drives warm air deep into New England forcing the precipitation to change terrain not only for Boston but also for places such as Worcester Bradley Concord etc. locations such as Albany Poughkeepsie New York City see lots of heavy snow.

 We also see this solution with the Canadian and with the British models as well. They all have a low forming much further to the east… below begins to develop rapidly as the 500 mb powerful upper low moves into New England… which then captures the coastal low and pulls it into eastern New England… and take the system is far west as Vermont NY border.

In many ways this is similar to the February blizzard of 78 and March 1888… more so I think for the MARCH 1888 . That storm was much closer to the coast in the February 78 storm was and the March 1888 storm did see much of eastern New England go over to rain or sleet for an extended portion of the storm. There was a frontal boundary running from the low right up through central New England and the Connecticut River Valley and west of that boundary is where the heavy snow of 40 inches or more fell over the high terrain of southern VT western MASS western CT and over eastern NY from Albany to Poughkeepsie.

1645 FEB 19

We are finally getting some clarity with regard to the mishmash and the wild oscillations and fluctuations in the medium and longer range models… at least as far as I’m concerned things are beginning to make sense.    And if   it is  now  making sense to me hopefully I can convey   some of this  to you  and show you what I think is going to happen.

If you recall the argument from this morning be 0z and 6z GFS and the 0z European model had diametrically opposing solutions with regard to the last few days of February.   Both models were taking the Ohio Valley FEB 23 Low into New England and New Brunswick Canada.    But the GFS model was developing a second wave of Low pressure on the cold front after it sweeps to the East Coast.     The European and was showing a southern Low over the Gulf Coast FEB 26 …which according to the European model from this morning… would move off the southeast coast and then merged with the system over New Brunswick Canada.

After looking at the 12z Models I can tell you that the European model has blinked and it now looks like the GFS will probably be correct.

FEB 22-23 OHIO VALLEY.    Each passing model   run  is taking this Low further and further north.  Only yesterday it looked like  the snow  for  the  Midwest was going to bypass Chicago and bring 6-12″ of snow to STL central ILL… northern and central IND & OH then into Northern PA and NY state and perhaps into Boston as well.       But the track of the system has shifted to the north again… with the snow now reaching Chicago and and Detroit while much of the Ohio Valley appears to be getting rain as the temperatures rapidly warm!
This also means that Boston may not see any significance snow out of this event either.

 

 FEB  25-27
I am only going to show you the 12z European model and British models this afternoon.

Here is the 96 hr Euro and as you can see it now has a second low forming on the front along the east coast or just off the East Coast while the deep trough ( red lines) is developing over the northern Great Lakes.

 by 144 hrs I have highlighted the RED Lines to show the Upper trough and I superimposed in BLUE letters UPPER LOW… so you can see the feature more clearly. Notice the Low is EAST of Cape Cod.

By 168 hrs — DAY 7 — the surface Low is deepening rapidly… and has now turned northwest into Northern NY State and VT as the whole system becomes vertically stacked over New England!       The surface isobars are pulling in Arctic cold air from central Canada as far south as the Tennessee Valley and GA!     And by day 8 the entire system is still stalled over Maine and the entire eastern United States is in the grip of a severe Arctic air outbreak for the end of February into the 1st week of March.

 the British model shows much of the same thing.     At 120 hrs we can see the second Low developing on the front off the East coast much in the manner of the European and GFS .    By day 7 this surface Low as bombing out as well over or vertical is to Cape Cod as the upper Low is capturing it and pulling the whole surface low northwest towards New Hampshire and Vermont!!!

Maine and interior New England could see a Blizzard if tiese Models are correct.

With this monster system now vertically stacked over New England and the Gulf of Maine the cold air will be impressive and all encomposing as we close out the month of February and into March.     With such a huge system and so  many  500 mb   lines around it… occupying the Northeast US and southeastern Canada …. any additional system in the southern jet stream over Texas   and  the Gulf Coast will only be able to gain a little good latitude as it tries to come north.

We can see the European and the GFS are in strong agreement  at Day 10 as to what the overall pattern will look like.     Both models show the system stalled over northern New England.    Both models show a strong ridge or block over Greenland and the Davis Straits preventing the Big New England Low from moving out into the Atlantic Ocean and away from North America.     And both models show a strong system over Texas spreading significant precipitation into the Gulf Coast.

 

 

This system poses the risk of bringing a significant late-season snow storm to much of the Deep South and the lower middle Atlantic states– NC and VA.    Eventually the huge storm over New England is going to move away slowly.     As it does so it will allow the southern system to come north a little bit… but exactly how far to the north this system moves will determine if there will be another major snowstorm or not.

It is quite possible that the New England system will stay there through early March.      If so the southern Low will fly off the coast of GA / SC and only those areas could see a significant snowstorm… one for the history books.

It’s also quite possible that just as the system is moving into the southeast states the New England large upper low and trough will finally move away and the whole southern Low could then come up the coast and everybody could get hammered with the big snowstorm from Georgia and SC to NYC.     I think this possibility is rather unlikely as a system like this is not to move away very quickly and has a huge blocking feature in front of it.

Right now I don’t see this southern system moving any further north than 34n or 35 N latitude… while the huge New England Low dumps the cold air into the TN valley and the Lower middle Atlantic.     March 2-4…. could be interesting.

——————————————————————————–
0845  FEB   19

I must say that say that as a synoptic scale meteorologist this is a very interesting and unusual pattern that we have to deal with here in the last 8 days of FEB.    Both the 0z European and the 0z GFS models are showing a significant system of some kind developing on or just off the East Coast and being situated there for a fairly long period of time.   Whether or not these coastal Low will be close enough to the coast to provide any significant snow for New England or in the middle Atlantic region remains up in the air.

Usually when we are in these complicated and uncertain situations like this it’s best to start out with what we know and work from there.

We know that the next system on February 22-23 is going to track up the Appalachian Mountains / Ohio vallewy then jump over to the middle Atlantic Coast on the 23rd. This track will bring significant snow too much of the Ohio Valley as well as Illinois and Missouri and over the interior of the Northeast. Because the transfer of energy takes place so late there will be significant warming over the big cities of the Northeast and much of the precipitation will fall as rain. Over New England this looks to be a significant snowstorm but just for that region.

Okay that’s what we do know is going to happen. Then things diverge and were left with a lot of uncertainty.

THE   GFS  SOLUTION  “SOLUTION”

 Basically the GFS takes the New England 2/23 Low into se Canada while its trailing cold front stalls over the SE states and a second wave of Low pressure develops.  The 0z GFS takes this New Low just offshore as the 500 Mb Low intensifies over the Great Lakes and moves into the Northeast.   This allows for the coastal Low just east of Virginia to get   ”captured”   by the Upper Low moving east from the Great Lakes into New England.    This results in a massive storm that pounds the hell out of New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces February 26-28.    The 0z GFS has the pressure down to 974 mb when the    Low is in the far eastern portions of the Gulf of Maine and approaching Nova Scotia.

The GFS comes about the solution because the model shifts the huge block that has been over Greenland northeast Québec and Labrador southeast into the Canadian Maritime provinces.   This is a very unusual development and I personally main skeptical that the 0z GFS solution is correct.

 
 

 

 That being said …it should be pointed out that the 6z GFS continues this trend and if anything be coastal low gets pulled closer to the Virginia coast at 144 hrs… mainly because the deep 500 Mb Low over the Great Lakes is stronger in capturing this system.    The 6z represents a significant snowstorm for Eastern Virginia and Easton Maryland IF the model is correct.   Once the Upper Low has captured the surface Low the system simply explodes off the New England coast and becomes a monster Low that produces huge amounts of wind and ..bitter cold temperatures across the entire eastern third of the US and blizzard conditions for Eastern New England.

THE 0Z    EUROPEAN    “SOLUTION”

The 0z European model also develops a monster storm off the East Coast but does it later because the whole sequence of events is vastly different than what the 0z and 6z GFS are currently depicting. The key point here is that both models do eventually come up with a pretty massive storm here on the East Coast were just off the East Coast by the end of the month.

The European model comes about the solution differently because it handles the February 22-23 Low differently from what the GFS is showing.    The European model takes the February 23 New England low over Eastern New England 2/24 where are the Low deepens somewhat and stalls over New Brunswick Canada.

 But the 0z euro Model does NOT have this 2nd Low developing along the southeast coast.    Remember it is this Low which moves just offshore on the 0z and 6z GFS that then bombs out as it reaches southeastern Canada. Since the European does not have this system the Low over eastern New England and southeastern Canada is not nearly as strong.

Instead the European has a much stronger piece of energy at day 7     moving through Texas and the lower Plains.    Strong low pressure develops  on the 26th /27TH  over Georgia and Florida as   the  Southern Low rapidly intensifies.    This has all the makings for major  Southeast US   snowstorm    …..BUT we still have the system stalled over Maine in New Brunswick to deal with.

Because that system is STILL trapped / stalled over New Brunswick and Maine the deep Low developing over Florida and Georgia has to make a ” wide turn” before he can turn north up the coast. Eventually low does but by that time it’s too far out to sea to bring any snow to the Southeast US or Virginia.

Even more amazingly the European model actually pulls this Low off the southeast coast north as this Low Bombs out into a HUGE ocean Low.    If this system was say  150 miles closer to the coast there would be a historic snowstorm and potential blizzard for the Southeast US into Virginia.    But that is not what the European model is showing.

Instead the 0z euro  takes the Low trapped over New Brunswick Canada and pulls it southward as the  southern Low  well off the  GA  SC  coast   comes North!     These two Lows eventually do a Fujiwara dance and become one monster Low in the West Atlantic Ocean just offshore of the East Coast.     At this point this new Low pressure area has bombed out and really intensified but it is 200 miles too far to the east for any portion of the US to be caught in this blizzard.

 

 

 of course you have to remember this is Day 9 or date 10 and it’s way out there in time.

Even though the European and the GFS solutions are vastly different from its other the key factor here is the stalled Low over Maine in New Brunswick— the Feb 23rd Low.    While we do not know at this point which scenario is likely to occur… or maybe neither them are likely in both models could be wrong!!!…    I can   say that   IF    the 2/23 Low were to shift to the north or Northeast by a 100 or 200 miles…. that would allow for the GFS coastal Low to come much closer to the US coast or the Huge southeast Low on the European model solution to come much closer to the coast.

——————————————————————

0850 18 FEB

There is NOT much to change in the morning models with regard to the two potential significant systems that I posted on early yesterday evening.

FEB 22-23 system:   The 0z GFS takes this system through southern Virginia which poses a significant snow threat to places such as Charlottesville Washington, DC Baltimore Northern Delaware into southern New Jersey… where they really don’t need the snow off course.    However all the  other  models continue to take the system through the Ohio Valley– these other models  being  European the Canadian and British models and Most of the   ensemble  data.

In addition the 6z GFS came out early this morning and it also shows the track back to the west of the Appalachian Mountains.  This leads me to believe that the 0z GFS solution from last night is bogus and is a classic case of the models south and east bias appearing. Indeed if one were to shift the track of the Low on the 0z GFS 100 or 200 miles to the west… which is a common adjustment when the GFS is showing its cold air bias… you end up with a track either through the Appalachian Mountains or into the Ohio Valley.

FEB 26-27.   There is no doubt that after the system moves up into southeastern Canada Arctic air gets released once again into the central and eastern US. However none of the operational models right now are showing any sort of solution which matches the impressive and stunning 18Z gfs monster East Coast snowstorm scenario. The European model at day 9/10 does develop a Low well-off the southeast coast but the model appears to be having trouble phasing the two streams so by the time the system finally develops at the surface it’s well-off the South Carolina coast. We see similar such solutions from the GFS and Canadian. All of the ensembles are bit more promising with the potential for a significant event at the end of February but we are still a long way out here.

This is why we have to wait and see what happens with the February 22 — 23rd event. THAT Low is the Key. Why now the weather models are working on a forecast based upon an event/ system — that being the Feb 22-23 Low becoming the New 50/50 Low at 500 MB over southeast Canada– which hasn’t happened yet. It is always a very dangerous thing to base a forecast on a event which hasn’t happened yet and then extrapolate from that!

 ——————————————————————

17 FEB 1800 EST

First let me go over the new developments with regard to the potential event for February 22. The only model which were showing any sort of winter weather threat to system for the middle Atlantic states early next week was the European model. The 12Z Wednesday European model however shifted dramatically to the west and now shows a solution similar to what the GFS and the Canadian model showing.

Why do the European model which generally is a superior model to the GFS and Canadian shift with the track of the system for February 22 and now agrees with these of the models and takes up the Ohio valley ?

as I said in the previous Post…

This image at 96 hours shows the 0z GFS depiction of the overall pattern across North America this weekend and I have highlighted several features. The most prominent ones are the strong block over eastern Canada in Greenland and the larger vortex over southeastern Canada. These two features combine to assure that the flow stays essentially flat or zonal — that is to say west to east.

We are then stuck in a forecast dilemma… EITHER the other models are going to shift to the south and east like the European model or the overall pattern across North America this weekend is going to be significantly different than what the models are currently depicting. Those are only two choices.

the KEY part is in RED .

The VORTEX at 500 MB over southeast Canada — which in the weather business is referred to as the 50/50 Low — IS pulling out. This is significantly different from what the European model was showing earlier today. And since the outlier model has now shifted its scenario and solution to what the other models are saying the odds are very strong now that the track of this system of Edward 22nd is going to be up the Ohio valley… which is rain for most of the middle Atlantic states. (VA MD DE NJ eastern PA) .

 

However this system is very important because it sets up the potentially more significant event that I’ve been talking about for several days… for FEB 25-26.

( I think my 1st post on THIS threat was FEB 13).

Even though the Ohio Valley track for the February 22 system is going to be a disappointment snow snow birds in the middle Atlantic states …keep in mind two points. First as I stated above this system goes up the Ohio Valley or Appalachian Mountains because the 500 mb vortex/ 50-50 Low is pulling out. That feature has been around for a long period of time and it’s not a surprise that it’s finally sliding east.

So without the 50/50 Low there the short wave that generates the surface low over the Delta this weekend can only track in one direction which is northeast… and thus we end up with the Ohio Valley track. Sure it’s possible the system may cut over to PA and give New England a significant snowstorm and I’ll deal with that later.

But the significance of the Ohio Valley Low is point #2. The Ohio valley Low will become the NEW 50/50 Low over southeastern Canada early next week which will set up the pattern for the potentially far more significant event on February 25 — 26.

We can see this happening on many of the ensembles but especially on the 18z GFS.

 

 

The 12z euro at day 9-10 is close but the model just shows a massive trough over the entire eastern half of the nation with a very powerful and strong vortex centered over the Great Lakes in the Northeast.

However the 12z European ensemble mean shows a very powerful negative height anomaly moving off the VA / NC coast FEB 25.