1100  EDT  MARCH  30 

There is no change to the forecast for this coming weekend. The long holiday weekend— April 2 3 and 4– will be ideal across the entire Middle Atlantic region including the Commonwealth.   Temperatures will likely reach the middle 80s across much of central and all of Southern Virginia Friday and Saturday and near 80° across Northern third of Virginia with a few readings in the L 80s.   Moreover the humidity will be very low and there will be very few clouds in the sky through Sunday. 

Of course for the NJ NYC Long Island and New England this interval of sunshine and warm temperatures will be much needed and much welcomed given the impressive storm which is pounding the hell out that area this morning.    The flooding will be extreme and extensive across much of New England over the next several days but the good news for them is that once this powerful coastal storm leaves the northeast… There is no hint of any significant rain for the next 10 days.    There is a cold front which will be approaching New England on Sunday night and Monday but this system is tracking towards Montreal bypassing New England to the north and west.   This is often a sign that the cold front is weakening and any associated showers and thunderstorms with the frontal passage will be insignificant. 

That cold front will also reach the Middle Atlantic states on Monday, April 5 but it it will not have much kick left to it and I think the showers and thunderstorms associate it with the frontal passage will not be a big deal. 

Weather models show another major system for the Upper Plains and the upper Midwest April 7 – 8. 

APRIL 9-10-11: 

This Midwest trough and surface cold front will reach the East coast on the April 8. The cold front passage will have decent amount of Showers and thunderstorms with it. 

The issue becomes what happens to as cold front once it reaches the East coast?  Some of the weather models would actually developing another coastal Low — the 6z GFS in particular — over the weekend ol APRIL 10-11.    But not all models agree with this idea. Most the data is sweeping this upper trough and coastal front off the coast so that the weekend of April 10 – 11 Looks fairly decent. 

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1100   EDT   MARCH 29 

Most of the commonwealth is in for treat for the upcoming holiday weekend as will most of the East coast as well as the Ohio Valley. And given how harsh the winter was… this will be a treat which most of us deserve!! 

Although the Easter holiday is often viewed as the first true holiday of the warm season much of the time it often turns out to be not that nice for all 3 days.   Often there is rain on at least 1 of the 3 days and temperatures often are chilly.  In fact there been some pretty bad conditions historically over the East coast during the Easter holiday season.    However this time around we are not going to see anything like that.    A major surge in the jet stream over the eastern Pacific Ocean is going to carve out a pretty big trough over the West coast and Rockies. This trough will move into the Plains by the end of this week. 

In response to this trough the atmosphere is going to counter that by developing a strong ridge in the jet stream over the eastern third of the nation. This strong ridge will bring High pressure at the surface and very warm temperatures for early April. 

Temperatures will rapidly begin to warm over the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday which will spread into the East coast. 70s will be common across most of the commonwealth on Thursday… and 80s are a good bet from I-64 south into all of NC… and near 80 from interstate 64 north into DC and MD. The warm sunny weather conditions will continue on Saturday and Sunday … With both days featuring brilliant sunshine and warm temperatures. 

There will be NO rain on any of the three days.  NONE. 

The only concern to this forecast is the potential for a   ” Backdoor cold front”    coming down from New England on Saturday and Sunday.    Backdoor cold fronts are actually fairly common over the northeast US during the Spring season.   They are caused by the still very cold ocean waters along the coast. Any sort of the East or NE wind drives this cooler air over the still chilly oceans inland.    This in turn causes a significant temperature difference between the coastal areas and inland sections over the Middle Atlantic and New England states. 

Some of the weather models are showing a coastal front driving south from New England along New Jersey Maryland Delaware coastal areas into the Chesapeake Bay on Saturday and Sunday.  IF this were to happen …IF… Eastern Virginia especially near the Bay area would see temperatures 10-15 degrees colder then inland locations.  

Thus it is possible but not yet certain that the northern neck… Middle Peninsula… and Hampton roads and Eastern Virginia up to about the Richmond Airport could see temperatures significantly cooler than what we see over Tappahannock Ashland Short Pump and Dinwiddie . 

It is still uncertain as to whether not this backdoor cold front will reach into Eastern Virginia and if it does how far inland does this cool front push. Either way this front will not have ANY precipitation with it so the odds are very strong that the entire holiday weekend will stay dry. 

1100  EDT   26 MARCH  

Sunday will be a lot nicer day and significantly warmer with less wind. By midday will have strong southerly winds bringin warmer temperatures but the next system coming in rapidly across the Midwest will spread clouds into the area by Sunday afternoon in the western third of commonwealth and the rain should be in that area by early afternoon if not sooner . Some of the models have the rain reaching southwest Virginia by noon Sunday.  

　The models this morning are showing significant rain across portions of the commonwealth with some areas getting 1 to 2 inches and some T-storms likely Sunday night into Monday morning during the overnight hours . I am Holding up the models this morning are a little overdone with the rainfall amounts because we surely don’t need that much rain coming in given how wet the grounds are and how high the Rivers are running .  

APRIL 2-3-4  

This is going to be the first big weekend of the Spring season … Which is often the case for the Easter holiday . Over the past several days has been strong indications that a new surge of energy in the Pacific jet stream is going to carve out a pretty serious trough over the entire western third of the CONUS next week. This is going to bring a lot of rain to the West coast … The Great Basin and eventually into the Plains states by April 1.  

In response to this massive trough… The atmosphere is going to counter that by developing a strong ridge over the eastern third of the Conus. This ridge will reach its maximum intensity by next weekend… Then as the trough over the western CONUS begins to drive into the Plains states the ridge will be forced east as well and cover much of the East coast and the Ohio Valley. 

Some of the model data this morning are showing temperatures getting into the 80s across much if not all of VA NC SC TN GA AL MS… And well into the Upper 70s over OH PA MD NJ DE NY and Southern New England. The only thing keeping me from forecasting even warmer temperatures than that are the very wet ground and saw conditions across the northeast .  

This may be the WARMEST Easter weekend for the northeast US since the record HOT Easter Holiday back in the mid 1970s.  

1100  EDT    18   MARC H

The only change I have to the forecast for this coming weekend  MARCH 19-20-21    has to do with the arrival of a cold front   on Sunday.     The overnight models… the 0z march 18 runs… all show that the surface AND upper Low  is going to develop very rapidly on the cold front as it moves through the Mississippi Valley.    The system actually closes off at 500 mb — by that I mean the system actually separates itself from the main jet stream and it becomes a close cut off UPPER LEVEL LOW…(which is referred to as a ULL in the weather biz). The models actually show that the system becoming    so strong in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere that it may bring down enough cold air so that locations such as Arkansas portions of Missouri Western Tennessee and Western Kentucky could see snow on Sunday or Sunday night.

However for the East Coast and especially the middle Atlantic states the development of this system means that the cold front  HAS  to halt its progress eastward.   Once the surface Low and ULL begins to move into the Ohio Valley… to the NW of VA/ NC/ MD… then and only then can the actual cold front at the surface begin to advance eastward . But not until that happens.

As a result of rain will  NOT   even get into the Tri-Cities area until late in the day on Sunday… and  into  Roanoke area until the sunser on the 21st.    This means everybody over the Shenandoah Valley to Piedmont east towards the  Chessy Bay    and  up towards Washington, DC MD  PA   and eastern NC  will all see a bright sunny day for most of Sunday as temperatures in the 70s.    The model data is pretty strong that this cold front is going to hold off and not bring rain into the middle Atlantic region till sunset Sunday. The clouds may increase a Sunday afternoon especially over Western VA western NC and WVA but based upon the model data this morning it looks like where to get an extra day a bright sunshine and warm temperatures across most of the Commonwealth on Sunday.

Hot diggity Dog!     That being said have no mistake once   this Low gets here     a lot of rain  will fall on  Monday.     This is because the ULL and surface Low  can no longer track up to Ohio   and  the eastern Great Lakes but is   now forced to take up much more southern  track   since  the system  is going to be  separated   from the  main jetstream.   This means that will see a lot of rain on Monday across VA NC and MD.

MARCH 26-27-28.    The overnight and early morning models continue to show a pretty strong cold front moving into the Midwest late on the 24th and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on the 25th.     Ahead of the front Thursday will be warm day but the clouds should increase pretty rapidly.    In order to salvage something from the weekend of 3/26 – 3/27 – 3/28 we  NEED   to  get this cold front to move  quickly on Friday and NOT   stall.     It is going to bring significant rain with this passage on the 26th.

However the models overnight are beginning to develop a new or second area of low pressure over the Tennessee Valley on the 25th and 26th.   This is rather reminiscent of the system for this weekend over the Midwest… and the development of the significant low over the Tennessee Valley.    The 0z European really catches on this idea big time with an ULL developing over the eastern Lower Plains on the 25th that moves into the Ohio valley on the 26th then up through the Appalachian Mountains.   This sort of scenario would provide a major rain event for much of the Midwest and into the Northeast and significant showers into MD VA NC     Friday night into early Saturday.     However after that the cold front moves rapidly off the coast    SO  skies clear out    and   most of Saturday and Sunday would be decent.    Not sunny and warm but at least … according to the 0z European model… 3/27 and 3/28 would   be generally sunny or ” fair” and NOT raining.

The 0z GFS does not agree with the solution …. but    the 6z GFS has turned significantly towards this idea so it looks like the European is probably going to be correct.    Moreover the European models’ solution of a major spring time storm with widespread heavy rains and high winds… and possible big snows for the Great Lakes… is strong supporter by the Canadian model as well at day 9.    Again for VA MD and NC this would mean heavy rains coming in Friday night on the 26th but the rest of the weekend would be chilly windy/ breezy BUT dry.

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1050  EDT   17 MARCH 
From my point of view… a good portion of this coming weekend forecast is already set or determined. Of course that being said you have to understand that my reference or time frame is mainly day 3 to day 30 so this weekend is essentially just around the corner from me.

The model data overnight remains in very strong agreement with how this weekend is going to play out over the Commonwealth– and much of the East Coast for that matter. Friday looks like a great day with temperatures reaching into the low 70s across much of the southern half of the Commonwealth and bright sunshine. It will feel spectacular out there!!!

Saturday will be much the same…    a spectacular sunny day …great for getting lawn and garden work or just getting out of the house.     The strong sunshine today Thursday Friday and Saturday will allow for soils to dry out significantly near the surface.     In my opinion Saturday will be the best day we have seen since last October or September.    If I sound excited about this while you are right I am…   but I get excited about a sunny day in the spring as I do about a major winter storm in January.

A stronger surface Low will develop over the Delta Saturday night… and the development of this low through the Ohio Valley on Sunday will slow the fronts progress eastward. This means that for most of central and eastern Virginia Sunday will be another rather nice day with lots of sunshine to start things off and again temperatures pushing into the low 70s.

The clouds will increase over West Virginia are fairly quickly on Sunday but I believe the rain will hold off until Sunday night or early in the predawn hours of Monday. Sunday night and early Monday morning will be rainy and there will be some thunderstorms involved as well.

MARCH   26-27-28
The looks like it’s going to repeat itself with this next event… which develops over the upper Plains and the Midwest March 24 and 25. All the models are actually closing the system often the jet stream but the issue is where? The Canadian looks the most unpleasant for the middle Atlantic region with regard to March 26 — 27 — 28. This model actually closes the 500 low over the eastern Tennessee Valley or lower middle Atlantic region which would put it much put the entire weekend into the crapper.

The European has the 500  MB  Low over the Ohio Valley and a pretty deep trough developing over the eastern US for that weekend…  that would drive the rain off the East Coast by Saturday morning or midday temperatures would be running below normal for most of the weekend.

The 3/17   operational GFS at 0z and 6z   runs are on pretty strong agreement with the European model.    The model runs do show a  track and Low  similar to what this weekend systems going to be but it is a little further to the east.     The rain moves into the middle Atlantic region Friday night and clears the coast by midday Saturday… but significantly or heavy is Possible north of MD-PA state line.

 SUMMARY   FOR MARCH 26-27-28:     Rain   is  a good Bet  Friday coming in west to east late in the day / evening.  Saturday  Morning 3/27 loks wet and  chilly… rain will be over by  Midday  all  areas but  it will be   breezy or windy at times and    CHILLY….   SUNDAY looks like the best  of the 3 days  with the most sun but Nothing   like this  weekend  or  March 19-20-21. 

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3/16/10  1730  EDT 

Midday Models   are  Holding    steady with the  scenario.  FRIDAY  and SATURDAY   will feature  Brillant  sunshine    Bright  blue skies… WARM  temps    light south  breezes   and  temps   well Above Normal…. Friday   U 60s and L  70s over southern half of the  state…  M and U  60s over    Northern half .      Saturday   even warmer… 75 or 76  is  possible over   Lynchburg   Richmond    Petersburg   Danville    Franklin  and   Ashland!!   

The  12z   euro and  18z GFS  are   holding steady with  the cold front    passage coming east  Sunday morning ….    BOTH Models  show rain  and  some storms  reaching   SW  VA and Roanoke areas — see the MAP…..   by   2pm  Sunday    and  reaching  central VA…   by    4-6pm and   eastern VA and the Chessy/ Bay  Hampton Roads area  by 8pm.  These Model runs a   bit stronger with the cold front  and  are now   showing some  storms with the passage. 

 WEEKEND  2 —MARCH 26-27-28:
 The  12z   3/16  runs of the   GFS and   ECMWF   ( the  “euro’”)   both show   now a Major   Low developing for the     eastern   US… it looks like an inland track   ansd the Low looks BIG and very wet  for later on the  27th  and  most of the 28th.      Those of you looking for   a   another  warm sunny nice  weekend …   well it does NOT look good. 

12Z GFS  DAY  12.5  VALID SUNDAY  3/28  http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_288m.gif 

 12Z   ECMWF  DAY 10    VALID    FRIDAY  3/26  http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_12/PN_GZ_240_0500.html 

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3/16/10  1130  EDT    

The morning weather models have turned dramatically nicer for the weekend with respect to weather conditions over the middle Atlantic states and especially over Virginia! The models continue to show that the second Low IS going to develop on the front but well west of the Appalachian Mountains. This means that the cold front when he reaches western Virginia will probably be weaker… and slower in arriving. This also means that central and eastern Virginia will probably stay sunny most of the day on Sunday…. and with the strong middle MARCH sunshine kicking in ….it looks like Sunday is looking to be a warmer day than I originally thought.   

We can see this on the models here this morning. This first image is the European model with the left-hand map valid 8pm EDT 3/20 and the right side map 8pm 3/21. Hello starts out over at Little Rock Arkansas and tracks northeast into the Ohio Valley and then eventually up across the eastern Great Lakes Western New York State. This sort of track is taking the heaviest rains west of the Appalachian Mountains as the Low is pulling away from VA. Thus the cold front when it inally does reach central and eastern Virginia is weaker and had less rain with it.   

 next we have the 6z GFS valid 2PM Sunday 3/22. The Low is over sw Michigan and is tracking away from VA. The Low has a trailing cold front cutting through the Ohio Valley with significant showers and thunderstorms associated along the front. But because the low is tracking to our west and north and not attacking the Ridge over the East coast directly… the front will rapidly fall apart when it reaches the Appalachian Mountains.  

Not surprisingly the temperatures are rapidly warming all weekend over much of the Southeast US and the middle Atlantic states. This image from the 6z GFS shows significant warming at 850 mb…. with much of VA seeing 850mb temps of +6c by late in the day with bright sunshine and the Southwest winds. That gives central and southern VA a max possible temp in the L 70s  

We can see that here on the next image which represents the clouds ( RH at 700 MB). As you can see the trailing cold front is quite sensible in the RH field but it is NOT very impressive looking at all … with only 70% RH which is just getting too far southwestern Virginia by 2PM .  

Finally the Canadian and British models show the same sort of scenario with the significant Low forming over the Mississippi river valley or over the Ohio Valley… and tracking NE…. either up the spine of the Appalachians on the western side war through the eastern Great Lakes. So the bottom line here is that if this low is really that far to the west by 8pm EDT Saturday evening a good portion of Sunday over the Commonwealth… as well as over NC and MD will be pretty nice.  

———————————————————————————— 3/15/10  1923  EDT     

 Not surprisingly the 12Z   3/15 run of the European ModelI MUCH  Drier  for  Saturday  March 20….  as this Model  slows   down the front for this weekend as it comes East.   It does so because the area of Low pressure that develops is now developing much further to the west.   This means that the Low rapidly intensifies as it moves through the Appalachians and the Ohio Valley… in doing so it actually strengthens the ridge over the East coast.   

 Indeed by Sunday morning the 12z European model has a 999 mb Low centered over Central KY perhaps near Bowling Green…. with one front running from the Low into far western GA (near Atlanta)  than into the Florida Panhandle while the northern end of the front runs from Bowling Green chose Cincinnati and Cleveland into Toronto.  East of this front temperatures are mighty warm  for Mid March.   

At lower levels Strong southerly winds will increase and Saturday could be a mighty nice day across much of the Commonwealth. The MOS temperature guidance has temperatures reaching the low 70s over much of central and southern Virginia!  And if the ground was dry we probably would be even warmer than that south of the Rappahannock River.  This also means that the rain could hold off even in Southwest Virginia and Roanoke until dawn Sunday… and that the best rains appear to be tracking up the Appalachians and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.   So if you are headed towards or returning from WVA   Central Western PA and western MD on Sunday you could see a lot a rain.     

WEEK 2  — MARCH 26-27-28:    The Models are a little wetter late this afternoon with the ensemble that are showing some sort of system moving through the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Some models take this Low and track up to the Appalachians into PA   and NY state.   This sort track would bring the front through much of VA  either late on the 26th or the 27th but this sort of track would NOT   bring a significant rain event for Southwest Central or Southeastern portions.     

Some of the data has a more southern track with this Low which would wash out a good portion of the 26th and / or the 27th.     

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3/15/10 11am     

The main change in the weather models overnight in regard to the upcoming weekend… MARCH 19-20-21… has to do with the timing of the cold front and thedevelopment of a   second area of Low pressure  on ther front  which develops over the southern Appalachians on Saturday and Saturday night.    The 0z run of the 3/15 European model is moving this front a lot faster.    Rain and thunderstorms move into southwestern Virginia and the Tri-Cities region in the predawn hours while the Sunday… maybe as early as 10:11 p.m. on Saturday.    Once the Low pressure area develops it actually begins to slow down a little bit according to the European model which keeps a most all Virginia in the rain for a good portion of the day.      

This solution is not supported by the European ensemble data at all which has a system developing over the Midwest and is significantly slower.   In addition the 0z CMC (Canadian model) as well as the British model and the 6 z GFS are also slower with this front  becuase those Models  show the  2nd Low    developing on the   front MUCH further  to the West.   This   would slow   the cold front down which means that Saturday is more likely to stay sunny and Mild/ especially for central and eastern Virginia areas.     

Given how wet in the entire state is there’s going to be some concern as to which areas all of the Commonwealth will see the most rains.    A lot of this is going to depend on where the second low on the front begins to develop… and what track it takes.   The most aggressive model with the rain over the Commonwealth is the 0z 3/15 run of the European model which brings in widespread significant rain to almost all areas of the state on Sunday the 21st.   The model does this because the second low that develops on the front  much further to the east and the Low actually tracks through western VA then heads up into eastern PA.     The other models do not support the solution.     

Given how the operational European model is so far out on its own year and doesn’t even have support from its own ensemble I am going to discount this early-morning solution by the European model and keep the forecast for Virginia unchanged for Friday Saturday and Sunday March 19…20 and 21.     

     

SATURDAY 3/20… easily the warmest day so far of the spring across the Commonwealth. Weather Model are developing a major Low for the Midwest that has the potential to bring that portion of the nation widespread severe weather on its eastern side and rain going over to snow… and possibly heavy snow …across the upper Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes.    However for Virginia… this system will still be too far away to affect any portion of the state during the day on the 20th.   Strong southwesterly winds will send temperatures soaring into the Low 70s across central and eastern portions of the state.     

SUNDAY 3/21: …Rain and thunderstorms will likely move into Tri-Cities and a Roanoke areas overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning… then spread rapidly  across the rest of the state during Sunday morning. The rain could be heavy at times and it will be embedded thunderstorms as well across many areas. This will be the first truly Spring weather system. If this event were to occur at a different time during the day… the potential would exist for significant early-season severe weather event across South Piedmont North Piedmont Roanoke Shenandoah interior Southeast and the Richmond areas. But right now the model data shows the system coming in early Sunday morning and Midday.     

The rain and thunderstorms will be ending across western Virginia by Sunday afternoon — 11am -2pm — and end  over central and eastern Virginia before Sunset.     

WEEKEND 2– MARCH 26-27-28     

The weekend also looks like a pretty mild weekend as well.    There is certainly no signs of any sustained cold air coming in despite what you may have heard on over at the AccuWeather websites.      The Polar Vortex is situated far to the north over Baffin Island… and the Pacific jet appears to be slamming into the West Coast.   The EPO is negative on the 12z Sunday 3/14 run of GFS and European ensembles.    Those two features mean that there is probably not going to be a Ridge over the West Coast.    In fact there is some support for the idea of some sort of ridging off the East Coast.   Thus temperatures for the weekend looks to be pretty mild and the weekend at this point does NOT offer any significant rain.        It is of course too early to say that all three days will be 100% dry… but right now none of the model data is showing any sort of significant shower thunderstorm activity across any portion of the Commonwealth and the   overall   synoptic pattern  does not support that  either.