Is this a teaser, or a prospective storm in the making? I know this is your life work and money maker, but how can a lowly non meterologist read your maps? I am very interested in weather, clouds in particular. Thank you for helping my family be prepared for the last 2 storms…..we are all safe and no chance of getting cold or hungry….thank you.
Thanks for the accurate forcasts for the last 2 storms. As a volunteer firefighter and WRVA listerner, I need to be informed as early as possible to get prepared for the storms. Waiting axiously for the next mess upcoming.
Your accuracy has been uncanny. You are 2 for 2 this winter. You were predicting 10+ inches in this area a week ahead, and the local “experts” on TV were saying 3+ inches. You are the man, and I’m sticking with you to get me through this mess of a winter! Thanks for your hard work!
Awesome predictions. I follow you over the other so called meteorologist who hate to be wrong or say 8″ when it is really 18″ at least in the Glen Allen area for the second snowstorm. You are on the money. Very interested in the next map!!!
I’ll be checking here before anywhere else! You were right on with your early predictions! Very interested to see what your next update for this upcoming weekend!
Comment by Brandon Johnson — February 2, 2010 @ 7:12 AM
Lets get this new update in so richmond can see the rain
You da man!!!!!!!!!! I am in the transportation industry and your dependable and accurate forecasts have helped tremendously in planning my operations the last two storms. Thank you for having enough confidence to tell it like you see it.Unlike most of the meteorologist in the Richmond Metro area.
Comment by Mikki Jung — February 2, 2010 @ 9:07 AM
I have been telling my friends and co-workers about your site after listening to you on WRVA. Keep up the good work!
Great forecasting, and I enjoy listening to you on WRVA. You are my main source for anything related to snow in RVA. Living in Mechanincsville it’s great to have someone to turn to instead of our local mets. Do you see any model shifting like the GFS has done this year and more cold air comes in with the northern high? Thanks.
When I hear snow in the forecast there is only one person’s forecast I really want to hear and that’s yours! I have been following your forecasts for about six years and you are most always right on the mark! Thanks for your hard work.
Thanks so much for your work. You put these amaturish meteorologists on the local stations to shame. One thing I notice is that your updates seem to lag in time. When you post “5:00 am update”, it won’t show up until the afternoon. Is this a server error? Thanks again for your great work!
Wonder if “Jim” is Jim Duncan from you no where? Keep up the good work.
Comment by Mark Miller — February 4, 2010 @ 4:27 AM
I’m in the delivery business to grocery and convenience stores in central richmond. Should I double up on friday and forego Saturday. How will monday be?
Love your site! Thanks for the detailed information of why the models are tending colder. Accuweather Bloggers like Henry Margusity, Elliot Abrams ,and Frank Strait should seek a peak at your site! Keep up the great work!
Before I became aware of you via WRVA, I was resigned (or brainwashed) to expect that local winter storm forecasting in the Richmond area would always suck because this was a geographically “difficult” area to predict for. Now I know that the problem was more with the ineptness of the TV and NWS meteorologists (but just to be fair, you seem to be better than most of the national level guys as well). You’re consistently and confidently nailing forecasts days away from arrival of storms while these other guys are still floundering around one day before. Anyway, thanks for the great work. The TV and NWS guys need to step up their game about a hundred notches to catch up to you. They’re history as far as I’m concerned. I’ve tuned them out.
I listen to Jim Duncan, then i listen to you. I can’t wait to see who is correct this weekend. I am not going by Jim’s forcast today or Friday, i am going by what he said vs what you say as of Monday. Jim Monday was saying more rain that anything. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS!!! Keep up the good work.
Yeah Dave, I second comment #35…what does the eastern VA update mean for the Tri-Cities? Tell me Petersburg doesn’t get a piddly 2 in. of snow washed away by rain while the spoiled Midlothian and West End people brag about another foot of snow, please!
Dave,
Great work. I know most of your feedback is positive, but I have to say the people that nitpick about proofreading or complain about your content have no idea what you are trying to do. Please do NOT waste time with extra proofreading if it means delaying your next update. Keep up the great stuff. We are lucky to have someone like you local.
I don’t want to get too technical or talk over everyone’s head but I think I can say with some certainty that tomorrow’s is going to suck with sublime suckiness.
Its great how you explain why you forecast what you forecast. Very detailed unlike most meterologist in this area(which are usually wrong).Keep up the excellent work and keep the detailed forecast coming.Thanks Thanks Thanks
Your View of the weather takes the best of tech and the best of a little commonsense and your life experience to come out with a BOLD FORECAST. Contrary to the INTOWN METEROLOGIST Boys. Ihave followed the weather as an amateur for 50 Years,and I think that this storm will be the best to see Who is Right how this all comes out. My guess after reviewing 3 Days of data and the latest Models. I just dont see very much Rain. Sleet yes for several hours and back to snow. My feeling is 5to 8 Inches Richmond West and North including Short Pump Midlothian Powhatan Amelia and then Phase 2 Will Be easily 4 to 8 with Blowing Snow Gusts to 30MPH and some Drifting.Totals for the Storm 6 to 16 Inches with the Higher totals in the Metro area West and North. Thanks for giving a great analysis of your thinking.
The site says that the 4:00pm update has been posted but when I click, the most recent update is from this morning. I have recently discovered the site, which is fantastic byt he way, am I missing a link?
Just looking at some dewpoints and temperatures at 10:15 PM. Dew points and temperatures courtesy of NWS. Maidens, VA (Goochland County) 33 degrees with a 25 dewpoint. Hanover Airport the same readings. If I understand this correctly, 33+25=58 divided by 2 equals 29. That means all snow at least at this time unless warm air pushes in. This website is the best, never again will I watch channels 6, 8 or 12!
Not trying to step on anyones toes but wont that high over eastern Va that’s drifting SE ward have an effect on the track of the low. Looks to me that it is pulling the low more northward already. Your dewpoint analisis has made me pay attention and it seems like they have rebounded. Specifically, Petersburg is back up to 30.
looks like the only thing the local broadcasters and the weather channel do better than this site is bring a forecast on time-if you SAY you’re going to have an update at 3pm, get it out there sometime before 4:30…
Dave, just found out about you from the guys at wakefield, said you had nailed the last 2 storms, you go !!! love your detailed and very well explained analysis. you are booked marked on my computer.
Your site says there is a 6:30 update but I can’t find it. Am I missing something?
Comment by L.A. McCormick — February 5, 2010 @ 7:52 AM
HEADS UP>>> It says that the updated forecast for today (Friday Feb 5th) has been posted but when I click the link it’s not there! It’s still showing yesterday’s late afternoon posting! I really want to see the updated one for this morning!
Looks like the local forecast was more accurate than expected. It is going to rain in south Richmond and chesterfield after all. Such strong words were used to describe the NWS prediction of warm temps leading to some rain. It appears your excitement over a third major storm lead to lofty forecasts. I understand what your models say, but you must leave room for that margin of error when you are tinkering on the line between freezing and above freezing temperatures.
Looking like a bit of a “swing and a miss” on today’s forecast by everyone. The dry slot seems to be occurring more rapidly than predicted. I wonder if we’ll get any precipitation before tonight. Hoping the data track for tomorrow materializes. County schools are going to take it on the chin if we get nothing today.
It is now snowing heavily in Midlothian. To the poster about the dewpoint rising last night. There was moisture moving into the area last night so the air moisture level was rising so the dewpoint would rise.
The weather is very hard to predict. An easy prediction would be to say that jerks would start coming on this site posting rude comments. Why the need to start dumping on someone who is doing what they enjoy and helping the community by trying to predict the weather???
I wouldn’t call this a complete “miss”. We’re getting a lot of snow in downtown Richmond right now. Come on everyone! This is weather forecasting, it can shift at any moment, and I still think he did a better job than Jim Duncan, who was calling this all rain as of a few days ago! And before you harp too hard on WXRisk being off a bit for this one, remember he was dead on for the last two while the local stations were full of it. I personally am glad to have found someone who’s not afraid to tell it like they see it!
Not sure where you are Rich, but it’s been snowing here in downtown Richmond since 8am and it is sticking. And Robert, Jim Duncan is awful, no matter how you look at it. He’s the only one in Richmond that has been totally off (embarassingly so)- I’ve stopped checking the weather on nbc12.com.
CLEARLY I was wrong. I repent in dust and ashes. FTR, to all faithful wxrisk readers, my post was heavily TIC. Thought that was obvious. At least I didn’t give props to J.D. I’m a devoted fan and promise to add (:o)’s to future TIC posts. You still the man, Dave.
Looks like Robert(2/510 9:10AM) & Jim Duncan are WRONG! Dave hit it dead on with his dewpoint predictions…current temp & dewpoint @ 30. Excellence in forecasting once again Dave!!!!
The Richmond forcast from Robert, current temp 32. Todays forcast is snow mixed w/ sleet or freezin rain. High of today will be 34 degrees. Tonight it will continue to snow w/ the low of 32. Saturday we will reach a high of 32 degrees with a low of 18. So, here is my thoughts. It has been too wet and too warm the past couple of days for anything to stick. If the snow continues through saturday night, we might see a couple of inches int he Richmond area. Other than that, no need to run to the store. We well be okay..
Comment by Dale Mays — February 5, 2010 @ 12:34 PM
I do enjoy this website. I do wish if the update is supposed to be at 2:00, it would be there. Other than that, I really enjoy it.
Thank you so much for this site and for your incredibly detailed and accurate weather forecasting. You were right on the money last weekend when you predicted a foot of snow, and TWC was still saying 3-6 inches! I am diabetic and my mother is a transplant patient. Because I listened to your advice and urged her to do the same, we were both prepared with food, medicine and other supplies for the last two storms, and we are for this one too. Thank you for the excellent service you provide. I no longer believe anything the NWS or local television stations say. Wish I’d heard about you a long time ago!
Comment by Robert Iza Douchebag — February 5, 2010 @ 2:13 PM
spike & Robert: You are a couple of morons that belong at your local grocery store bagging groceries or at Burger King mopping the floors. That is all.
What is the Tuesday storm suppose to bring, if anything? The weather channel seems to be showing a storm for Tuesday and then another one for next weekend. Thoughts?? The high school guidance crew needs to know
Robert clearly you must live under a waterfall… I have not seen anything but SNOW all day… so more rain than snow isnt correct. Maybe you showed stop using this site if you are so against it, and go back and check what the “Weather Men” said, earlier they said rain, rain, rain… ummm I see snow like I said… so they were wrong from the beginning.. This is by far the most accurate acount of what is going on and he has hit the “nail” on the head with each of the past two storms, while TV has been off substantially… Have a good day… Tired of ranting to someone who probably has no common sense anyways!!!
All props to you and your BOLD, EARLY prognostications! I have been an amateur weather geek since my Childhood (50+ years ago). I have never seen anyone nail Ricmond Snowstorms this far in advance! Many
of us can Nowcast…..But nailing it 5 days out???? That’s crazy good!
And to do this solo in your slippers just blows me away……..
By the way…..3″ of new snow at 2:45PM in Bon Air……
Lastly…Ths for all the Cool discussion of the variables…….
Hey Robert! Whays up? Did you get up on the wrong side of bed? Dave is using alot of science and trend analysis in his forcast as opposed to folks like J. Duncan who read the teleprompt (spelling?) Robert look out your window and review the conditions. Though they may change…thinks are starting to look really white out there! Folks get off the roads before it gets worse out there! Please!!!
Comment by Allen Sisson — February 5, 2010 @ 3:14 PM
We just changed over to sleet in Chesterfield at 3:11 pm
A guy in his basement repeatedly outdoes the guy in the palace with all of the electronics, people and space! Great work Dave. What an expose of the NWS. Nice job, Dave.
I’m in Short Pump and we have about 3 3/8 inches accumulation. The snow is pretty wet and coming down steady right now. No sleet or rain yet. The ground must still be a little above freezing cause the snow is melting from underneath. This is going to be a real mess after it freezes tomorrow hard.
It is going to be interested in how much snow DC gets. I’m reading reports as high as 30 inches.
David you nailed the significance of this one pretty early. Thanks for your forecasts for the VA area. We do appreciate it much!!!
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow….
Thanks but the truth is I did Get SOME of this event wrong — I underdid the warm air and the track of the 850 Low — DT
Spike, cut the guy some slack, he’s obviously been a bit busy. Did you ever think that maybe he gets updated info at those times and has to take the time to translate into laymen’s terms??
Rich, Glad to see you step up and take it on the chin.
mann crazy storm so far! snow and sleet here in hanover and about 4 inches of accumulation so far. also Robert you are a dbag. wxrisk has had the most accurate forecasts all winter. keep your negative comments to yourself.
Flurries in Fredericksburg started around 11:00 with steady snow moving in around 12:30 until 2:30, but there was no accumulation. At 3:00 the temperature started to drop from 35.2 to 32.7 and the snow started to accumulate. It is now covering roads and sticking to everything. I also noticed the slush from the afternoon is now freezing up.
409 PM heavy snow to sleet in aylett 1.5″ total accumulation
Comment by Mike in Beaverdam — February 5, 2010 @ 4:13 PM
I’m up in Beaverdam and it’s been snowing here since about 8:30 am. It took quite a while before it started sticking. Believe it was because it was above freezing for most of the morning. As of 4:00 pm we have about 4 1/2 inches and it is snowing very heavily. Winds are starting to pick up as well. No sleet at all.
This guy is always right! Our whole office , friends and family only believe this site when it comes to weather. I know dozen of people rely on David when it comes to Richmond weather. Thanks !
It looks like the storm is going more northward. Which if I’m reading this right means more warm air and less snow for the Richmond tri city area. Any comments ?
yes the Low especially the 850 Low ..is tracking further North thru southeast VA overnight… further N than I thought Thursday Morning DT
Comment by BURKE, RICHMOND,VA — February 5, 2010 @ 5:15 PM
Dave,
Thank you for the access to your web site and the info you provide.
It is very interesting and informative to read your take on the weather.
To the Knotheads that are whining about the schedule: Subscribe to David’s service and then you can complain. He is giving this information to you for FREE!
Changed to sleet around 3:10 and rain with a little sleet around 4pm in midlothian just SW of the city of richmond. Has been mostly rain since then. you can see on the radar where a dome of warm air headed up to richmond and stopped around the city or slightly north. areas just to the east and west still show snow….wonder when the cold air will win back over…
Sorry to hear about the ban from the blog. I wouldn’t worry about it. There are obviously a few guys over there who bring something to the table. But the rest of the bunch is what makes that site suck. I will not visit there anymore for that reason alone. I look forward to hearing your opinions throughout the year regarding the weather forecasts. Take care.
Seems like the low over Tennessee is the more dominant one at 1945 hours this evening and thats why the warm air has come up the eastern seaboard. No one mentioned anything about this storm being a double barrelled low pressure system. We wont have a shot at anymore wintry precip in the metro-rich area until the coastal low becomes the dominant low.
Hey Robert, go get a website and post your forecast. That way we can all crucify you when you are wrong. Lowlife…
BOB what Idiots like Robert dont get is that in order to declare a forecast a “Bust” one has to actually gert into the forecast period.
Robert delared a Busted forecast before the snow Began. DT
I like your site and am impressed by your accuracy. Your writing, however, contains so many errors of grammar, punctuation, and word usage that it undermines effectiveness of your communication. Please consider taking the extra few minutes to proofread your reports before posting them, or perhaps ask someone else to proofread them for you. It’s a shame to invest so much time in research and then undercut the quality of your work by sloppy presentation. All best, John.
Dave you are the man. Don’t let a few pukes get to you. Keep up the good work and I will be looking forward to your predictons for Tues/Wed and next weekend. Stay safe everyone!
Comment by ES_Addict — February 5, 2010 @ 11:16 PM
Williamsburg WX – Light to moderate wet snow with about 1/2″-1″ accum. early-mid afternoon on Friday before turning to sleet then rain event after 1700. Temps were around 32-34 during afternoon period. Has continued raining thru 2300 with temps fairly steady in the 35-38 degree range since the afternoon. Winds began around 1800-1900 with gusts in 25-30 mph range since approx 1930. As of 2300 Friday night, 0.48″ precip. recorded.
Dave, you gotta be a trader. “Trend is your Friend” comment was a tip off for me. Just like trading, trying to determine the track and impact of a storm is similar to determining the intraday market tendencies and momentum shifts. We take our best shot, sometimes we are right, sometimes wrong and adjust our opinion when needed.
Learned about you back in December and following you ever since. Turned a few of my friends on to you. Love your educational wx commentary. Keep up the great work!
Hey… I’ve looked forward to every post and I’ve learned a great deal! So, what happens with this monster storm in the N. Atlantic? Also, when will we hear about what’s next in this pipeline. God, is this going to ruin my 3 day weekend? Thanks for your work!
In shortpump last night we got a dusting of sleet and snow after the rain. The surface seems to just now be starting to freeze up.
Dave thanks for your work and making it available to us. I really appreciate the honest analysis of what you got right and wrong. And thanks for the technical details. We can all learn something along with the forecasts.
Rewind to Thursday afternoon when the Richmond dewpoint dropped to 19 F.
I was concerned that the Thursday late cloud cover would keep the starting temp of the event too high. If we had had a couple of hours of clear skys Thursday evening with radiational cooling so that the overnite temps had gotten down to say 30 F, might the Richmond rea have ended up with an Ice storm?
I maxed at at 33.9 F in Bon Air after it started snowing at 32.7 F Friday morning. A couple of degrees colder starting could have made a huge
diffrence. Or would the warm air push won out anyway?
Would appreciate your thoughts…..
And ths again for this site!
As far as being banned from the chat room……we have a new Chat room….right here!……and you get to block any troublemakers!
good morning dave…i wouldn’t worry about being banned from the wtvr chat room; remember, it’s wtvrm for crying out loud; i doubt anyone pays any attention to them anyway. i’ve yet to see their people commit meteorology-
wric and wwbt at least try to get it right. over the past 20 years i’ve learned that jim duncan and john bernier are head and shoulders above anyone they’ve had at wtvr-and you’ve shown yourself to be a significant cut above them
OH MY GOD!!! Do you mean to tell me that there is actually a meteorologist that will actually admit if they got something wrong? You, my friend, have just won my heart and soul (and future readership) forever!
Love what you are doing Dave and my whole family and everyone at work watches this website. We all say, “what’s OUR guy saying” before we listen to anyone else.
To those who want to criticize without being constructive, here are some tips!
1. GET YOUR OWN WEBSITE AND DO IT YOURSELF. It’s really easy to create a website and make sure that you have spell check. Lord forbid you type so fast that you forget to go back and correct your typing. Not to mention the pressure your followers will put on you and your need to post quickly because everyone is waiting to hear what you will say. And, of course if you are RIGHT the majority of the time, you’ll get hammered with requests to post an update. That is, of course, if you are as good as Dave is.
2. If you come here just to complain that Dave is wrong, don’t come to his website. It’s really simple – just tune into your very reliable local weather channels who get it right 100% of the time – mostly because they are standing outside with the precip hitting them on the head. Cool – let’s stand outside and give a shot of it snowing and say “It’s going to snow today!” Thanks, I see the same thing you do.
Dave, thanks for updating with what you did incorrectly and what you did right. There’s an old saying that goes like this – Admit your mistakes before someone exaggerates them. Looks like you get it. And, for those of us that love what you are doing and trust you fully, we’ll continue to come to your site. Keep up the excellent work. Criticism comes with perfection.
Dave, there’s an old saying “Show me someone who is not making any mistakes and I’ll show you someone who is not doing anything!” Don’t sweat this storm, this one was a bear to forecast. I got concerned on Wed. when the local metereologists and weather forums-for our area-were all over the place with the snow totals.
Snowing fairly hard now in Short Pump, so who knows, we may get enough to enjoy this storm after all.
One word of advice, state your opinion and forget about what everyone else is thinking. This is your site and I come here for your opinion.
Thanks for your website DT, I enjoy it. I’ve posted one time under John and now I see another John being negative toward the forecast. I’m the John who ask about the storm tracking north to whom you responded. I guess I need another posting name.
I found the comments about being banned from the chat room hillarious….I wouldn’t worry too much about them.
I enjoy checking on your updates and have referred many of our friends to your site. I appreciate the fact you admit when and WHY you were wrong. Being wrong happens sometimes in your line of of work…don’t worry about it. Your track record more than makes up for the few times you have missed it.
Keep up the great work!
Comment by ES_Addict — February 6, 2010 @ 10:34 AM
Williamsburg WX – Got about 1″ total rain fall from this event so far with 1/2″ of it falling overnight. Temps held between 37-41 degrees overnight and currently are dropping thru 35 degrees. Beginning to snow now and sticking on non-pavement surfaces. My wife wants to take a drive to RIC and visit Whole Foods in Short Pump. How’s the roads up there? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller, Bueller…
DT, Looking forward to the next event play-by-play. Keep up the great and interesting wx insights. You da man!
I live in short pump a few miles form whole foods. I haven’t ventured out but my sidewalk has started to freeze hard. So areas that were wet are going to be ice soon. Be careful.
Snow started here several hours ago (Brandermill- just SW of richmond in 23112 zip) We now have a fresh inch and a half of snow on top of the slushy accumulations from yesterday. Still snowing lightly with a lot of wrap around showing on the radar. Looks like it will be close whether a few of the bands of decent snow make it here or stay just north of us….
Comment by ES_Addict — February 6, 2010 @ 11:23 AM
I’ve been following you since the storm last weekend and found your insight very helpful and interesting. I was very aggravated when you got banned from WTVR. Is there any other weather forum that you chat on? I will continue to check your website but I like watching you interact with other people in a chat room. Thanks for what you do!
OK… As Dave’s “web guy”… I have been very happy to see his site take off… especially given the lastest round of “events”. In light of Dave getting “banned” from the WTVR chatroom..and since I was snowed in anyways this morning.. I decided to give Dave a little gift and launch a chatroom of his own at http://www.wxrisk.com/chat . It is still in the development stages.. but is currently functional. Suggestions and Feedback on the chatroom can be emailed to me at admin@keywebconcepts.com. Happy Chatting.
Its snow pretty good in Short Pump. Just cleaned the cars and when I was done there was already a 1/2 inch where I had just been. Still a little slushy under the snow on the driveway but the current snow is very dry and fluffy.
I trust your forecasting more than any other! You tell it like you see it and I learn soooo much more about the weather with your forecasts! Everybody was calling for this to start as rain and you shot them down! You were 100 percent correct in that matter. I guess cbs 6 does not like having competition on their site. Keep up the great work and I look forward to your forecasts in the future!
Pretty wild to see the storm falling almost due south from NOVA now on the NWS radar. Dave said the models showed this but it was almost unbelievable that it would actually do it. I was a confirmed doubter until I saw it with my own eyes. Looks like a little more snow in Ric if it continues to move south before it pulls east. Good on ya Dave.
I heard about your website on WRVA 1140 last week and am impressed by your methodology and subsequent accuracy. Still snowing in Midlothian (Powderham)
Hey!!! I’ve just been turned on to this site several weeks ago. It is the best weather site I’ve seen. Your predictions are better than the local guys. I live in southside VA. in Clarksville and I’ve been telling all my friends about the site. I’ve been working part time with VDOT and the long range forcast has help me plan my work schedule. Thanks again.
Comment by Mark Starkey — February 6, 2010 @ 3:23 PM
It is 3:15 pm on Saturday , Feburary 6th. I live in Reeds Hill subdivision and we have 5-6 inches of snow since about 7am this morning.As far as I am concerned Dave you have it right again. Our 2 day total is right at 9 inches. Who said you have to perfect? No one else is even close. The Weather Channel said we would have 1/2 inch today, then after we had about 3 inches they changed the forecast to 1 inch.
How often will we get updates for the next two possible events? I’ve really enjoyed your frankness with your predictions over these last two events! Thanks!
Dave — I work for VDOT and just want to say THANKS!!!
Live about one mile East of the I-95 Atlee/Elmont exit and had about 3.5 inches of snow & sleet yesterday before it turned to sleet & rain and then compressed to about 2 inches of slush.
Has been snowing all day today; shoveled about 2 inches of fairly wet & heavy snow from our walks about midday, and just shoveled about 4 inches of light and fluffy snow from the same areas about 15 minutes ago. Still coming down impressively and is still the light & fluffy variety.
Total frozen precip for Friday & Sat… about 9.5 inches here, so far.
So interesting to watch the system sag down towards us from DC, just like you said it could.
Just wanted to say thank you. I enjoy reading your explanations of the weather models and have showed several friends your site. Am learning a lot about weather forecasting from you.
Who cares if you got some of the forecast wrong…you were still MUCH closer than any other forecast I heard, and what’s especially amazing is how far OUT from the event you manage to call it. When everyone else was saying this was just going to be rain for the Richmond area, you sounded the alarm that….hello….maybe it’s NOT going to just be rain. Thanks to you I made my Ukrops run on Wednesday and didn’t have to get caught with the flunkies that waited until Friday because they thought we were only getting rain…LOL. You are the MAN ! How the heck do you do it anyway ??? And why aren’t “YOU” the National Weather Service ? Keep up the good work !
I read where you explained what you got wrong on your forecast, and it really wasn’t that bad all things considered. I’m going to be spending a good part of today shoveling the results of Jim Duncan’s “mostly rain event” off of my driveway. It’s funny, I never heard him say that he got any part of his forecast wrong. In fact, the co-anchor made a big deal of praising the station’s meteorologists for their early call of the storm. Never mind that their characterization of it was 180 degrees out of phase with reality. I understand that meteorology presents challenges unlike those in most jobs, but I’m just sick of the TV (and the weather-lite Weather Channel guys on the radio) continually feeding us a constant stream of mediocrity and then putting a positive spin on it. Aren’t we already subjected to enough of that from our politicians?
WOW, you are the best! I have just been introduced to your site as of Thursday of this past week. You were right on the money with our weather in Mineral VA. We have a mess of snow and ice but we were at least ready thanks to your forcast. I am telling everyone about you……keep it up.
I love this website! Looking forward to the changes you mentioned where there will be regular updates. You are very very good!!!!!! Good luck to you this week.
Thank you very much for sharing your passion for forecasting. We here in VA will be bookmarking your site and checking in often.
Comment by Holly DiFiglio — February 7, 2010 @ 2:39 PM
I am excited about the changes you discussed. Can you add the definitions of some of the basic terms you are using? I’m getting dizzy reading your log and flipping to another couple of web pages so I can try to understand your excellent info. Thanks!
Not sure exactly what you meant by “so if any of you loyal readers are interested in getting a TAG of LOGO link for this new web opage… better let me know soon.” but please do make sure we have a way to keep seeing your forecasts and outlooks. You do a great job of taking what is an extremely complicated process of forecasting and breaking it down so that a layman can understand it. My dad was a meteorologist for USAF from the mid ’50s to the early 70′s and said that Virginia and Richmond in particular was one of the most difficult places to forecast for especially in winter since the rain/snow line inevitably seems to fall within 25 miles or so no matter which way the storms come from. I am impressed that Dave is willing to state his forecast/outlooks well in advance(while letting us know what can change) instead of waiting ’til the day before or day of the storm to give totals. Also that he came back the next day and explained what he got right AND wrong. Please keep up the great work and thanks.
Comment by Celie Dean — February 8, 2010 @ 7:19 AM
I have confidence in your ability to forecast the weather! I hope we’ll be able to continue to view your blog and your website! Your information on this last storm was excellent!
Dave, I have been following your predictions for about a month. You are the greatest! We are not here for a grammar lesson, only the weather. Keep up your free and good work. No need to listen to other weatherpeople ten times a day who are usually aftraid to hedge on upcoming weather events. Thanks!
I hope so… I like all this snow, remind me of when I was little and we used to get big snow here in VA.
Is this a teaser, or a prospective storm in the making? I know this is your life work and money maker, but how can a lowly non meterologist read your maps? I am very interested in weather, clouds in particular. Thank you for helping my family be prepared for the last 2 storms…..we are all safe and no chance of getting cold or hungry….thank you.
Thanks for the accurate forcasts for the last 2 storms. As a volunteer firefighter and WRVA listerner, I need to be informed as early as possible to get prepared for the storms. Waiting axiously for the next mess upcoming.
That’s not a very exact forcast. You’ve got everyone in richmond listening, so lets see what you’ve got.
Your accuracy has been uncanny. You are 2 for 2 this winter. You were predicting 10+ inches in this area a week ahead, and the local “experts” on TV were saying 3+ inches. You are the man, and I’m sticking with you to get me through this mess of a winter! Thanks for your hard work!
Awesome predictions. I follow you over the other so called meteorologist who hate to be wrong or say 8″ when it is really 18″ at least in the Glen Allen area for the second snowstorm. You are on the money. Very interested in the next map!!!
Awesome predictions. What are we expected to see today? Groundhog day of all days.
I’ll be checking here before anywhere else! You were right on with your early predictions! Very interested to see what your next update for this upcoming weekend!
Lets get this new update in so richmond can see the rain
You da man!!!!!!!!!! I am in the transportation industry and your dependable and accurate forecasts have helped tremendously in planning my operations the last two storms. Thank you for having enough confidence to tell it like you see it.Unlike most of the meteorologist in the Richmond Metro area.
I have been telling my friends and co-workers about your site after listening to you on WRVA. Keep up the good work!
I can’t seem to see the update from 9am this morning? Can someone help me out.
Thanks so much for your accurate forecasting!
I don’t see your 9am update
I love how well you explain why you’re making certain forecasts and why sometimes you have to be vague or “iffy” about a storm’s outcome.
I had never heard of this place before and now it’s bookmarked!
GREAT WORK!
Great forecasting, and I enjoy listening to you on WRVA. You are my main source for anything related to snow in RVA. Living in Mechanincsville it’s great to have someone to turn to instead of our local mets. Do you see any model shifting like the GFS has done this year and more cold air comes in with the northern high? Thanks.
When I hear snow in the forecast there is only one person’s forecast I really want to hear and that’s yours! I have been following your forecasts for about six years and you are most always right on the mark! Thanks for your hard work.
Thanks so much for your work. You put these amaturish meteorologists on the local stations to shame. One thing I notice is that your updates seem to lag in time. When you post “5:00 am update”, it won’t show up until the afternoon. Is this a server error? Thanks again for your great work!
Thanks Dave! Keep the updates coming. I am fascinated by your accuracy. Tuesday’s GFS looks interesting.
Where is the update for 2 pm?
I’m amazed by your accuracy! Keep up the good work!
where is the 2 pm update? ive been dyin to see it and been checkin back every 15 mins
wondering if changes in models after 2pm releases?
Thanks for these updates. While I don’t relish more snow I do appreciate an accurate prediction. You rock….
Thanks so much for your accurate predictions. I just don’t trust TWC or local news anymore. Keep up the good work!’
TWC– the weather channel the suck. I mean they really suck … Moose Balls .
A lot….. DT .
Great work!! I wait patiently for 85 degrees!
A friend recommended your site… YOU are now my weatherman! Appreciate your work! Will look forward to tomorrow’s update! Thanks!
I’ve been enjoying your forecasts but for the love of God proofread what you write!
Wonder if “Jim” is Jim Duncan from you no where? Keep up the good work.
I’m in the delivery business to grocery and convenience stores in central richmond. Should I double up on friday and forego Saturday. How will monday be?
NBC12 now seems to have adopted your forecast on Thursday am. Thanks again for your great work.
The truth is Mr Freidan and Mr Duncan are very good Mets and they see the data I am seeing… thats all —DT
Great work! I now do not have to watch the local stations, which generate 4 different forecasts for each event.
Hey Dave:
Love your site! Thanks for the detailed information of why the models are tending colder. Accuweather Bloggers like Henry Margusity, Elliot Abrams ,and Frank Strait should seek a peak at your site! Keep up the great work!
watch out for tuesday
So what does this mean for the tri-cities?
Can you predict when the next dry weather period will be? If my husband doesn’t get out of the house soon I’m going to go nuts!
Thanks for predicting snow before it comes and not while it is snowing.
Yeah that kind of thing pisses me off as well… LOL…. DT
Before I became aware of you via WRVA, I was resigned (or brainwashed) to expect that local winter storm forecasting in the Richmond area would always suck because this was a geographically “difficult” area to predict for. Now I know that the problem was more with the ineptness of the TV and NWS meteorologists (but just to be fair, you seem to be better than most of the national level guys as well). You’re consistently and confidently nailing forecasts days away from arrival of storms while these other guys are still floundering around one day before. Anyway, thanks for the great work. The TV and NWS guys need to step up their game about a hundred notches to catch up to you. They’re history as far as I’m concerned. I’ve tuned them out.
Thank you for the kinds words… DT
I listen to Jim Duncan, then i listen to you. I can’t wait to see who is correct this weekend. I am not going by Jim’s forcast today or Friday, i am going by what he said vs what you say as of Monday. Jim Monday was saying more rain that anything. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS!!! Keep up the good work.
would love to see another update this evening. as a newspaper carrier your forecast has been invaluable
Yeah Dave, I second comment #35…what does the eastern VA update mean for the Tri-Cities? Tell me Petersburg doesn’t get a piddly 2 in. of snow washed away by rain while the spoiled Midlothian and West End people brag about another foot of snow, please!
Dave,
Great work. I know most of your feedback is positive, but I have to say the people that nitpick about proofreading or complain about your content have no idea what you are trying to do. Please do NOT waste time with extra proofreading if it means delaying your next update. Keep up the great stuff. We are lucky to have someone like you local.
I don’t want to get too technical or talk over everyone’s head but I think I can say with some certainty that tomorrow’s is going to suck with sublime suckiness.
Yuppers …. DT
I’m going into withdrawal. Where’s the 3:00 update. I gotts ta know (Dirty Harry style).
awesome forcasting Im also carrier really could use updated forcast for tri-city area. Again GREAT JOB
I don’t know how you do what you do, but I love it.
BRAVO ZULU!!!!!!!!!
Can’t wait to see your update for this evening!!
what happened to the 3pm update
I live in Chesterfield and the dew point has been going up over the last few hrs. Up to 28 degrees
Its great how you explain why you forecast what you forecast. Very detailed unlike most meterologist in this area(which are usually wrong).Keep up the excellent work and keep the detailed forecast coming.Thanks Thanks Thanks
Your View of the weather takes the best of tech and the best of a little commonsense and your life experience to come out with a BOLD FORECAST. Contrary to the INTOWN METEROLOGIST Boys. Ihave followed the weather as an amateur for 50 Years,and I think that this storm will be the best to see Who is Right how this all comes out. My guess after reviewing 3 Days of data and the latest Models. I just dont see very much Rain. Sleet yes for several hours and back to snow. My feeling is 5to 8 Inches Richmond West and North including Short Pump Midlothian Powhatan Amelia and then Phase 2 Will Be easily 4 to 8 with Blowing Snow Gusts to 30MPH and some Drifting.Totals for the Storm 6 to 16 Inches with the Higher totals in the Metro area West and North. Thanks for giving a great analysis of your thinking.
The site says that the 4:00pm update has been posted but when I click, the most recent update is from this morning. I have recently discovered the site, which is fantastic byt he way, am I missing a link?
Thanks!
Tell 1140 WRVA we want you as a regular and a week end slot YEAR ROUND.
Still not clear to me what we should expect in the Petersburg area??? We appear to be right on that line again.
Just looking at some dewpoints and temperatures at 10:15 PM. Dew points and temperatures courtesy of NWS. Maidens, VA (Goochland County) 33 degrees with a 25 dewpoint. Hanover Airport the same readings. If I understand this correctly, 33+25=58 divided by 2 equals 29. That means all snow at least at this time unless warm air pushes in. This website is the best, never again will I watch channels 6, 8 or 12!
Thanks for all the hard work! You are head and shoulders above the local and national weather folks!!
Dave, you amaze me. You have Richmond transfixed, waiting for your next prediction. Keep up the great work!
Not trying to step on anyones toes but wont that high over eastern Va that’s drifting SE ward have an effect on the track of the low. Looks to me that it is pulling the low more northward already. Your dewpoint analisis has made me pay attention and it seems like they have rebounded. Specifically, Petersburg is back up to 30.
looks like the only thing the local broadcasters and the weather channel do better than this site is bring a forecast on time-if you SAY you’re going to have an update at 3pm, get it out there sometime before 4:30…
Dave, just found out about you from the guys at wakefield, said you had nailed the last 2 storms, you go !!! love your detailed and very well explained analysis. you are booked marked on my computer.
Is the update(2/5 6:30AM) out yet? It says it is on the top of the page, but I only see the 2/4 4PM update. Keep up the good work.
Where is the 6:30 am update?….it’s 7:20
Where is the 6:30 am update? The home page says it’s online, but when you click on “click here” it is not updated.
So it says the 2/5 update is online…I “Clicked Here” but all that shows is 4pm 2/4 update…help!
Where is the February 5th Update?
Your site says there is a 6:30 update but I can’t find it. Am I missing something?
HEADS UP>>> It says that the updated forecast for today (Friday Feb 5th) has been posted but when I click the link it’s not there! It’s still showing yesterday’s late afternoon posting! I really want to see the updated one for this morning!
I agree with Susan… Way to Go!!! Now that you have me hooked, how about the next forecast?? Please!!!!!!!!!
So basically you are incorrect. Jim Duncan said more rain than snow. You said no RAIN. GOOD TRY. I guess that’s why Jim is on TV and yo are not.
Looks like the local forecast was more accurate than expected. It is going to rain in south Richmond and chesterfield after all. Such strong words were used to describe the NWS prediction of warm temps leading to some rain. It appears your excitement over a third major storm lead to lofty forecasts. I understand what your models say, but you must leave room for that margin of error when you are tinkering on the line between freezing and above freezing temperatures.
Looking like a bit of a “swing and a miss” on today’s forecast by everyone. The dry slot seems to be occurring more rapidly than predicted. I wonder if we’ll get any precipitation before tonight. Hoping the data track for tomorrow materializes. County schools are going to take it on the chin if we get nothing today.
Ummm… City of Richmond – ALL SNOW!!!! Nice job Dave! So far you have nailed it again. Thanks for being a real weatherman.
It is now snowing heavily in Midlothian. To the poster about the dewpoint rising last night. There was moisture moving into the area last night so the air moisture level was rising so the dewpoint would rise.
The weather is very hard to predict. An easy prediction would be to say that jerks would start coming on this site posting rude comments. Why the need to start dumping on someone who is doing what they enjoy and helping the community by trying to predict the weather???
What are you talking about Rich and Robert? I live in the West End and it has been snowing (no rain) since 9:00 AM. Looks like he nailed it again.
I’m currently out by the airport and it have been snowing for the last hour.
Not here in Short Pump. It’s been snowing since 7:45 a.m.
I wouldn’t call this a complete “miss”. We’re getting a lot of snow in downtown Richmond right now. Come on everyone! This is weather forecasting, it can shift at any moment, and I still think he did a better job than Jim Duncan, who was calling this all rain as of a few days ago! And before you harp too hard on WXRisk being off a bit for this one, remember he was dead on for the last two while the local stations were full of it. I personally am glad to have found someone who’s not afraid to tell it like they see it!
Started snowing in King William at 1000. Temp is 36. Not sticking to anything but the snow already on the ground.
To Rich and Robert – Are you guys in Richmond, b/c it is snowing pretty hard downtown.
Not sure where you are Rich, but it’s been snowing here in downtown Richmond since 8am and it is sticking. And Robert, Jim Duncan is awful, no matter how you look at it. He’s the only one in Richmond that has been totally off (embarassingly so)- I’ve stopped checking the weather on nbc12.com.
CLEARLY I was wrong. I repent in dust and ashes. FTR, to all faithful wxrisk readers, my post was heavily TIC. Thought that was obvious. At least I didn’t give props to J.D. I’m a devoted fan and promise to add (:o)’s to future TIC posts. You still the man, Dave.
@63 & 64: Look outside! Its SNOWING!
The roads here are starting to get covered – parts are completely covered by new snow. Rich – my comment was not directed at you.
Looks like Robert(2/510 9:10AM) & Jim Duncan are WRONG! Dave hit it dead on with his dewpoint predictions…current temp & dewpoint @ 30. Excellence in forecasting once again Dave!!!!
The Richmond forcast from Robert, current temp 32. Todays forcast is snow mixed w/ sleet or freezin rain. High of today will be 34 degrees. Tonight it will continue to snow w/ the low of 32. Saturday we will reach a high of 32 degrees with a low of 18. So, here is my thoughts. It has been too wet and too warm the past couple of days for anything to stick. If the snow continues through saturday night, we might see a couple of inches int he Richmond area. Other than that, no need to run to the store. We well be okay..
I do enjoy this website. I do wish if the update is supposed to be at 2:00, it would be there. Other than that, I really enjoy it.
I think it is a little EARLY to pick any winners in the forecasting wars.
Thank you so much for this site and for your incredibly detailed and accurate weather forecasting. You were right on the money last weekend when you predicted a foot of snow, and TWC was still saying 3-6 inches! I am diabetic and my mother is a transplant patient. Because I listened to your advice and urged her to do the same, we were both prepared with food, medicine and other supplies for the last two storms, and we are for this one too. Thank you for the excellent service you provide. I no longer believe anything the NWS or local television stations say. Wish I’d heard about you a long time ago!
Robert….you, my friend, are a douchebag.
spike & Robert: You are a couple of morons that belong at your local grocery store bagging groceries or at Burger King mopping the floors. That is all.
Wrong robert. I live in chesterfield and we already have 2 inches and snowing hard. You need to keep your so called forecast to yourself
2 inches in Short Pump. It’s very wet, though, so I’m guessing the temperature must be right at freezing.
What is the Tuesday storm suppose to bring, if anything? The weather channel seems to be showing a storm for Tuesday and then another one for next weekend. Thoughts?? The high school guidance crew needs to know
Robert clearly you must live under a waterfall… I have not seen anything but SNOW all day… so more rain than snow isnt correct. Maybe you showed stop using this site if you are so against it, and go back and check what the “Weather Men” said, earlier they said rain, rain, rain… ummm I see snow like I said… so they were wrong from the beginning.. This is by far the most accurate acount of what is going on and he has hit the “nail” on the head with each of the past two storms, while TV has been off substantially… Have a good day… Tired of ranting to someone who probably has no common sense anyways!!!
Hey Dave:
All props to you and your BOLD, EARLY prognostications! I have been an amateur weather geek since my Childhood (50+ years ago). I have never seen anyone nail Ricmond Snowstorms this far in advance! Many
of us can Nowcast…..But nailing it 5 days out???? That’s crazy good!
And to do this solo in your slippers just blows me away……..
By the way…..3″ of new snow at 2:45PM in Bon Air……
Lastly…Ths for all the Cool discussion of the variables…….
So Robert, how do you like to eat crow…roasted or fried?
Started snowing here in Winchester, VA at 9:15am and is still steady at 3:00pm. Back yard registers 4.5 inches so far.
Live in powhatan little over 3 and snowing hard
Hey Robert! Whays up? Did you get up on the wrong side of bed? Dave is using alot of science and trend analysis in his forcast as opposed to folks like J. Duncan who read the teleprompt (spelling?) Robert look out your window and review the conditions. Though they may change…thinks are starting to look really white out there! Folks get off the roads before it gets worse out there! Please!!!
We just changed over to sleet in Chesterfield at 3:11 pm
A guy in his basement repeatedly outdoes the guy in the palace with all of the electronics, people and space! Great work Dave. What an expose of the NWS. Nice job, Dave.
I’m in Short Pump and we have about 3 3/8 inches accumulation. The snow is pretty wet and coming down steady right now. No sleet or rain yet. The ground must still be a little above freezing cause the snow is melting from underneath. This is going to be a real mess after it freezes tomorrow hard.
It is going to be interested in how much snow DC gets. I’m reading reports as high as 30 inches.
David you nailed the significance of this one pretty early. Thanks for your forecasts for the VA area. We do appreciate it much!!!
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow….
Thanks but the truth is I did Get SOME of this event wrong — I underdid the warm air and the track of the 850 Low — DT
Spike, cut the guy some slack, he’s obviously been a bit busy. Did you ever think that maybe he gets updated info at those times and has to take the time to translate into laymen’s terms??
Rich, Glad to see you step up and take it on the chin.
Short Pump now changing over to very light sleet. 3.5 inches so far.
mann crazy storm so far! snow and sleet here in hanover and about 4 inches of accumulation so far. also Robert you are a dbag. wxrisk has had the most accurate forecasts all winter. keep your negative comments to yourself.
Flurries in Fredericksburg started around 11:00 with steady snow moving in around 12:30 until 2:30, but there was no accumulation. At 3:00 the temperature started to drop from 35.2 to 32.7 and the snow started to accumulate. It is now covering roads and sticking to everything. I also noticed the slush from the afternoon is now freezing up.
Great updates! Thanks for all the hard work.
So anxious for an update!!!!
409 PM heavy snow to sleet in aylett 1.5″ total accumulation
I’m up in Beaverdam and it’s been snowing here since about 8:30 am. It took quite a while before it started sticking. Believe it was because it was above freezing for most of the morning. As of 4:00 pm we have about 4 1/2 inches and it is snowing very heavily. Winds are starting to pick up as well. No sleet at all.
Heavy sleet in the near westend of Henrico now.
Spike is right: where are the updates?? I can NOWCAST myself.
Thanks! I have been successfully staffing and preparing for the past 2 (now 3) storms. I am subcribed to your feed now as well. Keep it up!
This guy is always right! Our whole office , friends and family only believe this site when it comes to weather. I know dozen of people rely on David when it comes to Richmond weather. Thanks !
It looks like the storm is going more northward. Which if I’m reading this right means more warm air and less snow for the Richmond tri city area. Any comments ?
yes the Low especially the 850 Low ..is tracking further North thru southeast VA overnight… further N than I thought Thursday Morning DT
Dave,
Thank you for the access to your web site and the info you provide.
It is very interesting and informative to read your take on the weather.
To the Knotheads that are whining about the schedule: Subscribe to David’s service and then you can complain. He is giving this information to you for FREE!
Changed to sleet around 3:10 and rain with a little sleet around 4pm in midlothian just SW of the city of richmond. Has been mostly rain since then. you can see on the radar where a dome of warm air headed up to richmond and stopped around the city or slightly north. areas just to the east and west still show snow….wonder when the cold air will win back over…
GOOD report .. thanks. DT
Sorry to hear about the ban from the blog. I wouldn’t worry about it. There are obviously a few guys over there who bring something to the table. But the rest of the bunch is what makes that site suck. I will not visit there anymore for that reason alone. I look forward to hearing your opinions throughout the year regarding the weather forecasts. Take care.
boy dave you sure got this one wrong for the richmond area
How so?
No evening update for tomorrow’s expected snowfall?
Seems like the low over Tennessee is the more dominant one at 1945 hours this evening and thats why the warm air has come up the eastern seaboard. No one mentioned anything about this storm being a double barrelled low pressure system. We wont have a shot at anymore wintry precip in the metro-rich area until the coastal low becomes the dominant low.
Hey Robert, go get a website and post your forecast. That way we can all crucify you when you are wrong. Lowlife…
BOB what Idiots like Robert dont get is that in order to declare a forecast a “Bust” one has to actually gert into the forecast period.
Robert delared a Busted forecast before the snow Began. DT
Looks like the TV guys and the NWS folks got this one right. They were saying all week that it was going to be mostly a rain event — and it is.
hey stupid… 9 hours of snow then sleet is NOT all rain.
I like your site and am impressed by your accuracy. Your writing, however, contains so many errors of grammar, punctuation, and word usage that it undermines effectiveness of your communication. Please consider taking the extra few minutes to proofread your reports before posting them, or perhaps ask someone else to proofread them for you. It’s a shame to invest so much time in research and then undercut the quality of your work by sloppy presentation. All best, John.
Dave you are the man. Don’t let a few pukes get to you. Keep up the good work and I will be looking forward to your predictons for Tues/Wed and next weekend. Stay safe everyone!
Hey Tim, can you do better pal?
Williamsburg WX – Light to moderate wet snow with about 1/2″-1″ accum. early-mid afternoon on Friday before turning to sleet then rain event after 1700. Temps were around 32-34 during afternoon period. Has continued raining thru 2300 with temps fairly steady in the 35-38 degree range since the afternoon. Winds began around 1800-1900 with gusts in 25-30 mph range since approx 1930. As of 2300 Friday night, 0.48″ precip. recorded.
Dave, you gotta be a trader. “Trend is your Friend” comment was a tip off for me. Just like trading, trying to determine the track and impact of a storm is similar to determining the intraday market tendencies and momentum shifts. We take our best shot, sometimes we are right, sometimes wrong and adjust our opinion when needed.
Learned about you back in December and following you ever since. Turned a few of my friends on to you. Love your educational wx commentary. Keep up the great work!
Hey… I’ve looked forward to every post and I’ve learned a great deal! So, what happens with this monster storm in the N. Atlantic? Also, when will we hear about what’s next in this pipeline. God, is this going to ruin my 3 day weekend? Thanks for your work!
Snowing in Hanover on Atlee
In shortpump last night we got a dusting of sleet and snow after the rain. The surface seems to just now be starting to freeze up.
Dave thanks for your work and making it available to us. I really appreciate the honest analysis of what you got right and wrong. And thanks for the technical details. We can all learn something along with the forecasts.
Good Morning Dave…..
I have a question.
Rewind to Thursday afternoon when the Richmond dewpoint dropped to 19 F.
I was concerned that the Thursday late cloud cover would keep the starting temp of the event too high. If we had had a couple of hours of clear skys Thursday evening with radiational cooling so that the overnite temps had gotten down to say 30 F, might the Richmond rea have ended up with an Ice storm?
I maxed at at 33.9 F in Bon Air after it started snowing at 32.7 F Friday morning. A couple of degrees colder starting could have made a huge
diffrence. Or would the warm air push won out anyway?
Would appreciate your thoughts…..
And ths again for this site!
As far as being banned from the chat room……we have a new Chat room….right here!……and you get to block any troublemakers!
good morning dave…i wouldn’t worry about being banned from the wtvr chat room; remember, it’s wtvrm for crying out loud; i doubt anyone pays any attention to them anyway. i’ve yet to see their people commit meteorology-
wric and wwbt at least try to get it right. over the past 20 years i’ve learned that jim duncan and john bernier are head and shoulders above anyone they’ve had at wtvr-and you’ve shown yourself to be a significant cut above them
Where is a good weather blog, without all the bs, to learn and get commentary, explanations, charts on a reg basis.
OH MY GOD!!! Do you mean to tell me that there is actually a meteorologist that will actually admit if they got something wrong? You, my friend, have just won my heart and soul (and future readership) forever!
Love what you are doing Dave and my whole family and everyone at work watches this website. We all say, “what’s OUR guy saying” before we listen to anyone else.
To those who want to criticize without being constructive, here are some tips!
1. GET YOUR OWN WEBSITE AND DO IT YOURSELF. It’s really easy to create a website and make sure that you have spell check. Lord forbid you type so fast that you forget to go back and correct your typing. Not to mention the pressure your followers will put on you and your need to post quickly because everyone is waiting to hear what you will say. And, of course if you are RIGHT the majority of the time, you’ll get hammered with requests to post an update. That is, of course, if you are as good as Dave is.
2. If you come here just to complain that Dave is wrong, don’t come to his website. It’s really simple – just tune into your very reliable local weather channels who get it right 100% of the time – mostly because they are standing outside with the precip hitting them on the head. Cool – let’s stand outside and give a shot of it snowing and say “It’s going to snow today!” Thanks, I see the same thing you do.
Dave, thanks for updating with what you did incorrectly and what you did right. There’s an old saying that goes like this – Admit your mistakes before someone exaggerates them. Looks like you get it. And, for those of us that love what you are doing and trust you fully, we’ll continue to come to your site. Keep up the excellent work. Criticism comes with perfection.
Dave, there’s an old saying “Show me someone who is not making any mistakes and I’ll show you someone who is not doing anything!” Don’t sweat this storm, this one was a bear to forecast. I got concerned on Wed. when the local metereologists and weather forums-for our area-were all over the place with the snow totals.
Snowing fairly hard now in Short Pump, so who knows, we may get enough to enjoy this storm after all.
One word of advice, state your opinion and forget about what everyone else is thinking. This is your site and I come here for your opinion.
Good luck form a loyal follower.
dave have you thought about starting a chat room or a forum here at your website?
Thanks for your website DT, I enjoy it. I’ve posted one time under John and now I see another John being negative toward the forecast. I’m the John who ask about the storm tracking north to whom you responded. I guess I need another posting name.
I found the comments about being banned from the chat room hillarious….I wouldn’t worry too much about them.
I enjoy checking on your updates and have referred many of our friends to your site. I appreciate the fact you admit when and WHY you were wrong. Being wrong happens sometimes in your line of of work…don’t worry about it. Your track record more than makes up for the few times you have missed it.
Keep up the great work!
Williamsburg WX – Got about 1″ total rain fall from this event so far with 1/2″ of it falling overnight. Temps held between 37-41 degrees overnight and currently are dropping thru 35 degrees. Beginning to snow now and sticking on non-pavement surfaces. My wife wants to take a drive to RIC and visit Whole Foods in Short Pump. How’s the roads up there? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller, Bueller…
DT, Looking forward to the next event play-by-play. Keep up the great and interesting wx insights. You da man!
ES_Addict
I live in short pump a few miles form whole foods. I haven’t ventured out but my sidewalk has started to freeze hard. So areas that were wet are going to be ice soon. Be careful.
Snow started here several hours ago (Brandermill- just SW of richmond in 23112 zip) We now have a fresh inch and a half of snow on top of the slushy accumulations from yesterday. Still snowing lightly with a lot of wrap around showing on the radar. Looks like it will be close whether a few of the bands of decent snow make it here or stay just north of us….
Thx Eric.
looks like dave may have another busy week.. keep up the good work dave we really appreciate the detailed forecast
Hey Dave!
I’ve been following you since the storm last weekend and found your insight very helpful and interesting. I was very aggravated when you got banned from WTVR. Is there any other weather forum that you chat on? I will continue to check your website but I like watching you interact with other people in a chat room. Thanks for what you do!
Snowing like crazy in farrington since 8am. Love your site. Keep up the good work….
OK… As Dave’s “web guy”… I have been very happy to see his site take off… especially given the lastest round of “events”. In light of Dave getting “banned” from the WTVR chatroom..and since I was snowed in anyways this morning.. I decided to give Dave a little gift and launch a chatroom of his own at http://www.wxrisk.com/chat . It is still in the development stages.. but is currently functional. Suggestions and Feedback on the chatroom can be emailed to me at admin@keywebconcepts.com. Happy Chatting.
Its snow pretty good in Short Pump. Just cleaned the cars and when I was done there was already a 1/2 inch where I had just been. Still a little slushy under the snow on the driveway but the current snow is very dry and fluffy.
Hi, Jim….poor Dave….what have you set him up for
frankie
I trust your forecasting more than any other! You tell it like you see it and I learn soooo much more about the weather with your forecasts! Everybody was calling for this to start as rain and you shot them down! You were 100 percent correct in that matter. I guess cbs 6 does not like having competition on their site. Keep up the great work and I look forward to your forecasts in the future!
Pretty wild to see the storm falling almost due south from NOVA now on the NWS radar. Dave said the models showed this but it was almost unbelievable that it would actually do it. I was a confirmed doubter until I saw it with my own eyes. Looks like a little more snow in Ric if it continues to move south before it pulls east. Good on ya Dave.
I heard about your website on WRVA 1140 last week and am impressed by your methodology and subsequent accuracy. Still snowing in Midlothian (Powderham)
Good work!
Hey!!! I’ve just been turned on to this site several weeks ago. It is the best weather site I’ve seen. Your predictions are better than the local guys. I live in southside VA. in Clarksville and I’ve been telling all my friends about the site. I’ve been working part time with VDOT and the long range forcast has help me plan my work schedule. Thanks again.
It is 3:15 pm on Saturday , Feburary 6th. I live in Reeds Hill subdivision and we have 5-6 inches of snow since about 7am this morning.As far as I am concerned Dave you have it right again. Our 2 day total is right at 9 inches. Who said you have to perfect? No one else is even close. The Weather Channel said we would have 1/2 inch today, then after we had about 3 inches they changed the forecast to 1 inch.
How often will we get updates for the next two possible events? I’ve really enjoyed your frankness with your predictions over these last two events! Thanks!
Dave — I work for VDOT and just want to say THANKS!!!
Live about one mile East of the I-95 Atlee/Elmont exit and had about 3.5 inches of snow & sleet yesterday before it turned to sleet & rain and then compressed to about 2 inches of slush.
Has been snowing all day today; shoveled about 2 inches of fairly wet & heavy snow from our walks about midday, and just shoveled about 4 inches of light and fluffy snow from the same areas about 15 minutes ago. Still coming down impressively and is still the light & fluffy variety.
Total frozen precip for Friday & Sat… about 9.5 inches here, so far.
So interesting to watch the system sag down towards us from DC, just like you said it could.
Keep it up!!!!
Hey Mike – I used to have a place in Clarksville. You don’t do docks do you? As in Mike D?
5 1/2 inches in charles city since it switched back to snow this morning, and still snowing
At least 5 inches in shortpump and maybe more today. Measured 4 yesterday. If you missed the note above the chat room is open.
http://wxrisk.com/chat
Just wanted to say thank you. I enjoy reading your explanations of the weather models and have showed several friends your site. Am learning a lot about weather forecasting from you.
Who cares if you got some of the forecast wrong…you were still MUCH closer than any other forecast I heard, and what’s especially amazing is how far OUT from the event you manage to call it. When everyone else was saying this was just going to be rain for the Richmond area, you sounded the alarm that….hello….maybe it’s NOT going to just be rain. Thanks to you I made my Ukrops run on Wednesday and didn’t have to get caught with the flunkies that waited until Friday because they thought we were only getting rain…LOL. You are the MAN ! How the heck do you do it anyway ??? And why aren’t “YOU” the National Weather Service ? Keep up the good work !
I read where you explained what you got wrong on your forecast, and it really wasn’t that bad all things considered. I’m going to be spending a good part of today shoveling the results of Jim Duncan’s “mostly rain event” off of my driveway. It’s funny, I never heard him say that he got any part of his forecast wrong. In fact, the co-anchor made a big deal of praising the station’s meteorologists for their early call of the storm. Never mind that their characterization of it was 180 degrees out of phase with reality. I understand that meteorology presents challenges unlike those in most jobs, but I’m just sick of the TV (and the weather-lite Weather Channel guys on the radio) continually feeding us a constant stream of mediocrity and then putting a positive spin on it. Aren’t we already subjected to enough of that from our politicians?
WOW, you are the best! I have just been introduced to your site as of Thursday of this past week. You were right on the money with our weather in Mineral VA. We have a mess of snow and ice but we were at least ready thanks to your forcast. I am telling everyone about you……keep it up.
looks like things may slowed down after wednesday.. keep us posted
I love this website! Looking forward to the changes you mentioned where there will be regular updates. You are very very good!!!!!! Good luck to you this week.
Thank you very much for sharing your passion for forecasting. We here in VA will be bookmarking your site and checking in often.
I am excited about the changes you discussed. Can you add the definitions of some of the basic terms you are using? I’m getting dizzy reading your log and flipping to another couple of web pages so I can try to understand your excellent info. Thanks!
Not sure exactly what you meant by “so if any of you loyal readers are interested in getting a TAG of LOGO link for this new web opage… better let me know soon.” but please do make sure we have a way to keep seeing your forecasts and outlooks. You do a great job of taking what is an extremely complicated process of forecasting and breaking it down so that a layman can understand it. My dad was a meteorologist for USAF from the mid ’50s to the early 70′s and said that Virginia and Richmond in particular was one of the most difficult places to forecast for especially in winter since the rain/snow line inevitably seems to fall within 25 miles or so no matter which way the storms come from. I am impressed that Dave is willing to state his forecast/outlooks well in advance(while letting us know what can change) instead of waiting ’til the day before or day of the storm to give totals. Also that he came back the next day and explained what he got right AND wrong. Please keep up the great work and thanks.
I have confidence in your ability to forecast the weather! I hope we’ll be able to continue to view your blog and your website! Your information on this last storm was excellent!
Dave, I have been following your predictions for about a month. You are the greatest! We are not here for a grammar lesson, only the weather. Keep up your free and good work. No need to listen to other weatherpeople ten times a day who are usually aftraid to hedge on upcoming weather events. Thanks!
You are awesome!! How impressive your rate of correct forecasting has been. You are our number 1 source for weather information!