The EARLY Spring pattern has not really moved much from the Winter pattern over Europe.    The dominating feature remains a powerful Ridge centered over the UK and Western Europe. Some interpret this feature to be an east based -NAO and having a block in the jet stream over the UK does technically count as a -NAO but synoptically speaking having a Block over the UK really is not a -NAO.     However the impact for Europe remains the same as if there was a classic -NAO (a block over Ireland and Iceland).     The powerful Ridge over the UK is producing a correspondingly deep and persistent trough over the Central and Eastern Europe into western Russia.     Temperatures are running well below normal and we are seeing significant Low pressure areas tracked through the Mediterranean providing much of central and southern Europe with above normal precipitation.

This morning a satellite image shows that the first system has only moved through the Ukraine and the Black Sea and is now moving into Central Asia and the northern portions of the Middle East.    We can see a second system now moving through the central Mediterranean.

This image shows the morning surface map and we can see the powerful system located over central Italy and the massive sprawling High pressure area centered over Scotland dominating all of Western Europe and especially to Central and Eastern Europe.    The interaction between these two systems is producing a strong southeast wind which is the moisture into central and southern Europe which is only serving to enhance the snow and rain.

This image shows the current 850 Mb temps over Europe and these low readings are quite impressive for early March.    Naturally with this sort of impressive cold air any precipitation which falls over central eastern Europe including the Balkans is going to fall mainly as snow.

By the week and we can see the massive trough moving through Eastern Europe and into the Baltics and Belarus and the western Ukraine.    Temperatures are very cold for this time of year.

BY day 9 the 12z 3/9 run of the European model is developing a Low both at the surface and in the jet stream which moves towards the UK… temporarily breaking down the strong ridge.     And when the Ridge breaks down so doesa the trough which allows for significant warming to occur over central Europe and the cold weekends over Ukraine and Belarus and western Russia.

However this does not last as the models we show the Ridge rebuilding over Western Europe which reestablishes a new trough and a new system diving out of Scandinavia into the Baltics and headed for Belarus and western Russia.

We can see this on the European ensemble which continues to show a strong ridge over the UK and Western Europe and a pretty deep trough over western Russia.