The WxRisk 30 day forecast is based on Ensembles forecasting… Teleconnections (Upper air patterns) and Long term climate/ seasonal Indices. As such the 30 Day forecast is stochastic and NOT deterministic. Accurate temperatures forecasting Beyond 7 days is simply not possible and given Non Linear Dynamics theory ( "CHAOS") it probably never will be. However as the Ensembles data and techniques become better…. along with better techniques … and better understanding of monthly and seasonal teleconnections Indices…. PROBABILITY forecasting with certain set parameters (Much above Normal… Much Below Normal etc.) is possible. Indeed they become quite useful to ENERGY and AGRICULTURAL Industries.

Updated  4 /3/ 06   830 AM EST

http://wxrisk.com/ENERGY/ETE.wav

   WRITTEN REPORT    OUT  BY  8AM CST   M-F  and Sunday afternoon by subscription only
 for info  email me   wxrisk@comcast.net

 

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