SPRING 2006 FORECAST

The past several seasons have featured some very important forecasts for energy and agriculture. Unfortunately the CF (consensus forecasts) have done a really bad job over the last several seasons and we are faced with another critical situation going into the Spring and Summer seasons of 2007. There appears to be a developing bias against counting too heavily on Weather forecasts in the seasonal sense from many agricultural and energy interests. And given how the consensus forecasts have performance so badly such a skepticism cannot be viewed as unreasonable.

As we leave the winter of 2006 --07 Keep in mind that the CF (consensus forecast) from many of the well-known established weather forecasting companies as well as the CPC -- climate prediction Center- once again busted quite badly. The El Niño event did NOT reach a sustained moderate level for more than a few weeks... it did not last all winter... and the mild pattern we saw in November and December 2006 collapsed dramatically with a sustained very cold pattern developing from 15 Jan to FEB 28. Or for example take a look at the forecast disaster that the consensus forecasts experienced with the hurricane season of 2006.... Or the heavily hyped severe winter forecast of 2005 --06... which turned out to be rather mild for most of the CONUS.

In most of those cases WxRisk.com was against the CF (consensus forecast) and for the most part that turned out to be correct. This past winter WxRisk.com made a good winter forecast made but not a great one....certainly not as good as winter 2005-06 or my hurricane forecast from 2006.

I correctly forecasted that the moderate El Niño event of winter 2006-7 would only reach the moderate criteria for a few weeks... and it would weaken dramatically in the second half of the winter. To the past my knowledge I was the ONLY major forecaster / private forecasting company to make that specific claim. I correctly forecasted a major change in the second half the winter to a much colder stormier pattern over the central and eastern US.

In the first half of the winter however I did NOT do as well. The Jet stream maps tunred out to be very accurate for December and early January but I did not include any areas of Above Normal over the eastern US which was a significant error.

Typically when you have a weakening El Niño in the late winter / early Spring the pattern has a bias towards a wet and chilly Spring for the Plains Midwest and East Coast. . And that appears to be what the consensus forecast is calling for this time around. However WxRisk.com disputes that idea / scenario for the first half of Spring 2007. Instead I see a fairly DRY March 2007 .... with Below normal temperatures in the first half of the month over the eastern third of the CONUS and above normal temperatures over the Rockies and the Plains for most of the month. There are 2 reasons for this forecast.

On the other hand I do see April 2007 running below normal across much of central and eastern CONUS and the southern Canada. This is heavily based upon idea that there will be a significant amount high latitude blocking in the Jet stream over eastern Canada and Greenland which in turn forces the Jet stream to take a further south track and allow colder air to track further to the south and east than it normally might. Indeed the last several runs of the German climate forecast model which is far away statistically best 3 month climate model in the world has been showing a fairly cold April over eastern Canada and the eastern half of the CONUS.

I see MAY 2007 turning warm and dry especially over the Plains and into the western portions of the Midwest as the summer pattern begins to kick in especially after the 15th of month.

The other key aspect of this Spring season is going to be the development of the La Nina event. Although many of the climate models are showing a moderate or strong LA NINA event developing by the early Summer 2007... it must be kept in mind that these are forecast models and NOT fact. If one were to keep in mind the forecast models of this past winter which forecasted a moderate El Niño... some skepticism would be justified. The El Nino did develop as forecasted but it barely reached Moderate threshold for only a 6 weeks before the El Niño rapidly collapsed.

The excessively wet winter -- especially since JAN 15 -- over the eastern portions of the Plains and the WCB can be seen very nicely on this graphic which shows the short-term soil moisture conditions across the CONUS.

However in the long term we can see that the wettest conditions are over the ECB into the eastern Great Lakes and the entire northeast from the North Carolina coast up to Maine. On both maps we can see that Southern California and the Southwest US regions are quite dry. And thee are areas of dryness over the Northern Rockies as well.

The latest drought monitor map shows there developing areas dry conditions across the Northern Rockies and into some areas of the Upper Plains as well as a Southwest. And there is that pocket of intense dryness over the Rio Grande bend of Texas. If you take a look at how these dry areas are setting up... in a SW to NE orientation from Southern California into Wyoming and portions of North Dakota... we can get some indication that this is where the mean Ridge position may be setting up for good portion of the spring season. If this pattern were in fact to develop it would mean that there the pattern would favor significant drying to occur over much of the Midwest and especially the WCB .... and the mean trough will be for located much further to the east over New England.

Taking a look at some other regional maps from the latest drought monitor we can see that the Plains

regions is showing fairly significant areas of very dry conditions with drought levels as low asD2 to D4 at 29%. This time last year we are 3%

On the other hand the lower Plains are significantly better with respect to drought conditions that we had last year. If you recall conditions over the lower Plains were much drier in the spring of 2006... with 52% of the area experience D2- D3 - D4 conditions. As of the end of February on the 12.4% of the lower Plains are seeing D2 D3 D4 conditions.

And in the Midwest only 11.3% of the region is seeing significant drought conditions and these areas are confined to Northern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin.

By far away the most accurate of the the climate models in the past few years has been the CAS or the soil moisture Climate model. This model is heavily based upon the current soil moisture levels combined with the climatology of what has occurred from similar events in the past.

Each for these maps has two panels ... the Upper maps is the temperature forecast and the bottom map is he Rainfall forecast.

The Green line which I have superimposed on these three maps represent the mean jet stream position around the various High and Low pressure areas that the German climate model each depicting. In the month of March climate model is depicting blocking pattern over southern Greenland which would tend keep a trough over the Eastern US ... colder temps.... and a weak Ridge over the West coast . This pattern would tend to keep the Plains very dry and allow some rain events over the ECB.

The German Climate model for APRIL 2006 shows a massive trough over western Canada into Alaska with a Ridge of HIGH pressure over the Eastern Third of the CONUS. This sort of pattern keeps the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies cold and excessively wet and eastern US warm & dry. The storm track would keep major rain events away from the Plains and Midwest.... with systems tracking Northeast into from say MT to Manitoba and the western Great Lakes.

The German Climate model for MAY 2006 shows two Ridges -- one on the West coast and one on the East coast and weak trough over central Canada . This sort of pattern COULD BRING normal rainfall events to the Upper Plains and WCB.

The La Nina event --cold water along the equatorial Pacific --is the opposite of El Nino -- warm water along Equatorial Pacific. see Map

Over the last 10 years our understanding of La Nina and El Nino events have greatly improved. El Nino and La Nina events come in all different shapes and sizes... strong events moderate event and weak events. These events are centered in two distinct areas --- see the map above. These regions are 1.2 ( the WHITE box off the coast of Peru on the map above) and region 3.4. (the Yellow and Red box).

As we take a look into the Summer of 2007 the absolutely critical question is going to be whether or not the ongoing La Nina continues into what the Summer or whether it will falls apart. As you can see from these next set of maps the impact of La Nina over the central portions of the US during the late Spring and Summer months is VERY significant. As I stated earlier since 1900 .... 8 of the last 10 droughts that have occurred over the central US have done with so with La Nina conditions in place.

Each of these diagrams have SIX set of maps for your consideration. The LEFT hand side refers to Temperatures the RIGHT hand side refers to Rainfall. The first row refers to El Nino events... the second row is for La Nina event and the 3rd row is for Neither .

This first map refers to the period from May June and July and if we look at the second row which is the La Nina maps
out of 12 previous La Nina events.... the Midwest experienced near normal temperatures with the Plains seeing slightly above normal temperatures.

However the main point here is the Rainfall during La Nina event... Note that it shows a huge area of a much Below Normal Rain fall at least centered over the central Plains and the entire Midwest in the period of May June and July. This map clearly shows the impact of why La Nina events often bring about drought conditions over the Midwest and portions of the Plains.

This second map refers to the period from June July & August . Once again looking at the second row which is the La Nina maps.... temperatures were running about + 0.50 to +1.0 above normal over the Midwest and the Upper Plains.... with another very strong signal for below and much rainfall over the heart of the Midwest .

This third map refers to the period July August & September.... Once again looking at the second row which is the La Nina maps.... temperatures were running about a half a degree above normal over the Midwest and most of the Plains.... with another very strong signal for below and much rainfall over the heart of the Midwest

Finally there is a new experimental climate model which is being run by the CPC and is heavily based upon the current soil moisture as well as the short long-term drought pan indicators. These maps are pre-self explanatory. These first to maps in this set cover the expected Temperatures and expected rainfall for the period July August and September.

As you can see in the June Jul Aug period there are no strong signals for temperatures running Above or below normal over much of the Plains and Midwest... but the Bottom map shows a strong signal...60% chance ...of seeing near normal temperatures over the Midwest and Upper Plains. The second man here shows map is rainfall for JJA ... what a strong signal for below home rainfall over the WCB and Great Lakes as well as the western US.

The second set a maps here refers to the period July August September began with the first mapping temperatures the second at being precipitation. As you can see there is a very strong signal above normal temperatures over all of the Plains and the Midwest based upon the current trends ... with a secondary chance for near normal temperatures over the central Plains an to the WCB. Note there is almost no chance whatsoever of any portion of the Plains or the Midwest seeing Below Normal temps if this Summer and this is due mainly to the very dry conditions which have of already developed.

One of the biggest misconceptions about El Niño and La Nina events that traders and the general public has is that a Moderate El Niño or La Nina event will produce a certain Weather pattern and that a weaker El Nino / La Nina will produce the SAME weather pattern just LESS of "it".... and a Strong El Nino / La Nina will produce MORE of the same weather pattern.

That concept is NOT correct. For example there is a strong correlation between MODERATE or STRONG El Niño events and Above average temperatures over the central and eastern CONUS. However when you have a WEAK El Niño....that strongly correlates to to Below normal temperature pattern as well as a stormy one for the central and eastern CONUS. That is exactly what we saw over the Winter--- in NOV and DEC 2006 (the first half half of the winter) the El Niño was moderate and we experienced a very warm pattern. As soon as the El Niño dropped to WEAK status.. three or four weeks later the pattern shifted to severely cold one which continued right into early March.

It is imperative that any discussion about the possible La Nina for this Spring and Summer include the right set of circumstances and analogs. It is IRRELVANT to

Got it? ok....

This next image shows all the El Niño and La Nina events since 1950 and 12-month increments. Again the only thing we are looking for are MODERATE El Nino events that died in FEB or March and a La Nina event which started in the SPRING season and reached maturity in the SUMMER or early Autumn. The BLUE or negative numbers refer to La Nina events and the RED refer to El Niño events.

Take a look at 1950 for example. As you can see there was a moderate La Nina that continued to the summer months and began to weak and as he moved into autumn. However that La Nina was strongest in January of 1950 when the SSTA in ENSO region was -1.8c below normal. Therefore it is irrelevant to the sample we are looking for.

As one searches through the data it be quickly becomes apparent that are very few events which match this specific criteria. The last time we had a moderate El Nino event in the Winter months that died off rapidly in February and March... that moved into Moderate or Strong La Nina during in the Summer months was 1988.

A close match is the 1964 season. In Jan of 1964 there was a Moderate El Nino event that died off by March 19674. By the Summer of 19864 there was a WEAK La Nina event under way that did reach MODERATE status but not until late in the Autumn and Winter.

This image shows some very important data with regard to ALL the La Nina event in general and La Nina events which began in the first half of the year. As you can see the La Nina events of 1954-57 1973-74 1988 -89 1974-76 1998-2000 1970-72 1964-65 1984-85 1967-68 1983-84 1995-96 2000--01 1961-62 are listed for consideration. That as I mentioned above are the events that began in the spring season.

Taking a look at the column says START PERIOD you will quickly notice that there were 4 La Nina events that began in SPRING ...such as MAM or say AMJ . All 4 of these events feature MODERATE or STRONG La Nina events. The strongest La Nina event on record 1954-57 began in APRI1954... the second strongest La Nina in MAY of 1973... and the third strongest in MAY 1988.

Notice that the La Nina events which began in the second half of the year... there were 7 of them... 6 of the 7 La Nina events were WEAK category La Nina events.

One of the breakthroughs over the last 5 to 10 years that climatologists and meteorologists have discovered regarding El Niño and La Nina events is that much like the Jet stream in the Upper levels of the atmosphere determine where storms and troughs and ridges of going to develop... the subsurface temperature anomalies which exist from 20 meters to 300 meters below the surface of the ocean are very good indicators of what is going to happen along the surface of the ocean several weeks ahead of time.

To show you how this works I have presented a few images from all 4 ENSO regions. Each of these maps show the surface as well as the subsurface temperature anomalies . This first image is from 7 August1 2006 and it shows the developing pool of Warm water in the early stages of the El Nino at about 100 meters below these surface of the ocean along the Equatorial Pacific.

Five weeks later on September 16 we can see a much stronger and larger area of warm than normal SSTs -- sea surface temperatures-- centered around 50 to 100 meters below the surface. These two maps provide classic proof of how the warming at the subsurface ocean levels are an indication of what's going to happen on the sea surface a few weeks down the road.

Parenthetically the development of the El Nino in AUG & SEPT 2006 became one of the primary reasons as WHY the Hurricane season of 2006 was much weaker than expected ( the other two reasons being excessive amounts out Saharan dust and very hostile upper-level winds) across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Basin).

By Christmas when the El Nino reached max intensity we can see a large pool of warm water along the surface down to 50 or 75 meters below. The temperature anomalies show up as areas of 4 and 5° above normal. However we can also begin to see a " hint" of a Build up of cold water in the western Pacific well beneath the surface. At this point in time it seemed that the moderate El Niño will continue through much in January and February.

Indeed on 3 JAN 2007 a leading private forecasting firm in New England issued a much publicized statement which was carried by Energy and Agricultural News services that called for continuation of the record and near record warm winter right into early March as well as continuation of the El Niño event. How they made that forecast given how fast the El Nino was weakening at the subsurface Levels is hard to figure.

In order to understand the developing threat of a moderate or significant La Nina event for the late Spring and Summer of 2007 it is VITAL to understand what happened with the short-lived moderate El Niño event of this past winter.

Most of the consensus forecast called for the El Niño that developed in the Autumn of 2006.... 1) would reach either Moderate or Strong intensity.... 2) continue through the winter into it at least the Spring of 2007. As I showed above... the El Niño DID reach the "moderate" level for several weeks in late November through the late December BUT the event leveled off as we entered the Early January 2007 and by the 20th the data showed the El Niño was weakening rapidly.

This image dated Jan 21 shows the amazing change that had occurred in less than 4 weeks. Instead of seeing the large pool of WARM SSTAs there was NO warm SSTA anywhere. Instead there was a developing pool of cold SSTAs at 100 to 150 meters depth.

At this point given what the real time data was showing most of the seasonal forecasts should of been adjusted.

If one were to take a look at the historical data since 1950 of the SSTA -- sea surface temperature anomalies-- in ENSO region 3.4 there appears to be no pattern to the data. However that is not quite the case. The El Niño 2006-07 developed in August and September of 2006 .... came about after the weak La Nina of 2005-06 fell apart in March and April of 2006. If you look at ALL the WEAK Winter La Nina events... see the PURPLE BOXES... you will notice that in every instance where a weak La Nina event that died out in March April May .... the El Nino event that followed was either weak or Moderate El Nino.

It was this discovery which led me to forecast that the El Niño of 2006 --07 would not reach a sustained a moderate intensity... and will fall apart or weaken a fairly rapidly once it reached its peak. It was this understanding of the dynamic that enable me to forecast a significantly colder and stormier second half of the winter for the central and eastern CONUS. Many Private weather forecast services including the Climate Prediction Center did not understand or detect this seasonal tendency.

THE GROWING THREAT OF A LA NINA FOR 2007

There is really is no other way to stay so let me be direct. The development of a moderate or Strong La Nina will be critical in determining the type of Summer and hurricane season will have over the CONUS and Atlantic Basin. It is just that simple.

One of the things that we can do with forecasting events such as La Nina and El Niño event is to use the new technologies to run the forecast models every few days to track the tendencies and the overall trends for several days or even weeks. The idea here is to increase forecast of confidence but for forecasters which are not particular skilled in using these new technologies and climate models....it actually ends up causing more confusion and uncertainty so it is important that when you are using a private forecasting service for example that they are knowledgeable and familiar with the various new climate forecast systems and models which are coming out on a regular basis every other day.

As of the end of February 2007 the SSTA in ENSO region 3.4 had dropped to +0.03C or essentially Neutral. From the peak in late December/ early January we can say that this was the fastest drop from the peal to Neutral status ever recorded in ENSO 3.4 history.

Here is the mid-February European Model FORECAST for Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for the ENSO 3.4 Model. The various RED lines are possible solutions or scenarios that the European model is showing over the next several months with regard to be SSTA in this region. As you can see this forecast was issued in mid-February but the last Data point is from January. Looking at these RED Lines... we can see that the model in late JAN did not forecast the SSTA to drop to 0.00 late April or May 2007. Since CURRENT SSTA are at 0.00 .... we can conclude the European model FORECAST of SSTAs from mid-February is INVALID.

This next map is a plot of the various climate ensemble means or averages which was done in late February 2007. As you can see from the various spaghetti lines most of the models are showing at least a 1° temperature anomaly by late April early May in the ENSO 3.4 region. This will qualify as a moderate La Nina with one of the models showing a strong La Nina by the summer months.

By far and away the most important climate model used in forecasting the SSTAs the various ENSO regions is the CFS... which is run by the CPC. The CFS is issued very other.... which is important because when you're dealing with forecast that are 2...3... 4... and 5 months the tendency and trends are for more important than what anyone particular model of seeing at any one particular time.

Let looks at the map February 9 CFS plots which covers the period from 13 JAN to 1 FEB.

First I have superimposed over the graph the regions of El Nino and La Nina and which areas are Weak Moderate and strong.

Note the different color lines --- BROWN RED and BLUE. The RED lines refer to the models run from 13 Jan to 22 Jan.... the BLUE lines from 23 Jan to 1 FEB. Note how ALL the colored lines are
in a down direction....

Notice that the THICK dark blue Line which shows an average or MEAN of ALL the various forecast models. By Early APRIL the Mean shows weak La Nina event.... that becomes Moderate by the Summer. However sometimes taking the average is not necessarily the best thing to do. If you look at this map closely you will notice that most of the BLUE lines .... which are the most recent models runs -- show EXTREMELY strong La Nina event developing by 15 APRIL 2007.

This next image is from MARCH 1. Notice that we now have a much more uniform and less scattered solution with various RED BROWN and BLUE lines all concentrated much closer together to early APRIL. By the middle of APRIL 2007 we begin to see some divergence or spreading of these various spaghetti lines but nothing of what we saw on the 9 FEB CFS. The data clearly shows MODERATE La Nina conditions are in place between April 15 and 30 when SSTA drops to -1.0c surface temperature anomaly and STRONG La Nina by JULY 2007 as the SSTA go through a second surge or drop.

it is far too early to make detailed Hurricane forecast. It is VERY dangerous to make a forecast based upon a forecast ... that is one of thing that happened in the Spring and early Summer of 2006. Everyone assumed that the weak La Nina of the winter 2005-06 would last into the Summer and it did not. In Fact not only did the La Nina "suddenly " breakdown but the El Nino "suddenly" developed.

That being said... unlike the 2006 Hurricane forecast this year I am Bullish on the Idea of SIGNIFICANTLY above Normal Hurricane activity with a significant Gulf of Mexico threat. Both the La Nina ANALOG seasons of 1964 and 1988 had significant activity in the gulf. Of course one musty keep in mind that both of those years occurred in the 25 year down hurricane cycle... and we are now in the middle of a UP cycle of increased Hurricane activity.

In addition we are heading into a Negative QBO cycle which also helps to enhance Hurricane activity as well. Last Autumn the QBO was at or above +10.00 that dropped very slowly in OCT NOV and DEC. now the QBO value is very close to 0.0 IF the QBO were to drop to -15 or so that would greatly enhanced Hurricane activity in general. but Gain even though the cycle would seem to assure that the QBO will turn deeply Negative by AUG SEPT and OCT of 2007 it is quite possible that the QBO may stay close to Neutral.

1. SPRING FORECAST MAPS	6. TENDENCIES OF MODERATE - STRONG LA NINA
2. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE	7 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE 2007 LA NINA
3. CAS MODEL	8 SUBSURFACE SEA TEMP ANOMALIES
4. GAF MODEL	9 GROWING THREAT OF LA NINA
5. THE LA NINA EVENT	10 HURRICANE SEASON OF 2007

	JET STREAM	TEMPS	PRECIP
MARCH 2007
APRIL 2007
MAY 2007

MARCH 2007	APRIL 2007	MAY 2007

MARCH 2007	APRIL 2007	MAY 2007