2. Next MAJOR Low to develop over central Rockies... central Plains & WCB May 10 with rain amounts 0.25 to 1.00" ... Over Midwest 0.50 to 1.50" with isolated 2.00" VERY cool air to follow MAY 12-15
3. CRITICAL POINT : The Thursday overnight American model has system for MAY 15-17 suppressed to the south --over HRWW. Some forecasters are already backing off the MAY 15-17 rain. THAT FORECAST IS NOT CORRECT SINCE THE AMERICAN IS "WAY OUT THERE" HAS NO OTHER MODEL SUPPORT.
NOTE the Updated 6 AM American Model has brought back the MAY 15-17 rain event as it now shows significant to heavy rains for the Plains and Midwest
YESTERDAY: Wednesday MAX TEMPS http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SFCUS/yesmax.html SHORT RANGE MAY 8 - 9 RAINFALL NEXT 24 HRSThe current areas of growing rain and Thunderstorms over central / eastern NEB and Northwest MO is the beginning of the next major rain event. There is not much to change with this system. The rain shield will be the to north and east of the Low pressure area... The best rains will fall over Northeast KS NEB MO IA SD today... into MN ILL WI tonight with amounts in the 0.35" to 1.50" " range with some higher amounts and coverage 85%+
The rains will move into the ECB Friday.... the BEST rains from Interstate 70 NORTH. Amounts North of I-70 0.50 to 1.50" 80% coverage... SOUTH of I-70 0.25 to 0.75" with 60% coverage
CONSENSUS FORECAST: Some forecasters have too much rain over Eastern TX WHAT COULD GO WRONG: Not much. REST OF THE WEEK MAY 10 - 14 This Thursday morning all the models are in strong agreement through TUESDAY MAY 12... then there problems. There are NO BIG changes with regard to the May 10-11 Low.... The rains over the central and Upper Plains appear to be somewhat lighter than the earlier data was showing... mainly because this system will take a bit longer to develop. Rain for NEB SD Lower ND Lower MN western IA...0.25 to 0.75" with 60% coverage.For the Midwest this MAY 11-12 system will be a doozy. We are still looking at ANOTHER 1-3 inch rainfall covering eastern IA southeast MN Wisconsin Illinois Indiana Michigan and Ohio... with 75%+ coverage
The Low-pressure area will be "blocked" by another Low pressure system over Newfoundland Canada and as a result it will stall over the Great Lakes on the 12th and 13th. With the Low-pressure area stalled over the Great Lakes the region WILL get a break in the rainy pattern for a few days but there IS a downside to this. The Deep Low over the Great Lakes will bring in a very cool late-season air mass over most of the upper Plains & the Midwest bringing much below normal temperatures for the period of May 13th through the 16th.
This system will NOT affect the Lower Plains or Deep South.
CONSENSUS FORECAST: Some forecasters have too much rain over Eastern TX WHAT COULD GO WRONG: Not much.
NEXT WEEK MAY 14 - 20
The AMERICAN MODEL THURSDAY MORNING at 3am came out with a BIG change with regard to the MAY 15-17 next Big Low. The model still brings in a big system into central and Lower CALIF but the American Model this morning now has the Block over south central Canada as a very strong feature. This suppresses the May 15-16 Low to the south. IF so this would bring heavy rains to the KS OK TX lower MO ARK LA and the Deep South.The problem is that this scenario is UTTER BS. There are several reasons why I come to this conclusion. First... the American model from overnight a MODEL OUTLIER... by that I mean that it has a solution which is violently different from what it has been showing the last several model runs.
Second the American model solution has NO support from ANY other weather model. NONE. In this day and age of Modern meteorology... IF weather Models shows a significant change in a storm track (such as what the overnight American model is depicting) ... then other weather models such as the European British Canadian or Navy models will also pick up on this change in the system. The fact that they do not is a critical piece of information and all good forecasters should NOT make changes in a forecast of this magnitude based upon ONE model run. This is a very important principle here at wxrisk.com... which I cannot emphasize enough. Indeed the 7 AM updated American model has shifted the May 15-16 Low back to the North into the central Plains & the Midwest as the develops a driving rainstorm for the region!!!. Third as we have discussed this several tiems before the American model has tried to suppress Low pressure areas to the South over the last two weeks and develop significant rains for the HRWW areas. Yet every time the systems track across either North Kansas or into Nebraska and the Midwest. The reason for this is because the seasonal pattern is SPRING which has brought the best rains n five years into Nebraska and South Dakota as well as the WCB which is keepthe storm track to the north and hence away from the HRWW.In addition none of the ensemble data is supportive of the overnight American model solution on a suppressed storm track either. So not only do we have a weather model which shows something significantly different for the last several runs... it's against the seasonal pattern of this Spring 2003... it also has no other weather model support! The most that one COULD say at this point in time is that this system on May 15-16 could be suppressed the South but since it's a long way off and much of the data does not show this will have to watch carefully exceed the trend develops.
CONSENSUS FORECAST: Some forecasters have too much rain over Eastern TX WHAT COULD GO WRONG: Not much.