GOOD EVENING FOLKS 1 Attached is a radar from 630 PM CDT; as you can see Thunderstorms over central MO and develops and moved into central MO. Coverage is like 30% over MO and these cells are NOT big or large. It is possible that these cells May move into IA overnight. The fact is that these showers are really small and insignificant and are LIKELY OVER represented by the Radar maps. 2. Soil Moisture maps show a HUGE drop in soil moisture across the WCB over the last 14 days. On June 10-11 the days showed 75% to 85% of the soil in the WCB was rated to have "adequate" or Moist soil conditions. Now 70% of the soil in the WCB is SHORT of adequate moisture.
BOTTOM LINE
The Weak shower event over the next 48 hours still looks weak. The Cold front only cools off the CCB and ECB but then its is gone by JULY 6.... with the CCB AND ECB heating back up. However WCB / PLAINS stays HOT / DRY through JULY 10. Be warned the Heat Ridge "Dome of Death" event is OVER by JULY 9/10 with much cooler temps and some rain for the ECB / CCB but WCB & Plains stays HOT and DRY. Rockies / SW Canada to see several days of 100 degree heat JULY 8-14.The evening American Model is still having the same problem it had a midday. Its over develops a BIG Low pressure are over southeast Canada / Maine which affects the weather for the Plains & Midwest over the next 4 days in that the Low pressure over SE Canada causes the HIGH that was North of the Great Lakes to drop south... which in turn drives the July 4 cold front further south into the Midwest which makes more showers/ Thunderstorms. However WXRISK holds the opinion since that Big Low in southeast Canada is overdone by the American Model... so is the idea of an extended rain over the Midwest over the next 48 hrs.
WXRISK STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/ T-STORMS OVER THE WCB / CCB / ECB AMOUNTS OF 0.10 - 0.45" AND COVERAGE OF 30 -40% In other words not nearly enough to affect or help the cropsThe NEW European Model shows a Much drier map and Hot through next week...THEN a shift in the Heat ridge to the WESTERN US by July 9 -10. The cooler air only gets into the ECB and part of the CCB....it does NOT get into the Plains or the WCB July 4 or 5. By JULY 5 the heat is back over the WCB and CCB and into the ECB JULY 7. The period of JULY 5/6 to 9/10 will see More above to Much above normal temps over the entire Midwest with NO appreciable rain foreseen at this time.
Longer range forecast is similar to what I said this morning and the new Tuesday evening European model supports the idea that the Heat pattern is OVER come July 9 for the ECB and CCB and the cold front looks to bring decent rains to THOSE areas.... BUT OVER THE PLAINS & WCB THIS NEW WEATHER PATTERN-- THE HEAT RIDGE MOVING TO THE ROCKIES ENSURE MORE DRY ( NO rain) WEATHER AND HEAT JULY 9/10 TO JULY 14/15..
DT wxrisk.com