OVERSEAS

Link to MAPS of crop areas Overseas http://wxrisk.com/WTE/samples/regions.htm

11045AM EDT 18 OCTOBER 2007
HEADLINES

AMERICAN MODEL EXTENDS STORMS OVER MINAS GERAIS INTO THE WEEKEND... RAINS OVER SE BRAZIL NEXT WEEK EXPAND NORTH INTO SW BRAZIL BY NEXT WED. EUROPEAN MODEL MUCH DRIER & HOTTER

SOUTH AMERICA

Click on this LINK to see map of ARG and BRAZIL MAIN CROP GROWING AREAS
(COFFEE WHEAT CORN BEANS SUGAR COTTON)

CROP STATUS   ARGENTINA      COTTON    Planting underway.... WINTER WHEAT   heading stage to 9/30
CROP STATUS BRAZIL      COTTON Planting   underway ...        WINTER WHEAT   heading stage to 9/30 ...
SUGAR     harvest now underway ....

Click on this LINK to see map of ARG and BRAZIL MAIN CROP GROWING AREAS
(WHEAT CORN BEANS SUGAR COTTON)

WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY 24 HR RAINFALL        http://wxrisk.com/WTE/todays/sa_24hrpcpn_bw.gif
All of ARG    was dry yesterday as   was Most of   Brazil...

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY RAINFALL      http://wxrisk.com/WTE/todays/sa_24hrpcpn_grid.gif

SATELLITE PICTURE :   To see the latest Satellite pictures Click HERE    Morning satellite pictures shows clear skies over all Eastern and Northern ARG ... HIGH level clouds over se Brazil .

TEMPERATURES saw cool temps over s central ARG -- L 60s over La Pampa and Buenos
Aires S... U 70s to M 80s over central ARG into SE Brazil .... U 80s and L 90s over Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo and near 100 over over Matto Grosso

WXRISK's BRAZIL & ARGENTINA   FORECASTS
WXRISK's BRAZIL & ARGENTINA   FORECASTS

The threat of good rains for eastern Minas Gerais on Friday is still there. But over night    the American model shows TWO important things. First the scattered storms   over far eastern Minas Gerais continues into Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Again the coverage over Minas is NOT great-- maybe 50% of 0.50 to 2.00".       SECOND.... the   heavy rains that develop   early next week over     eastern ARG and   SE Brazil    ( 75% coverage of 1-3 inches) move north into much of Paraguay    as well as    SW Brazil -- meaning    MGDS -- and into Sao Paulo - by next Wednesday.

Clearly this has implications for Brazil Cotton areas   -- see HERE
http://wxrisk.com/WTE/todays/images.htm

However NOT all the data agrees with this.... The euro model dos not have 2 additional days of storms over eastern Minas Gerais Nor does the model have the heavy rains over    SE Brazil moving North... that model takes those storm East out to sea and rapidly rebuilds a major    Heat dome over    sw and central Brazil... more Hot and dry temps and conditions.

Clearly these two weather models are    mutually exclusive... either way the risk for a BUSTED forecast is high so be careful out there.

EUROPE -RUSSIA- UKRAINE

CROP STATUS   RUSSIA      OATS   Harvest    thru   9/15...    CORN   harvest Begins 10/1 ...   WINTER   WHEAT Planting   underway thru 9/30

CROP STATUS UKRAINE OATS   Harvest    thru   9/15...    CORN     now underway harvest
thru 11/10....   WINTER   WHEAT Planting   thru 10/1 .

The morning weather map shows an upper Low located again between Iceland and Scotland... with a strong ridge of high-pressure running from Spain into France the UK and Germany... a large upper low over Italy and Greece... and a new trough or Bend in the Jet stream developing over the Baltic sea and northwest Russia.

There's going to be a titanic struggle across the European continent between that large upper low pressure area between Iceland and Scotland and huge ridge of high-pressure over Western and central Europe. While some rain will get Ireland the UK and western France Mid week for the most part it looks like the weather models are showing that the ridge of High-pressure over Western and central Europe will win out and keep that strong upper Low well off the Irish coast and and stuck near Iceland Thus Western and central Europe stays warm and dry over the next several days with temperatures running much above normal.

The upper low located over Italy and the Balkans will begin to weekend and moving towards the eastern Mediterranean and Turkey. This visual bring significant rain to the Lower Balkans turkey the Black Sea and the caucuses this week. Eventually the trough over Northwest Russia and this upper Low will merge into one fairly strong trough located over Russia and the Black Sea which will provide some cooler temperatures to Russia and Ukraine.

MAPS
click HERE to see map of UKRAINE CORN area
click HERE to see map of UKRAINE SPRING WHEAT area
click HERE to see map of   UKRAINE   WINTER WHEAT area
click HERE to see map of   UKRAINE    OATS
click HERE to see map of   RUSSIAN CORN
click HERE to see map of   RUSSIAN     WHEAT

INDIA -Click HERE to see map of   WXRISK'S INDIA    ZONES

SOYBEANS now in HARVEST stage to 12/10... Southern COTTON now in FLOWERING stage to NOV 1... Northern COTTON   now in FLOWERING stage to OCT 1... BEANS Planting Begins 6/1... WINTER WHEAT   planting Begins 10/1...      KHARIF RICE now in HEADING stage to NOV 1...

Click HERE to see map of INDIA's   CORN region
Click HERE to see map of INDIA's     COTTON regions
Click HERE to see map of   INDIA's     WINTER WHEAT   region
Click HERE to see map of INDIA's    SUGAR region
Click HERE to see map of    INDIA'S   SOYBEANS   region

India looks rather dry and warm all this week with the only significant rain falling over far Southwest portions.

MAP OF WXRISK'S CHINA ZONES
http://wxrisk.com/WTE/cropareas/wte/china.jpg

WINTER WHEAT Planting underway over NCP to 10/31... CORN Harvest underway over northern areas until 10/15 but has ended over southern areas ... COTTON harvest underway through 11/1... BEANS begins Harvest SEPT 1... SPRING WHEAT in NCP Harvest now underway though 8/30

IH - Interior Highlands NCP- North China Plains MCP- Manchurian Plains

Click HERE to see CHINA's    SUGAR   regions
Click HERE to see CHINA's    COTTON regions
Click HERE to see   CHINA's    CORN   regions
Click HERE to see   CHINA's    WINTER   and SPRING WHEAT regions
Click HERE to see   CHINA's    SOYBEAN   regions

In China the super dry pattern we have seen all the last several weeks over the NCP (north China Plains) and MCP (Manchurian China Plains) continues with no letup in sight over the next seven days. Temperatures will continue to run very warm for this time of year as the rather dry conditions are beginning to affect the actual temperatures on a daily basis. There are some indications that the pattern is going to change over the weekend and there may be some strong local fines with better rain chances coming in next week but at this point in time is all rather speculative.

AUSTRALIA

WINTER WHEAT begins HARVEST 10/15... . COTTON Planting to 11/30...

Click HERE to see map of   Australia's    WINTER WHEAT regions
Click HERE to see map of   Australia's   COTTON     regions
Click HERE to see map of   Australia's    SUGAR   regions

In Australia the rather El Niño like weather pattern continues. Strong ridge of high-pressure over central Australia will move southeast towards the eastern coast this week. This will deflect any cold fronts over southeast Australia to the south so this looks like another dry and warm week.