WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE WEEKEND:
It was another near-perfect weekend across most of the Midwest and with nearly ideal conditions along with some very cool temperatures. On Saturday temperatures were mainly in the Upper 70s and L 80s across the entire region... with the Des Moines Iowa reporting a Max temperature of 82 degrees... 84 at Davenport... 85 in St. Louis... 77 Chicago... 82 degrees in Springfield 80 at Indianapolis... and 78 in Columbus Ohio.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/temp_hi.html
From the Saturday night and Sunday morning the system which I talk about last week has brought some rain in portions of the Upper Plains. Coverage was 40-50% as rainfall amounts ranged from 1.58 inches at Aberdeen SD... 1.34 inches at Mitchell SD... 0.27 inches at Custer... In Nebraska the coverage is also very widely scattered with some locations reporting no rain at all but other areas getting heavy rain Ainsworth NEB 0.95 O'Neil 0.40 North Platte 0.22 Greely 0.80" Fairmount 0.12
Today we saw more ideal conditions across most of the Plains and the Midwest with temperatures in the L 80s across the Dakotas and most of Nebraska and mainly in the Upper 70s across the Midwest! Even in the lower Plains temperatures only below 90 degrees in a few places in Texas and Oklahoma and lower Kansas.
This evening Radar see attachment shows Showers and thunderstorms moving across portions of the WCB But the coverage is not impressive --- clearly the coverage is under 50 percent and the Doppler radar amounts are indicating a few areas getting up to 0.50" but most readings reporting under 0.25"
BOTTOM LINE MY forecast for the next 7 days is basically unchanged from the forecast of last Thursday and Friday. However some other forecasts beyond the next seven days are very different from mine because many forecasters are relying far too heavily on the American model . This weather model is significantly different this afternoon and this evening from all the other data beyond six days.
There is widespread forecast consensus on how the week will start off and how things look for the next five or six days. We will start off the week with the trough over the Midwest finally dying and dissipating by Tuesday night and Wednesday. At the surface a large area of high-pressure dropping out of Canada will provide sunny dry conditions across all the Plains and the Midwest Monday Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday a significant buildup of heat will begin appear over the Plains states as the Midwest trough is crushed and we begin to see a linkage between the ridge of High-pressure in the Rockies and the Bermuda High off the East coast.
The problem develops by the time we get to the weekend. The Sunday afternoon and evening American model is simply out of lunch and having a serious problem in figuring out the new pattern. It develops the Dome over the Midwest BUT only for 48 hour period. By next weekend it shows the Dome back into the Rockies and has a massive trough pouring into the eastern portions of the United States including the Midwest with significant rain over the ECB and more below normal temperatures. Even if one was to accept the American model verbatim there would be no significant rain over the Upper Plains or the WCB for the next six or seven days at least.
However the American model Sunday Midday and evening is completely out to lunch here and has no support from any of the model of any kind anywhere on this planet. The midday Canadian model which now runs out to six days (and many forecasters are unaware of this) shows a massive Dome over the Midwest that does not move. The European model for the last several days has been depicting much the same thing with a very powerful dome centered over the Midwest right into August 19-20th. Most of the ensemble data does not support the American model solution either. So does the British model
Because so many forecasters rely heavily on the American model and do not pay attention to what is going on over the weekend like I do they do not seeing inconsistency that the American model has had over the last several runs.
East of the Mississippi River is going to take awhile for the hot temperatures to develop because the ground has been so wet. Even if one or to buy the European British and Canadian model solutions... the ECB will NOT get as Hot as the WCB and the Plains.
I do not see the first 90 degree day occurring in Des Moines or St. Louis until Wednesday at the earliest and perhaps not until Thursday. However what I am certain is that with this large dome over the Midwest setting up from Aug. 14th for the 20th there will be no significant rain over the WCB or the ECB.
Sticking with the maps or pattern as depicted by the European British and Canadian models... the far western portions of the Upper Plains and the Rockies will be the areas most likely to see significant rain late in the weakening the weekend. Moreover in this particular pattern in the Canadian Plains looked to see several chances of significant rain in terms of showers and thunderstorms with a stalled front cutting our across southern Canada and a West east direction for much of the next seven or eight days.
The European Heat wave is ending no doubt about it. On Wednesday and Thursday a major system was across Great Britain and into the low countries as well as the Baltic region bringing with its significant cooling rain to Wales Scotland England the Low countries in northern half of Germany Denmark and lower Scandinavia. The Heat will hold over lower portions of France Spain and Lower Germany and the western Balkans for another day but a new trough comes blasting into Spain and France on the 16th and 17th which will end the heat wave. Thus even though you may be seen news reports that there's no end in sight for the extreme heat in Europe that is just media hype.
In South America the dry pattern holds with a major storm system moving off the Southeast coast of Brazil early this week... followed by a new ridge of high-pressure building into northern Chile Northern Argentina and Southwest Brazil. Thus I see no significant rain in Northern Argentina or southern or central sections of Brazil for next seven or eight days