| US GRAINS AREAS Click on Map for Larger Image |
LIVESTOCK AREAS Click on Map for Larger Image |
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WXRISK'S GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS
| US GRAINS AREAS Click on Map for Larger Image |
LIVESTOCK AREAS Click on Map for Larger Image |
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| RED SPRING WHEAT | HARD RED WHINTER WHEAT | SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT | WHITE WINTER WHEAT |
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| COTTON | CORN | OATS | SOYBEANS |
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WXRISK'S OVERSEAS REGIONS
click on maps to make them larger
SOUTH
AMERICA AUSTRALIA RUSSIA/
UKRAINE
INDIA
CHINA
click HERE for US CROP AREAS
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| GROWING LOCATIONS | ARGENTINA | BRAZIL |
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| COTTON | Argentina CORN | Argentina SOYBEANS | Argentina WHEAT |
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| BRAZIL | |||||
| SUGAR | COTTON | CORN | SOYBEANS | WHEAT | COFFEE |
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| WINTER WHEAT | SPRING WHEAT | CENTRAL ASIA | RUSSIAN CORN | RUSSIAN WHEAT | FSU COTTON |
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| UKRAINE CORN | UKRAINE SPRING WHEAT | UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT | UKRAINE OATS |
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| INDIA ZONES | CORN | COTTON | WINTER WHEAT | SUGAR | SOYBEANS |
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| SUGAR | COTTON | CORN | WHEAT | SOYBEAN |
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WHAT ARE " THE ENSEMBLES" & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT?.
Weather models are based on something called GRID points. A Weather Model are is essentially a elaborate game of CONNECT the dots!. Each of these grid points or "Dots" represents data that goes into the weather model's equation and programs. The closer the dots are together... the better the data and the more likely it is for the Weather model to be close to reality. This data comes from weather balloons pilot reports satellite data etc
That is why we call them weather "MODELS". There is always going to be some data that does NOT get into the computer and model equations. So the Models have to ESTIMATE what the missing data is. Sometimes these estimates are really good.... and sometimes they are really bad. For instance over the Pacific Ocean there are few land stations to report Real data so the models have to use satellite reports and estimated data to fill in the blanks or gaps.
Now suppose one day the American model shows Big storm developing over the northern Pacific Ocean in 2 or 3 days and hitting Seattle in 6 days. The first model run is called the OPERATIONAL model. No matter what solution a particular weather model might come up with... the weather forecaster must ask himself what is the reliability of weather scenario the models is depicting ? The best and oldest known way for a froecaster to so is to see IF the weather model "solution" makes meteorological sense..
But back in the 1990s with the rise of advanced computers that it was realized that you can use the new computing power to run the same model over and over again. The result is a spread of solutions not just one. Hence the term "ENSEMBLE" . So forecasters might have 20 versions or MEMBERS of the American or Canadian weather models along with the operational Model run.
Now lets go back to that hypothetical storm that the model shows hitting Seattle in 6 days. With the Ensemble models a forecaster can now compare the Operational Weather Model to the other 20 members. This gives a forecaster a degree of certianty and probablity that did NOT exists before. Thus in our case.... while the Operational Model shows the Big Low pressure area hitting Seattle in 6 days.... we might have 10 other versions of the ensemble show NO Low pressure at all... and 8 versions show only a weak cold front. Thus a weather forecaster can say with Much higher confidence that it is unlikely a Big storm will hit Seattle in 6 days.
The American model ENSEMBLE has 21 members and is run twice a day out to 16 days... but the grid point resolution is not the best. It is undergoing an upgrade. The Canadian Model also has an ensemble which features 17 members that run out to 10 days but it is only run once in the early morning hours. The European weather model ensemble has 51 members and has the best resolution of any of the Medium range weather models and is available in the pre-dawn hours The Navy model has a 9 member ensemble out to 10 days and is run once in the early morning.