SAMPLE     WTE     NEWSLETTERS    FOR   2008   CONUS   & 
OVERSEAS    GROWING    SEASONS

The WEATHER TRADERS EDGE newsletter is the fast growing source for weather information in the Grain Coffee and Energy trading world today. During the Peak season (APRIL 1 to OCT 30) the Newsletter has 3 levels of service for you to choose: BASIC ADVANCED and ULTIMATE. Each level of service provides more information and with more updates. Remember that with the WTE no long term commitment is required. If you so wish service can be renewed every month or cancelled whenever you wish.

BASIC WTE  ($75/ month) - It consists of :

• SUNDAY EARLY EVENING Bulletin.......... Click Here    see   sample of  Sunday  evening   Report
• "1st CALL"  MORNING REPORT.............. Click    Here to see    SAMPLE  of   1st call   Report
• MIDDAY  REPORT...................................... Click    Here   to see a sample  of  MIDDAY    REPORT

ADVANCED WTE-  ($100/ month) . It consists of

• SUNDAY EARLY EVENING Bulletin.
   
•  Daily VOICE EMAIL REPORT        ( this is  a email  Voice recording   sent to you by  email . When you  click  on the attachment   it plays
  You MUST have High speed cable     (such as Cable    T1 or DSL) for this to work    
  click here to listen to sample   ----->       http://wxrisk.com/WTE/samples/sample.wav
• "1st CALL"     EARLY MORNING REPORT   
• MIDDAY   REPORT   
• The EVENING Bulletin JUNE 1-    SEPT  15.    Click  Here to see  sample of     EVENING   Bulletin 

• and your choice either
• OVERSEAS (china ...Brazil Coffee India Russia ) FORECASTS     OR       30 DAY US FORECAST issued once a week .

Click   HERE    to  see   Sample of  OVERSEAS                   

ULTIMATE WTE- ($150/ month)  . It consists of

• SUNDAY EARLY EVENING Bulletin...  
• Daily VOICE EMAIL REPORT        ( this is  a email  Voice recording   sent to you by  email . When you  click  on the attachment   it plays
  You MUST have High speed cable     (such as Cable    T1 or DSL) for this to work.  
  click here to listen to sample   ----->   http://wxrisk.com/WTE/samples/sample.wav
• "1ST CALL"   EARLY MORNING REPORT 
• MIDDAY   REPORT 
• The   EVENING    REPORT 
• OVERSEAS FORECASTS    
• 30 DAY  forecast  Issued  WEEKLY 
• SEASONAL FORECASTS  that go out to 6 months................... Click  here to see a  Sample of    SEASONAL   FORECASTS

WHAT ARE THE ENSEMBLE & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT?.

Weather models are based on something called GRID points.    A Weather Model  are is essentially a elaborate game of CONNECT the dots!.    Each of these grid points or "Dots"      represents data that goes into the weather model's equation and programs. The closer the dots are together... the better the data and the more likely it is for the Weather model to be close to reality.    This data comes from weather balloons pilot reports satellite data etc

That is why we call them   weather    "MODELS".     There is always going to be some data that does NOT get into the computer and model equations. So the Models have to ESTIMATE what the missing data is. Sometimes these estimates are really good.... and sometimes they are really bad. For instance over the Pacific Ocean there are few land stations to report Real data so the models have to use satellite reports and estimated data to fill in the blanks or gaps.

Now suppose one day the American model shows Big storm developing over the northern Pacific Ocean in 2 or 3 days and hitting Seattle in 6 days. The first model run is called the OPERATIONAL model.   No matter what    solution    a  particular  weather model might come    up with... the weather forecaster must ask himself what is the reliability of weather scenario the models is depicting ?     The best and oldest known way  for a  forecaster to  so  is to see IF  the weather model  "solution"   makes meteorological sense..

But back in the 1990s with the rise of advanced computers that it was realized that you can use the new computing power to run the same model over and over again. The result is a spread of solutions not just one.   Hence the term "ENSEMBLE" . So  forecasters    might have  20 versions or MEMBERS of the American or Canadian weather models   along with the operational Model run.

Now lets go back to that hypothetical storm that the model shows hitting Seattle in 6 days. With the Ensemble models   a forecaster can now compare the Operational Weather Model to the other 20 members. This gives a forecaster a degree of certainty and probability that did NOT exists before. Thus in our case.... while the Operational Model shows the Big Low pressure area hitting Seattle in 6 days....   we might  have 10 other versions of the ensemble show NO Low  pressure at all... and 8 versions show only a weak cold front.    Thus a  weather forecaster can say with Much higher confidence that it is unlikely a Big storm will hit Seattle in 6 days.

The American model ENSEMBLE has 21 members and is run twice a day out to 16 days... but the grid point resolution is not the best. It is undergoing an upgrade. The Canadian Model also has an ensemble which features 17 members that run out to 10 days but it is only run once in the early morning hours. The European weather model ensemble has 51 members and has the best resolution of any of the Medium range weather models and is available in the pre-dawn hours The Navy model has a 9 member ensemble out to 10 days and is run once in the early morning.