WHY THE WEATHER TRADER

WHY THE WEATHER TRADER'S EDGE NEWSLETTER IS UNIQUE

The Focus of WxRisk.Com is on the most overlooked aspect of weather forecasting – the Extended Range (referred to as the ER) and Medium Range (referred to as the MR) weather forecasts. The ER Forecast covers the period from 48 hours to 5 days while the MR Forecast covers the period from Day 5 to Day 10. At WxRisk, you will see no "GOLF" or SAIILING forecasts or direct links to radar or satellite pictures.

For Ag Commodities that are weather dependent such as Corn... Wheat... Soybeans... Oats... OJ... Coffee...Cotton... and Energy Traders, WxRisk.com has developed a very popular product called WEATHER TRADERS’S EDGE (WTE) and it is drawing rave reviews from professional and part time traders alike.

HOW IS WEATHER TRADERS’ EDGE DIFFERENT?

First Weather Trader’s Edge Newsletter does not provide you with trading advice. I am NOT a trader or a CTA and in all honesty, you probably know more about trading than I do. As you will see below, Weather Trader’s Edge is probably the best forecast product out there for traders.

It is the position of WxRisk.Com that by taking or recommending certain trading positions... that weather forecasters and their forecasts develop a bias. Quite frankly I do not see how some of these other large Private Weather Service Information Providers (known as PWSIPs) avoid a conflict of interest between their forecasts and some of their trading positions. The fact is once a weather forecaster has taken a position on what, when, or how to trade they often have a bias when it comes making a change to a weather forecast.

In order to understand the advantage of Weather Trader’s Edge... one must first understand how Extended Range (ER) and Medium Range (MR) forecasts are prepared and by whom.

In the Trading Markets, there are a few large well-known PWSIPs that have a great deal of name recognition. What they tell their large trading houses carries a lot of weight. The other driving force that has to be recognized is the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) which is a branch of the National Weather Service (NWS). These office issues the 6 to 10 day and 8-14 day long range weather forecasts daily at 3-4 PM EST.

For many years the only weather model that forecasters could use was the American model which is known as the "GFS" . This weather model started running back in the early 1980s. This model comes out about 4 TIMES A DAY ( every 6 hours) and it is very well known by meteorologists and weather hobbyists alike. The GFS model has a notorious but well deserved reputation for being rather unreliable by showing wild swings in the run to run consistency and is the PRIMARY REASON why so many people... both professional meteorologists and layman... hold the opinion that accurate weather forecasts are not possible beyond 3 days.

However several years ago the European Center for Medium Range Forecast (ECMWF) which is headquartered in England... began issuing a medium range forecast model that was a major improvements over the forecasts based on the GFS..

Of more significance are the major advancements in computing power.. which has enabled scientists to develop many more models and some of them are quite good. Among them are the Canadian model (GGEM)... the MM5.... the British Model ("Ukmet")... the Navy Model and the new Korean Model just to name a few.

In addition the quality of weather forecasts from 48 hours out to 10 days has made a huge leap since 1993 with the development of a new technique called "Ensemble Forecasting"... Let say the American weather model says it is going to rain in Chicago seven days from now. But is that accurate? Did the model miss something? The basic idea in Ensemble forecasting says that by running a weather model 9...12... or 17... times a cycle, meteorologists can develop higher confidence in the forecasts. So if 2 versions of a weather model says its going to rain in Chicago in seven days but 12 versions show no rain… its likely that it is NOT going to rain.

OK… science lesson over. Weather Trader’s Edge is qualitative improvement over most weather forecasts in that I know how to use these new forecast techniques and technologies. Most of the PWSIPs are issue forecasts for Ag and Energy traders have little or NO experience or understanding of these new models and their abilities. They are not skillful with regard Ensemble forecasting techniques.

If you subscribe to one of these well known PWSIPs... go on line and read their discussions. They consist of "the American Model says that..." and rarely are other weather models mentioned.

This lack of experience, training and knowledge in these new weather forecast models has several implications.

These large PWSIPs are using faulty information to drive the markets with weather forecasts that are often faulty themselves. A Classic example of this is the now infamous SUMMER drought of 2000 that was suppose to send grain prices through the roof. Instead, prices collapsed and no drought showed up until August. Many folks lost tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars by relying on weather forecast that were issued by these PWSIPs that used old, out dated weather models. WxRisk achieved national recognition by going strongly against the drought forecast.
When these forecasts have to be altered, changed, or upgraded these large PWSIPs call up their clients and quickly issue new forecasts right away. Middle and smaller size Trading firms as well as the individual investor find out about these changed forecasts at the end of the day after the trading sessions have ended. In other words you are the last to know but the first to LOSE money.

Weather Trader’s Edge is becoming a new force in the trading markets because I am sick and tired of Middle and smaller size Trading firms as well as the individual investor trying to play the game against the system.

Weather Trader’s Edge is here to change to the rules. Weather Trader’s Edge is more than just an extended weather forecast. It includes a review of the various weather models, which ones are most likely to be correct as well as what all the other better known or larger PWSIPs (Private Weather Service Information Providers) are telling their clients or will be telling their clients.

In addition to using the new forecasting models and technology I also provide you with information about what these other PWSIPs are saying. The plain truth is that the forecasts from these other larger and better-known PWSIPs drive the market and I don’t. Not yet anyway. Every issue of Weather Trader’s Edge has a review of what the other large PWSIPs are saying, whether their forecasts are going to be right or wrong and what your position you MAY wish to have when or if these other forecasts go belly up.

Weather Trader’s Edge has 3 levels of service... BASIC ADVANCED and ULTIMATE... depending on what YOUR needs. To see what each level of service consists of Click HERE