WINTER FORECAST PREVIEW 2014 -15

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,SEASONAL FORECASTS | Monday 20 October 2014 4:30 pm

20 OCTOBER  2014   1215   HOURS   EDT

there are  two  link for  you to  look at  …

FIRST  if you   just want the   General forecast  …without too much science …..(  for a business  person   or  lay person )  click HERE

PRELIM long Winter preview 2014-2015SHORT

 

BUT if    you  want the   SERIOUS    meteorology    then this  LINK is for  you
PRELIM long Winter preview 2014-2015

WINTER FORECAST 2013-14 IS FINALLY HERE

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,SEASONAL FORECASTS,WINTER 2013-14 | Saturday 16 November 2013 9:51 pm

 

STARDATE   201311.16

 

After a  week   to 10 days  of delays    the  WINTER 2013-14  FORECAST is finally here.      You will see I have made   2   forecasts.

 

If  you are  NOT a    meteorologist  or  a serious weather geek…  if you want the General forecast  without being overwhelmed by too much Science    then Please  view this

GENERAL FORECAST  PRESENTATION       WINTER13-14short

(These  presentations  will take a second  or two to download  …  and when  they  download  …click  to view the  presentation )

IF on the other  hand  you are   a meteorologist…   a student of Meteorology….   and or  a  SERIOUS weather Geek  and want to be  slammed with hard science and analysis

then  PLEASE      USE THIS  LINK FOR    DETAILED  FORECAST    PRESENTATION    ( 70 slides long. !!! ) …    WINTER13-14

IF you Just  want to  see the Maps….. click on the THUMBNAILS

SPRING FORECAST 2013

Posted by wxrisk | SEASONAL FORECASTS | Wednesday 13 March 2013 12:08 am

SPRING  FORECAST   2013

EARLY IDEAS ON WINTER 2012-13

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,SEASONAL FORECASTS | Saturday 20 October 2012 7:13 pm

 

WINTER 2012 -2013 PRELIMINARY   IDEAS

 

 NON    WEATHER   GEEK  WINTER 2012 -2013  PRELIMINARY   FORECAST

 

 

 

SPRING 2012 FORECAST

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,SEASONAL FORECASTS | Saturday 17 March 2012 11:27 am

If  I had   my    wishes I would of  released  it  in late  FEB   or MARCH 1  … but that is Just not possible.

 some of you may to  have to  COPY  and patse this link 

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/SPRING2012/SPRING2012public.htm

FINAL WINTER FORECAST

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,SEASONAL FORECASTS | Sunday 4 December 2011 8:46 pm

4  DEC    1600  EST  …

 

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/WINTER1112/WINTER1112version1.htm

**** PRELIMINARY WINTER FORECAST 2011-12 ***

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,SEASONAL FORECASTS | Monday 10 October 2011 1:18 pm

  1530   SUNDAY     OCT   9  2011

  this  should    link will  take  you to a page  where    a   MICROSOFT    Power Point  opens  up  …

http://tinyurl.com/6gjhx5o

 

 

if you   LIKE   the  effort  and forecast   etc    dont forget  to hit the   DONATE   button    on the     FACEBOOK wxrisk page   or on the  WEB SITE  itself

    Tons of NEW  stuff coming out  soon…
     WXRISK    SHIRTS  and   S.E.C.S.   (sexy)  snowstorms     newsletters that you  can  subscribe too .. not sure   of the prices   yet

PRELIMINARY WINTER FORECAST 2011-12

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,SEASONAL FORECASTS | Thursday 29 September 2011 10:35 pm

WILL  BE  PRESENTED   HERE….  for the  General  Public… for the 1st time 

  You DO have to  to  register for this   events.   IF     you have  a  Chesterfield County Public Library card that has a PIN   then you can register online at www.library.chesterfield.gov or   you can  Bon Air Library at 804-320-2461 .      If you do NOT   have a    Chesterfield Library   card     then call to reserev  your spot .
Seating is somewhat limited…

2ND HALF OF SUMMER 2011

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,SEASONAL FORECASTS | Wednesday 20 July 2011 8:07 pm

20 JULY    1800 EDT

We are reaching a turning point in the overall  Summer 2011  pattern.     There have there been some significant changes over the last few weeks which are increasing the threat for a substantially hotter and drier second half of the  Summer 2011 then what my original Summer forecast  predicted.   But this is more than just my forecast:   it also means that the official Summer forecast from the CPC   (climate prediction center)   as well as most other private forecast services   — all of which  forecasted a  cooler and   wet  Summer  over the Midwest –  are also going to be in trouble .

My job as a grain and energy meteorologist is not to continue to insist that my forecast might end up  verifying after all …. as  if there is some sort of  meteorological  miracle  that MIGHT happen.  If  I am going to be wrong    then  my job is to see where I am wrong …figure out what’s happening …and to tell you with the correct or updated forecast.   In other words my job is not to blow smoke of my own ASS.
So for the  Summer it has been a rather  cool Summer for much of the upper Plains and the Midwest.  For example Des  Moines Iowa  through   JUNLY  13   has seen   8  days  with a Max temperature above  90°…  Chicago has had 9 days with a Max temperature above 90….°Indianapolis 11 days…  And Lincoln Nebraska 13 days.  Given that it is now almost the midpoint of the Summer   –July 15 –    it is safe to say that   so far we have NOT seen  a lot of heat and if things don’t change soon this lack of heat is going to cause real problems with respect to  GDD.

   THE    WXRISK   2011  SUMMER FORECAST…. HAS BUDTED or  WILL Bust for JULY  and AUGUST 

This was  the  KEY premise   of  my forecast for the Summer of 2011 has to do with   SOIL  MOSITURE  snd excessively   wet   areas  over the Upper Plains and  all of Midwest  that  developed and  INCREASE  in MARXCH APRIL and MAY 2011. 
Essentially my contention was that the large areas of very wet or super saturated ground conditions over the upper Plains and the Midwest was going to restrict or become very resistant to any sort of sustained heat dome or heat ridge pattern developing over the Midwest.     This link will take you back to the Summer 2011 forecast…   so you may READ it in detail
These next couple of images show the RAINFALL  RELATIVE TO NORMAL  for the month of MAY and for the month of JUNE  2011.  As you can see MAY 2011  as a very wet month across most of the central and upper Plains and the Midwest with large areas seeing anywhere from 200 to 500% above normal rainfall.

The month of JUNE 2011 was not quite as wet but there was still large areas of  wet conditions over portions of the Dakotas and the WCB into Central Illinois.

These images supported of my contention that  as  long as the Summer of 2011   saw   saturated  or  super saturated  ground conditions …it  was going to be very difficult to get sustained heat into the Upper Plains and the Midwest and therefore we would have GDD problems.
So far so good.

However over the last two weeks there  has  been a significant change in the pattern which  has turned things dramatically drier.  During the July 4 weekend we had a short burst of  mpressive heat over portions of the Plains  and Midwest.  It only lasted two with three days but it effectively began to dry out the pattern.     This image shows the total rainfall relative to normal over the nation in the last 14 days since June 30.  As you can see things are dramatically drier across all of the upper plains and the Midwest with large areas seeing only 25 to 50% of normal rainfall over the last two weeks. 

         

This combined with seasonally warm temperatures has pulled a lot of moisture out of the ground and allow things to dry up.  At this point however we have not seen a lot of heat.
That is why this upcoming heat wave or heat interval from July 15/16  to July23/ 24 is going to be so important.  Not only will this heat dome bring a lot of impressive  heat  but more importantly it is  going to continue to pull a lot of moisture out of the ground and allow things to dry out even faster.  For some of the wet  areas in the upper Plains that  is  a bad thing and  they   certainly could use the heat.  But this heat dome which is coming up for next week has longer term implications.

This up coming   Heat Dome  means that the soils will continue to dry out and by the time we get to the end of JULY the maps showing rainfall anomalies will be even MORE  Below Normal  than they are now.     This much drier ground over large areas of the Plains  and the Midwest will set the stage for August and the potential for more significant heat ridge  /  Heat domes   to come north from the drought areas of the lower Plains into the heart of the Midwest.  That  is what is really important   about    this upcoming heat dome.  It  is  going cause a lot of drying and a lot of crop stress   AND  also set the stage for more potential trouble for the late corn and beans in August over both the eastern and western corn belt areas.

SUMMER 2011 FORECAST

Posted by wxrisk | SEASONAL FORECASTS | Friday 27 May 2011 11:51 pm

summer  2011  US  forecast   with  HURRICANE

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summer 2011   US   GRAIN  Weather  forecast    and   Overseas 

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