12Z EURO ENSEMBLES… 11/24/13
For 8 CONSECUTIVE runs of the EURO ENSEMBLES it has shown the same thing.. a low Tracking waaaay INland … west of Over I-95 . This new model run makes it
9 STRAIGHT RUNS showing the same thing
BIG LOW on the coast very warm on the coastal Plains significant mountain snows .. HIGH WINDS over Ohio valley and Appalachian mountains.. AS you can see it is NOT out to sea…
come 11/27 you remember these maps and see which solution was / is correct
0z NOV 24 GFS RUN shifts back way to the north.. *** first Low comes HUNDREDS of miles “up” the coast. Yes its Mostly rain for all of the big I-95 cities but the Low is NOT forced out to sea.
The 2nd LOW still does however… but this is yet ANOTHER new different GFS solution.
*** 12z MODELS NOVEMBER 24 ****
Here is the 12z 11/24 run of the ECMWF … the model continues to show the inland track. Because of the Terrible Upepr air — 500 MB – features / pattern over eastern Canada the Inland track of the Low is LIKELY to verify . MILD air surges in on S or SE winds from the coas r to the mountains. This STRONGLY implies for eastern New England and NYC . If anything the euro may be too far inland BUT the 12z 11/24 CMC is showing this as well… as is the new British model
Here is the 12z GFS run for NOVEMBER 24.
This image shows you how …once again the GFS… just 18 hours ago (Sunday 18z GFS run) had the Main Low off the SC coast… headed out to sea. But now that the event is LESS THAN 84 HRS AWAY suddenly the wretched GFS gets a clue… and now shows the Main Low more than 600 miles further up the coast.
And lets be clear about this. Over the past 2 days ONLY the GFS has showed the solution of the southern Low going out to sea. The CMC ( Canadian) NEVER had this idea nor did the British or Navy or of course the European Model never did . Thus… when I say …” when it comes to EAST COAST LOWS / the op GFS is a CRAPPY Model PAST 84 HRS…”
I am NOT making this up. Been doing this a LOOOONG time
STAR DATE 201311.23
I know to many it seems like I bash the GFS incessantly for no reason but today’s 12Z GFS run is so screwed up and so amazingly BAD I think it fully justifies my commemts & disdain for it when it comes to forecasting East Coast winter storms past 84 hours. Over the last 8 model runs of the operational GFS the model has shown 8 vastly & totally different solutions. IF one dsicards the op GFS runs…. this is an EASY Forecast
HERE IS THE 12Z SATURDAY GFS . It now separates the two Low pressure areas that develop on the Gulf coast / southeast on Tuesday. The first one moves off the NC Coast bringing rain only to a small portion of the Middle Atlantic and its 100% dry NORTH of DCA. The 2nd Low is DELAYED.. why we dont know… which allows for the arctic HIGH to move in from the Great Lakes whch drives actic air to back into MD VA NC . Thus when the second Low moves ENE it brings a substantial snowstorm to northern NC and much of central and Southern VA. The snow never reaches Washington, DC according to this particular model and it slides harmlessly off the coast.
This next image explains WHY the GFS does this. The GFS has a well known and well documented BIAS where the southern stream systems or southern low pressure areas get flattened or crushed by the northern stream.
And as we can see from this image that is exactly what happens with this particular run of the operational GFS here on Saturday
This image shows the snow storm that the model is producing for western and North Western North Carolina as well as Southern Virginia. Its Bullshit.
Fortunately NCEP does RUN a version of the GFS were the bias of the model is removed. And this is available on various websites for individuals look at and consider. This image shows what happens when you take out this
bias or problem that the operational GFS has. As you can see when you remove the bias from the GFS we end up getting a large strong well l organize LOW pressure area over eastern NC that does come up the coast. This is a very close match to the European the Canadian the British model
Now is take a look of the afternoon European model. It remains very consistent in the overall sense but there are some differences. The EURO actually phases the two pieces of energy a little earlier which allows the LOW to
come up the coast… ON the coast. We can see WHY the European models bring the system a little further closer to a coast and is so much warmer. The phasing occurs a little sooner and is very strong the model and that pulls the coastal low into the coast.
This drives in very mild temperatures as far north as New York City and often with temperatures rising on Wednesday into the 50s if this model is correct. It still brings in a significant snowstorm to most of the Appalachians but for all of the Piedmont and coastal areas from NC to Maine this is a rain storm….according to the European
This image shows the BIIIIG amount of rainfall that the European model vs. say the operational and crap the GFS. If you look of the rainfall maps from the Canadian and the British model they also show very similar rainfall amounts and once again only the operational GFS shows the out to sea solution.
This is the European model snowfall maps…. with the left map showing total snow fall and the map on the right hand side showing the actual snowfall accumulations. If this was the heart of winter there be areas in the western portions of Virginia the mountains like homestead for example eastern portions a West Virginia and Western Maryland which would see over 18 inches of snow. But it is not the heart of winter yet. To snow ratio accumulations over the mountains are going to be very tricky for the first portion of the storm.
This is the British model which showing the same sort of thing.
SUMMARY .,.. Although all there were few which continue to insist that the operational GFS is viable the fact that the corrected unbiased version of the GFS shows a solution identical to that of the European Canadian and British models is proof positive that the operational 12z Saturday GFS solution is crap. There is still the issue whether not the rain might END as snow over the I-95 big cities to be decided. But again 85 to 95% this event from central and Eastern North Carolina all the way into Eastern Maine is going to be rain. If the precipitation begins early enough Western North Carolina and southwest Virginia could see some ice at the very beginning of the event for the warm air surges.
FIRST GUESS MAP OUT SUNDAY
After a good night’s sleep we can briefly review he overnight models and see where we stand with regard to the coastal event for November 27 – 28.
First stop is the 0z GFS. The 0z GFS continues to show a very wet system developing for much of the Deep south which reaches as far north as Washington, DC with the northern edge of the precipitation shield. But the model only takes the Low half way up the coast and slides the LOW off the Carolina Coast passing east of Cape Hatteras. When this sort of track actually occurs ….it’s never very good sign with respect to getting heavy precipitation into the big cities the northeast. The problem is of course that the GFS loves to do this with East Coast winter storms and many times it turns out to be completely wrong. This image shows the 0Z Thursday run of the GFS … and of course it is taking the system off the North Carolina Coast after bringing a very heavy rains too much of the Tennessee Valley and the southeastern states as well as Virginia and southern WVA.
If we take the model verbatim… there would be no reason to forecast any significant precipitation north of the MD /P A State line so areas such as Philly NJ NYC and New England would be dry. There could be significant snows over eastern KY the southern and eastern portions WVA the Blue ridge mountains & the Shenandoah Valley in western VA /sw VA and maybe into nw NC mtns.
This next image shows the low level cold air getting into the system on Thanksgiving morning which changes the rain over snow even into Central Virginia and eastern MD.
The 6Z GFS continues this trend without showing much of a change. As we can see here the 6z GFS continues to take this system off the Carolina Coast after dropping widespread heavy rains over much of the Deep south the TN Valley and into portions of VA …southern MD & DEL. On this image the thick blue line is the rain snow line. Notice here the even though the system stays to the south the leading edge of the cold air (thick blue line ) does NOT get past the I-95 corridor. The reason for this Hass to do with the upper air pattern which remains hostile for a East Coast snowstorm event.
This is why having a -NAO is important. This is why having a -AO is important. This is why having the cold air in place before the event begins is important. This is why having a 50/50 Low over southeastern Canada is important. It is these features which allow the cold air to get into the storm so that the precipitation falls as snow . And in this particular instance we don’t have any of that.
Interestingly the Canadian model agrees the GFS. This image shows the Canadian model which is slower than the European and closely matches the 0z and 6z GFS… with the Low over the eastern Carolinas and the closed UPPER Low over GA 7:00 PM on November 27. By Thursday morning the LOW is off the coast NC headed out to sea but we can clearly see that the cold air has rushed intoall of VA — even the coastal areas and this strongly implies the rain going over snow for several hours over portions of central VA and central MD. On the other hand this also would imply a Significant snowstorm for portions of Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee over the higher terrain as well as much of western and southwestern VA and eastern WVA.
Let’s take a look at the 0z Thurs European model (ECWMF). This image gives us the large scale view of the European. The map on the left hand side is valid for 7:00 PM Tuesday evening which is a bit faster than the other models. We can see the developing area of low pressure over central GA and the Arctic front racing the southward across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and western New England. The map on the right hand side is for 7:00 PM Wednesday evening . The European model says the entire event is over and done with by that time and the arctic air is racing southward . The rain goes over snow fairly quickly the mountains of WVA western MD & western VA were several inches could accumulate and this continues up into much of central and eastern PA and NY State as well as the interior portions of New England.
Behind the Low the European model is showing that the heart of this Arctic air mass moves into the Northeastern U.S. on thanksgiving night with howling North winds and bitter cold temperatures. Right now the other models are not showing this sort of cold air invasion.
The 0z THURS EURO ENSEMBLE – clearly supports the operational run. It shows the area of low pressure Wednesday evening 7:00 PM over GA extending from AL GA FL SC all the way into New England and Maine along the old station are cold front . The model clearly shows the rain going over to snow in the mountains of eastern WVA far western VA central PA western & central MD eastern NY states and the western half of New England. In these areas the European ENSEMBLE implies at least a few inches of snow accumulating Wednesday afternoon and evening. The rain ends as snow over eastern KY western NC AND over central VA Eastern Maryland including Washington, DC and Baltimore as well as Philly NJ NYC and Eastern New England.
Finally if we take a look at the British model which only goes out to 6 days…. We can see that the model clearly shows a developing coastal low over GA / FL panhandle and the arctic front driving through the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Clearly the southern LOW is going to come up the coast to some degree but how far north we cannot tell on this run iof the BR Model.
SUMMARY I reject the southern Low track/ scenario of the 0z and 6Z GFS that keeps most the precipitation out of the big cities in the northeast. Even if we were to accept the GFS scenario this would strongly implies significant snowstorm for the mountains of the Middle Atlantic states and rain for the Piedmont and the coastal areas. And this rain could end as snow as both the GFS and CMC models strongly support this idea.
However I think the European and the European ensemble is far more likely to be correct. I think the rain will break north eastward up the front pretty quickly laid on Tuesday and Tuesday night. And the arctic cold front will drive south and east. This looks a lot to me like a major Appalachian snowstorm from Western North Carolina all we into the western portions of New England. And it does look to be like the rain will and as snow for least a few hours over central portions of Northern North Carolina Virginia including Richmond Fredericksburg and Lynchburg the Washington, DC Baltimore area and even into Philly Northern NJ and NYC.
If one chooses to run with the European then we have to consider that the Thursday morning Thanksgiving will be an extremely cold morning with snow on the ground ove the mountains / interior and strong North winds coming straight out of Eastern Canada. Thanksgiving would be a brutally cold a and Friday morning could be extremely cold for all those twisted pervert black Friday shopping freaks.
The early Tuesday morning run of (0z 11/19) of the operational European model is developing a early season significant snowstorm for portions of the CENTRAL Appalachian and into much of Virginia Northern North Carolina and Maryland. I am not optimistic that this scenario being shown by the European model but there is a possibility that this sort of scenario could work out. Let’s take a look.
This first image shows the operational European SURFACE map with 850 mb temps ( 850MB= 1 mile above the ground). On November 26 we can see LOW pressure developing over Georgia on an stalled cold front that is situated across the Southeastern states. There is a new Arctic cold front driving across the Ohio Valley headed towards the East Coast. By NOV 27 the arctic cold front has slammed into the East Coast and the area of LOW w pressure over Georgia has moved off the North Carolina Coast. Notice here that the LOW is NOT coming up the East Coast but instead headed out to sea off the North Carolina Coast. This sort of track is a classic Virginia and North Carolina and Maryland snow storm track but not favorable Track for the Northern Middle Atlantic or New England . ** THIS IS WHAT THE EURO MODEL IS SHOWING … IT IS NOT MY FORECAST **
These next image shows the significant snowfall being shown by the early morning European model. We can see in a large image on the left there is a band of significant snow of 4-8″ across them high terrain of KY and over interior southeast PA from Harrisburg to Philly into central and northern NH and NYC. The model produces 12″ over the mountains of West Virginia and the Shenandoah and 4-8″ over Central Virginia.
WHY IS THE EURO DOING THIS ?
These three maps show why the European models developing this early season winter storm for the Middle Atlantic region. The text of the map is pretty self explanatory; what happens to essentially is at the upper Low w over Texas comes east but it does NOT phase ( merge) with the northern piece of energy in the northern jet stream. If that were to happen .. then we be looking at a rain storm because the upper air patterns over central and Eastern Canada and Greenland are not favorable for a classic East Coast snowstorm situation.
Indeed that is very much what the Canadian model is showing. The Canadian model does phase the two pieces of energy so the southern LOW pressure area comes inland …further north and the cold air is kept back over the Great Lakes. As you can see from the Canadian model is showing that the the rain snow line at 850 mb is way too far to the north for anybody in the big cities of the northeast to see snowfall from this system. The only snow according to the Canadian model would fall over the mountains of the Northeast .
Interestingly the 0Z GFS has no system at all. By that I mean to say that the 0Z GFS had no southern LOW pressure area whatsoever. However the 6z GFS does ‘ SEE” the southern Upper Low and the southern surface Low. In this case the 6Z Gfs has a significant area of Low pressure off the Carolina Coast but … again becuase the 6z GFS Model “Phases” the southern piece of energy and northern piece of energy into one big system ….all the cold air is kept way back over the Midwest and the Great Lakes . As result all the precipitation across the middle Atlantic states even in the mountains falls as rain mostly on Friday, November 29.
SUMMARY … If the European model was depicting this same sort of potential event in late December January or February …I would be barking like a cheao Junk yard dog. In addition the concern I have is that the cold air is NOT in place at the start event which means that we have to get the cold air into the Middle Atlantic states just in the nick of time when the precipitation begins. Those sorts of scenarios often don’t work out for numbered as reasons. It’s a possibility but not a high probability event.