1700 EST  FEB 18 , 20012… STARDATE   201202.18

I am hoping that by  the end of this storm will go into  the record books  and  with  people …   as another  considerable    success   for me   and  WXRISK.COM .  From back in beginning of the week I  was very cautious in declaring that this was going to be a all rain event.  Initially that sort of assertion bought a lot of ridicule with one of the Richmond TV meteorologists saying     ”That contrary to some omission may have heard this week and storms going to be all rain”

This afternoon that same TV station of course had to carry the NWS  3 to 6″   and Winter Storm watches.

Opps!

Its NOT Luck or  hype or  happenstance that this  event has       broekn my  way.   My  reluctance in the declaring this an   “all rain”    event early in the week   was  based upon a extremely well known history or climatology of Virginia Maryland North Carolina snowstorms.  Much of this information I will be posting and providing on the website over the next few weeks now that I have had a chance to catch my breath .      The fact of the matter is that most  meteorologists out there do not know what I know about   Virginia North Carolina and Maryland snowstorms.   But that  is  not all that unusual .

There a lot of meteorologists out there that know a lot more than   me about severe weather and   tornadoes.   or  atmosphere to physics …
or climate modeling.      But during the winter for me  it is East Coast snowstorms in general  of which I given a number of seminars and talks on and  in particular the difference between a Northeast U.S. snowstorm and one for the lower Middle Atlantic region  — North Carolina Virginia Maryland Delaware.

These two animals are not the same thing.  Sure there are occasions where all of these areas…   fFrom North Carolina to Boston see a  heavy major snowstorm.  Some examples of these  are :  January 1996 blizzard…  The great arctic blizzard FEB 11-14 of 1899…   the much  ballyhooed super storm   of March 1993….  The great middle Atlantic    snowstorm of February 1983 and the Knickerbockers storm from January 1922.  But these are exceptions.

The historic  record setting snowstorms of the lower Middle Atlantic   region  was the    JAN 26-27 1940   VA NC  BLizzard   –  did  not bring significant snow north of Baltimore  into the big cities of the northeast.     That  great storm of record in Richmond and all of central and Southern Virginia    was  REAL blizzard and terem was  a  s severe cold wave which followed.  That storm dropped 22 inches of snow in downtown Richmond ….30 inches up by Lynchburg and farmville…   but only 12 inches in DC and nothing north of the Pennsylvania Maryland border.

The March 1-3,  1980 blizzard in eastern and southeastern Virginia or  the one in February 1-3, 1980  or the one  in Jan 1-3  1980  were all total misses   for  the big cities of the Northeast.    Even the surprise blizzard   of January 25,2000   the  brought     huge amount to snow to of Charlotte   (20 inches )   and the entire state of North Carolina … 1 tom2  feet almost all Virginia into Maryland and Delaware …but the snow mounts dramatically fell apart over the big cities of the northeast.

Most of the meteorologists that I have talked to  and/or get information and discuss these synoptic patterns with me   have agree with the argument that I made back the beginning of the week that this coastal storm would NOT have a chance to turn the corner to come up the coast to bring heavy snow to Philadelphia New Jersey New York Boston and New England.  The reason being the system crashing into the West Coast  would act as a kicker — a force of energy which would show the system over the southeast U.S.  off the North Carolina Coast.

At this Point I am pretty much done looking at various weather models and it’s almost time for  “now casting”.  It is also however time to take a look at possible scenarios regarding my forecast  and  forecasts in general as to    WHAT   COULD GO WRONG:

1.  NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW …  some of the 18z  Models and the   12z Saturday European Model do   have snow getting into Washington DC Southern Maryland  the lower Maryland Eastern shore … Southern Delaware even into Cape May NJ.    But not all the models agree about. There could be   pretty sharp cut off on the northern  edge.  It’s possible Washington, DC could see 4 o 5 inches of snow.

2. LOWER  MD  EASTERN SHORE…  Over the past 72 hours as we have moved into the short range models  …all the data has showed that the heavy snow areas in western .. nd Central Virginia narrow  to   a  “V  shaped  point  “    over the lower Maryland Eastern shore.  Some model data shows that the lower Maryland Eastern shore   may  be too warm for  the snow to stick …   but other data shows  there there  could in fact be a  2 to 4″ or  3-6 ” band of snow  over Dorchester   Wicomico Somerset and Worcester perhaps into southern Talbot and  Caroline  counties of the lower Maryland Eastern shore and   Sussex County in Delaware.

3. DELAYED START TIME …  Earlier in the week it looked  like the rain would come in   before  dawn Sunday over much of the southern third of Virginia and of course temperatures would  still be way too warm for the precipitation to fall as snow.  However over the last 36 to 48 hours the models have delayed the start of the precipitation.   By Sunday g 7:00 AM the rain is just across or along the Virginia North Carolina border.  This allows more cold air to get into the commonwealth  and   this air also  will have   lower  Dew points so that when the precipitation begins   and the  air   saturates   — where the temperature and the dew point meet — it does so at  or  below 32°.

4.   TEMPS  SUNDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL VA….  I anticipate temperatures to drop down to 32° for most of the storm Sunday evening…  some areas might get as low as 31.  Either way it will be just cold enough for this snow to accumulate.  But  the  snow will  be a heavy wet snow especially the beginning and that will cause   some compaction with the snow on the ground.  In other words suppose you measure the snow at one particular time…  at say   4″.    But then you measure it 2 hours later and it’s snowing like hell  but  you  only   measure  5 inches.   This could be   the  type a storm which presents real problems with regard to measuring snow amounts correctly.

On a sidebar let me point out some problems that exist  with the forecasts that I see from NWS.  Now  I hope this does not come across as a NWS  Bash…  because that is not what it is intended as .  I have gotten a lot of emails and face book postings regarding the forecast for southwest Virginia especially in and around Roanoke  and Lynchburg.  The problem is that the official forecast from NWS is correct.  Roanoke for example is under a winter storm warning for   at LEAST   4-8 inches of snows..  and  the   term  ” at least” implies   it could be little more than that for Roanoke.  That is a GOOD forecast.

BUT some of the NWS sites however do not show that.  As of 5:00  or 6:00 PM  Saturuay …after the winter storm warnings have been issued by the Roanoke/ Blacksburg office …other web sites was still showing this.

As you can see this forecast so calls for 2 to 4 inches.

Many TV and radio stations including some of the weekend idiot weather people in southwest Virginia apparently did not know about this confusion.  So they been telling their viewers winter storm warnings for Roanoke  with 2 to 4 inches of snow.  This of course makes no sense since the criteria for winter storm warning in Roanoke and southwest region VA is more than 4 inches of snow.  I do not know what the problem is but I do know that this sort a communication breakdown is very bad news for professional meteorologist everywhere and for TV and NWS people as well.  You cannot  have one end of the body not knowing what the other end of the body is doing…  This needs to be fixed  right away.

Second I don’t understand the forecast for Lynchburg.  If you look at the zones here in southwest region VA  you will notice that Lynchburg and counties to the north are not in official winter storm watch are warning…  But counties to the east and southeast ARE in a winter storm watch.  This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.  In addition all the data even the warmest models show at least 6 inches of snow in the Lynchburg area accumulating and much of the data shows 10 or 11 or 12 inches.  Now you could argue that Lynchburg is not to see that would snow.  But how then do you argue that areas to the east which were largely would be a little warmer  — areas such as farmville and Prince Edward county   are in a  winter storm watch?  I sure hope that is fixed soon because that is a busted forecast waiting to happen.

2200  EST  15 FEB   2012

I am often asked a question like  ” what does my  gut say…?”   or   “what is my instinct about this particular event ?..”    My response has been and will always be I do not forecast by gut or by emotion or by instinct .  There are some other well known meteorologists — and a lot of   weather   weenies–  who do that and  it usually results in disaster.  By committing to  one particular  forecast Model or  idea days ahead of time …   their  bias  becomes involved the forecast process.   When one model comes out which shows what they think is going to happen… they  Have  TO  latch onto   to that idea it because they have decided days out to go with that particular solution.  In other  words  by   committing so early  to only solution  one loses  the ability  to think   critically.

DT ‘S MEDIUM  RULE #3…   when  ANY  Model … which has been showing  XYZ   for many consecutive runs in a row…  Suddenly shifts and in 1  run shows  ABC….  The other pretty good that that shift is wrong…  Unless all the other weather models also show the same sort of  BIG shift.

The reason why this rule works is that in the current state of  numerical model prediction   — weather models– they are sufficiently accurate and of high enough quality that  it almost all cases if one model shows a shift of significance the other models will fairly quickly follow suit.
This is why I NEVER  Forecast by instinct or Gut.  This is why   REFUSE  to even  consider   the GFS past 72   -84  hours hours when it comes to East Coast winter storms.      Now that being said    I am sure others e are going to manipulate or lie or change this assertion into something that I haven’t said.     I do  NOT have a problem with the GFS model for certain weather patterns   OR  once  we are within 84 hours.  The  0z 15FEB   GFS  model run  was a massive …severe  unprecedented shift…  sSifting the coastal Low  from  the Georgia Coast …  suddenly  300 Miles to the nw  over  ATL…  from passing south and east of Cape Hatteras   to passing   west of Norfolk … fromn showing NO precipitation of any kind north a Washington, DC …  to driving heavy snow and rain into New York City Albany and will Willaimsport  PA.   The fact that you may be living in the northeast big cities and the  0Z GFS  is the picture perfect and one that you want to see for your location does it mean that the solution is a viable.

The proof ? all the OTHER  weather models did not show any significant change in their track or forecast and the updated  6z GFS has gone back to the southeast U.S. coastal solution.

This is supported by the Canadian and the British models 0Z  FEB  15   runs    as well as the 0z  ECMWF     and  the 0z European  Ensemble….  All   showed  ABOUT  the same  SORT  of thing”    the surface Low  tracking along the SE US   coast   in a  ENE direction   then over   or close to  Cape Hatteras.  There   was   absolutely no supported  at all for the ridiculous  0z GFS . None.

In fact the 0z FEB  15 European model had no precipitation of any kind north of Fredericksburg…  The Canadian and the British models do not have any significant snow north of the Washington, DC Baltimore area.   Again I Hope  realize  that   reporting and  discussing   the weather models does  NOT  mean that   the point I am Making   is   MY forecast..     I am  CERTAIN that this will    event wiill become  a mjaor    Precip  event .

We  saw  the same sort of thing   with the 12z GFS  ..  Another solution which was unsupported by even the GFS   Ensemble .  It became so bad   that at midday   15 FEB  HPC had issued a special statement regarding the bizarre scenarios and solutions being proposed by the 12Z  15FEB  operational GFS run.

From HPC Model discussion-THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH’S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE…THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY…WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS

But     the   Model  fiasco   last night with the  0z 15 FEB GFS  and  12z  15 FEB GFS  does  emphasize again why I think the  GFS  model …  with espect the East Coast winter storms … is a  piece of  crap..  Note that so far  NONE  of the other medium   range large scale models has shown any sort of  HUGE  wild  swings   in  6  or 12 hrs time increments.      NONE.

Increasingly this looks to me more and more as a Shenandoah Valley /  western VA….and Northern Virginia snowstorm    then up into   DCA/ BWI  area  and possibly  into  southern NJ  .  Richmond I think is going to be more wet than white but I am not absolutely convinced of that all of the event is   going to be all rain   for  central VA.

The area from Lexington south to Roanoke then down to   Hillsville poses of what I think to be the biggest challenges forecast.  Clearly areas which are in elevated terrain have  much better chance of seeing or staying all snow and clearly areas which are and north of interstate 81 have a even better chance of seeing snow…  Either in its entirety or a mixture of rain / snwo  going over to snow as the cold air is pulled into the system.  Once you move north of Lexington and Lynchburg there should be and of cold air east of interstate 81 so that the rain

Of course if one follows the   12z  FEB  15  European model…  And if you have access to the precipitation panels you  will have  seen that very little precipitation falls north of a line front Richmond to Roanoke Virginia.  However the European  Ensemble is much weather and has a large significant precipitation shield …with    precipitation amounts   of  0.25″    that extends    to the Virginia West Virginia border as well as the Maryland Pennsylvania border and into Southern New Jersey .

There could of course the snow to the north of that…  into Philadelphia and New York City.   In fact I suspect is probably going to be even though as a deceiving most of the TV stations in those markets are not forecasting snow into those cities.  That being said a honest interpretation of the pattern and what the model data has been showing in trending   – again ignoring all 4 runs of   15 FEB GFS    –   0z   6z   12z ans 18z  – shows that this is not going to be tracking up towards Cape COD with a benchmark.  That sort of thinking and analysis is just  outright delusioal   and  shows a  poor grasp of basic meteorology .

That  is not to say there aren’t meteorologists out there who are forecasting that but the data does not support a track of the   Low to the benchmark of   40N/ 70 W.   And more importantly the overall 500 MB clearly does not support that a specially with a large  closed 500 Low over  se   Canada.

1330  EST   13  FEB  2012

click on the image to  see   FULL SIZE

2230  EST  12 FEB  2012… STARDATE  201202.12

For most of this winter’s been pretty meager pickings if you are a winter weather or snow lover here in the Eastern CONUS region and if you are south of DC it’s been really slim pickings. The arctic cold front and the thunder snow and squall line which came to one Saturday certainly was exciting. I personally have not experienced under snow over 20 years… and I consider thunder SNOW o be better than cheap sex.

I made a comment on Saturday afternoon about the thunder snow and the snow squall on the FB page which I subsequently removed because it was not being taken the right way. The potential for a significant East Coast event FEB 11-12 I started referring to back on JAN 28. At first I was quite bullish on the system and thought it had the potential to bring a major snowstorm too much of the Middle Atlantic and New England coastal areas.

That did not happen.
So in one sense you could argue ...”well DT you sort a Busted on the long range forecast regarding the system“.     I would argue however that to make such a judgment shows that the person making that judgment is probably an idiot.     It is not that the assessment is wrong per se since there was no major snowstorm on the East Coast February 11-12.     The problem is that given the understanding of  weather and what can or cannot be forecasted with any sort of accuracy… it is not reasonable to expect a forecast from 14 days out to have the same accuracy as a forecast 2 days from now.    Given that my focus on the potential for a significant East Coast storm February 11 -12 …started at the end of January I think it was a pretty good forecast.

To be sure the GFS model is forecasting an East Coast winter storm of some type for another every three of four days.   But most of those events simply disappear are never come close to developing.   With respect to the February 11 Low… all one has to do is look at the satellite pictures and the surface maps from Saturday morning to see how close this system was to dropping massive amounts of snow up and down the East Coast.    The major costal storm DID develop but it also developed too far off to the east.      But it was a very close run thing and given the forecast was made 2 weeks out… I think it was a pretty good call.

In the short range –with regard to the Saturday event and the thunder snow and arctic front squall line– my view was that I don’t believe the local weather media in the Richmond area was giving enough impact or focus to the arctic front.    Once we reach the short range forecast time frame of this event – FEB 9 and 10 — I repeatedly emphasized that the main impact of this whole system was not going to be the coastal storm for Virginia and Maryland but would probably be the arctic cold front with the potential for heavy snow squalls and a possible flash freeze with the arctic front arrival.

The flash freeze of course did not happen for most areas but the snow squalls did and as we all know there was thunderstorms in the snow squalls! From my point of view… and this is just my opinion… saying something like ” we might see some snow showers with a cold front this afternoon when it arrives”… is technically OK but it’s not really an accurate forecast. And if you are going to go on air during the evening news and explained everybody what thunderstorm is and how it forms then it seems to me that that expertise could of been applied to emphasizing the potential for heavy snow squalls with a cold front arrival.

I know that some think that I am     “bashing”    other Meteorologists. I don’t think I am doing that but I guess it comes across that way. My goal here is to focus more on getting the forecast information out in a better way without destroying the signs of meteorology through a lot of tabloid hype and meteorological bullshit.

Several years ago there was some interesting research done about how the general public view meteorologists.  One of the things they found out is that while every body has their own “favorite” weather person or meteorologist that they listen to read or watch ( or some combination there of )… when the weather forecast goes bad the general public as a tendancy of thinking that all meteorologists either made the same or similar type a forecast or that they ALL busted.    I am not really sure why this is the case. For example if you take your car to the mechanic but the mechanic cannot figure out what is wrong with your car… very few people in the general public assume that all car mechanics are as bad as the one you are using. No one assumes all Car mechanics are of the same skill. And this is all the case with regard to how the general public views other professionals such as attorneys or doctors.    WHY  the general public has a different view about Meteorologists I dont know…. though I have some theories.

This is a kind of a pet peeve with me… but on the other hand it also helps me with my business in the grain and energy markets. Because there is so much bad medium and extended range forecasting going on out there and these inept forecasters seem to get a tremendous amount of publicity… When they come across my stuff many of these individuals are well… a little shocked.
For example my initial forecast for prolonged periods severe cold in Europe was made back in Mid January. At the time I dont think anyone else was calling for this sort of severe or prolonged cold ( but I coud be wrong about that…)

Or when it came to the debate about what was going to happen in February 2012 in the eastern CONUS… I opted for a short duration interval of 1 to 2 weeks of seasonally cold temperatures …nothing too severe… that would be over by the middle the month. Yet those forecasting a “Fabulous February” with temperatures dropping to zero in Boston and Chicago are continuing to bang the drum about how impressive week old the second half of February and March 2012 are going to be over portions of the eastern U.S.
Back in the early portion a January it look like that the pattern was getting ready to undergo a significant change. I had made several posts here on the web site and on the FB page… about how it looked like the jet stream is going to go undergo a significant amplification over the Bering sea into the North Pole region which would force all sorts of changes with regard to the +AO and – NAO. However by mid January it became obvious that the models were wrong and that the pattern was going to develop and a vastly different way.   It happens.

But you do NOT  keep holding onto the idea that severe cold is coming if the pattern has not changed.    If XYZ are causing the mild snowless winter pattern over the eastern CONUS…. and you forecast XYZ to change to ABC… well that’s great. But if ABC never shows up and the pattern does not change… then give up on the cold scenario already. Otherwise it looks like you don’t know what to doing or you are trying to BS folks so they hang on for another month while you rip them off.
Now lets focus a little bit on the potential for this event on February 19-20. First I am not YET committed to this event happening. Right now this threat is just a possibility. A THREAT… No more… Does that sound wishy washy?

Too friggin bad. As I said before… You don’t get extra points and you don’t win the game by making the first outrageously bad or stupid forecasts that you can. This is been a tough winter and it’s not been the same as the last two winters where it was easy to see major snowstorm events coming 5…6… and 7 days out. Whatever happens or does not happen over the Middle Atlantic areas on February 19-20… the fact remains that once this event or threat is gone… the last 10 days of FEB for much of the East Coast will feature more above normal temperatures. Perhaps it may mean the end of winter for much of the eastern CONUS …. except for New England .

The   FIRST  KEY POINT  we have to focus on is the system which tracks up through the Midwest and into New England on February 17. That system will bring rain and mild temperatures to the East coast but once it moves up into southeastern Canada most of the model data shows the system stalling over Maine and or southeastern Canada… a feature which I call the “50/50 Low”. This in turn allows for cold air to come pouring southward out of Canada across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic states.    If there is NO “50/50 Low”…. then nothing is going to happen on February 19 and 20 with regard to any sort of wintry weather on the Middle Atlantic Coast.
The SECOND   KEY POINT    has to do  with the southern shortwave or piece of energy itself.   Right now the system of course is way out in the Pacific Ocean and the weather models are guessing or estimating how strong or weak this feature may be.     A much stronger system coming through California and the southwestern states and the southern jet stream would of course increase the chances of a significant Low pressure area forming on the Southeast U.S. Coast February 19 .    But there  is no guarantee that is going to happen — the model data could be wrong and this system coming in from the Pacific on the southern jet stream could be quite weak.

THIRD if the 50 /50 Low is too strong or too far south then the southern short wave energy DOIES get crushed or supressed and NOTHING happens except for some rain over TX LA MS AL SC and GA.

When one is faced with this much uncertainty you have to walk a fine line.   At this   point   when faced with this sort of  uncertainty what  I try to do is set of some deadlines  or    some benchmarks.    Most of the answers for the potential   threat  or  mystery regarding February 19 – 20 will probably begin to show up around February 16 -17.     By that time I will have a pretty good idea about how strong the southern shortwave will actually be…   and  most of the Model data will have a pretty good idea of how strong the 50 50 Low will become and where its position is going to setup.

1100  4 FEB   2012   … STARDATE  201202.04

The extreme winter pattern that has developed over Europe is locked in position and shows absolutely no sign of breaking over next 7 to 10 days.  Complicating this is an development of a prolonged period of extreme winter weather ….a real historic old timers massive BLIZZARD…   over Southern Europe which is going to continue for another three days.  This is just exceptional weather and one that is meteorologically  extremely significant and a very good learning experience for anybody wishing to understand the nuances of European WINTER  weather.

What makes this extreme winter weather  in Europe  even more significant  is that the  atmosphere has responded to the arctic blast and a deep trough   in the Jet stream over central and Eastern Europe …by building a equally strong  Ridge  over the Azores and Spain.  This massive Ridge is  BLOCKING the deep trough over central and Eastern Europe and Western Russia/  Ukraine  from moving   west .   And this includes the 1060 mb  massive  Arctic HIGH over  NW Russia .   There  is  literally NO place for the Deep trough in the Jet stream   with  the  deep arctic cold  or the center of the massive  HIGH over Northwest Russia ….to move .   In other wirds  the arctic  cold    has No  place to   drain or  “spread ” out  like  it  does in the North America  when  Canadian arctic HIGH pressure systems dropped out of Canada and move towards the VA  or Texas .    Instead  it just sits  there   and it’s colder and colder as more and more mass of snow continues to fall.

This image shows the temperatures from yesterday afternoon on February 3 and this morning February 4.  Remember these numbers are in Celsius NOT Fahrenheit…  But there are plenty of temperature converters  you can access through Google to convert them if you cannot do the mass in your head.  -18c   is    ZERO degrees F   …-10C  =14F

As you can see most of Southern Germany was at or below zero as was all Poland.  There were several locations in the western and Central Ukraine as well as Belarus which dropped  down to an astounding  -33c this morning.  And many locations on the afternoon of February 3 in France   (of all places)   did not break  32 degrees  F.   Most of Germany saw max temps in the teens and single digits as the western  Poland  Austria and Hungary.   Many locations in the Ukraine and Belarus did not get above 04 Max temperatures yesterday and if you look at the readings in the the Balkans even south of the Danube their locations which did not get above 0  degrees   F  !!!

This image shows the European and Asian temperature anomalies from last night.  The BOTTOM  map shows the actual  850 mb  temps and you can see how impressive the cold most of Europe is…   while the  TOP map shows the temperature anomalies relative to normal and the dark purple   and violet colors s show the extreme anomalies over Western Russia  …eastern …central… and now Western Europe.

The morning satellite picture shows a massive clouds swirl covering southeastern Europe.  There  is  widespread heavy snow and high winds and now blasting that crap out of most of the Balkans and the Western Ukraine.

The surface  map from overnight tells the reasons WHY  quite nicely…  This is from the European model and we can see that last night there was a moderately strong area of   LOW pressure over Southern Italy…  and   the Large arctic HIGH of 1059  MB over Northwest Russia near Saint Petersburg.  If you look of the BLACK  Lines which are the Isoabrs … you can see that the arctic HIGH  pressure extends all the way into France and Eastern Spain.  The interaction between the surface low  of 1002 MB  and the   1059 HIGH is producing strong east winds across the Balkans feeding the moisture into the elevated train and producing massive  snow falls this morning on the surface maps and reports.

If you take a look of the RED lines …which of the jet stream configurations…  you will notice that there is a Upper Low associated with the surface Low over Corsica and Sardinia  -   which I have highlighted in darker GREEN.   But there is a second ULL over   Poland  and the   western Baltic  Sea….  which is going to get pulled into the big Low over the Mediterranean over the next three days and produce ANOTHER   blizzard .

Here we can see that on the European Model   valid  for 72 hours from now.  The Low that was over Italy is  now  over Greece and it is Much  deeper..995 MB.   What has happened here is that the Low over Italy has strengthened as the Upper Low over Poland has been pulled into the southern  Upper Low.   This process is known as the Fujiwara effect  and while it doesn’t happen very often at the surface it does happen more commonly at the upper levels the atmosphere.

Even more impressive is the pressure gradient!!!!    The 1061 massive    Arctic HIGH  is still there  and it has moved at all…  while this 995 Low is trying to move into the Bulgaria and Romania ans from Greece.  Of course it can’t but the interaction between them is producing a lot more Black Lines an extremely strong winds across all of southeastern Europe and into the western half of the Ukraine.  Also  keep in Mind the  blizzard is still raging past 72 hours!!!!

Also take a look at what’s going on over Spain   …the Azores and the United Kingdom.  The ridge in the Jet stream   there has continued to expand and push towards Iceland and the west coast of Norway.  Keep in mind the  Teleconnection  here…  This massive  Azores  Ridge means that the system over the Balkans can become very strong and deep and also ensures a prolonged extremely heavy snow event because neither the arctic high or the deep low over Greece can move.

This next image shows the GFS snowfall  forecast for the next 72 hours and most of the Balkans and Western Ukraine are going to disappear under a blanket of 2 to 3 feet of snow because of the current heavy snow falling over the region….  And the 2nd massive blizzard which is going to start Sunday.

Finally this Last image shows that changes snow cover for Europe over the next eight days.  The image on the left is based upon the snowfall as of this morning … February 4…  The image on the right based upon the model data eight days some now February 12.   These maps  speak for themselves….

WOW.. just    wow…

so much  to say  so much to say   so much to say –   DAVE MATHEWS    BAND.

Really I do.  If you  are a energy meteorologist  or   a TV  meteorologist…   this winter has not been particularly enticing here in the  U.S.     Of course given  that the last two winters have been gangbusters  those two types of  Meteorologists   probably need a break.  BUT if you are  agricultural /Grain  meteorology   –  and I do far more Gain  weather than energy weather -    and it’s been gangbusters  all around the world and helluva lot of fun.

Every single day I am issuing forecasts not just for the U.S.  Plains /  Midwest but for Argentina and Brazil …South Africa… Australia Europe… the Ukraine… Southwest Russia and Kazakhstan and then when their growing seasons are up and running China and India  as well.

wow…. Ya know when  I think about it… I do a lot of work every day.  Plus the  web site and the FB  page.  But really it’s not work at all because if I couldn’t forecast weather I probably starve to death.  Right now for example  much of Argentina and Southeast Brazil bring areas have been devastated by a  drought and three prolonged key ways since mid December.    One location in West Central Argentina  — Santiago Del  Estero — reported a Max temperature of 50°  C   or  122 degrees  F.  Now that reading is probably in error but a lot of  places and Argentina on the 30th sought Max temperature of 40 degrees  C   or 105  degrees F.   However a monster  HEAT DOME  has moved into Eastern Brazil which is  going too slowly drift towards Bolivia and Paraguay over the next several days while at the same time a cold front moves into Central Argentina.  This cold  front is going stall because of the heat dome blocking its path and portions of  Central Argentina could see some pretty good rains…  But then  there may be yet another interval of significant heat in Argentina in mid February!

Now if we take a look over in Russia … several locations this morning January 31 temperatures drop to -28° C /-18F. !  Even more important is that for most of December and January the Ukraine and southwest Russia has seen much  above normal temperatures.  There  has not been a lot of snow cover and some of  the winter wheat crop has already tried to break ground in Southern Ukraine and
southwest Russia.  Now along comes as monster arctic HIGH at  1061 mb  over  Northwest Russia near Saint Petersburg which has spread the cold all way to the  Rhine river!  This morning in Bulgaria  many locations had temperatures dropped to zero degrees Fahrenheit .

If this sounds like I am  really enthusiastic about  weather worldwide…  I really am.  But the truth of the matter is that I get this  excited about ALL weather almost every single day.  As a result I can go out of my way to  post about how warm it’s going to be in the Middle Atlantic states 7 to 10 days out with the same amount of enthusiasm  that I have for a big winter storm.   So while it  IS true  that I do love East Coast snowstorms and East  Coast hurricanes a lot …I try not to let my fondness for those particular type of weather events distract me or by state in any way.  And one of the ways I do that is to get excited about weather which many of you may not feel is all that
great or noteworthy.

Some of you have noted over the past week  that  in the  debate   about the  idea of FEB 2012 turning   colder and  or stormier for the  eastern Conus … my overall perspective  or  attitude    has changed.    Lead me be upfront and frank about this     YES  my perception  and  views  about February 2012 has changed from   from  what it was last week.  Now  some of you…  may view me  as   “Johnny come lately“  to the party as other well known meteorologists have been talking about a much colder and potentially more winter like February 2012 for the last couple weeks.     OK fair enough.

But if you are going to make that same judgment then it’s only fair to note that some of these other same meteorologists have been banging the drum for a major pattern change over North America several times this winter and  as we all KNOW .. it has NOT  happened.    One energy trader made a joking comment  to  me   that this well known private meteorologist up in New England    “has forecasted seven of the last zero pattern changes…”     OUCH…

In the arguments I made  over the past few weeks against the  idea of  a  BIG  pattern change …  I tried  to drive home the importance and the significance of the huge Polar Vortex in the jet stream sitting up north of Alaska …on the Asian side of the Arctic circle.  Time and time again I stated that in order to get a pattern change in North America that feature has to move or break down or shift or do something  …because as long as it stays there  nothing is going to happen  regardless of what any model might or might not be  saying .

Now  we are  finally  seeing that huge Polar Vortex breaking down and changing.  That is why I am  more bullish about February than  I was before.    I set up by specific criteria or checklist of things which I had to see happen  FIRST  before I jump on board.  Now that I see those    things happening my perspective has changed.    To me is not important as to whether or  not to   “call it FIRST!  “   You don’t get extra money …the girls don’t think  you are any  sexier and you don’t dance any better.
I think it is very important to notice that few if any of the meteorologist   that have the  “ call it first  “  attitude never come out and say  ” the issue is uncertain”  or  “ the issue is undecided“.     Yet as we all know small changes often lead to very big variations   as you go further out in time.  Therefore the perspective / goal of always trying to   CALL IT FIRST  can only  Blow   up in your face because sometimes you can not call it First.  Sometimes you cannot  make the call   right now  based on the current data.

The problem is that if you decide to chase the  goal   of   “Calling  it  first “   is the most important thing as a professional meteorologist …  you may get on TV the most  but  in the end     you will  also  get the reputation   of    “forecasting seven of the last nonexistent pattern changes”.   In the end you will end up cutting off  your  nose despite  your face because all  of your forecasts  will be looked at with a great deal of skepticism and of little value to people who have serious money and  would d normally be interested in what you  have to say.

THE FEB 5-6  EVENT….  its coming  North !!!!!

The models at midday are clearly not in agreement.    All the models do  agree that a strong ocean Low was going to form and stall over Southeast Canada/ Newfoundland over the next 4 days .  This deep system will set up a strong  CONFLUENT  flow in the polar jet …  That will allow for a relatively cold area of High pressure over Eastern Canada  too develop  (near Montreal ).  So far so good.
However the European Model with its bias  to develop systems too far to the west …ends up closing off the upper Low over western KS.     At the same time the  Ridge  over the West Coast  of  N America –part of the +PNA    – begins to develop so the Ridge traps the upper Low  over  KS is delayed for several days.  The precipitation shield completely falls apart as  the Upper Low  tries to Under cut the Ridge and move into the Great Lakes.  By the time the precipitation finally reaches the Appalachians and the East Coast the cold air source over southeastern Canada is gone so whatever falls is mild and rain.  I believe that the European solution  for  FEB 5-6  at  Midday  is   NOT   the correct solution.

On the other hand      some   of you  out there  –and I   know you who are   because I have seen your posts on various whether forms–   are arguing that the flat weak Low   on the  12z and 18z JAN 31  GFS solutions   that moves off the NC / VA coast is underdone…  and / or that we will see a bigger Low pressure area come off the coast and it will come further  North…  Well that  is not correct either.

The problem is that strong northern branch of the jet stream cutting  across New England.  As long as that feature  is there and supplying the cold   air this Low pressure area cannot  possibly come UP the coast.  If anything  the Low will continue to get crushed and stay fairly flat and unorganized the cause of the strong polar jet over New England.

Now let’s be careful  with what I just said.    I did NOT  say the Low that comes off the North Carolina Virginia Coast cannot possibly come north the matter what.  What I said was that as long as that strong polar jet remains over  New England the Low cannot   come north.

My view is that we are going to see a system that will be struggling to hold together as it moves off the North Carolina were Virginia Coast.  It will bring some snow and ice to MD   se PA  s NJ     Northern DEL  and ice to rain over eastern  and central  VA.  It is possible that the northern half of the Shenandoah Valley could see pretty good ice event…  say from Charlottesville  North to Winchester and Martinsburg.

THEN WHAT?

The operational European this afternoon as well as the European ensemble was  very bullish on the much colder pattern coming into the U.S.  However I have to  let you know that a LOT of energy meteorologist treated the European model with a tremendous amount of skepticism and disbelief.  The general view is that the pattern is going to turn colder for a 10 or 15 day  period …say from   FEB 5/6   to   FEB 15-19.  But that the cold is not going to be nearly as severe as some other meteorologists have been screaming about for the past two weeks.

That argument is based on the fact that the Polar Vortex that forms in North America stays over northeastern Quebec Canada and is not really far enough to the south or west to drive the arctic air into  the CONUS.     Indeed if you look at the day 10 European map at the 500 mb  you will see a a very deep intense and large    PV  in Eastern Canada.   And as you can see the   COLD air   pool around the   PV is equally impressive .  But  notice that the  deep blues  and purples are not coming south into the U.S.   as the   arctic  cold is   pretty  much trapped around the immense circulation of the Polar vortex.

In order to get this severe cold into some portion of the Great Lakes or New England in the second or third week of February …the PV has got to come  further south and west more towards the northern Great Lakes.  The current  position as forecasted by the  Day 10 operational European  or the   day 10  European  Ensemble is just not far enough to the south and west to drive true  arctic air into the U.S..

In other words its cold but it is not bitter cold and it is not severe cold.  If you like cold weather   then  FEB 2012  is going to be the  pretty  good.  The cold pattern could last for a couple weeks of February.  But it may be that some have been overselling this colder  pattern by a significant amount.

One last point before I  close.  Since January 29 I have been talking  about the possibility of a significant East Coast winter storm threat sometime around February 10-11-12.  I continue to see the potential  on the 0z and 12z  models …on the  GFS  and European operational models .. and on the  GFS and  European    ensemble mean  patterns.  It’s quite likely over the next few days that the GFS model in particular   will  LOSE  the  possible    southern Low….  By either crushing a completely in the cold a pattern or by losing the   southern feature.  My view is that the system for February   10-11-12 has far more serious potential then the  FEB 5-6   event .

Again this sort of confidence I have  for this  potential threat may seem to some of you to be a surprise or hard to figure given my reluctance to forecast the pattern change earlier in January.     But as I said many times once you know what sort of features   at  850  700    500    and 300 mb  mb   and what   those  maps  look  like for  big East coast snowstorms…   then the   favorable  pattern are  rather easy to detect several days out.    When the pattern is there  I am   there  and if the  potential is there  I can be rather positive about the chances if I think it’s warranted.   But if the pattern is not there I don’t give a hoot  in  hell  what  ANY weather model   is  depicting or  not   depicting — I won’t jump and I will be pessimistic .

My goal with East Coast snowstorm has always been to walk the line where you can see it coming and tell people it’s going to be big event several days out but not to oversell it or overhyped the event  just to get viewer clicks or readings .  My goal has been and will always be  here at wxrisk.com when it comes to East Coast  snowstorms… that If I say  its   coming   it is…  And when I say it’s going
to be serious   it is.

Well that’s the goal anyway.

  Before you read the  forecast   BELOW  Please    click on     THIS   LINK .   There are some  points  I need to make   before you read the forecast below   

  .

.AS   OF  210   EDT 29 JAN    2011 ……    If   you are running a  weather   sensitive Business…   such as a   Propane or Energy…  Mountains resorts… Marinas …. landscaping….  or  construction  and    you need    DETAILED    two and three   week forecasts  you  really should   try  VA   BUSINESS  Weather  Newsletter    ( The   VA Business  Weather Newsletter   is a paid  subscription    service.   If you are interested    send me an   Email at  wxrisk@comcast.net  or   at   facebook.com/ wxrisk  )

 CLICK  ON  THE  MAPS   FOR   FULL  SIZE 

  ==========================================================================

THIS  COMING   WEEKEND      (FEB 3-4-5)

SUMMARY 

The overall pattern across North America  is  GOING   to  turn in  major way   over the next 10 days.   JAN  31  FEB 1 and FEB 2  will be    SUPER MILD   over  all of MD VA  WVA  NC  DE … with   much of NC  and   eastern half of  VA   reaching  70 degrees or close to it   on the 31st and FEB 1  and Low 60s on the  1st.      A Low will track  through the  Great Lakes and   Northern New England  FEB  3…   and that  Low drives a  cold front   into  the region   FEB  3-4 … with the front stalling over  TN and  NC.    All the Models  show a  2ND Low  developing on the front  FEB 5  and this Low COULD  become a  Big  east coast winter  storm.  IF  there is  enough cold air in place   Northern NC   central and  sw VA    and eastern  MD …COULD  see a Ice  event  and   WVA   western and central  MD   could see a   good size snow event.    BUT   some data  does  NOT  have enough  cold air in place over va nc   for  snow or ice…  so this forecast is  VEERRRRRRY risky.
FRIDAY   FEB  3	SATURDAY   FEB 4	SUNDAY  FEB 5 temps here may be   significantly lower

1945  EST  27  JAN 2012… STARDATE  201201.27

Did you ever have one of those days where no matter how hard you try the one thing you wanna get to the just can’t seem to get to or complete? This is one of those days. I’ve been trying to complete this website update for 6 hours…since 2pm … and every time I attempt to finish it some useless human being others me or the phones I have to stop what I am doing …. or pick up someone. A very frustrating afternoon because there is a lot to say and I’m not going to take any prisoners in saying it and I don’t give a crap whose toes or feelings I hurt.

There are a lot of weather nuts  out there… ranging  the serious weather hobbyists    to it  lowest grade or lowest form:    the weather weenie.    If you are a winter weather lover like I am you always WANT  to get excited about the big snowstorms and the big cold pattern. Certainly I could produce a lot more business for my website and for the FACEBOOK  page by banging the    drum constantly about cold patterns which never show up.   But that is NOT what WXRISK.COM is all about.   As I  have stated many times before  ..  MY  inter forecast for Winter 2011-12   ( like most others) was disastrously wrong. This is the fifth time and I said that statement about my forecast in the past month yet many weather weenies out there seem to have this perception that I am suggesting my winter forecast was very good.

The point is that the last two winters have been very good for WXRISK.COM    . But the reason why I was bullish and aggressive with a cold and the snow winter patterns over the last two winters for the central and Eastern CONUS is because the patterns were.  I  wasn’t being Bullish on cold and snow to gain religious followers or to have snow nuts fall in love with me.

The purpose of practicing science and in particular the science of meteorology is to learn from the mistakes. My winter forecast was wrong and I have discovered –I believe– to be the synoptic reason why the pattern did not develop the way I thought it might. I stated those reasons in the last entry   GOTTERDAMMERUNG…

Strangely enough all this arguing back and forth has happened before.   Some recall that 10 years ago the winter of 2001-2 was also  forecasted to be a very cold and or snowy winter for much of the central and eastern CONUS. Back then WXRISK.COM was just starting out…  But I  got caught up in the consensus forecasting  thing and  went  for  a colder than normal and at least normal snow winter for the central and eastern CONUS   . Instead that winter turned out to be one of the warmest and least snow east on record!

I distinctly remember speaking on my new cell phone with other leading private meteorologists in various firms and energy companies. And the debate was going back and forth — there are no chat rooms back then– about how the NAO is going negative and that the whole pattern is eventually going to change.    ”VODKA cold”    was the term that everybody through around and used… Some use that term jokingly… some that term semi seriously and some very seriously.

And   the thing is   time after time the weather models constantly forecasted colder outbreaks of significant size and scale. And every few days of cold air patterns or outbreaks would be delayed until next week or 10 days some now.

Some of you may not remember but I am sure a lot of longtime whether hobbyists and fanatics and professional meteorologists do.    To be sure there were some cold days during that winter . But the massive pattern flipped or reversal that many forecasted or was hoping to occur … never happened .

WHY?      What can we learn about that winter    od 2001-02  which could tell us something about large scale patterns so that in the future when we see the same pattern we know not to fall for the same hype.

To a large degree  the  2001-02  Winter  Forecast  Busts  were caused  by    everyone looking at JUST  the  CPC  NAO   Indexes   or the EPO   or the AO.   But  NE or  Midwest snowstorms do NOT happen  because of the  Graph line from  a chart  from CPC.    For  Example    a Ridge or Block  over the  UK does  technically count as  “-NAO”  pattern but for    NE  US Snowstorms    having a  Ridge or Block  at 500 MB over the UK  is the Kiss of  death.

This first map is the 500 MB from December 14, 2001. Again I have highlighted the map so you can see the features I am talking about.

What you can quickly observe on this map is that the PV — polar vortex –is centered north of Alaska on the Asian side of the Arctic circle which is    EXACTLY   where the PV   stayed all  Winter back in 2001-02.

This next image is from the current winter and we can see two maps – 6 NOV 2011 and 7 JAN 2012. And clearly the overpowering feature on these maps is the persistent deep vortex centered over Alaska the Bering sea far eastern Siberia then or the east Asian side of the arctic circle.

Next here is the image from 19 January 2012…. And lo and behold what do we see ??? The enormous PV still centered over Alaska and the Bering sea!!. Its massive its deep and its huge and it’s blocking all the cold air on the wrong side of the world so that there is simply no sustained colder source in North America.

Over the past several days however there has been increasing signals from SOME weather Models of a massive historic pattern reversal with all sorts a severe arctic cold rapidly overrunning the entire eastern CONUS and all sorts of fabulous looking patterns that support snow storms.

Let me be clear about this.    Despite what you may have heard/ read  from other sources  that  may  be just trying to sell you  product and subscriptions… most of   drive for  Much colder / snowier  feb 2012  is being driven  by the GFS model. The European model   as well as  the GFS and the European ENSEMBLES are not nearly as bullish are not nearly as extreme as the operational GFS.

THE 12z GFS JAN 27….

Let’s take a look and see how and why the operational GFS has been showing this  and why  it probably will continue to be out to lunch for several days… and why the extreme solution of this model is unlikely to verify.

This image is the 120 hr 500 mb map… VALID for FEB1.   We can see that the NAO is strongly positive     ( note the closed 500 low OVER Greenland )      but we can also see north of Alaska on the top upper left of the map the age of the Polar vortex.   There is a shortwave or a piece of energy in the southern jet stream over New Mexico which is beginning to develop.

In this next image at 156 hrs OR FEB 2 … We see the northern branch beginning to merge with that system over the Mexico and a fairly deep trough trying to develop over the Eastern US     . But the arctic air hasNOT   yet reached the East Coast so the Low pressure area that develops over the SE coast ridge up the front produces rain across the Middle Atlantic states and into the big cities of Ide 95.     I got several emails today about the GFS forecasting a snowstorm on February 2 for the northeast… But as you can see the model data from the GFS does not show that at all.

This next image we can see the GFS at DAY8 or 192 hrs.   The   northern Jet stream has   continued to dig out  a   deep trough  that covers much of the Midwest and Deep South.     There appears to be some sort of  surface Low pressure area developing on or off the Southeast US. Coast..    And we have a nice looking 50/50 low off the Canadian maritime provinces.      But more importantly the model still shows the large polar vortex (PV) on the very top upper left of the map.

Remember folks that after 192 hours the model resolution of the GFS shifts or expands dramatically. The cause of this model truncation within the GFS… The model has developed a reputation for coming up with really wacky goofy solutions

We can see a good example of that at 240 hours.  For some reason the  GFS  at 240 hrs  has  grabbed the Polar vortex that was to the north of the northern side of Alaska and pulled it hundreds of miles for the south  in  a very short period of time— into southern Hudson’s Bay Canada.      This solution is well preposterous. It’s absurd.     The pattern is very impressive looking and nearly ideal or textbook for the development of a major East Coast winter storm. It’s just not likely to happen.

We see more of the same sort of crap at 300 hrs … By which time the model has completely lost it’s mind.    Do you really think the Polar vortex is going to be centered over Montreal Canada on February 8??? 

REALLY???

This solution is so extreme and so laughable that  the 12z GFS ensemble is totally against this solution. It keeps   the   heart of the Polar Vortex   STILL well to the north of Alaska on the Asian side of the Arctic circle and a secondary weaker extension of the vortex swing through Baffin island and northern Hudson’s bay and Labrador.

What the GFS ENSEMBLE is telling us is a fairly deep trough along the East Coast that will bring in some decent cold air for several days. But because there is nothing to lock the trough in position over the eastern U.S. it will slide off the coast and as it does so the NAO will turn strongly positive.

This next image is from January 7, 2002. And we see the large PV extending across the north slope of Alaska into far North Central Canada across the arctic region but not really moving into any portion of central and Eastern Canada.

At the time the weather models were developing a significant trough over the eastern U.S. And talked about the potential of a significant pattern change coming in the days after January 8 2002.

Amazingly enough this 500 map from 7 JAN 2002 is darn close to identical to what the 192 DAY 8 GFS model showed today.     The shape of the trough over the eastern U.S. back in 2002 is identical to what the data eight GFS model looks like. The attempt by the Polar vortex to move across Northern Canada 7 JAN 2002… Very similar to what the model is showing for next week. And just like back in 2002 in the first week in January were a lot of meteorologists fought that this was going to be the beginning of the big pattern change… we see the same sort of thing going on here in January 2012.

THE 12Z JAN 27 EUROPEAN Model.

This FIRST image is actually from the early morning or 0z European model run of JAN 27 … VALID FEB 3 and FEB 7 . We can clearly see the model showing the huge massive Polar Vortex on the Asian side of the arctic circle and it is nowhere near the northern hemisphere.      Yes we do have a strong ridge on the West Coast and yes we do have a deep trough over the East Coast (+PNA) but the Arctic 0scillation (AO) is still VERY positive because it is very intense … It has lots of lines around it and it’s located over the arctic region.

There is a little extension or trough coming off the arctic oscillation moving through northeastern Canada at Day 10. Once that features swings eastward into Greenland at Day 11… the NAO turns strongly positive.

How was is different from anything we’ve seen so far this winter??    Except for the brief transitory trough over the eastern CONUS … It is the same pattern!

Here is the operational European from 12z JAN 27… DAY 10….valid JAN 27.     It seems to look to be a very promising and very winter like pattern developing. There’s a nice ridge      on the West Coast we appear to have some sort of block developing over East Central Canada which would be ideal… Cold air appears to be coming southward.

But again if we take a look at the European ensemble we see a very different story. The ensemble still keeps the huge vortex centered over Siberia and the Asian side of the arctic circle and that is just the wrong position to get sustained cold winter pattern over any portion of the central and eastern CONUS. It is strikingly similar to the problem we had in the winter of 2001-02…

Finally let me be absolutely clear about this.    The first week of February will probably feature some cold temperatures some of the cold air might be kind of impressive for a few days. As I said last update … I am not in any way ruling out the possibility of a significant snow for at least some portion of northeast U.S. And I have not EVER said ” no more cold “.

But I see nothing at the convince me that the pattern is going to change because just like in the Winter 2001-02 The PV remains in the wrong position and there vast majority of the model data keeps the Polar vortex in that position on the wrong side of the globe.

24 JAN 1030  EST     STARDATE    201201.24

There  is a famous scene and photograph from world war two where field Marshal Walter Model is talking to Hitler about the options left in the  Battle of the  Bulge   (a.k.a.   The Ardennes Offensive).  And in that conference   Model says to   Hitler…

” We must  face  the   facts   squarely  mein Furhrer …we   cannot force our way to the  Muese River. It is over”

That’s where  we  are right now.  Like the Ardennes Winter offensive of December 1944 …the cold weather or winter counteroffensive of 2012  is in serious trouble and is likely headed for total collapse and failure .    With the  Battle of the Bulge there are several important reasons for this–  the initial reaction of the American troops   along the   Our  River   and Elsenborn Ridge…  the inability to take   the key  town/ road junctions of  St Vith  until DEC 21  and  Bastogne which was  never  taken…  Just to name a few  reasons.

With regard to this particular winter   –or non winter depending on your point of view  –    the problems remain immense and the model depiction of how the pattern is going to evolve over the next 10 days has been really bad.    The   various    weather models  keep forecasting these sorts of significant developments of what the pattern is going to look several days down the road .   Yet  when that time  arrives and we compare the actual atmosphere to the forecast from six or eight days ago we see huge discrepancies .

Therefore if you are hoping  for…or anticipating a significant change in the overall pattern across North America and/ or the northern hemisphere which will bring about a stormy  and or colder  pattern for the eastern  CONUS…  well   you are in trouble.  It’s not going to happen . 

There  still remain  a decent possibility of a significant winter storm at some point in February or March for the eastern U.S. and especially the East Coast.  But in terms of a prolonged pattern    flip  or change?   NO. 

In the last discussion I wrote   (  BIG BERTHA   and the BUTT   SISTERS)     I tried to walk a fine line between optimism and reality.  There have been several false signals  given off by both the European and the GFS models during the past several weeks which seem to be indicating the pattern was about the  switch.  But I   also emphasized that despite repeated attempts by various models to accurately forecast  the AO and the NAO   to go negative….  In every case the models have turn out to be disastrously wrong.  Only twice since the beginning of autumn has  the AO and the  NAO  dropped into negative territory but that is not what we seen from the various weather models time after time after time over the past several weeks.

There is simply no other  way to say this.    The GFS  European and Canadian models…  Both with respect to the operational and  the ensemble  — have been  wrong.  As an extremely wrong.     As in  ” without a clue”.

Invariably   when  the models begin to see that things are not turning out as earlier forecasted they come up with a new solution after adjusting the pattern and delaying the cold.

For example  this image compares  the  European   Model / ensemble  from JAN 18  valid day 6…   to  TODAY  Jan 24.   

A quick glance would show that the day 6 European model has verified pretty well when compared to what the atmosphere actual looks like over the northern hemisphere today January 24.  But there is an important difference and that has to do with the key feature I talked about on January 18… which was the development of   New   Vortex over the Sea of Japan.  It was this feature on the  JAN18   European model at day6  that  was  suppose  to start  the entire pattern change.  However if we look at the current image  we see this   Vortex  is  NOT anywhere near the Sea of Japan…  It over the north side of Siberia almost in the arctic regions.

This has huge implications for the entire pattern.

Indeed  if we look at the   European model  ensemble   from JAN18   valid  at day 10…  And compare it to the    JAN  24   0z  European model for   JAN 28-29 … The differences are quite significant.

The   European  ensemble   at day  10  from  Jan 18… valid for the 28th …  Showed a very large powerful new vortex  centered  over the Sea of Japan.  The updated version of the European  model    valid for the 29th of January does NOT  show that  this feature at all!  There is   NO  deep close 500 low anywhere near the Sea of Japan ….so the entire pattern is fundamentally changed and the development of  the colder wintry pattern for North America does not exist.   Instead we have of new deep vortex over the north side of Alaska which is where is been for most of the winter and is the proverbial kiss of death for getting any sort of sustained cold winter patterns in the eastern half of the U.S.

Its Over.

Looking at day 10… valid FEB 3  …  We see more the same sort of thing.  The   PV  is centered over the western side of the arctic region barely reaching into the western hemisphere.  All the truly cold air is located on the Pacific side of the arctic circle not on the Canadian side.  This is simply the wrong location   for the PV  to be located IF you are trying to get the pattern to change over the eastern half of North America.

What a god awful nightmare…  If you like a winter weather in the eastern U.S.

Even if we try and project or hold for something to change down the road we  run into problems.  The general trend of the Arctic Oscillation   ( the  AO)  is moving back towards a neutral and is no longer dropping into the negative territory.   WHY?   Because the PV that was in the gulf Alaska and heelped  bring about the Seattle and Pacific Northwest snow and ice storm did  NOT move   east into western or Central Canada  ( like the Models    forecasted).     Instead it has reformed on the north side of Alaska where it  has  been for most of this winter…  which really is  + AO position.

Even the    negative trend in the NAO has halted and  the GFS  ensemble    show the NAO   levelling off at Neutral.     Again go back and reread what the model data and the trends are showing on January 18.     This was not   the way things supposed to be evolving .

And if you are a professional meteorologist and you cannot see this   then   you are  trying   to sell somebody something  or  you are  delusional.

And really  the pattern does not change much  no matter  what we look at with respect to any particular model.  For example here is the day 10 GFS  — the 0z run–   ensmeble mean.  We have a moderate sized trough in the east a little bit of a ridge  on the West Coast…  which  by the way  the European model does not have…  The dark purple areas clearly show  2  PVs  located on the Pacific side of the arctic circle .  Another words although really serious cold air is located on the long side of the world to get a sustained cold pattern to develop in North America

  *****     It is hard to understate how   damaging it is with respect to the pattern the evolving into  a  cold one over the eastern half of North America and the U.S.  with a huge vortex of centered over Alaska or snow on the western side of the arctic circle.  ****

If we look at say the  8-14 day   reforecast model from  ESRL …  The pink areas clearly show some sort of  -NAO   but the pronounced and very noticeable dark Blue  areas over Northern Alaska is  STILL   there and shows no signs of moving.  What this feature does is essentially cause the Pacific jet to become very strong…  And therefore  there   can be no  sort  of  pattern a amplification over the  eastern pacific / west coast of North America   ( NO +PNA  and distinct tendency to get a – PNA).

One last  note: if we do  in fact keep  and  hold   the -NAO   into   a good portion of   FEB … then  it still  might  be possible to  get  a surprise a snowstorm for the  northeast US  of the some magnitude.  By surprise I am talking about relative terms — inother words it might be something that 10 days out looks like nothing and then in the last 72 hours things change into a moderate or significant snowstorm for the northeast U.S.    In order get something like this to happen there would have to be some sort of pattern amplification occurring on the West Coast   – a ridge over    western US / Canada–   that would cause a  short wave to  dig much further to the south resulting in some sort a cyclogenesis over the southeast U.S.