ISSUED    1915  HOURS  EDT   22 MARCH   2013

ISSUED   1900  HRS  EDT    21 MARCH   2013

ISSUED  2000  HRS    20 MARCH 2013

 BASED   ON 12Z      MARCH   4    MODEL DATA   CLICK  ON THE   IMAGES  TO SEE   FULL SIZE…  

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BASED   ON 12Z      MARCH   3    MODEL DATA   CLICK  ON THE   IMAGES  TO SEE   FULL SIZE…  

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BASED   ON 12Z      MARCH 2    MODEL DATA   CLICK  ON THE   IMAGES  TO SEE   FULL SIZE…  

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NEXT  UPDATED BASED  ON 0Z   MARCH  MODEL DATA  WILL  BE AT  0900  MARCH 2  EST  

  0900 EST   8 FEB 2013   

There are few changes to make in the last minute forecast but nothing major. It is obvious that last night’s stunning 0z NAM that dropped a stunning amount of snow — 40″ in the suburbs of New York City the lower Hudson Valley and northeastern New Jersey….. was 100% bullshit. I suggest that you say that snowfall image and use it for your desktop background because you’re not likely to see anything like that again from the weather model over the northeast for a long time to come.
Indeed the updated version of the NAM.. the 6Z nam – shows the reality the situation which you can see from the radar itself this morning. This image shows how all the heavy precipitation is going to be confined to New Jersey and southeastern New York State all points eastward.    And    the  6Z SNOW MAP   show major changes from the0z NAM snow map
          

It shows what I have been talking about for several days !!! — that the northwest flank of this system is going to screw somebody out of the big snowstorm. This means if you are located in NORTHWEST NJ and / or eastern and northeastern Pennsylvania there is going to be a amazingly tight snow gradient over this portion of the northeast. This is the one portion of the snow forecast I am most concerned about .
I have the heavy snow area 8 to 12″ up against the Pennsylvania New Jersey State line. It may extend into Allentown and Wilkes burr Scranton. It may not…. It’s going to be very close to the Pennsylvania Maryland border.
This is supported by the 0z RPM from last night AND the HRRR Model– – HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID RESPONSE Model which shows over the next 15 hours a very tight snow gradient along at or close to the Pennsylvania and New Jersey State line.

RPM                                                          HRRR  

JAN   4, 2013

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28 JAN, 2013

20 JAN,  2013

13 JAN  2013