Before you read the  forecast   BELOW  Please    click on     THIS   LINK .   There are some  points  I need to make   before you read the forecast below   

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.AS   OF  210   EDT 29 JAN    2011 ……    If   you are running a  weather   sensitive Business…   such as a   Propane or Energy…  Mountains resorts… Marinas …. landscaping….  or  construction  and    you need    DETAILED    two and three   week forecasts  you  really should   try  VA   BUSINESS  Weather  Newsletter    ( The   VA Business  Weather Newsletter   is a paid  subscription    service.   If you are interested    send me an   Email at  wxrisk@comcast.net  or   at   facebook.com/ wxrisk  )

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THIS  COMING   WEEKEND      (FEB 3-4-5)

SUMMARY 

The overall pattern across North America  is  GOING   to  turn in  major way   over the next 10 days.   JAN  31  FEB 1 and FEB 2  will be    SUPER MILD   over  all of MD VA  WVA  NC  DE … with   much of NC  and   eastern half of  VA   reaching  70 degrees or close to it   on the 31st and FEB 1  and Low 60s on the  1st.      A Low will track  through the  Great Lakes and   Northern New England  FEB  3…   and that  Low drives a  cold front   into  the region   FEB  3-4 … with the front stalling over  TN and  NC.    All the Models  show a  2ND Low  developing on the front  FEB 5  and this Low COULD  become a  Big  east coast winter  storm.  IF  there is  enough cold air in place   Northern NC   central and  sw VA    and eastern  MD …COULD  see a Ice  event  and   WVA   western and central  MD   could see a   good size snow event.    BUT   some data  does  NOT  have enough  cold air in place over va nc   for  snow or ice…  so this forecast is  VEERRRRRRY risky.
FRIDAY   FEB  3	SATURDAY   FEB 4	SUNDAY  FEB 5 temps here may be   significantly lower

1630  EST  JAN 10

FINAL WORD ON THIS     EVENT….

The periods of the sun this afternoon over South Central Virginia when skies were supposed to be clouding up is a pretty troubling sign if you want significant winter precipitation in Central Virginia.

Once again the medium range models have done a fabulous job in showing the threat for major winter storm for the  East coast .   Yet for   some   reason which is really hard to explain….  everybody from Arkansas to Boston is going to have seen a significant winter storm    except for Central Virginia.  That is why all the TV stations last Friday and last Thursday talked about the threat for significant winter weather and snowfall for sept Virginia.  That is what I did was talk about this event since December 29.

There are two ways to look at this.     One is the unsophisticated  self  absorbed    way  which is  based on the   your  backyard.     If  the only thing that determines whether not the forecast from  10 days ago has turned out to be correct   is the amount of snow in your own backyard …  well then  THIS  forecast has busted    …  and   that is true   if and only if  you live  in central Virginia.    It does not matter    if it  has snowed  20 feet of snow from Atlanta to Boston.   If you have this  perspective and  YOU  don’t get the snow   then  nothing happened.

Or you can take the more sophisticated point of view and realize that for a long range forecast like this…       this has been an almost perfect forecast track …  except for a small portion of the  Middle Atlantic states known as Virginia. 

As I said on the web site in the discussion on Thursday or Friday  from  last week that in order to get the big snow in Central Virginia we had to keep the southern piece of energy strong.    This is the piece of energy which bought the 14″ snow to Huntsville Alabama…  Heavy snow and ice to Northern Mississippi  and Atlanta …    to northwest portions of South Carolina    and a  ice storm into Western and central North Carolina. 

Instead what has happened is that this  1st piece of energy  has collapsed completely…  But only just in time so that Central Virginia doesn’t get  decent snow. 

This sort of bizarre snowfall pattern which always manages to screw things up  over Central Virginia has gone on for more than a decade.  The top 10  LEAST  snowiest winter    at Richmond… going  back to  1887…  feature   3 of them  in the  decade  from 2000-2009  and  two more  at in the top 20.       Even last winter which many think was a fabulous winter in terms of snow in Richmond and Central Virginia…  was actually a series of  snowfall  that in every case   was the lowest   snow total   in   the   state.

This time around what is killing    this  event for Central Virginia is the fact that the precipitation reaches   the North Carolina Virginia State line around 7:00 PM this evening.  And then it sits there for next 12 hours taking all that time to move 70 miles to the north.     During that period a lot of the cold air currently over Central Virginia begins to fall apart so that once we begin snowing temperatures are are already close to freezing in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

By 1:00 PM the northern edge of the snow line will be very close to Fredericksburg Virginia.  Interestingly enough in the next 6 hours the snow line shifts and north from Fredericksburg to Philadelphia  a distance of 225 miles in 6 hours.

The question then becomes why does it take 12 hours for the  snow band  to advance 70 miles…   to move from the Virginia North Carolina State line to Richmond….  But it only takes SIX hours  to move from Fredericksburg to   Philly.?

Part of it has to do with the dry air but if that was all there was to this then the snow certainly would not advance into   Philly in 6 hours from Fredericksburg.     Clearly the  development of the  coastal Low  speeeds the snow   band growth   over    MD and DEL.      The best case scenario for Central Virginia would be for   3   or 4 inches of snow and that  is assuming that the snow comes in by 1:00 AM   and  that the sleet changeover is delayed a few hours. 

Barring that from happening the most amount of snow we can expect is   1-2   inches.  It is also quite possible that very little snow were sleet or any precipitation of any kind falls on Tuesday as there is a bunch of model data which shows a very dry air mass and no significant precipitation of any kind falling over the Piedmont or Central Virginia all day on Tuesday.

 Some will   make the argument– and some   meteorologist in fact  did   make this argument  on the facebook page   back on JAN 8–   that it is the dual low  structure… which often   means  much less snow than what the  Models   Originally are  depicting   for  Virginia.

  True….  up to a  certain point.  Dual Low    pressure  systems do NOT  bring 14″ of snow to  Huntsville  AL and  8″   + to the  Northern GA…  and 8″  over    northwest SC  and  snow and ice to Raleigh.       Ergo  if the   1sy    piece of energy in the southern Jet stream  did NOT  die      the snow would be   faitly  decent  in central VA.

 There are no  more snows  or winter    weather events   on the  Horizon    for the  next 7 days.

1130 am   9 JAN 

CLICK  ON   THE IMAGES   TO SEE  FULL SIZE 

As you can see the  Bottom has fallen  out   with regards to central   VA    and especially the  Richmond   area.   AGAIN.

1500  EST  JAN 8

   I am clearly   going with the     last  few   runs of the    euro and euro ensembles   which have  really    been on a steady    TREND  of showing a  BIGGER Low  as  we get closer   to the   event and with MORE precip.    I   do not know what to  do with the   GGEM ( canadian) and GFS  models  since every other  run those  models  flip  flop.       In addition the    GFS ensembles  are clearly   showing  BIGGER  low  with  more precip   than the   operational  runs and looks more like        the  European  model .

 for  fast  breaking updates   in WEATHER…    facebook.com/wxrisk

 last map    issued 4pm dec 25    CLICK ON THE IMAGE FOR  FULL  SIZE

   the 18z   nam   has come out   and it shows  Something  Important.        The  12z  Nam  was the ONE    “dry-ish “   MODEL… the 12z  Nam only  had   0.25″  over  RIC and  all of eastern VA and only  0.35  over    far  SE  Virginia and    0.25″   or less   over   DCA and DWI…. 
(  0.25    times  10  =  about  3 Inches of snow).   Now in this very cold air mass  the snow ratio     is NOT going to  be  10 :1  but more like 12 or 14  to 1.  The  18z  Nam  now    has 0.50″    into all   central VA–  covering  all of     I-95  corridor  from Emporia into  DC.      So   even the    1    dry-ish   model  has given up the   battle.      And   even More important   …  1.00″ over   lower MD  eastern shore and   se VA!!!     in other words  for those   eastern areas  12-16″ of snow …    

Finally the 15z SREF  shows  0.75 over   RIC  and the I-95  from   Emporia  N  to DC…  thats 9-10 inches of snow at RIC aand    close to theat    from DCA   to the  southeast. the SREF   just crushes   Lower MD  eastern  shore and   Hampton Roads  with 15″ of snow

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1000  DEC  25

CLICK ON  ALL IMAGES   TO   SEE  FULL SIZE

 Merry Xmas     to all !!!      FIRST  … the flurries in the area NOW will stop and start … they are NOT NOT the name event.   SECOND     Believe me I wanted to make a FULL discussion last night at 12am but it was xmas and the wife put her foor down .    THIRD  ….yes I have seen the 12z GFS — the fact that the western side of the snow –over the PEIDMONT– is    slightly less with the snow …is of NO consequence.  

IF you did not get the chance to see the the video from my a longtime friend and very experienced meteorologist Glenn Schwartzar it is. This link was made at midnight last night… yes 1201 am Xmas day. The BOWTIE is Glenn’s trademark. 
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/breaking/Changes-in-Snow-Forecast-Sunday-112446074.html

He made that Video because he was concerned of the dramatic shift in all the weather models which began on Friday afternoon but which was largely discounted throughout the weather committee because of a strongly worded statement issued by HPC.   If you dont know what or who HPC — google it– they are a branch of the national weather service and are located up in the Washington, DC beltway area.   They are among the finest collection of scientists and researchers in my opinion in the world. Amazingly from some of the super weather of nerds and facts other out there… They were quite upset and disturbed that HPC issued this special statement on Friday afternoon regarding the bad data which got into some of the weather models .

The problem is that if you don’t know if the bad data is affecting the model or not…. so you just can’t rely on the forecast and quite frankly I would rather have that information to make the decision then not knowing at all.

That being said the Non contaminated American weather Models overnight continue to show a dramatic shift to the west of this coastal storm. And it is NOT Just the American models but the Canadian the British and the European models with a violent and severe almost unprecedented shift in the track of this coastal storm. This is what has anybody up and all arms and concerned this morning.This is not just a little bit of snow in the forecast calling for dusting to 1 inch.    This is a whole different kettle of fish and the wind and the amount of snow coming for Eastern Virginia interior portions of central and Eastern North Carolina and the lower Maryland Eastern shore is going to be impressive.

The light off and on snow we will see across the Middle Atlantic states today is not the storm. That snow will be flurries at times and then stop. Do not be fooled –the main event comes tonight and most of the day on Sunday.    Tat means if you need to go out and get some supplies a what have you and make preparations you have time provider of course you can find stores open today.

This most affected portion of the commonwealth will be the from Richmond to the south and east and to the Northeast. As you get closer to the BAY the more snow you will see and the winds will be stronger. In the original forecast from back earlier in the week …I maintain that northeastern Virginia — the middle peninsula and northern neck areas —would see the most snow out of this and that appears to be the case. In addition much of the lower Maryland Eastern shore is likely to break 12″ of snow as well.

There will be a very sharp cut off in the snow shield here. Right now the models are driving the significant snow line — 6″ or more deep into the Piedmont and almost as far west as Roanoke and Charlottesville… and into metro DC and Baltimore. However this subject to some change and there is a risk that the western side of the storm may not have quite that much snow. If you are south and east of I95 in Maryland you will see much more snow a special edition approach Patuxent / St Marys and Annapolis.

One last point I want to make about eating Crow and   being accused  by    Channel  6  of  being  Chicken Little  sayingin  the Sky is falling on be right or wrong.

I hope by now many of you realize that in the initial forecast made earlier in the week …. there was a serious threat which has now come back.   was not crying the   “sky is falling for NO   reason” .    When I believe the forecast had busted the premise of that was a severe winter storm which I thought was coming.   That is why portion of the Channel 6 interview where they instered that cartoon of Chicken Llittle … was a cheap shot.     I don’t know if Aaron and or Zach were directly connected with  that bit or not … But as we can see the from the current data and what is about to happen…   I was NOT saying   ” the sky is falling ”    for  NO reason

THAT is why it is a cheap shot by Channel 6.

This winter storm coming tonight and tomorrow IS the same winter storm I talked about earlier in the week.    BUT…. it is not going to be it the EXACT same severe and long lasting event.   Therefore It would be inaccurate of me to claim that I got the forecast perfectly correct after all.    So I am not going to do that . However I did face the music by going to channel 6 and I was going to face the music by going back and WRVA on Monday and admitting that I busted.    The question today is this…. If we assume the model data is correct and we do get this major winter storm late tonight and Sunday… where will Channel 6 ‘s apology to forthcoming?

Will they Man up Like I did?  Inquiring minds want to know.

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0830 EST  DEC    24

 While it is clear that the major winter storm which I was concerned about early in the week is not going to materialize for central and Eastern Virginia North Carolina and the lower Maryland Eastern shore… there is still a threat of seeing some decent accumulating snow for SOME portions of these areas.

For that reason I am not yet willing to assert that NO SNOW — oh excuse me dusting to 1 ” – is the only thing that is going happen as some other forecasters have already committed to . The weather model data was so extreme yesterday in terms of taking this system from the southeast US coast then way out to sea that there is really only one way or possible trend we can see in the short range models over the next 12 to 24 hours. That trend can only shift WEST in the models.
That does NOT mean a major or servere   snow is threat is coming back to central VA. It is NOT.   FOR CENTRAL VA THAT   IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN …

But for SOUTHEAST VA 6 or more inches is STLL possible and for that area … that is a BIG deal. For Central VA and Richmond Even a slight shift back to the west of 25 to 50 miles will Bring in a band of moderate snow into this area.The first sign or hint of the strand weekend with the 0z Friday GFS run which developed a very powerful low pressure area well off the East coast but that ends up hammering southeastern New England including Boston with high winds and heavy snow on dec 27. Southeastern England is still under the gun with respect to getting a major snowstorm.

This slight shift to the west by the 0z and 6z GFS places a band of LIGHT snow over CENTRAL va out to Highway 15 and moderate snow well EAST of I-95 — the eastern third of Virginia into all of Hamton Roads and eastern North Carolina and lower Maryland Eastern. Right now the BEST case scenario for MAX snowfall… would be the following
Virginia Beach 6″
Newport News 5″
Richmond Va  3″
Salisbury Maryland 5″
Elizabeth City NC 6″
Nags Head NC 7″
Emporia VA 3″
Fredericksburg va 2″.

Understand that this right now is the best case for Max snowfall not necessarily be actual forecast as of 830MA dec 24 .   

At this point in time the shift to the west of the Low and its associated snow shield is not enough the forecast any sort of snowfall over 1 inch in areas west of I-95″ in in Northern VA or in central NC or in central MD

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500 pPM  DEC 23

Time for me to eat it. Unlike others I do NOT have to wait Until the very last second for the event hoping that something MGHT happened so I dont look too bad.
Someone is at the Door… its Pamela Anderson (in her prime) and she is here to show me what a BUST is.

To say that I am surprised by the massive changes in ALL of the weather models today would be an understatement. I having been doing this a long period of time and this is about as big a bust with the weather model performance as I ever seen in the MEDIUM RANGE — day 3 to day 7. The only thing that comes close to this event is the March 2001 NO storm.

Now if you are not a super weather nerd like me let me briefly remind you what happened in March 2001. The March 2001 storm was a much publicized / hyped winter storm threat which was forecasted by all of the weather models to bring blizzard like conditions to Washington, DC through Boston MARCH 1-2, 2001. On an old web site I did a study on THAT storm and what went wrong. The model agreement was complete in every aspect. HPC — the big boys as NWS forecast HQ– as well as the weather channel and local TV stations throughout the entire northeast metropolitan area were bout as bullish and the aggressive with this storm as you can ever see. Even exceeding my perspective on this storm over the last few days.

And nothing happened. Oh sure there was a significant snowstorm but nothing spectacular in Eastern New England. I was actually one of the few forecast is at the time who downplayed the threat.

What happened today with the weather models was just stunning. Usually when you move from the medium-range into the short range forecasting time period… there is often some sort of adjustment with the forecast or the storm track. That is to be expected. As I stated several times yesterday ..the severe or extreme forecast by the European model for the record or near record setting snowfall for central and Eastern Virginia was just a possibility. But all of the data –and not just the European model –showed a major east coast winter storm that would still drop heavy snow over much of North Carolina Virginia Maryland Delaware southeast Pennsylvania New Jersey Southeast New York and Southern New England.

Even as recently as 5:00 AM DEC 23 the GFS show a very decent Low pressure area of fairly close to the coast and a wide swath of significant precipitation over eastern third of VA … 0.50 to 1.25″. That would be a very good snowstorm if that were to verify.
http://tinyurl.com/2egos3w

Six hours later…. Nothing.

Today’s Model data shows that there is essentially no storm that forms anywhere near the coast. Eventually a significant Low pressure area does forms … but it is well out to sea and that is not what we are supposed to be. There is always going to be some adjustment in the forecasts as you moves from the Medium range to the Short Term as to which areas are going to see rain vs snow…. 3″ or ….6″ or 12″ . But a complete reversal like this from a major storm to nothing is a real shock.

That being said I am not gonna sit here and hide behind weather models. My forecast for the major winter storm is going to bust.

I am NOT going to be correct. Bottom Line — I screwed the Pooch.

I am going to ask WRVA and Jimmy Barrett give me time one morning perhaps after the holiday… to “fess up” and admit my Bust and apologize to central and Eastern Virginia listeners.

I do want to communicate to you that this was not about hype or getting hits on the web page… Or anything like that. Long before this event came along and all the publicity came my way WXRISK.COM has been out there. Moroever if you go to the web site you will see that there is actually very LITTLE advertising on the web site — much to the disappointment of family members and friends. This was not a case of jumping the gun because ONE weather models show the a big storm one time. I really did believe there was a lot a model data which supported a major winter storm for the Middle Atlantic region an especially for Virginia and North Carolina.

I will take crap for being wrong… and I should Because I am and that IS the way the game is played. But it is NOT fair to argue that this is all about publicity and hype.

If I had to do it over again I probably would say things and do things differently but the truth is I am a very direct type of guy. Most of my business and concerns has to do with people who trade grain in energy. Most of those folks are very abrupt and direct and they don’t have a lot of time for crap. And that directness has affected me in some ways I was not aware of. Now that WXRISK has gone viral… I probably need to spend a lot of time rethinking HOW I should chnage the way I say things … but NOT what I say.

OK lets get on to the forecast. As I stated over the past few days the key for the big event happening was that the system would come in SLOWER …not until Saturday night and and continue through most of the day on on Sunday. Clearly that is not the case based upon the new data which brings and light snow into much of the commonwealth on Saturday and Saturday afternoon. That is the good news if you want a white Christmas…. But that is BAD news if you want a big snow.

And however there is still a threat of seeing a decent snowfall for EASTERN va (only) and I am not prepared to call that off completely.Lets talk about the 12z GFS ensemble.  For those of you who again are not weather geeks weather Models Ensembles consists of 20 and or 20 different ” versions” of the same model which are one at the same time . The idea is to get a the wide variety of model solutions are outcomes. So if you are on the models 20 times and you get 10 model solutions for showing let’s say a a big snow… Five of them showing a moderate snow and five members showing no snow at all… The probability (15 of 20) is that you are going to see if a moderate or significant snowfall .

Thats the idea.      This Image shows us some of the gfs ensemble individual members.
http://tinyurl.com/23su8wg

If you take a look of the image you will see that I’ve highlighted several of these individual GFS ensemble members showing a major storm very close to the coast and dropping significant or heavy snow over Eastern Virginia. Of course it’s not a majority but it is a significant portion and that is telling me the that it still possible that this whole scenario may shift back closer to the coast.

In fact the model data today is so far to the east and so extreme that if this going to be any shift at all … it will be back to the West and it will begin on the weather models over the next 24 HRS. That does mean it is going to occur . Just that it might — MIGHT — shift back to the west. If this shift back to the west of the storm track it is going to all happen it will occur on the weather models tonight or tomorrow. If it does not happen by the the midday Friday models (12z runs) it is not going to.

Lastly the total Mis read of this event by the weather models and the event last week — is probably telling us something about this winter. This is a La Nina Winter and that fact is … I think ….the major reason why all of these weather Models in the day 3 to Day time frame are performing poorty. In addition the data shows that since 1950 there have only been 2 Moderate snowstorms for the East Cost cities and no mJaor ones during La Nina winters.

This fact is something I need to keep in mind as we go into January February and March

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7:30 AM EST DEC 23

First I apologize for the delayed in getting this morning statement out but last night really acquired me to get some decent sleep for a while .

The major change in the weather models overnight shows that the the European model which has been showing an extreme scenario for the past several model runs or cycles … is no longer stalling the intense Low pressure area off the the Southeast Virginia Coast for 24 HRS . Because the early morning European model does NOT stall the Low… the Model does NOT produce near record snowfall for central and Eastern Virginia into the Lower MD eastern shore.

That does not mean there will be NO significant snowstorm for central and East Virginia. Indeed the 6am GFS Model is again closer to the coast than the 1am GFS was last night . The 6am GFS and GFS ensemble shows 0.50 to 1.00″ liquid over eastern third of Virginia from this event and of course it is all snow.

The important model Trend in overnight weather models is that we are still seeing strong signal that there will be a significant or sharp cut off to the western edge of the snow. This trend will be reflected in the new probabilities forecasts as it comes out.

For example it is still quite possible as I have said all along that areas such as Roanoke and far western NC…. Winchester VA could miss the snow completely. Airports and locations such as Washington, DC Baltimore and Philadelphia COULD see or wide changes and their snowfall totals across the metropolitan area. This means that areas just to the north and west of these cities could see a LOT less snow than areas to the south and east of those cities.

Southeastern England is still under the gun with respect to getting a major snowstorm.

There is still an awful lot of time here with these various weather models for different changes and solutions to come out. The key piece of information that we have to resolve is how strong will this massive system be as it comes out of California today … And how is it going to interact with the piece of energy in the jet stream coming out of Central Canada.

Those two pieces of energy are going to be eight and that’s was going to develop the storm. How they meet and how they Merge will determine
1) where the Low will form
2) where the Low pressure area will track
3) where the heavy snow band is going to be
4) and any chance for the Low pressure area to stall like the European model was depicting all day yesterday.

For today the key aspect to figuring out what is going to happen with this winter storm will be the timing. If the snow was coming in Christmas afternoon or Christmas evening into central and Southern Virginia ….that means that the system is developing a little faster strongly implies that the Low pressure area is not going to stall off the Virginia Coast and bring a potentially record snowfall .

If the snow hold off until Saturday night and early Sunday morning that would imply a much slower solution and the potential for a very high or possiblye near record snowfall .

More slow… more snow . Less slow less snow.

It doesn’t take a meteorologist for anyone to know how beastly hot the Summer of 2010 has been across the Commonwealth. And not just over Virginny…. but for all of Maryland Delaware the Carolinas and through the Deep South it’s been a beastly hot Summer.  And not surprisingly it also been quite dry with much of the mid Atlantic region moving into various drought stages as date to date by  folks at   USDA  / NOAA’s drought monitor index.

At Richmond June and July 2010 set the record for the most 100+ degree days ever recorded (now at 11) .   But all that is about to change and it is  very probable— but not yet certain— that the period from say August 15/16  to August 30 will not see any more of these 100+ degree  max temperature days.

The change to a much much wetter  pattern  begins when a Major Low pressure develops over Hudson’s Bay and Eastern Canada on AUG 13 and 14.   This Low will carve out a Major trough in the Jet stream over the eastern half of the Conus and send a strong cold front sweeping south and east through the Midwest. This front will reach the Appalachian Mountains AUG 15-16.   At this point the cold front will stall on a line from Georgia to New York State and in doing so this stalled front will become a focusing mechanism for widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms up and down the front.

In this prolonged interval ….from say AUG 15-16 to AUG 20-21… it is NOT going to rain ALL the time.   But in this type of pattern the strong inflow from the Gulf and Atlantic Ocean off the SE Coast will feed abundant moisture into this front. At times the rainfall especially from I-95 west into the mountains will be the very heavy.

This link shows the POSSIBLE rainfall from the Wednesday Midday GFS ensemble mean just for the period from AUG 16 to the 20th.     More importantly  as  we move closer to the  event  the   model data is  increasing the   rainfall amounts and coverage . Some areas of this 7 day period   could see 5-10″ of rain  and more over the elevated terrain in Northern GA far northern SC western NC and western half of VA.    There are of course of several aspects to this unfolding event that are uncertain. . First is possible that the front could move through North Carolina Virginia and Maryland faster than what the model data right now is depicting. If that happens… it would end the rains much but significant rains are still fall across the most of commonwealth NC MD DE eastern PA and southern NJ.

It is also quite possible that the front will stay stalled over the East coast as the Bermuda High/western Atlantic Ridge builds into the East coast. Indeed this is what the 12z GFS and European weather models are depicting to occur after August 21. This would continue the rainy pattern fpr a few more days.

7   JULY 1100  EDT

I am not going to comment about the heat this week anymore since story out there since it is out there anybody is now talking about the extreme heat over the Middle Atlantic region . However here at WXRISDK.COM… Where the focus is day 3 to day 30 this heat wave is essentially over.

The models this morning are not any clearer with regard to this weekend forecast    JULY 9-10-11

The Issue is whether or not the cold front which arrives on July 9 is going to clear the East coast in time to save most or a part of the weekend OR whether the front will get hung up along the East coast for most of the week end.

JULY   16-17-18

Weather models continue to show a message a system developing over southwest Canada next week which will track due east a cross or just to the north of the USA Canada border. This major Low will track through Quebec and drags its cold fromnt through the Midwest and into the East Coast late on July 15 or the 16th.

If the current weather models are to be believed… this front will drive steadily off the East coast in the first half of the weekend. This would allow for a cooler air mass to come in and fairly dry conditions for the second half the weekend.

When you get into July and early August… One has to be skeptical of weather models developing ery strong and deep troughs which moves these cold fronts rapidly across the Midwest and the East coast.

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5 JULY   1000 EDT

These first couple of days of July had been spectacular over the eastern Conus with this large surface High dropping southeast from the  Great Lakes towards the Middle Atlantic Coast. The lower temperatures and humidity even reach down as far as northern and cerntral FL.

But as I mentioned last week that  is now changing.    Sunday’s max temps surged  into the M and U 90s from Boston to Southern Virginia…. as the dome is beginning to develop.  The heat will reach maximum intensity tomorrow July 6 and Wednesday July 7.   The hottest temperature ever recorded in Central Virginia/ Richmond was 107 setback in the summer of 1918 and the hottest temperature ever recorded in July was 105° also set back in the summer of 1977.     I think we have a chance to tie one of those records this week. As I said last week …the intense heat will not just affect VA but extend into NC and into all the big cities of the I-95 corridor.

JULY 9-10-11
The MAIN issue for this coming weekend for VA and all of the Middle Atlantic region will be the approaching cold front.    The European model delays the cold front until JULY 10 whereas the GFS and CMC (Canadian) Models move the front into the northeast by July 9.    There is some question as to how much shower and thunderstorm activity this cold front will have as it moves into the East Coast…. but it will end the heat.

If the cold front drives steadily off the coast Saturday and Sunday should be pretty decent days.    Much cooler…. and fairly but not Totally dry.    The closer you to the Chesapeake Bay … the northern outer banks of NC as well as the delamrva region… the more likely that the cloud cover will stay pretty heavy and the shower and thunderstorm threat will be a bit stronger.

JULY 16-17-18

The weather models are continuing to show a very active pattern over the Pacific Northwest Western Canada and South Central Canada. Those areas are in trouble with regard to getting their crops planted as it’s been so wet and Sunday that farmers in that portion of North America are running way behind normal with respect to typical planting conditions/ progress.

The models are showing another major system moving across South Central Canada JULY 14-15-16.   This strong Low will probably have a fairly strong cold front associate with it which will move into the northeast at some some portion of the weekend.    Right now the odds are pretty good that this weekend is gonna be a fairly wet one across a good portion of the commonwealth.

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1100 EDT    JUNE  28  

This updated Forecast discussion is now being placed in the GENERAL weather section in addition to the Virginia weather section because the threat for MAJOR …possibly even a historic Heat Wave for the Middle Atlantic region is increasing. It also appears to be spreading into the lower portions of the Ohio Valley— aka the southern ECB – the Tennessee Valley and the Deep South.

Surprisingly the THREAT or the potential for seeing this sort of serious heat for several days in these areas is getting very little attention. I am afraid that is because there seems to be an over emphasis on the GFS and the GFS ensemble. This makes it less sense when one considers the unbelievabley BAD models performance by the operational GFS and the GFS ensemble with regard to hurricane Alex.

As we can see from this particular Image of the 6/30 run of 0z GFS for JULY 6-7-8 … The model that keeps the trough over the plains states moving straight through the Midwest. This ensures that there is no significant ridge in or dome that forms over the eastern Conus in any way shape or form.    Really this is a CHICKEN vs EGG question. If we had a strong ridge over the eastern Conus the trough to slow down.. and temps would soar.

Here is the 0z  6/30   run of   the  operational European model from early this morning .    At 500 MB we can clearly see the model continuing to form a very strong dome over the Middle Atlantic states and the Dark red shading shows 850 temperatures of +24c to +27c… which translates at the surface to temperatures well above 100°. Keep in Mind that here in Central Virginia we have already several days with temperatures above 100°.

These maps in ages shows the forecasted Max temperatures for our day afternoon of July 5 July 6 July 7 July 8 and July 9. The band of 100 plus degree temperatures is quite impressive and as you can see that there are two large areas of 105-110° over a portion of the commonwealth on July 6 and over VA into North central NC and over western TN and southeast MO on July 7.

Just in case you were wondering the record high temperature for the month of July in the city of Richmond is 105° which was set back on July 6, 1977.

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1100   EDT   JUNE  28

Now that I taken a week off because of my summer vacation … it is now s time to go back to work and figure out the weekend SUMMER forecasts for the commonwealth. Today will probably be the third day in the last five or temperatures reached over 100°here in Central Virginia. The cold front which is going to ride on the 30th will certainly be a welcome relief and it will ensure that the upcoming July 4 weekend will be spectacular. Friday, July 2 and Saturday, July 3 will feature and seasonal temperatures with low humidities an absolutely no friend of any sort of rain whatsoever.

Temperatures will begin to warm up of course by July 4 but this will be a great weekend so you should get out and enjoy it if you can.

However, that a weekend where facing a very interesting meteorological dilemma because the European and the gfs weather models are forecasting very different scenario as for the entire eastern Conus …. In the Middle Atlantic region …. For the period from July 5 to July 9.

Both weather models move the deep trough over the east coast out into the western Atlantic by July 4. This forces the large cool area of high pressure over the eastern Conus to move off the coast as well. In response for the trough moving off the east coast the strong ridge over the Rockies and the Plains rapidly expands the east.

The European models developing a heat dome over the eastern third of the Conus. The GFS does not.

Both models agree that another major trough will come out of Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest during the July 4 weekend which will track through the northern Rockies and into the Upper Plains by July 4. This front will undoubtedly bring widespread significant rain to the the Plains and the Upper Mississippi valley and some of the ramains /moisture of Alex will undoubtedly get pulled into the cold front so the rainfall amounts over the central Plains & the Mississippi Valley could be impressive.

The 0z Monday 6/28 run of the GFS moving right through the Midwest because the the model has no ridging or dome forming over the east coast . The Euro shows and a massive heat wave developing with temperatures rising above 100°over much of the Middle Atlantic states including the big cities of the northeast with the heat expanding into the Ohio Valley the Tennessee Valley into the Carolinas and the Deep South .

They will be interesting to follow this and see which of these very different solutions will be correct.

1100  JUNE 16

There is not really much to change in this forecast for this coming weekend  JUNE   18-19-20   as all the data shows is gonna be a beastly hot weekend for the middle of june across the Middle Atlantic states. The driving mechanism here has to do with the overall pattern– which features a strong ridge over the eastern Conus and the deep trough over the West Coast.  These two features are in a symbiotic relationship with each other– which of the weather business is known as a Teleconnection.   The deep trough on the West Coast forces the atmosphere to respond by developing a strong ridge downstream which in this case happens to be over the Deep South.  This is exactly what I thought was going to happen for the summer pattern and so far it appears to be developing quite nicely.

Synoptically the key feature is going to be the major system which is going to move through North Dakota and southern Manitoba on Thursday.  This Low’s associated cold front will move into the Upper Plains and the Great Lakes area this weekend and early next week whereupon the cold front will stall.   These areas will probably see the numerous heavy thunderstorm clusters developing over the next 5 days.

However this front will not reach any portion of the northeast.   Indeed the actual low pressure area track through Ontario then into central Quebec and this will will serve to reinforce the ridge over the eastern Conus. As a result temperatures will increase dramatically this weekend over all of the Middle Atlantic with W or SW winds and strong High pressure off the se coast I would not be surprised to see temperatures break 100°over much of the commonwealth on Sunday.

Areas just to the north however will be substantially cooler… And once you get north of say interstate 80 in Northern Pennsylvania Northeast New Jersey and New York City temperatures will be only around 90°.

Coming out of the weekend the models continue to show that a dome is going to form that will be imbedded in the large ridge across the lower plains and the Deep South. The European model is more bullish with this dome and stronger then the GFS. The effect for VA weather will be to keep temperatures at least in the middle 90s for a good portion of the commonwealth from June 21-24.

WEEKEND #2   JUNE 25-26-27…

Not surprisingly the 0Z and 6z GFS want to bring a fairly strong trough and surface cold front thru the Middle Atlantic and the New England states during this weekend which would provide for cooler temperatures and some showers and thunderstorms.

However the European as well as the GFS ensemble does not support that idea .  These models show a much shallower trough but only moves through the Great Lakes and New England and has no real impact over the Middle Atlantic states. As a result of looks like the last weekend of june could be another rather very hot weekend.

It is probable that for the Rest of the Summer 2010 forecasters will be dealing with the strong Ridge over the Lower Plains and Deep South.  It will be the movement of this Ridge that will be the determining factor of How hot VA gets and for how long.

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Not only have we moved into the beginning of meteorological Summer but the overall atmosphere pattern clearly supports a True Summer and NOT Spring like pattern.

The current pattern continues to feature a persistent trough in the jet stream over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies.  At times the trough extends into the central Rockies where the Great Basin.   To counter this persistent trough the atmosphere develops a ridge over the southeastern US.    At times the ridge extends into into the Southwest states and the Lower Plains.

We can see this very clearly on the 0z Monday European map for early Monday morning.   

By Day7 not much has changed… The trough remains persistent over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies… and the Ridge remains strong over the Deep South. And by Day 10… very little has changed. In fact the model shows a dome developing over the Deep South that is embedded in the ridge. 850 mb temperatures surge to +24c which equates to service temperatures in the middle or upper 90s. As you can see from this map those sorts of temperatures do reach into central and Southern Virginia.

JUNE 18-19-20.

 of the three days and Friday will be the coolest and less Humid as High pressure and over the Ohio Valley moves into the Northeast.  This High will not be very strong and l move off the coast for the weekend which means winds will become SW and the heat & humidity will build.  Most of the commonwealth should see temperatures in the middle 90s on the 19th and 20th.

There will be a cold front that tries to move through late on the 20th or early in the 21st.  At this Point I don’t know if this front will have enough push behind so that it reaches into the commonwealth or what sort of thunderstorm activity if any this front might have.

WEEK 2 JUNE 25 – 26 – 27:

The 0Z European ensemble data remains quite impressive. It shows a very strong ridge centered over the Ohio Valley. The 0z GFS ensemble is NOT as Bullsih with this Dome idea but the 0z GFS ensemble still shows a strong Ridge in place over most of the Deep South which means above normal temperatures… Even by the standards of late JUNE.

1100  JUNE  2

The model data continues to shift here as we go through the middle portion of a week.   Earlier it looked like a major trough was going to move through the Midwest and the northeast this weekend– mainly on Sunday June 6 and Monday June 7.  But each subsequent run of the various models — such as the GFS Euro and CMC– is showing that this trough is weaker because the energy coming in from the Pacific is so strong that the trough is really is not getting a chance to amplify as it moves through the Great Lakes and the Northeast.  It looks like a pretty good cold front for the Great Lakes and from Pennsylvania northward into New England on June 6-7 .  But as things  stand right now for the Lower Middle Atlantic states this cold front may not get far enough south to bring about any sort of significant shower thunderstorm activity  SUNDAY   June  7.

Coming out of the weekend the forecast is going to get complicated.

The model data shows that of the strong ridge over the southwest states will attempt a slide into the Lower Plains and the Delta region for several days starting on June 5… nad lasting through June 8.

Indeed the model data from the European and the GFS shows temperatures greater than 100°… and in some locations as high as 105° over large portions of eastern NM TX OK A and M- U 90s into southern half of COL KS ARK and LA.

Typically when you get a ridge like this forming over the Lower Plains as it comes out of the southwest states… the ridge likes to build north and east into the central Plains and the Midwest.   But in this particular situation the very strong Pacific jet stream will be racing across the top of the ridge essentially in a west east direction through the Central Plains the Midwest and into the northeast all next week.

This does TWO things… FIRST this sort of strong active Pacific jet stream ensures that the heat over the lower plains will not get any further north then say interstate 70. Second this sort of strong flow becomes DIFFLUENT aloft on the synoptic scale.   In other words pieces of energy moving in the jet stream (vot maxes) will cause thunderstorm development and thunderstorm clusters to form over the central Plains and the Midwest… and possibly into the Middle Atlantic region.

JUNE 11-12-13

As we approach the second weekend JUNE 11-12-13… Which in turn will allow for the strong ridge over the southwest states to begin to slide or expand eastward.  Without the trough lingering over the northeast the ridge will have a much better chance to expand into the central plains and the Midwest .  This could be the beginning of the first significant hot. For most of the Midwest the Deep South the Tenn valley and the Middle Atlantic region.  The euro and GFS ensemble data is quite impressive here showing the ridge to the setting up over the these areas whiile on the West Coast the trough stays put.

The West coast trough the serving as an anchor in the overall pattern because as long as the trough stays strong and deep over the west coast / Pacific NW the Ridge stays strong and Deep over the Plains and Midwest and East Coast.

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1200 EDT   MAY 31

Although most of the commonwealth has not seen significant showers and thunderstorms over this long weekend there have been a few areas which are been hit pretty hard. Here in downtown Chester– mind you there is no such place as downtown Chester it’s just sort of a phrase I use– we been hit with two significant thunderstorms and the last three days– one during the early morning hours of Friday 1-2am — and again Saturday evening when a series of storms cells kept “popping ” up over the region.

And judging by the Monday afternoon radar looks like we will probably see some more storms later on this afternoon and on Tuesday.

　JUNE  4-5-6

Last week many of the weather models are showing a pretty strong cold front associate with a fairly strong upper trough moving through the Midwest and the northeast JUNE 3-4.  That still appears to be the case to the model data here on the 0z and 12 runs Monday appeared to be somewhat weaker with this front.  This means that Friday, June 4 is likely be a fairly stormy start to the weekend especially in the afternoon in the evening.  At this point most of the model data is driving the frontal off the coast which should mean that June 5 and June 6 would be decent days with less humidity somewhat cooler temperatures and dry conditions.

However the European and the GFS models here at midday are showing a bit of a change.  Theese models   take of the next big shortwave in the jet stream across the Upper Plains and moving through the Great Lakes where surface Low pressure develops. The Low tracks ENE thru the Great Lakes into New York State Sunday, June 6 then up into Maine on June 7. Normally this sort track is not a big thunderstorms threat for the Middle Atlantic region and especially for Virginia.

But because of the shape or configuration of the jet stream…  (the 0z GFS and euro show a very diffulent aloft jet stream pattern)…   the thunderstorm potential for Sunday afternoon June 6 over the commonwealth appears to be pretty strong.   Right now the model data is favoring central and Southern Virginia being hit with a series of thunderstorms… But it is still too far out in to be certain of this.

WEEKEND  # 2   JUNE 11-12 -13.

Right now the early call on the second weekend shows a significant ridge developing in the jet stream over the central lower plains and the delta region.  The GFS and the GFS ensemble is pretty bullish with this pattern building the ridge into the heart of the Midwest and forcing the jet stream north of VA.  This was set up a somewhat drier more, pattern and potentially bring significant heat into Western portions of Virginia. However… The European ridge is somewhat flatter and not as amplified so the Middle Atlantic region could still be in a fatal location for thunderstorm development because of the jet stream not shifting to the north.

0836   EDT   24  MAY

MAY 28-29-30-31

　We are rapidly approaching the first big weekend of the summer months that being a long memorial day holiday weekend. Like so many things that are important and significant in this country the holiday of Memorial Day was founded the cause of the trauma of the civil war…. As was baseball the Red Cross and Rapid mass movement of armies by railroad.

The pattern going into this week   will feature a strong ridge/ dome over the Midwest which will bring about several warm/ hot days for that portion of the nation.  However the warmth will not really get into the Middle Atlantic states this week as the ridge is actually retrograde– moving WEST towards the Plains and not towards the East coast.

Of some concern is the development of a low pressure area in the southwest Atlantic which has been showing up on the various global weather models for the last several days. There’s been some talk from private weather services– such as Joe Bastardi up in accu weather land — at this system could become a significant tropical feature but that in fact it really is fantasy and not likely to happen.

There is a small chance this feature could become a subtropical low but even when you are always dealing with the the “extreme” scenario that JB loves to do… Reality has to be a factor. In this case the reality has to do with amazingly cold water which continues to exist over the southwest Atlantic Ocean. This large pool of cold water in the southwest Atlantic Ocean can be seen here.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

　http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif 

If you think  that this system has  a chance to  develop with of SSTA that are running anywhere from 1-3° below normal in the southwest Atlantic in late May… You probably need to slow down and rethink that.

Assuming this sort of sub tropical Low does in fact stay off the middle Atlantic Coast this weekend the long Holiday weekend should be OK for the Middle Atlantic region.  There will be a weak cold front moving through PA NH MD DE VA traveling from north to south that will bring a few passing showers to the area Friday afternoon and evening.  Parenthetically it is THIS cold front on Friday that will ensure the Low over the southwest Atlantic Ocean will be driven out to sea.

The rest of the holiday weekend looks to be pretty decent with warm temperatures but no serious heat and no significant rain threats on either Saturday Sunday or Monday. In summary at this point looks to be ideal.

JUNE 4-5-6

The retrogression of the ridge will continue as we move into early June 2010 and will eventually reach the West coast. This would generally support some sort of trough position being located over some portion of the eastern Conus. This is strongly indicated by the European ensemble mean position…. Which shows are significant positive height anomaly over central and Southern California and other one over Eastern Canada.

The 0z GFS ensemble mean is mcuh more scattered and all over the Place. Some other individual members have a pretty significant trough over the Midwest and the northeast… while other members show a flat wide ridge over CA and the sw states and a strong Pacific jet coming into the Pacific NW and sw Canada. The jet then spreads as it moves into the Plains and Midwest—- the flow becomes more diffluent aloft– which could set up a fairly strongly pattern for the Midwest and the Middle Atlantic states.

12 MAY  1101  EDT

WEEKEND   MAY 14-15-16

At this point the forecast for this coming weekend of MAY 14-15-16 seems to be in pretty good shape.  The second major rain system for the Midwest in three days will be developing tonight and Thursday and this is likely to be a major rain event for that area and even into the Tennessee Valley— where they do NOT need rain.  The question for the weekend weather in VA is how does the front react when it crosses were reaches the East coast and specifically the Middle Atlantic region?

Friday looks HOT with L to M 90s possible over the southern half of the state .  The data shows the moving through front Friday night .  You would think that was the sort of temperature contrast and heat ahead of the front that weather models would show more shower and thunderstorm activity with the front passage.  However once again it looks like that the front will be weakening as it moves through the area and the associated Low-pressure region over the Ohio Valley will be tracking up into Pennsylvania and New York and away from VA.  This has all the makings that of a weakening front which is one reasons why the data is so dry with the cold front passage.

Right now it appears to be that the best chance for seeing any sort of shower thunderstorm activity will be over the western third of the state and into West Virginia late Friday night. And all the data shows the front clearing the North Carolina border by Saturday morning with high pressure building into the region.  Assuming this doesn’t change it means that most of Saturday and all Sunday should be mighty nice across the Middle Atlantic region in general and especially across the commonwealth.

MAY 21-22-23

There is no doubt now that the overall pattern is about to undergo significant change as we move closer and closer to the beginning of Summer 2010.  One of the reasons why the pattern has been so wet across the Midwest over the last several weeks is that the mean trough position has been located over the West coast.  This of course is significantly different from what we saw over this past Winter and very different from the pattern we saw on the Autumn of 2009 the Summer of 2009 and the Spring of 2009– all of which featured the mean trough being located over the East coast or Midwest.

In response to the mean trough being located over the West coast– and if you know anybody on the West Coast I am sure they have told you how cold and wet the Spring of 2010 has been for that area– the atmosphere is developing ridge over the southeastern states.

Systems coming out of the mean trough or tracking in a ENE or NE direction across the Plains into the Midwest and then into the Northeast.  During the Spring months this sort of pattern can be very wet pattern because a southeast ridge allow persistent High pressure to be located off the SE Coast.  The low level circulations from that High feed moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Midwest so that when these areas of Low pressure and get ejected from California and the Great Basin… they have a lot of moisture work with.

Hence the wet pattern. ya Follow?

However as we move into mid and late May the jet stream is now shifting further to the north– as it always does.  As a result the mean trough is no longer dropping as far south as Southern California and Vegas.  Instead the mean trough on the West coast now only drops as far south as the Pacific Northwest.  Keeping the overall pattern the same but displacing it to the north means at the southeast ridge is now getting a chance to build into the Plains and the Midwest.  This is exactly what happened in week two across the Conus .

The problem is that also leaves a weakness along the East coast for some sort of trough to develop.  The formation of a deep trough over the East coast which is what the GFS is depicting… Which trap the strong ridge in place over the Plains & Midwest for several days and allow the first series heat of the season to develop in that area.  For the East coast however and for this particular weekend a strong trough over the East coast would mean below normal temperatures and possible showers.

Not surprisingly the operational gfs is the most aggressive of all the models with a solution for the strong trough and a possible Low pressure area along the East coast.  The European & Canadian also have a trough there but not nearly as strong and the coastal Low-pressure area is very weak.  At this point all I can tell you is that looks like temperatures will be below normal on the East Coast and it could be some scattered showers across either the middle Atlantic and New England depending on the possible formation of any Low pressure development.

If you are west of the Appalachians however is going to turn hot and dry for several days to the last 3rd and 4th week of MAY 2010.

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10 MAY 1100 EDT

The weekend turn out to be pretty well with regard to the actual forecaster made from last week. Saturday was the warmest day of the week for much of the state SOUTH of I-64 . There was lots of sunshine and very strong winds which made the day quite comfortable if you don’t mind when the conditions. The front it comes to the state almost completely dry.

MAY 14-15-16
Over the next three days there going to be too major low pressure areas coming out of the western Conus — specifically the Great Basin region. These Low will bring widespread significant rain to much of the plains and the Midwest as well as the Great Lakes and Northern New England. In response to this persistent trough over the western third of the US… The atmosphere is countering it by developing another strong ridge over the southeast states this week. As a result of these two Low pressure areas will track through the Great Lakes and into New England and not really impact the Middle Atlantic region and the commonwealth of Virginia. This is southeast ridge will cause temperatures to run Above Normal from Tuesday into Friday over VA and all of the Middle Atlantic region.

It is the second Low pressure area that in tracking through New England will eventually send its weak cold front into the Middle Atlantic region the on MAY 14.   The front will probably have some showers and thunderstorms with its passage on the 15th.   Right now most the models show the cold front will have pushed into NC and the Deep South by Sunday May 16.   If so that it looks like Sunday will be pretty nice day especially over the northern half of the state.    I still have some concern that the front is going to hang up across the southern half of the commonwealth Saturday night into Sunday…. So there is a decent risk that the forecast for Sunday which right now look pretty good for the southern half of Virginia might be considerably wetter.

MAY 21-22-23

The weather models are definitely showing the change the pattern developing in WEEK 2.   The weather models are moving the persistent ridge over the southeast coast West…into the Plains and Rockies …starting MAY 15.    This in turn will force some sort of trough to develop over the eastern Third of the US and especially over the East coast. As a result temperatures for the weekend of MAY 21-22-23 will likely run below normal   . It is possible that we could also see some sort of coastal Low development as well along the SE or Middle Atlantic coastal areas .   If this does happen then the weekend of MAY 21-22-23 could turn out to be pretty wet.