MIDWEST / NORTHEAST WINTER STORM 28-30 DECEMBER 2012

Posted by wxrisk | WINTER 2012 -13 | Sunday 29 December 2013 11:35 pm

        

 

 

This December 30 event first appeared on my radar screen back on December 21-22… But there even some hints of this system before hand. I am doing things a little differently this winter in an attempt to finesse my skills in detecting significant winter weather events beyond 7 days and so far there been 2 significant events– the DEC 20-22 Midwest winter storm and the just ended December 25-26 event… which I detected over 12 days before they actually developed. In fact my first post on the potential for significant eastern U.S. winter storm for DECEMBER 25-26 was first made back on December 7.

Each particular event has certain characteristics which a meteorologist must take a look at and consider as he / she makes a forecast for the client or the general public. For example with a recently just ended DEC 26-27 winter storm… the DOMINATING characteristic was that the main or primary LOW would track into Tennessee and perhaps southeastern Kentucky as a fairly strong system. And that in turn would dislodge the cold air over the northeast U.S. and force the precipitation to change to rain pretty quickly.

In this upcoming situation for December 29-30 things are of course… vastly different.

  • This Low is not going to be nearly as strong and the initial stages as the DEC 25-26 Low.
  • This is going to be a pretty fast moving system so the actual interval of moderate or significant precipitation is not going to last that long and it is imperative that one does not over forecast too much snow.
  • This Low IS going to BOMB OUT southeast of Cape Cod and it’s probable that much of southeastern Massachusetts could see over 12″ of snow from this system.
  • Over all of central and south central Virginia the low level temperatures near the ground will be too warm to support ALL snow what the START of the event.

 

This particular aspect of this Low I have been talking about for the past three or four days— that even though the Middle and Upper levels of the atmosphere will be cold enough for all snow in the Richmond metro area… the temperatures in the last 2000 feet near the ground may be above 32 degrees F. As a result I think that the precipitation at least for the first half of the event over the Richmond metro area will be rain and snow mixed which to most people will probably appear as all rain . Then as the Low pressure area moves off the Virginia Coast and the cold air comes at the surface the precipitation hands as snow .

The one thing that could change this and make it colder and snowy are for the Richmond metro area would be for the precipitation that come down harder / heavier which would pull down enough cold air to the surface so that the precipitation would fall as snow even at the ground level. That is a possibility although it is NOT a likelihood at this point.

The short range model data clearly shows a significant band of moderate precipitation running from Tennessee and southeastern Kentucky into southwestern Virginia up through the Roanoke Lexington area and into much of eastern portions of West Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley. I suspect this area will see the best snow because they also have the coldest low level temperatures.

If you cannot find your location on this map PLEASE go back High school OR please stop reproducing… and give up your right to vote.

The one area that could see the least snow …or the biggest BUST in the northeast would be northern NJ and New York City. And the area that might be the biggest winner with this snow would be Eastern Long Island Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts including martha’s vineyard Cape Cod and probably Boston

 

 

 

MIDWEST WINTER STORM 18-20 DEC, 2012

Posted by wxrisk | WINTER 2012 -13 | Thursday 19 December 2013 3:31 am

          

 

 

PROBABILITY TABLES FOR MARCH 24-25 MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,WINTER 2012 -13 | Thursday 21 March 2013 8:58 pm

 

 

 

ISSUED    1915  HOURS  EDT   22 MARCH   2013

        

ISSUED   1900  HRS  EDT    21 MARCH   2013


         

 


 

 

 

ISSUED  2000  HRS    20 MARCH 2013

 

                   

 

 

SNOW PROBABILITIES FOR MARCH 6-7 EAST COAST STORM

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,WINTER 2012 -13 | Monday 4 March 2013 9:55 pm

 BASED   ON 12Z      MARCH   4    MODEL DATA   CLICK  ON THE   IMAGES  TO SEE   FULL SIZE…  

 

                                


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BASED   ON 12Z      MARCH   3    MODEL DATA   CLICK  ON THE   IMAGES  TO SEE   FULL SIZE…  


                      

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BASED   ON 12Z      MARCH 2    MODEL DATA   CLICK  ON THE   IMAGES  TO SEE   FULL SIZE…  

                        

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CLICK  ON THE   IMAGES  TO SEE   FULL SIZE…  

NEXT  UPDATED BASED  ON 0Z   MARCH  MODEL DATA  WILL  BE AT  0900  MARCH 2  EST  

             

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 


MARCH 1-3 1980

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,WINTER 2012 -13 | Thursday 28 February 2013 8:52 pm

 

 

 



 

 




 

 

NORTHEAST US SNOWSTORMS AND THE WEEKEND

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,WINTER 2012 -13 | Friday 15 February 2013 2:12 pm

SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR FEB 8 – 9 MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,WINTER 2012 -13 | Friday 8 February 2013 2:56 pm

  0900 EST   8 FEB 2013   

There are few changes to make in the last minute forecast but nothing major. It is obvious that last night’s stunning 0z NAM that dropped a stunning amount of snow — 40″ in the suburbs of New York City the lower Hudson Valley and northeastern New Jersey….. was 100% bullshit. I suggest that you say that snowfall image and use it for your desktop background because you’re not likely to see anything like that again from the weather model over the northeast for a long time to come.
Indeed the updated version of the NAM.. the 6Z nam – shows the reality the situation which you can see from the radar itself this morning. This image shows how all the heavy precipitation is going to be confined to New Jersey and southeastern New York State all points eastward.    And    the  6Z SNOW MAP   show major changes from the0z NAM snow map
          

 

 

 

It shows what I have been talking about for several days !!! — that the northwest flank of this system is going to screw somebody out of the big snowstorm. This means if you are located in NORTHWEST NJ and / or eastern and northeastern Pennsylvania there is going to be a amazingly tight snow gradient over this portion of the northeast. This is the one portion of the snow forecast I am most concerned about .
I have the heavy snow area 8 to 12″ up against the Pennsylvania New Jersey State line. It may extend into Allentown and Wilkes burr Scranton. It may not…. It’s going to be very close to the Pennsylvania Maryland border.
This is supported by the 0z RPM from last night AND the HRRR Model– – HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID RESPONSE Model which shows over the next 15 hours a very tight snow gradient along at or close to the Pennsylvania and New Jersey State line.

RPM                                                          HRRR  

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


THIS WEEK IN WEATHER JAN 20 , 2013

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,WINTER 2012 -13 | Sunday 20 January 2013 10:39 pm

20 JAN,  2013

 

POSSIBLE NC VA WINTER STORM JAN 2-3-4

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,WINTER 2012 -13 | Saturday 29 December 2012 1:09 am

2305   HOURS   28  DEC  2012

 

DECEMBER 27-28, 2012

Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,WINTER 2012 -13 | Friday 28 December 2012 1:05 am

 

 2145   EST      27 DEC  2012
 
 
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCCzf9ArDOM
   
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