|
ENERGY The WxRisk Energy Page is a new product that I recently have started since WxRisk is doing so much ENERGY business these days. This PAGE IS A SAMPLE PAGE. To reach the WXRISK DAILY ENERGY/... you will have to email me at energy@wxrisk.com and ask for site access. At the Bottom of the page is the Rgional Map of the North American Electric Reliability Council. It shows the 10 area regional breakdown of the Power Grid across North America. The 8 day Temperature forecasts are based on a variety of sources and is far superior to anything similar product out there. Most temperature forecasts, which as so important to large and small Utilities, Traders, Brokers and Planners, are based either exclusively on the MRF -MOS product (which is a wretched and nearly useless temperature product) or the new and improved MAV. WxRisk Temperature forecast also temperatures derived from the ECMWF Model (wxrisk may be the only source in America that uses the ECMWF model is this manner), as well extrapolated Korean Model and the MRF ensemble mean Temp forecast. This product is updated by 8 AM Monday through Friday and Sunday evening. *** SAMPLE ****
MODEL INSIGHT -- FOR METEOROLOGISTS The April 4 OPMRF is useless beyond Day 7. 100% bogus. If you use it you will get burned. How do I know this? For one the OPMRF has a known bias of overdoing the phasing of the streams and overwhelming the eastern US with cold air. It is the primary reason why the OPMRF does so badly with East coast Lows and Noreasters--- that model is almost always forcing Low off the SE coast of the US and out to seas and rarely catches on until 4 -5 days before the event --if then. In this particular case the OPMRF develops a deep 500 low in the Gulf of Alaska Day 8 thru Day 10 which drives the ridge into western Canada where a split flow +PNA pattern develops and cold air-- indeed arctic cold pours southward. Second there
is NO support for this scenario at all. NONE 17 Canadian models offer this solution
and only 2 of the 12 MRF ensembles have the big trough in the eastern US idea nor
does the Day 10 Ecmwf support the Big trough in the East idea in any way shape
for form. Don't' use the APRIL 4 OPMRF.!
*** SAMPLE ***
Some of the temperature forecast below have various levels of certainly or confidence in them. This is important especially in the colder months from November 1 to April 15 when the position of various weather features can cause a wide swing in temperatures within a small area. To communicate this uncertainty WXRISK uses 3 levels.
RISKY... NORMAL and CONFIDENT. Thus a "B" forecast (for Below Normal) for a particular location may have a Yellow Background in that cell if there is a good deal of model/data uncertainty--perhaps there is a front or large weather system near the location. *** SAMPLE ***
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| Email without
order form: wxrisk@comcast.net Copyright © [Windsong Forecasts 2001]. All rights reserved. E-commerce and Credit card transaction billed to Windsong Forecasts Revised: January 19, 2007. |
 |
DO NOT
LIKE THIS MODEL/S SOLUTION
UNCERTAIN
PREFERRED