PROBABILITY TABLES FOR MARCH 24-25 MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW

wxrisk — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 20:58:43 +0000

ISSUED 1915 HOURS EDT 22 MARCH 2013

ISSUED 1900 HRS EDT 21 MARCH 2013

ISSUED 2000 HRS 20 MARCH 2013

SPRING FORECAST 2013

wxrisk — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 00:08:48 +0000

SPRING FORECAST 2013

SNOW PROBABILITIES FOR MARCH 6-7 EAST COAST STORM

wxrisk — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 21:55:48 +0000

BASED ON 12Z MARCH 4 MODEL DATA CLICK ON THE IMAGES TO SEE FULL SIZE…

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BASED ON 12Z MARCH 3 MODEL DATA CLICK ON THE IMAGES TO SEE FULL SIZE…

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BASED ON 12Z MARCH 2 MODEL DATA CLICK ON THE IMAGES TO SEE FULL SIZE…

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CLICK ON THE IMAGES TO SEE FULL SIZE…

NEXT UPDATED BASED ON 0Z MARCH MODEL DATA WILL BE AT 0900 MARCH 2 EST

MARCH 1-3 1980

wxrisk — Thu, 28 Feb 2013 20:52:39 +0000

NORTHEAST US SNOWSTORMS AND THE WEEKEND

wxrisk — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 14:12:49 +0000

SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR FEB 8 – 9 MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM

wxrisk — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 14:56:21 +0000

0900 EST 8 FEB 2013

There are few changes to make in the last minute forecast but nothing major. It is obvious that last night’s stunning 0z NAM that dropped a stunning amount of snow — 40″ in the suburbs of New York City the lower Hudson Valley and northeastern New Jersey….. was 100% bullshit. I suggest that you say that snowfall image and use it for your desktop background because you’re not likely to see anything like that again from the weather model over the northeast for a long time to come.
Indeed the updated version of the NAM.. the 6Z nam – shows the reality the situation which you can see from the radar itself this morning. This image shows how all the heavy precipitation is going to be confined to New Jersey and southeastern New York State all points eastward. And the 6Z SNOW MAP show major changes from the0z NAM snow map

It shows what I have been talking about for several days !!! — that the northwest flank of this system is going to screw somebody out of the big snowstorm. This means if you are located in NORTHWEST NJ and / or eastern and northeastern Pennsylvania there is going to be a amazingly tight snow gradient over this portion of the northeast. This is the one portion of the snow forecast I am most concerned about .
I have the heavy snow area 8 to 12″ up against the Pennsylvania New Jersey State line. It may extend into Allentown and Wilkes burr Scranton. It may not…. It’s going to be very close to the Pennsylvania Maryland border.
This is supported by the 0z RPM from last night AND the HRRR Model– – HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID RESPONSE Model which shows over the next 15 hours a very tight snow gradient along at or close to the Pennsylvania and New Jersey State line.

RPM HRRR

THE COMING WARM SPELL FOR EASTERN US JAN 8-15

wxrisk — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 17:27:49 +0000

JAN 4, 2013

WEATHER ALERT TABLE – 2 FEB 2013

wxrisk — Sat, 02 Feb 2013 23:54:20 +0000

*** CLICK TO ENLARGE ALL IMAGES ***

THIS WEEK IN WEATHER 28, 2013

wxrisk — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 17:42:48 +0000

28 JAN, 2013

THIS WEEK IN WEATHER JAN 20 , 2013

wxrisk — Sun, 20 Jan 2013 22:39:39 +0000

20 JAN, 2013