HURRICANE  FORECASTS  & DISCUSSION    2004    click     HERE

REVIEW OF  ALL OF WXRISK   ISABEL FORECASTS   HERE            ANALYSIS:     FORECAST   DISCUSSIONS   issued     830 AM  EDT...      AND  730PM    (ONCE a   TC crosses   60 W Longitude... there is a Midday update)         

  6PM TUESDAY AUG 29
   for some reason the hurricane Center appears to be surprised that during the day Ernesto did not undergo any sort of significant intensification... but as I said here yesterday this lack on intensification really should not be a surprise. In order for tropical system to undergo the sort of ordinary development one might expect with the system moving through the very warm waters of the Florida Straits you have to have some sore low-level organized circulation center and the fact is that the guts of this system got ripped up with its prolonged track over southeastern Cuba. So instead of intensifying Ernesto is just trying to rebuild its core as it tracks over the Florida Straits... with the result it will only be a ordinary insignificant tropical storm when it makes land fall in southeastern Florida tomorrow.

I have no changes for the track into North Carolina and eastern Virginia... the large high over southeastern Canada will provide a significant pressure gradient for Northeast and allow a system to have a fairly strong Wind field along northern Atlantic and southeast New England coastal areas. However this is really not going to be a significant tropical East Coast event for anybody. Despite the media hype and hysteria a weak category one hurricane over southeastern North Carolina is simply not a big deal. It is good however for TV ratings.

      
  7AM TUESDAY AUG 29
Ernesto finally cleared the north coast south eastern Cuba this morning around 3- 4 am EDT... and I have to tell you that this system looks like crap. I am not even sure it still is a tropical organized system at this point. There has been a general increase in overall connection so I supposed one could still make the case that there is a close to system now entering the Florida Straits but it the idea that Ernesto might rebuild to hurricane status even a week to category one at this point time looks to be BOGUS.
As for the rest of the forecasts are really do not had any changes. It seems to me that Ernesto has a good chance of reaching a minimal category one hurricane before making land fall near Wilmington North Carolina in two days. Don't be surprised if by the time Ernesto is off the southeast North Carolina coast the system looks the best that it has since it was born!

   5PM MONDAY AUG 28
well everything that I talked about in my earlier discussions has pretty much occurred during the daytime hours. Ernesto is essentially none significant system with the entire low-level structure now exposed and devoid of any sort of convection with the LLC over southeastern Cuba . Even worse the center is drifting and has ended its steady Northwest movement... if anything the LLC -- low level center-- is drifting WNW. Not surprisingly some of the hurricane models which earlier were forecasting significant intensification when Ernesto cost over into the Florida Straits now backed WAY off that idea. I do not have a problem issuing the hurricane watch for southern Florida but the issuance of the hurricane warnings in my opinion is not needed...

I'm glad to see that the hurricane Center is finally backed off the talk of Ernesto possibly reaching category 2/3 status before making land fall again in southeastern Florida. That is simply not going to happen and anybody who asserts it is really should shut up and stop talking about weather.

The next question has to do with what happens with Ernesto when he leaves the southeast Florida and moves out into the coastal waters off of Northern Florida Georgia and South Carolina. This will be the best chance for the system to reached hurricane status again and it also follows the seasonal trends all of the 2006 hurricane season... which so far has been highly centered on the idea that systems within the topics have trouble developing by systems which moved north of 20-25N latitude... develop fairly quickly. This looks to me to be a classic East Coast borderline hurricane tropical storm situation with a second land fall probably close to Wilmington North Carolina and thru either central / or eastern Virginia.

Down the road the readl issue is going to be what Ernesto does inland over eastern NC/ sotueast VA... does he turn northwest into western Pennsylvania or turn Northeast and parallel the northeast Coast. ? There is a third solution of course which is being somewhat overlooked... the system fragments .... with part of it gettiong absorbed by the next eastern US trough ... while the convection and heavy rain stays on the Coast.
 

   6AM EDT MONDAY AUG 28

Well I have to tell you I was not really happy with the TPC discussion from the hurricane Center this morning regarding the possible developments and tracks of Ernesto. First the system is clearly a tropical storm but it is also a damaged one and the low-level center not looking very healthy. The convective bursts seem to be all on one side of the system. Second while there is considerably more hurricane model agreement with the track Ernesto Paul southeastern Cuba for the Florida Straits and into southeastern Florida the overall hurricane intensity forecast seemed to be to be way overdone. The official forecast does not call for any intensification above a category 1 hurricane when he crosses over into the Florida Straits but I find this to be a dubious proposition as well. Most of the hurricane models are forecasting a much stronger system with Ernesto possibly reaching borderline category 2/3 status as the nearest southeastern Florida. So what has happened is the hurricane Center has taken a compromise between the very weak and ragged system we currently have and the very strong hurricane model intensification that is being forecasted they come up with a category one hurricane. On top that we still do not yet know how long Ernesto is going to be over Cuba and what sort of shape he will be when he comes off.

Thus we are faced with two very risky / uncertain propositions which 1) a fairly short interval over southeastern Cuba and 2) Ernesto will still be a well organized system that moves into the Florida Straits... allowing for at least SOME intensification before making land fall in southeast Florida.

   8PM SUNDAY AUG 27

 During the daytime hours are nest oh which was a minimal hurricane turned to the Northwest a little that and as a result its close proximity to the southwest peninsula of Haiti during the afternoon and the MSLP rose to 1004 MB. By any scale that you wish to use Ernesto is a significantly weaker system that is in deep trouble and rapidly falling apart. The 5 pm. Advisory from TPC asserts that there is a window of opportunity where are Ernesto might reach strengthen again before making land fall over southeastern Cuba but I do not see that as a significant threat or probability or even a reasonable chance at this point. The best that the system can reasonably expect is to hold its current strength without weakening any further.

The track towards the Northwest and then turn north continues and all of this stems from the fact that the low-level center of the system shifted dramatically to the north overnight and the system reached hurricane strength this morning. It is pretty clear now that Ernesto is going to pass north and east of the north side of Jamaica. The real question is what sort trajectory will this system develop as it crosses southeastern Cuba.

The odds are very strong that this is not going to be a significant system for any portion of Florida despite the media hysteria which is sweeping the country and many of the meteorological weather which are filled with all sorts of mass hysteria and pathetic weenie-ism.

If Ernesto continues on a WNW / NW track he would likely spend a considerable amount of time over southeastern Cuba and as result fall apart even further. While this does place is system closer to southern Florida... the prolonged interval over southeastern Cuba ensures that the system will only have a short interval of time over the Florida Straits before it makes land fall in the southern tip of Florida... and therefore a short window all opportunity to strengthen. In this particular scenario Ernesto would probably only build back to a strong TS stsus and NOT make Hurricane status.

On the other hand Ernesto continues to make a sharp Northwest track and then turn more to the North... this would allow for much shorter interval over eastern Cuba and the system would reach the very warm waters off the southwest Bahamas much sooner. Ergo we would have a more organized system that could intensify much faster... however in this scenario the system is likely to pass well EAST of southern Florida and in fact would probably miss the East Coast entirely because Ernesto will have already turned early to the north... which dramatically increases the probability of a sharp recurve.

  8AM    SUNDAY   AUG  27

  There Is not a lot to change here in my Sunday morning update from the thinking I posted on Saturday evening. Ernesto now a minimal hurricane is clearly in much better shape than it was just 12 and 24 hours ago as the large upper level Low which was over Jamaica and central Cuba is now moving towards the Central America Coast.

The issue still remains where are Ernesto was going to pass with regard to Jamaica. Most of the hurricane models here at 6Z and 12Z show a track across the south side of Cuba for considerable period of time and then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a turn towards the big bend of Florida or the Florida Panhandle.

In a general sense I do not have particular problem with this idea/ track but I am not yet convinced that it's going to pass north of Jamaica. Let us see what the TPC says on their 11 AM advisory as to what the current heading is . Not am I at all convinced that it's going to pass along a significant portion of Cuba although Ernesto will be affected by the close proximity. Still I think much of the core of Ernesto could pass between Jamaica and Cuba and this would mean only a very brief passage across the Western tip of Cuba.

I continue to be amazed at how the first tropical cyclone rule is once again asserting itself. Go back and take a look at the first system of the season Alberto and you'll see a track amazingly similar to lower saying with Ernesto and the close to itself the tropical cyclone named Beryl -- well it is just a thing of beauty to see. Of course I have to emphasize again that this first tropical cyclone of the season RULE does not always work in every single hurricane season. But clearly is working this hurricane season.

   8PM    SATURDAY
   The reformation of the low-level center (LLC) of Ernesto this evening has thrown most of the hurricane model guidance and forecasts into the crapper and this is also true with my forecast. I made it clear that from the get go that IMO Ernesto was going to be a Hurricane passing through the Yucatán Channel and make Landfall somewhere in the Upper Texas coast or perhaps into Southwest Louisiana. That idea/ forecast was based upon the idea that Ernesto was going to pass close to or just south of Jamaica and therefore make a W-I-D-E-R or slower turn as the shortwave comes through the Lower Plains and Mississippi Valley and erodes the western side of the High-pressure Ridge over the southeastern US.

Clearly however with the center reforming this evening and apparently to the north or northeast of where the LLC had been... ALL of Model tracks and forecasts are shifted correspondingly to the north and this increases the probability that Ernesto is going to pass north of Jamaica.

Therefore the first critical benchmark in this storm is going to be Jamaica and whether or not Ernesto -- likely to be a hurricane by Sunday morning-- passes north or south love that island.

I suspect that come 11 p.m. this evening the hurricane Center is going to show he even further north track with Ernesto taking him over a significant portion of at least western Cuba and then a much sharper turn over Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This of course would spare Texas coast as well as most of Louisiana and the heart of the natural gas platforms in the north central and Northwestern Gulf... and will increase the concern and media coverage for the western side of Florida including Florida Panhandle.

Sometimes focusing on the latest run of the hurricane models as a group or a individual run of the GFDL or Euro is useful. In ERNESTO's case it is NOT.... it is a complete waste of time... because the center has been reforming and jumping to the NE. Moore over many of the hurricane models are run off the operational GFS and as of this writing Saturday evening the last 14 lines of the GFS has shown no significant system beyond 36 hours. Every single run of the last 14 GFS models as a shown Ernesto either dissipating or becoming an open wave and yet here we are with Ernesto strengthening in what has been a fairly hostile environment ...which is now only beginning to improve slowly. And still the operational GFS has no clue that Ernesto is going to survive past the next 36 hours.

the 18z Sat & 0z Sunday Hurricane models model DO shift the tracks all North-- which of course means that Ernesto would cut across More of Cuba and sharper turn to the N then NE... over the eastern Gulf. But again as I stated above this is all based upon the idea that Ernesto is going to take a more Northwest were track because the center has reformed to the north and east. My point is that we dont know that.... it is entirely possible that he will resume his 285-290 heading overnight and Sunday.

Thus with the models being so whacky one way of getting around this is to use the DT amazing BENCH MARK system... SYNOPTICALLY we know what IS going to happen in a GENERAL sense...

Tthe western side of the large ridge over the SE states will weaken... and this will allow for Ernesto to turn to the NW then N sooner ... and thus Ernesto will track into and through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

USING the BENCHMARK system we can develop a couple of different scenarios which will tell us How fast and when this turn is going to occur.... the 1ST BENCHMARK will be the island of JAMAICA ...

CONCEPTUALLY...keeping the overall synoptic pattern in your mind.... you can see how this works... IF Ernesto passes over or south of that Island then we are looking at a wider turn.... with Ernesto much more likely to pass thru the Yucatan channel and making a WIDER more gradual turn into the western / central Gulf... ergo bad news for New Orleans and NAT Gas.

IF Ernesto passes NORTH of that Island then we are looking at a SHARPER turn.... with Ernesto passing thru the WESTERN Cuba .... which of course means a weaker system and it means the western side of the High is weaker so a turn to the N then NE over the eastern Gulf would seems to be a better bet
 

  1PM  SATURDAY   AUG 26

The Midday   SAT  run of the  operational   GFS ( hereafter called  op- GFS)    shows something that is    not only   whacky  but    very unlikely.    It    loses   the   TC  of course after  48 hours   but the   GFS has been doing that  over the past  3  days   with  every   single  run anyway.      This time   the Model for some reason LOSES  the   Big Ridge over the  SE states  in less than  48 hours    and    shifts it  across  eastern Cuba  by   60 hours!!!!    from there  the model takes a weaken system into the   south or  sw side of  Florida.  

 Let me be clear    -- that solution is 1000%   CRAP  and  the  the 12z GFS is flat out wrong and is NOT repeat NOT worthy of any consideration.     The idea of ERNESTO   is  going to  cross  Cuba  in  60 hours then into south FL is based on 2 critical issues..

 First the 12z GFS has NO ridge over the SE states ... why the  run of the model  which has showed   this  ridge   before....  now has such a violent change on this run I dont know but its wrong... and   this  idea   has no other support for  any of the other  models.  Second b/c there is No Ridge the 12z  Saturday  op-model has Ernesto over the north side of eastern Cuba in 60 hrs...
 

If YOU think Ernesto ... which is still slowing  down.. is going to be North of eastern Cuba in 60 hrs you need to find to seek a  betetr understanding  of   how weather  works. 
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_85v_060m.gif[

  Moreover  over the last 14 runs of the op-GFS have ONLY showed dissipation   of  the   TC....   thus when a Model that has been nothing BUT wrong  with   regard to  Ernesto ... is now showing a meteorological impossibility I dont need to wait for a few more runs to  decide this idea is crap

   3AM   SATURDAY     AUG 26

    Major   changes in the  MR     weather models   show  ERNESTO  possible impact  in North central   and / or  NE   GULF   late next week

FOLKS

I am taking a BIG step backwards from my idea of a TX hit ...  but not giving up on the idea    completely --and shifting   the     possible  window   of landfall as it were.... to the  north  central Gulf  coast as ell as the    NE  Gulf coast ...... ( Fl Panhandle).
However I still  do NOT  Ernesto  making any landfall on the   West side of the Florida Peninsula.


Consider the 1st TC of the season 'RULE' ...     read about it  HERE. This  Year  the " A" storm  (ALBERTO) which developed in the SE Gulf... crossed N FL then scooted off the se US coast.... the B storm ( BERYL) did SORT of the same thing  as it formed   off the  SE coast   and paralleled    that  coast until  it turned out to sea.....
 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2006/ALBERTO/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2006/BERYL/track.gif

Now we MIGHT Have the same thing setting up for ERNESTO...

if  we assume on 72 hrs Ernesto is somewhere in the NW Caribbean he will be undergoing rapid intensification with that huge  RIDGE in the Jet stream over Gulf .... a classic case of DIVERGENCE ALOFT -a.k.a.   "ventilation"...
  This map    depicts the  operational GFS  at Middle layers of the atmosphere    with ERNESTO   clearly  seen nearing the Yucatan  Channel   http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_096s.gif

  500 MB at 84 hrs
 Note as the HUGE ridge builds in s central Canada and brings on several days of temps in M 90s which is near record that for late august in that part of the world   a    strong  short  wave (s/w ) is  located over the central Plains. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_084s.gif

 By 108   the 0z   GFS    closes this    feature off into a  ULL-- Upper Level low -- over the Midwest http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_084s.gif

note the HIGH   or  Ridge  is  STILL over FL and SE at 300 MB ...   but the western flank of the Ridge is   being worn
away but the  winds over the central GULF are  all S to N....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_300_084s.gif

CRITICAL POINT... if the Upper low closes off further to the south -- see the 0z cmc and new 0z SAT euro ... the western side of the HIGH over the SE states will get ripped away and ERNESTO will turn N and even NNE in the central Gulf

If  Ernesto slows even more the Upper Low over the Midwest could be too fat away and he stays on a WNW or NW course into TX 
Indeed the new 0z   SAT  Euro and CMC shows a large HIGH over DAY 6-7 over se Canada and some sort of - GET THIS -- COLD AIR DAMNING set up!!!     with the remains of Ernesto getting  pulled  Northeast into  the SE states as the Upper Low moves slowly east.  With the BIG High over S Quebec    providing  east or NE winds heavy rains develops from the SE states --- GA SC NC VA into much of the Mid Atlantic

I have seen the euro thru Day 9...  and it if is right what a crappy  long  holiday weekend for the East coast to close out the summer....

  11PM WEDNESDAY  AUG 23

FOLKS

On the IPR radio show    THIS WEEK IN THE  TROPICS  --  I talked about this lead wave on the ITCZ which has undergone significant development Monday and   it could   develop  Tuesday...  and . becoming a threat and a more serious one than DEBBY...

The cite from CIRA that uses several parameters to forecast TC development on Monday was at 8% above climno in that part of the s central Atlantic
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/genesis.asp

   IF I had to guess RIGHT NOW... ASSUMING 97L develops which seems to be a good bet....  the system will track WNW and develop once it cross 65 west LONG and clears the north coast of S America.....

next if we assume    ULL -- Upper Level Low  -- over     the    southeast Bahamas and   far eastern  Cuba   slides southwest as forecast towards   central America coast--     the stage  could be set for  Major Hurricane in the  Gulf of  Mexico  Next week...  They  key will be  the   development  by AL of   the global MR models   on  Day 6 and 7   that shows a HUGE 500 mb ridge will be centered over the SE states...

This is a dangerous development..... the position of that HIGH... due N of the the expected track of 97L into the northwest Caribbean would provide an ideal environment   ( divergence aloft  which  is commonly  referred to  as  VENTILATION) .... never  mind that the western Caribbean  region is an ideal climo  area as it is. .
   Speculating even longer term it would SEEM that the central and western Gulf be more at risk ..... given the 500 MB maps at day 7 8 9 on the 12z Euro.... which shows the ridge over or just off the GA coast thus protecting the eastern gulf to some degree... of course we are not that sure of our facts   and there are still many variables to consider... for  example IF the   BIG  Ridge over the  SE  states were to slide  East   then   the  system  COULD  turn    NW  and   N into the central Gulf coast areas..