S.E.C.S.

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THE SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM CHECKLIST (S.E.C.S.C)

A COMPREHENSIVE CHECKLIST FOR DETERMINING THE THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST STORM DEVELOPMENT

S.E.C.S.C. --Significant East Coast Storm Checklist (pronounced SEXY)..is a system developed to determine the potential development of the Nor'easter --either Rain or snow-- INDEPENDENTLY of what any model is or is not saying. The idea for the SECSC checklist came about originally from Meteorologist Glenn Schwartz who at the time was one of the very few On- Camera Meteorologists in the NYC area. He is now at WCAU, the NBC affiliate in my home town Philly. Since 1988 when Glenn developed his proto- SECSC, my version has been re-vamped and whole new aspects have been added. However, I cannot (nor would not) deny credit to him since the basic idea is his.

Of course much of this work is based upon THE definitive study of East coast snowstorms, "Snowstorms of the Northeastern U.S. 1955-1985", published through the AMS and written by Paul Kocin (now of the Weather Channel) and Dr Louis Uccelllini, now director of National Center of Environmental Prediction. many of the maps, especially the snowstorm maps are taken from that fabulous book and with Permission. I know Mr. Kocin is working on a new edition that should be soon.

One of the major changes made to original SECS was that it only applied to Northeastern US Snowstorms. I presumed that Northeastern US snowstorms also included the Middle Atlantic region. Yet there are several instances in the Snowstorm Book where heavy snow only occurred over New England or some the Northeast corridor cities and no significant snow fell over the Middle Atlantic region. In the middle 1990s, when I relocated to ye old Virginny, I looked into this aspect of Northeastern snowstorms a little deeper. Sure enough, a cursory glance at the historical Climatology showed that many of the biggest snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region frequently produced no snow or snowfall under 6 inches over the Northeast.

First lets define the regions. Here the Map This separation into 2 regions were done along the climatological division lines that Kocin and Uccellini used in their book. The western boundary was fairly close to I-81 from near Charlotte North Carolina northeast to near Burlington VT.

Table 1 is a listing of the most of the Major snowstorms of the Northeast U.S. discussed in great detail in the Kocin and Uccellini Book. Some of the storms are excluded and appear on Table 3. A word about the selection of these storms. Kocin and Uccellini used 21 climatological divisions. The bench mark used was 10 inches of snow (25 cm). If an event affected 6 or more of the 21 zones then it was considered with major event. However I would argue that for the Middle Atlantic region the 10 inch (25 cm) benchmark is too high since the Middle Atlantic region receives substantially less seasonal snowfall than the Northeast US. Thus for the Middle Atlantic region I am using an adjusted figure of 6 inches. Empirically, a forecast of 10 or more inches of snow in the Northeast causes a certain level of economic, social and media/political disruption that is similar to reaction in the Middle Atlantic region that a 6 inch forecast often produces.

Table 1; KOCIN SNOWSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEAST US... DOES IT APPLY FOR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC?

Table 2:
SOME OTHER GREAT SNOWSTORMS THAT AFFECTED BOTH THE NORTHEAST & MIDDLE ATLANTIC

TABLE 3
GREAT SNOWSTORMS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION 12 SELECTED POINTS

TABLE 4:
THOSE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SNOWS; WHAT THEY DID IN THE BIG CITIES OF THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR?

CASE STUDIES OF NORTHEAST SNOWSTORMS --JAN 29-31 1966 -- VS. MIDDLE ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM JAN 25-27 1966

MARCH 1980 JAN 25 -27 1966 JAN 29-31 1966

THE CHECKLIST

SR = SHORT RANGE -- T-12 hrs to T-72 hrs. MR = Medium Range --T-72 to T-192 hrs.

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Revised: September 14, 2004.