NEXT  FULL 30 DAY FORECAST  ISSUED  TUESDAY MAY 8....  and every Tuesday!

WXRISK'S     30    DAY  FORECASTS

ANNOUNCING THE FIRST  ROTATING   CONTINUOUS  30 DAY FORECAST!
Primarily for Energy and Grain Traders

Click HERE to see a Sample of the 30 Day forecast

There are  many 30 day weather forecasts out there.. Most of the major  PWSIP/s ( Private Weather Service Information Providers)   issue a  30 Day weather forecast or outlook once a month.  Some of these 30 day forecast/outlooks/ are issued in the Middle of the month (such as the 30 day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center or CPC)   while other 30 day forecasts are issued at the end of the month  (such as those issued by EarthSat ...GWS ) just  to name a few. Now these are good forecasts but they are only produced once a month.

The primary reason for this is twofold.  First the CPC 30 day forecast has historically carried a  lot   of weight. It should as the outstanding scientists at CPC have been on the cutting edge of this new field in forecasting Meteorology for many years. But since they issue their 30 day forecasts once a month... so has  everyone else!   Second  the limitations in computing power meant that the development.... production ...and implementation of  Climate models were rather restricted.

However over the past 5  years there has been a fundamental change in climate models and a huge increase in the quality & accuracy of 30 Day forecasts. There are now so many weather & climate models available and accessible on a frequent basis... that is is now possible to issue 30 Day Forecasts   on a much more frequent basis.

The 30 day WXRISK forecast will be issued WEDNESDAYS and SUNDAY MORNINGS ( twice a week) every week out to 30 days!  My 30 day forecast is geared to the Energy and Grain trading world  and other business or agency that is in a weather sensitive position.  

MY 30 DAY Forecasts are NOT  open for the public. This is a Fee for service WXRISK  product. The TRIAL Period runs  2 weeks.  Fo more information contact me at weatherman@wxrisk.com

Here is a LIST of SOME  of the weather and Climate models  used to WXRISK used in my 30 Day forecast.

ORIGINAL GENERAL SYNOPSIS:

A changing pattern.  Next week... there is a big model dispute about the development of a closed Low at 500 MB over the Ohio valley and/or east coast. Drought conditions are developing East of the Mississippi river over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys so they will need the rain.  The central and Upper Plains have a good chance of seeing MUCH drier conditions developing May 13 -25 as some sort of Omega Block tries to develop.

FIRST  WEEK   MAY  2-8

A =   Temperatures will run below Normal across  the Upper Plains  and northern and central Rockies and some snow is possible over High terrain areas.  The development of a Upper Low at 500 MB will be  Major weather feature across the Western US.  This is shown in the Purple Line -- the Jet stream -- position.

B= EXCESSIVE Rainfall for the weak with the heaviest rain over  NE  SD IA MN  and western WI.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL... again this is due to the Upper level slowly lifting out. Some MT data suggests the rain over MN and the Dakotas wont end until May 8.  This is really bad news for many flooded fields and farmers and ensure no planting and fieldwork will be done through   MAY 10   or 12th.  However for the Winter wheat this is good news.

C=   WARM TEMPS.  Nothing serious for early May ... BUT NOTE  the Middle Atlantic area May 6-8 will cool off as a Large Cool HIGH pressure cuts across the Great Lakes and New England.

D=  Strong eats flow combined with Tropical Wave will bring SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO Florida ..POSSIBLY   Drought smashing rains .

A = The JET stream  (shown in PURPLE) will take on a OMEGA  like  pattern or configuration  with a trough over the West coast and a Trough over the East coast   and the moderately strong ridge over the Plains.  Assuming this is correct then we are looking at a warmer--possible much warmer   and drier overall pattern for the nations midsection which is bad news for the Ohio and Tenn valleys.

B=  The pacific NW Trough  will push inland at least to the Northern Rockies. The trend is supported by the long range GSM  weekly ensemble mean  500 MB pattern dated   April 28 and the new ECMWF 500 MB ensemble at at day 9/10  May 1 and 2.   Expect continued below Normal temps and a rather rainy pattern NORTH of Interstate 80.

C= With the development of the "OMEGA"  like  pattern or configuration    over the Plains... expect a continuation of a drier and warmer pattern. Assuming the 500 MN pattern is  correct... this would be the second week of the Omega so there may be MUCH above normal temps and heat over ND SD MN IA NE MO KS OK  ARK
WI IL IN  as well as a very dry pattern and I see NO substantial rainfall in this area through the week...  which is bad news for the Ohio and Tennessee   valleys.   However there quite a bit of Model data  that suggests that the Pacific NW   trough will push inland and flatten the top of the Plains ridge. If so... then the High Plains ...and possibly the Upper Plains will be wetter than   what I have here.

D=  The possibility is the expansion and intensification of the ridge over the Plains as the Pacific NW trough comes inland and approaches the N. Rockies. I expect to see at least a few runs of the OPMRF showing this scenario but that doesn't mean I think it will occur or that it is likely to occur.  Given the spring pattern and the strength of the Pacific jet stream I find any model depiction of the Plains ridge amplifying  to be bogus. 

A = the approach of a New Eastern Pacific  Trough will bring more rain and cooler temps to the Pacific Northwest. The first trough arrives May 8/9  followed by a deeper strong trough May13-14...  bringing cooler temps and more Rain across Much of the West coast. This second trough looks like it COULD  bring VERY cool temps to Pacific NW and The N. Rockies.   All in all this spring has become a wet one and this trend is clearly going to repeat.  Some of the MRF and GGEM ensembles show the western trough pushing well inland by May 15. 

B=  A moderately strong OMEGA like ridge structure will  develop over the western or central Plains. There is some uncertainty about where  the Ridge at 500 MB will appear but NOT  when.  There is widespread model support over this. This ridge COULD  bring much warmer temps to the Upper Plains --  after all it will be mid May by the time this ridge sets up. But more importantly this Ridge will allow the   Upper Plains  and Upper Mississippi valley to Dry out and that in itself will make it warmer!   

C= The corresponding downstream trough  associated with the Plains ridge will allow some sort of backdoor cold front/ cool air mass to settle in over New England.     This trough will have to be closely watched   May 10-13   for a possible  phase in or meeting with another system  over the Ohio valley or Northeast  ... The  "D"  area below.

D=  Some of the models have been showing the development of a Upper level Low over the Ohio Valley  May 11 - 13 time frame.  The threat of an upper level Low over this portion of the nation is a KEY weather question that has to be answered before any temperature / precipitation forecast can be  given with confidence. The Upper level Low over the Ohio Valley and Northeast is  based on the idea that remains of   the Upper Low in the Upper Plains will ride over the top of the ridge.. . sliding SE and re-amplifying  into a closed system. The 1 MAY OPMRF...  MAY 2 European models  and the last few runs of the Operational Canadian have been jumping on this idea of a closed Low over the Ohio Valley ... but most of the ensembles do NOT support this.  Still the pattern does support this idea  to some degree... and I see the Upper level Low developing  over the East Coast and Not over the Ohio valley.    There are even a few models  that phase in the New England trough/ back door cold front  with the Upper level Low in the Ohio valley into a major East Coast Low.

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