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  SUNDAY MORNING   AUG 20 UPDATE     CAN BE SEEN HERE   next update  9pm   —————————— THURSDAY   AUG 17    UPDATE    CAN BE SEEN HERE  ————- TUESDAY AUG   15    UPDATE    CAN BE SEEN HERE next  update  8pm  WEDNESDAY —————————————– MONDAY  AUG 14  UPDATE      CAN BE […]

  In case you didn’t notice… and by judging from some the reactions you probably have not… a subtropical storm has formed the middle of the Central Atlantic Ocean in the last 12 to 24 hours. While this is a unusual occurrence it’s not completely unheard of. We have seen subtropical storms form in mid […]

 STARDATE  4/16/17   1500  EDT   Here we are  45 days into meteorological Spring and many have notice that the Mid Atlantic region – mainly south of the PA- MD border as well as much of the Tennessee Valley and the Southeastern states have been running drier than normal. In fact the dryness is getting […]

 STARDATE    201702.6   FIRST GUESS  FORECAST MAP After some massive flip flopping by the operational GFS amnd some syb poart permformance by the GFS ensembles on Monday the midday Tuesday data is much strionger on ALL the models. Even the European model which had some of the weakest or lowest snow accumulations turned colder […]

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STARDATE  201612.28   2200  EST          BE SURE TO READ THIS    FIRST      UNDERSTANDING  THE  WXRISK   SNOWSTORM PAGE NEW  MAP WHAT  IS THE  RSI —  REGIONAL SNOWSTORM INDEX?  WHAT IS   THE NESIS   NORTHEAST    SNOWSTORM   INDEX  SCALE      2.    3.      4.      5.   […]

 IF THE  AUDIO DOES NOT   SHOW  UP IN YOUR BROWSER… SMART PHONE…    TABLET etc use this Link which will open up a new Tab and play the  audio.. THEN  come back  to this page  and look at maps !     1      2      3  4   5        6 7     8   […]

WXRISK  WINTER FORECAST  2016-17    SHORT   VERSION  . . . WXRISK WINTER  FORECAST  2016-17   LONG  VERSION 

      STARDATE  201610.04   1055 EDT After viewing the morning hurricane models as well as the European ensembles I am sure that there will be significant changes in language at 11:00 AM from the hurricane center in the discussion about what Matthew might do for the southeast US coastal areas and possibly into […]

stardate 201610.01   BENCHMARK METHOD The benchmark method in hurricane forecasting is a little known but extremely useful technique when there is a great deal of model uncertainty which is the case with hurricane Matthew. The benchmark method uses hurricane models global models and also the climatology. It is based on the idea of building […]