Archive

  In case you didn’t notice… and by judging from some the reactions you probably have not… a subtropical storm has formed the middle of the Central Atlantic Ocean in the last 12 to 24 hours. While this is a unusual occurrence it’s not completely unheard of. We have seen subtropical storms form in mid […]

 STARDATE  4/16/17   1500  EDT   Here we are  45 days into meteorological Spring and many have notice that the Mid Atlantic region – mainly south of the PA- MD border as well as much of the Tennessee Valley and the Southeastern states have been running drier than normal. In fact the dryness is getting […]

 IF THE  AUDIO DOES NOT   SHOW  UP IN YOUR BROWSER… SMART PHONE…    TABLET etc use this Link which will open up a new Tab and play the  audio.. THEN  come back  to this page  and look at maps !     1      2      3  4   5        6 7     8   […]

WXRISK  WINTER FORECAST  2016-17    SHORT   VERSION  . . . WXRISK WINTER  FORECAST  2016-17   LONG  VERSION 

      STARDATE  201610.04   1055 EDT After viewing the morning hurricane models as well as the European ensembles I am sure that there will be significant changes in language at 11:00 AM from the hurricane center in the discussion about what Matthew might do for the southeast US coastal areas and possibly into […]

stardate 201610.01   BENCHMARK METHOD The benchmark method in hurricane forecasting is a little known but extremely useful technique when there is a great deal of model uncertainty which is the case with hurricane Matthew. The benchmark method uses hurricane models global models and also the climatology. It is based on the idea of building […]

STARDATE   201609.  1 There is SOOOOOO much information that offer that I don’t even know where to begin with the tropical storm Hermine. I am not going to detailed overview of Hermine as it develops in the northeast Gulf because end up there are so many places on the Internet where you can get […]

STARDATE  201608.10 I suppose the first question that many are going to ask  is  WHY am I talking about the winter of 2016-17 in the middle of August?  It’s a fair question I suppose.   I am mostly doing this because so far the hurricane season is not been particularly exciting …but also because there is […]

STAR DATE   201605.26     Chief   Engineer’s log   The first image is the Thursday afternoon HWRF hurricane model which shows this weak ass tropical system developing into a strong tropical storm by the time it crashes into the South Carolina coast on Sunday. For those of you that don’t know much about […]