FIRST CALL SNOWSTORM FORECAST MAP FOR MARCH 7-8
STARDATE 201803.6 1230 EST
FIRST CALL MAP / UPDATE ON MARCH 7-8 EAST COAST SNOWSTORM - This easily one of the most challenging forecast in many years that features EXTREME bust Potential for areas such as Philly into central NJ and into NYC western Long Island and sw coastal CT. There are soooooo many variables... such as the position of the Low and how close it is to the NJ coast.. the snow ratio.. and thunder snow .
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1. Keep in mind that from BAL-PHL TTN (trenton)- NYC will NOT feature the standard 10:1 snow ratio. (1 inch of rain= apprx 10" of snow. So if the weather model shwos 14" of snow for say NYC or 10" for Philly will they REALLY see that?
2 But on the other hand many of the short range models clearly shows THUNDERSNOW from Philly to NYC metro areas as well as North NJ and the Leigh Valley into the Catskills
3. Last night (1am Tuesday) ONLY the 0z Tues GFS Model had Low on the coast... which means rain into Philly & NYC. The 0z 3KM and 12km went east with the LOW which is why those models had 12"+ in Philly and 21-24" in NYC. The new 12z TUES operational GFS is still doing this
4. then the 0z Tues EURO came out and it took the Low EAST by 50-75 miles ... so more snow in BAL PHL TRENTON NYC coastal CT and BIG snows into Boston. And the 0z EURO showed that
5. the 12z Tues SHORT RANGE Models have reversed course and now shift the Low's track back tom the WEST taking it to NJ coast!! . As a general Rule having a strong deep LOW on NJ coast =RAIN for NYC all of Long Island & reduced snow for PHL coastal new England & Boston -- ESPECIALLY with No large cold ARCTIC or semi Arctic HIGH pressure are to the north.
Here is the 12z TUES 3km NAM
6 This WEST shift shows up on most other short range models besides the 3km 12z TUES NAM. It shows up on the 12z Rgem... ... the 12km NAM and the HDRSP.
Yet all of these models STILL keep NYC mostly snow... if just barely. Staten island could be rain!!
Suffice to say I am VERY nervous about my forecast for Philly/ Trenton to NYC. I could see NYC getting 3" of slop or 10" of hvy wet snow.. Areas Just to the W...NE... N... NE of Philly Trenton NYC get Slammed