HURRICANE MATTHEW BLOG / PAGE
STARDATE 201610.04 1055 EDT
After viewing the morning hurricane models as well as the European ensembles I am sure that there will be significant changes in language at 11:00 AM from the hurricane center in the discussion about what Matthew might do for the southeast US coastal areas and possibly into New England.
The GFS model as well as the GFS hurricane models all take Matthew west of Hatteras into eastern North Carolina making landfall over Myrtle Beach SC/ Wilmington North Carolina and tracking west of Hatteras and over NORFOLK / Hampton roads on Sunday. This is the track further inland which brings worse conditions into Hampton roads when compared to what the data was showing on Monday It also Places all of Eastern North Carolina on the eastern side of the hurricane which is often the stronger side on East Coast hurricanes.
For Hampton roads however IF hurricane Matthew makes landfall at or close the woman to North Carolina then cuts across Eastern North Carolina this would allow for significant weakening for all of Southeastern Virginia. If this track from the 12z hurricane models were to hold and verify most of Hampton roads would not see hurricane conditions. There might be a few gusts up to hurricane force -- 74 mph th or greater and the coastal areas or out by the ocean but most areas in Hampton roads (where most people live) would probably not see winds over 75 mph in this sort of track. That doesn't mean it would not be bad --just not a disaster.
For Eastern North Carolina however this would be bad and all of the PAMLICO and ALBERMARLE sounds as well as the Outer banks and North Carolina would be significantly impacted
It is still uncertain as to whether not Matthew will reach Southeast and New England. Many of the hurricane models & ENSEMBLES show a BEND to the east taking the system to the Southeast of Cape Cod Mass -- and we can also see that on the early Tuesday morning European ensembles. MORE LATER
STARDATE 201610.03 1155PM
This first image shows the shift in the different hurricane models from 12z MONDAY ( midday) to 18z MONDAY (6pm) to 0z TUESDAY (1130pm MONDAY) . The noticeable bend the track to the NW is being caused by the models are now "SEEING ' the southwest portion of the Bermuda HIGH as somewhat stronger than they did a few days ago. As a result hurricane Matthew bends to the NW for an extended period of time.
This results is a track much closer to the coast and according to the GFS actually on the coast. This trend continues on the new 0Z Tuesday hurricane models. The 2ND IMAGE is from the 18z GFS ensemble ... The 3RD IMAGE shows the new 0z Hurricane Model.. again showing a track right along the coast line
I am currently updating a PowerPoint presentation which I will have a ready for any one to look at by the Tuesday AM. In this presentation I will iscuss the different factors on East Coast hurricanes in a plain easy to understand format. There has been much talk or speculation about whether not this hurricane would be another Isabel or Sandy or even hurricane hazel from October 1954. I will explain why those kinds of hurricane events are NOT what we are likely to see with Matthew as it comes up along the Southeast us coast and possibly into southeastern New England. And we will also feature worse case and best cases for various areas
STARDATE 201610.03 1630 EDT
The Monday Midday operational GFS and European models are in very close agreement with the handling of Matthew --up to 132 hours or about 8:00 PM on Saturday evening October 8. As I stated earlier the operational or regular GFS model ly has hurricane Matthew making landfall at Wilmington NC .. then cutting across eastern NC thru Nags head on the NC outer banks. From their of the model takes the Matthew across far eastern Long Island & southeastern New England.
The midday European model has the same sort of tracK but it keeps Matthew 75 miles off the coast from Georgia up toward Cape Hatteras. The difference is not significant as far as Models goes but with respect to the forecast that 75 miles difference is VERY significant. Given that this is still 5+ days away it is impossible to know which solution is going to be correct at this time. - SEE IMAGE #1
It is after 132 hours of the models differ dramatically. The European model turns Matthew sharply to the East. The European models have been consistent in showing this for the past 5 model runs. The GFS as I discussed above takes takes Matthew into southeastern New England SEE IMAGE 2
Complicating this is the fact that the GFS ensembles strongly support the operational or regular GFS model and the European ensembles strongly support the operational or regular European model.
So the issue then is again how close to the coast does Hurricane Matthew get October 7 - 8 ? --- THEN once it reaches the approximate latitude of Cape Hatteras does Matthew head for far eastern Long Island southeastern New England and Eastern Long Island or does it had east out to sea.?
STARDATE 201610.03 1130 EDT
MORNING UPDATE on Might Hurricane Matthew - based upon the latest data from the recon and from the satellite is pretty clear that the mighty hurricane Matthew has dropped down to a low category 4 hurricane although a case could be made that he is a borderline category 3/ 4 hurricane. The morning model data does not show any more clarity with regard to the two important questions.
JEY POINT During October 5-6 Matthew IS going to turn to the NNW or perhaps NW as it goes around the western periphery of the Bermuda HIGH or western Atlantic ridge. Hurricane Matthew will get pretty close to the coast during this time frame.
*** Whether it strikes the coast of South Carolina / North Carolina depends on how fast is the hurricane moving when it is tracking NNW/ NW AND and the arrival of the upper trough/ surface cold front coming in from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. ****
A faster Fowards speed with Matthew increases the threat to the Southeast US coast getting clipped in some capacity by hurricane Matthew.
A delay in the arrival of the surface cold front increases the threat to the Southeast US coast getting clipped in some capacity by hurricane Matthew.
And yes it is possible that the hurricane could speed up AND the cold front could be delayed in which case the threat to the Southeast US coastal areas would be pretty high.
On top of that their couple different/ unusual combinations and play as well. For example hurricane Matthew could get very close to say North Carolina coast and give the appearance that He is about the cut one across eastern North Carolina and into Southeast Virginia when the cold front finally arrives. This would result in a sharp right hand turn out to sea. We saw this with hurricane Emily back in 1993.
STARDATE 201610.02 1800 EDT
STARDATE 201610.01 2000 EDT
*** ALERT ** 12Z SATURDAY EUROPEANS ( euro) and EURO ENSEMBLES (EPS) -- still has Matthew over far western Haiti then into se Bahamas.
The track of the 12z operational Euro IS closer then the 0z (early SAT am ) run -- But the 12z EURO and Euro EPS models all still shows Strong sharp turn to the northeast at 180 hrs
12Z EURO EPS -- all but 1 of the 51 members show a Miss for eastern NC
STARDATE 201610.01 1249EDT
12z GFS MODEL SHIFTS MATTHEW EAST IN THE ** SHORT TERM **
longer term.. the GFS still Hooks Matthew NNW from OCT 5 to OCT 7 and SOMEHOW the 12z op GFS manages to take Matthew into eastern NC on OCT 8
Over last 24 hours we seen 2 significant changes in the GFS solution. Yes the midday Saturday GFS model still wants to take Matthew into the far eastern areas of North Carolina on October 8 ...impacting Wilmington and the outer banks of North Carolina . BUT The fact is that GFS models back on Wednesday Thursday and Friday had a much faster overall solution with Matthew coming out of the Bahamas and threatening the East Coast.
This slowing by the GFS over the last 24 hours ... is what the European model has been showing for the past three days.
The SECOND change in the GFS model is the one we see here at midday. The new 12z SATURDAY operational GFS model run no longer has Matthew tracking over central and Eastern Jamaica and over Eastern Cuba. The new GFS has the system going for the Windward passage which is the area of water between far Eastern Cuba and Western Haiti. This is very similar to the last six runs / e last three days of the European model.
What is particularly ODD in my view is that the GFS model still manages to bring the MATTHEW into Eastern North Carolina despite these changes. I am very skeptical about the GFS solution although I cannot rule it out. It seems to me that these two shifts in the GFS model in the last 24 hours is a strong indication that eventually the European model solution with a more eastward track is probably going to be correct
STARDATE 201609.30 1800 edt
**** ALERT **** DISASTER LOOMS FOR EASTERN JAMAICA ... eastern Cuba ... possibly western HAITI. ... MATHEW IS BOMBING OUT...
Now category 4 and still bombing out !! This is really terrible news. This time next week there are going to be a lot of people in these areas which will be dead.
Remember that... and remember how lucky you are to live where you do. A little perspective goes a long way Folks .
STARDATE 201609.30 1100 edt
MATTHEW CATEGORY 3 .. first since in the MDR ( Main Development region of Tropical Atlantic) since SANDY... MODELS in much better agreement...
6z GFS ensemble are SLOWER.. which gives Plains trough / SURFACE COLD FRONT more time to reach the Eastern US and turns Matthew out to sea