MIDDAY UPDATE ON FLORENCE WED 9/12/18
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Today I am doing this update on hurricane Florence the old fashioned -- no audio this afternoon no video just a regular ordinary of blog d update.
I will start out by making some assertions or forecasts and then explain why (the reasoning) I am forecasting this .
1 ...keep in mind people that just because the hurricane is not going to impact your area as bad as it looked 12...24.. or 36.. hours ago doesn't mean that Florence is not going to be a extremely powerful and dangerous hurricane for somebody. Also... I am seeing a lot of reports on Twitter from Wilmington North Carolina area on the beaches which are showing a LOT of homes which have not board up and people who have not evacuated. This is really bad and disturbing
2 Yes the south trend is real and all models are showing that. But also the West trend that I have talked about over the past few days has at developed.
3. Florence COULD weaken some as it approaches the Carolina Coast especially by Wilmington then weaken steadily as she drifts southwest down the Carolina Coast to perhaps Savannah Georgia.
4 here is a possibility that the remains of the FLORENCE could get pull up towards the Appalachians into southern Pennsylvania ... western New York State next week. However even if that were to happen much the rain will have already been squeezed out of the system.
5 it looks like Florence is undergoing another eye wall replacement cycle and it is becoming larger--that is to say the EYE is becoming larger. This is also supported by the fact that they have found hurricane force winds almost 100 miles from the center.
The fact that we are entering another eye wall replacement cycle means that the significant intensification of Florence is probably over. At least for the next 24 hours . But beyond that ...conditions become somewhat less than ideal has the hurricane approaches the Carolina Coast. But some of these satellite pictures over the next few days will be quite impressive as Florence approaches the coast. This image shows some of the radar model SIMULATIONS of what Florence will look like as it approaches Wilmington and you can see that the eye of the system was quite large.
This next image shows the current wind shear across the southwest Atlantic -- including the area around and up to the Southeast US coastal areas. As you can see there is significant shear ahead of the system as it approaches the coast and that shear maybe inhibiting the intensification. Between this moderate sheer in around the hurricane and the eye wall replacement cycles the threat or concern that Florence might make category 5 --is in my opinion -over.
Here is the WED morning European model and it doesn't show any significant changes. We can clearly see however is that as the hurricane approaches Wellington it turns to the West and then stalls ...and then begins to drift southwest down the South Carolina Coast -- perhaps reaching the northeast coast of Georgia. The European started showing this yesterday whereas most of the other models which are showing Florence stalling along the Carolina Coast.
UKMET MODEL FROM EARLY WED MORNING
Initially the European solution of drifting Florence southwest down the South Carolina Coast was greeted with a great deal of skepticism and snicker and snide comments but now all the models of doing it.
If we take a look at the morning GFS FV3 - which is the new and improved GFS model that does NOT have the same flaws of regular GFS model has... it also shows the same sort of thing: a stall near Wilmington or Myrtle Beach then a drift to the southwest down the SC coast weakening as it does so.
Here I present the last three runs of the hurricane models and you can clearly see a bend to the WEST -- which is what I was talking out three days ago when nobody else was -- then a drift to the southwest overtime.
The drift to the southwest is not a mistake that just happens to be showing up on ALLLLL of the models. When you see all of the the model data showing the same thing ...they are doing it for reason. You could make the argument that one model has had a bad run... or has some bad data.... but cannot make that argument when all the data is showing the same thing.
SO WHY ALL ALL THE MODELS SHOWING THE STALL AND SOUTHWEST DRIFT ?
It has to do with the enormous trough which develops over the western third of the country and southwest Canada over the next 24 hours. Like I stated in the podcast and in other recent updates this trough is going to cause an enormous ridge to form over the Eastern Conus. Hypothetically if we did not have Florence ....the next 7 to 10 days over the eastern third of the country would feature above and Much above normal temperatures and very little sign of Autumn like conditions.
Now keep in mind folks that when the hurricane stalls along the coast ... it is going to begin to weaken at a pretty steady pace. WHY?
well if in fact Florence does stall along the NC/ SC Coast for more than 24 hours... then it is going to cause the sea surface temperatures to cool off. This process is known as UPWELLING -- a process where the warm waters at the surface can mix with colder waters underneath. This produces cooler ocean water temperatures at the surface and the hurricanes begins the weaken.
But in addition hurricanes are large systems and this is very true with an expanding Hurricane like Florence. This means that she is going to start pulling in air from the Midwest and entraining that cooler drier air non tropical air into the heart of the hurricane. This will cause additional weakening or at least a cap on any chance of intensification as it approaches the Southeast US coast and then drifts down the coast.
Indeed many the weather models show significant weakening of the hurricane once it reaches Wilmington and drifting down the coast. We can see this on the European model ...on the GFS FV2 ... and the British model... and all of the Manchurian models
FINALLY HOW GOOD HAS THE EUROPEAN MODEL BEEN?
one of the charges that its level against rom time to time esspecially by weather weenies who think they know what they are doing because they kniow where to find the GFS model on the Internet or because the chase tornadoes... is that I only use European model and/ or I have a bias towards European model.
Whenever I see that charge being made against me... I know that the person making that charge is moron. It's just that simple.
There are plenty times I have rejected the European model. The fact that they don't know about it is not my problem.
This image shows the consistency of the European model over the past 3 days. As you can see except for one or two model runs it has consistently showed a landfall on the NC/ SC border. If you compare that plot to the regular GFS the differences are huge.
Here is the GFS FV3 plots tracks for Florence over the past three days and as you can see it is also significantly closer to North Carolina South Carolina and almost the same as the European model. This is a very good trend and sign for the future GFS model as the new version continues to take over from the a truly abysmally awful regular GFS model.
Lastly the other thing that I have e tried to stress over the past few days is you simply cannot just look at weather models. You have to a look at the entire pattern and see what the weather models is trying to say.
When the European model began to show would drift southward two days ago ... the question many asked was " what the hell is the European model doing ? It can't be right! " .
That is the wrong perspective. The question that weather hobbyists.. weather weenies and professional meteorologist should have been asking is WHY is the model doing this?" Is it seeing something that other models are not seeing.? "
When that question is asked it becomes obvious what the European was seeing something first.