RIGHT TURN CLYDE !!
STARDATE 201709.16 1700EDT
As a general rule you should never ever give the "all clear sign" for a potential hurricane that is paralleling a populated coast -- in this case the East Coast -- until the tropical cyclone has reached your latitude or further north. And since that has not happen on this Saturday afternoon it is still too early to give the " ALL CLEAR " sign with regard to Jose and any possible impacts on the East Coast. That being said ..I think the threat is significantly diminished and I am quite certain that Jose is going to turn out to sea when he gets to the latitude of Philadelphia - 40° N Latitude. Hurricane JOSE may bring tropical storm force winds to southeastern Massachusetts and the Cape Cod area but outside of that ... all the data tells me that this is going to be a close one but essentially a MISS for the entire East Coast.
This is the 11:00 AM advisory on Jose which I am sure most you have already seen and and read. Based on midday model data there is no reason to dispute this track at all . I am sure the 5:00 PM update will have track very similar.
Jose look pretty healthy and it is clearly a hurricane based on the satellite picture here. As Jose moves further north crosses the Gulf stream and then moves north of the Gulf stream on Sunday and Monday ...it will begin to change its characteristics from being purely tropical to one of these hybrid ocean low tropical systems. This will allow the Wind field to expand somewhat which is probably why there will be tropical storm force winds in southeastern New England on Tuesday and or Wednesday of next week.
If we look at the top 10 analog tracks for hurricanes and tropical storms which are in the same position as Jose on this Saturday midday ...we will see that for 4 of the top 10 analogs do showing a landfall somewhere on the U.S. east coast. But when we look of the actual upper air data we can see why this is not likely to happen.
This next image represents the 500mb from the 12z European model and I have highlighted the key reasons why Jose will parallel the coast and then turn sharply RIGHT and out to sea to the right. On the map at 84 hours we can see a big BLUE " X" that I have drawn in over Missouri and Arkansas. This piece of energy known as a shortwave in the weather business is going to track do east towards Kentucky and Virginia. By 96 hours this feature is over southern Illinois and as it approaches the East Coast it will " KICK" or force Jose to turn sharply to the right and head out into the open Atlantic waters.
This is confirmed by the 12z afternoon GFS model which also has the same piece of energy although but in a somewhat different location at 72 hours over Missouri. By 84 hours this feature is over eastern Missouri and central and southern Illinois and again it is forcing the JOSE to turn sharply to right and head out into the open Atlantic Ocean.
In addition the midday GFS and European ensembles also show a sharp turn to the right. Of the 51 European ensemble members 12 still show a landfall on the U.S. east coast. So while the majority of the European ensemble members take Jose out to sea on Tuesday and Wednesday ..there is a small cluster of members which show a landfall on the Mid Atlantic Coast. Here is the 12z the GFS ensemble and only one member of the 21 showing landfall on the U.S. east coast.
If you look of the midday operational models we see a very strong agreement and the sharp turn to the right next Tuesday and Wednesday. Here is the midday GFS model and we can see at 48 at 60 hours hurricane Jose is going do north at around or very close to the 72° west Longitude line. At 72 and 84 hours which covers Tuesday morning and Tuesday evening Jose is continuing to track to north it around 71 / 72° W Longitude. Of course the operational GFS model continues to show a very intense hurricane and we know that the GFS is been doing this all season so we can simply disregard the intensity of the GFS model. Jose is not going to be below 950mb as it parallels the U.S. East Coast. It will not be a category 3 or 4 hurricane no the matter what the wretched GFS model say.
Finally at 96 hours we can see the sharp turn Wednesday morning on the GFS model taking JOSE due east. Again it looks like it will be be close enough to bring windy conditions and tropical storm force winds to much of southeastern New England but especially over the Cape Cod area.
Here is the Saturday afternoon European model and again we can see the events very similar sort of track with Jose. Tracking due north on the 72 / 73° west Longitude that would seem to taking Jose to eastern Long Island and southeastern New England on Tuesday. But again we can see the strong upper air feature moving through the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday -- this is the big blue "X" feature which I have drawn in over Kansas and then over Missouri and Southern Illinois. This feature acts as a kicker and drives the hurricane Jose sharply to the right between 96 and 120 hours.
Finally lets talk about Maria which is the new tropical storm this afternoon east of the Windwards islands. The official hurricane center track takes it over south of the island of Antigua and then over Puerto Rico and just to the north side of the big island of Hispaniola. The early Saturday morning European model has Maria threatening the East Coast as a significant or major hurricane on at DAY 10 / September 26 with a large area of HIGH pressure over the western land Atlantic blocking it and preventing it from going out sea.
The 12z Saturday afternoon European model does something that is very strange. The 12z Saturday Euro ends up rotating Jose and Maria in this bizzare but fascinating Fujiwara affect. The two tropical systems end up rotating around each other and the European model actually drops Jose southward and then back to the west towards Virginia /Maryland Coast.... while Maria heads out into the Atlantic Ocean. This is fun to look at but the chances of this scenario working out are extremely small.
If we look a the european ensemble overall pattern at Day 10 over North America we see a monster trough over the Rockies ...and the Upper Plains and into south central Canada. Thre is an equally strong ridge or dome centered over the eastern third of the country with the center of the ridge / dome over Virginia North Carolina Tennessee and Kentucky. If this is correct and I believe it will be at Day 10 this sort of pattern would not be favorable for Maria to hit the Middle Atlantic/ New England. It would probably have to go around the edge of the high pressure ridge and parallel the East Coast. BUT if IF Maria were to stay way south and move into the southern Bahamas then the happen the high pressure ridge over Virginia North Carolina Tennessee and Kentucky would force Maria to turn WEST into the southeastern states of Georgia / Florida.